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Carlos García-García

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos García-García.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Blast.jl: Differentiable Non-Limber Power Spectra for Joint Clustering, Shear, and CMB lensing Analyses

Upcoming large-scale structure surveys require accurate theoretical predictions for angular power spectra on the largest angular scales, where the commonly used Limber approximation breaks down and multiple relativistic and observational effects become relevant. At the same time, modern cosmological analyses increasingly rely on gradient-based inference techniques, motivating the development of fast, fully differentiable algorithms. In this work, we present a major extension of Blast.jl, a numerical toolkit for the efficient computation of non-Limber angular power spectra. Building on the Chebyshev-polynomial decomposition of the original framework, the updated algorithm incorporates redshift-space distortions, magnification bias, primordial non-Gaussianity, intrinsic alignments, CMB lensing, and the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect, while remaining fully differentiable through custom automatic differentiation rules. Despite the increased physical complexity, the algorithm retains favorable scaling by precomputing all cosmology-independent quantities. We validate the expanded framework against brute-force integration and established cosmological codes, and provide a detailed analysis of the trade-off between computational speed and precision as a function of the algorithm hyperparameters. We demonstrate the readiness of Blast.jl for gradient-based inference through a simulated likelihood analysis with LSST Y10-like mock data, recovering unbiased cosmological and nuisance parameter constraints from a 35-parameter model using gradient-based samplers.

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Fisher Forecasting for the DESC with $\texttt{Augur}$

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has begun its ten-year survey of the entire visible southern hemisphere. To ensure robust cosmological measurements, computationally inexpensive investigations of modeling choices must be made to gauge the performance of proposed cosmological analyses. In this paper, we introduce the $\texttt{Augur}$ tool of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which provides Fisher forecasts for cosmological inference for the LSST using software frameworks designed for DESC science. We test the pipeline by comparing it to forecasts produced by external code and direct sampling of the posterior via nested sampling methods, finding good agreement between all methods. We additionally investigate a range of modeling and hyperparameter choices for a 3$\times$2pt investigation in harmonic space, providing users with diagnostics to obtain reliable forecasts. $\texttt{Augur}$ will be continually updated to be compatible with the other tools in the DESC software ecosystem as additional probes and functionality become available.

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The Status of Single Scalar Field Dark Energy

We present an assessment of the current observational status of single scalar field models of dark energy. Motivated by recent cosmological measurements -- including baryon acoustic oscillations, Type Ia supernovae, and CMB data -- we examine whether a dynamical scalar field offers a viable explanation for the accelerated expansion of the Universe. Working within an effective field theory (EFT) framework, we argue that cosmological observations are fundamentally limited and can at most constrain a small number of parameters that govern scalar field dynamics. We show that quintessence remains only marginally distinguishable from a cosmological constant, $Λ$, and that more general EFT extensions exhibit modest statistical preference, though such evidence is sensitive to data set selection and prior assumptions. These extended models generically predict fifth forces and modifications to the growth of structure, raising challenges from astrophysical constraints. We compare their predictions with current growth rate measurements, Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect and Solar System constraints. We emphasize that viable screening mechanisms remain theoretically non-trivial and observationally testable. On the other hand, we find that current ISW and growth data remain largely in agreement. Looking ahead to Stage IV surveys we forecast improvements in constraints on the dark energy behaviour; although there will be some tightening of bounds, we argue that the problem of underdetermination will persist. We conclude that while single scalar field dark energy remains a natural and flexible framework, its ultimate viability will hinge on improved low-redshift growth measurements and a clearer understanding of gravitational screening.

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Low-redshift constraints on structure growth from CMB lensing tomography

We present constraints on the amplitude of matter fluctuations from the clustering of galaxies and their cross-correlation with the gravitational lensing convergence of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), focusing on low redshifts ($z\lesssim0.3$), where potential deviations from a perfect cosmological constant dominating the growth of structure could be more prominent. Specifically, we make use of data from the 2MASS photometric survey (\tmpz) and the \wisc galaxy survey, in combination with CMB lensing data from \planck. Using a hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) approach to model galaxy bias we obtain constraints on the combination $S_8=σ_8\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$, where $σ_8$ is the amplitude of matter fluctuations, and $Ω_m$ is the non-relativistic matter fraction. Using a prior on $Ω_m$ based on the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements of DESI, we find $S_8=0.79\pm0.06$, in reasonable agreement with CMB constraints. We also find that, in the absence of this prior, the data favours a value of $Ω_m=0.245\pm0.024$, that is 2.8$σ$ lower than \planck. This result is driven by the broadband shape of the galaxy auto-correlation, and may be affected by theoretical uncertainties in the HEFT power spectrum templates. We further reconstruct the low-redshift growth history, finding it to be compatible with the \planck predictions, as well as existing constraints from lensing tomography. Finally, we study our constraints on the HEFT bias parameters of the galaxy samples studied, finding them to be in reasonable agreement with coevolution predictions.

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Propagating data-driven galaxy redshift distribution uncertainties in 3$\times$2-pt analyses

Uncertainties in the radial distribution of galaxies, $\boldsymbol{n}(\boldsymbol{z})$, are one of the major contributions to the error budget of early Stage-IV galaxy survey analyses of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing (3$\times$2-pt). Based on ensembles of simulated $\boldsymbol{n}(\boldsymbol{z})$ including stochastic and systematic variations, we study the impact of four different $\boldsymbol{n}(\boldsymbol{z})$ uncertainty models: shifts, shifts & stretches, Gaussian processes (GP) and principal component analysis (PCA). Due to the high dimensionality of the latter models, we make use of state-of-the-art gradient-based inference methods as well as approximate analytical marginalisation schemes. Our results show that Stage-IV 3$\times$2-pt analyses must go beyond simple shift & stretch models. In particular, we advocate for the adoption of PCA models even in early Stage-IV surveys. Our results show that considering a five-parameters PCA model only degrades the constraint on the $S_{\rm 8}$ parameter by $5$ per cent with respect to the case when only a shift and a stretch parameter are included, while incurring half the bias in its constituents parameters, $Ω_{\rm m}$ and $σ_{\rm 8}$. We demonstrate that all models considered can be safely marginalised analytically, with speed-ups of up to a factor of 25 depending on the dimensionality of the model. This will allow Stage-IV analyses to safely include higher-dimensional $\boldsymbol{n}(\boldsymbol{z})$ uncertainty models in their analysis at negligible additional computational cost.

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Cosmological constraints on Galileon dark energy with broken shift symmetry

Current cosmological data seem to show that dark energy is evolving in time and that it possibly crossed the phantom divide in the past. So far the only theories that lead to such a behavior involve a non-trivial coupling between dark energy, in the form of a scalar field, and the gravitational or matter sector. We show that there is another possibility involving both a non-trivial kinetic sector in a cubic Galileon theory and a scalar field potential that breaks the Galileon shift symmetry, which can lead to a similar phenomenology on large scales. We perform a full Bayesian analysis using the latest cosmological data, including DESI DR2 BAO measurements, type Ia SNe measurements from DESY5, Union3, and Pantheon+, and CMB data from Planck and ACT. We find that it is statistically strongly favored over a Universe dominated by a cosmological constant (with a Bayes factor of $\log B\simeq 6.5$). Yet, as with other non-minimally coupled theories, it has severe ancillary gravitational effects. These can be mitigated to some extent, but as with other viable theories, the penalty is ever more elaborate scalar field models of dark energy.

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$X+y$: insights on gas thermodynamics from the combination of X-ray and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich data cross-correlated with cosmic shear

We measure the cross-correlation between cosmic shear from the third-year release of the Dark Energy Survey, thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) maps from Planck, and X-ray maps from ROSAT. We investigate the possibility of developing a physical model able to jointly describe both measurements, simultaneously constraining the spatial distribution and thermodynamic properties of hot gas. We find that a relatively simple model is able to describe both sets of measurements and to make reasonably accurate predictions for other observables (the tSZ auto-correlation, its cross-correlation with X-rays, and tomographic measurements of the bias-weighted mean gas pressure). We show, however, that contamination from X-ray AGN, as well as the impact of non-thermal pressure support, must be incorporated in order to fully resolve tensions in parameter space between different data combinations. We obtain simultaneous constraints on the mass scale at which half of the gas content has been expelled from the halo, $\mathrm{log}_{10}(M_c)=14.83^{+0.16}_{-0.23}$, on the polytropic index of the gas, $Γ=1.144^{+0.016}_{-0.013}$, and on the ratio of the central gas temperature to the virial temperature $α_T=1.30^{+0.15}_{-0.28}$.

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Joint tomographic measurement of thermal Sunyaev Zeldovich and the cosmic infrared background

We present a novel method for the tomographic reconstruction of the bias-weighted mean electron pressure $\langle bP_e \rangle$ and star formation rate density $\langle bρ_{\mathrm{SFR}} \rangle$, by simultaneously modelling the contribution from the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect and the Cosmic Infrared Background (CIB) to the cross-correlation between photometric galaxy samples and multi-frequency Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) maps. The resulting measurements are independent of the galaxy clustering properties and robust against cross-contamination between tSZ and CIB. Applying this method to publicly available data, we reconstruct the cosmic evolution of $\langle bP_e \rangle$ and $\langle bρ_{\mathrm{SFR}} \rangle$ out to $z\sim1$, making our measurements publicly available. Our measurements of both quantities are broadly compatible with predictions from the fiducial FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulation, although we observe a lower gas pressure at low redshifts, in agreement with other measurements.

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Assessing cosmological evidence for non-minimal coupling

The recent observational evidence of deviations from the $Λ$-Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model points towards the presence of evolving dark energy. The simplest possibility consists of a cosmological scalar field $φ$, dubbed quintessence, driving the accelerated expansion. We assess the evidence for the existence of such a scalar field. We find that, if the accelerated expansion is driven by quintessence, the data favour a potential energy $V(φ)$ that is concave, i.e., $m^2=d^2V/dφ^2<0$. Furthermore, and more significantly, the data strongly favour a scalar field that is non-minimally coupled to gravity (Bayes factor $\log(B) = 7.34 \pm 0.6$), leading to time variations in the gravitational constant on cosmological scales, and the existence of fifth forces on smaller scales. The fact that we do not observe such fifth forces implies that either new physics must come into play on non-cosmological scales or that quintessence is an unlikely explanation for the observed cosmic acceleration.

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Robustness of dark energy phenomenology across different parameterizations

The recent evidence for dynamical dark energy from DESI, in combination with other cosmological data, has generated significant interest in understanding the nature of dark energy and its underlying microphysics. However, interpreting these results critically depends on how dark energy is parameterized. This paper examines the robustness of conclusions about the viability of particular kinds of dynamical dark energy models to the choice of parameterization, focusing on four popular two-parameter models: the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL), Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP), Barboza-Alcaniz (BA), and exponential (EXP) parameterizations. We find that conclusions regarding the viability of minimally and non-minimally coupled quintessence models are independent of the parameterization adopted. We demonstrate this both by mapping these dark energy models into the $(w_0, w_a)$ parameter space defined by these various parameterizations and by showing that all of these parameterizations can equivalently account for the phenomenology predicted by these dark energy models to a high degree of accuracy.

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Robust cosmic shear with small-scale nulling

Standard cosmological weak lensing analyses using cosmic shear are inevitably sensitive to small-scale, non-linear clustering from low-redshift structures. The need to adequately model the clustering of matter on this non-linear regime, accounting for both gravitational and baryonic effects, adds significant uncertainty to weak lensing studies, particularly in the context of near-future Stage-IV datasets. In this paper, inspired by previous work on so-called ``nulling'' techniques, we present a general method that selects the linear combinations of a given tomographic cosmic shear dataset that are least sensitive to small-scale non-linearities, by essentially suppressing the contribution from low-redshift structures. We apply this method to the latest public cosmic shear data from the Dark Energy Survey, DES-Y3, that corresponds to 3 years of observation, and show: a) that a large fraction of the signal is dominated by the single mode that is most affected by non-linear scales, and b) that removing this mode leads to a $\sim1σ$ upwards shift in the preferred value of $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_M/0.3}$, alleviating the tension with current CMB data. However, the removal of the most contaminated mode also results in a significant increase in the statistical uncertainties. Taking this into account, we find this shift to be compatible with a random fluctuation caused by removing this most-contaminated mode at the $\sim1.4σ$ level. We also show that this technique may be used by future Stage-IV surveys to mitigate the sensitivity of the final constraints to baryonic effects, trading precision for robustness.

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Matching current observational constraints with nonminimally coupled dark energy

We show that a Universe with a nonminimally coupled scalar field can fit current measurements of the expansion rate of the Universe better than the standard $Λ$-Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model or other minimally coupled dark energy models. In particular, the nonminimal coupling in this model allows for the dark energy model to exhibit stable phantom crossing behavior, which seems to be suggested by the constraints on the dark energy equation of state coming from the most recent data. While we find a clear improvement in the goodness of fit for this dark energy model with respect to others that have been considered in the recent literature, using information theoretic criteria, we show that the evidence for it is still inconclusive.

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Scant evidence for thawing quintessence

New constraints on the expansion rate of the Universe seem to favor evolving dark energy in the form of thawing quintessence models, i.e., models for which a canonical, minimally coupled scalar field has, at late times, begun to evolve away from potential energy domination. We scrutinize the evidence for thawing quintessence by exploring what it predicts for the equation of state. We show that, in terms of the usual Chevalier-Polarski-Linder parameters, ($w_0$, $w_a$), thawing quintessence is, in fact, only marginally consistent with a compilation of the current data. Despite this, we embrace the possibility that thawing quintessence is dark energy and find constraints on the microphysics of this scenario. We do so in terms of the effective mass $m^2$ and energy scale $V_0$ of the scalar field potential. We are particularly careful to enforce un-informative, flat priors on these parameters so as to minimize their effect on the final posteriors. While the current data favors a large and negative value of $m^2$, when we compare these models to the standard $Λ$CDM model we find that there is scant evidence for thawing quintessence.

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A 1% accurate method to include baryonic effects in galaxy-galaxy lensing models

Galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing are two of the main observational probes in Stage-IV large-scale structure surveys. Unfortunately, the complicated relationship between galaxies and matter limits the exploitation of this data. Galaxy bias models -- such as the hybrid Lagrangian bias expansion -- allow describing galaxy clustering down to scales as small as $k = 0.7h$/Mpc. However, the galaxy-matter cross-power spectra are already affected by baryons on these scales, directly impacting the modelling of galaxy-galaxy lensing. We propose to extend models of the galaxy-matter cross-power spectrum $P_{\rm gm}(k)$ (currently only accounting for dark matter) by including a baryonic correction inferred from the matter component ($S_{\rm mm}(k)$), so that $P_{\rm gm, full \, physics} (k) = \sqrt{S_{\rm mm}} P_{\rm gm, gravity \, only}$. We use the FLAMINGO simulations to measure the effect of baryons on the galaxy-matter cross-power spectrum and to assess the performance of our model. We perform a Bayesian analysis of synthetic data, implementing a model based on BACCO's hybrid Lagrangian bias expansion (for the nonlinear galaxy bias) and Baryon Correction Model. Ignoring baryons in the galaxy-matter cross-power spectrum leads to a biased inference of the galaxy bias, while ignoring baryons in both the galaxy-matter and matter-matter power spectra leads to a biased inference of both the galaxy bias and cosmological parameters. In contrast, our method is 1% accurate compared to all physics variations in FLAMINGO and on all scales described by hybrid perturbative models ($k < 0.7h$/Mpc). Moreover, our model leads to inferred bias and cosmological parameters compatible within 1$σ$ with their reference values. We anticipate that our method will be a promising candidate for analysing forthcoming Stage-IV survey data.

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$\mathtt{emuflow}$: Normalising Flows for Joint Cosmological Analysis

Given the growth in the variety and precision of astronomical datasets of interest for cosmology, the best cosmological constraints are invariably obtained by combining data from different experiments. At the likelihood level, one complication in doing so is the need to marginalise over large-dimensional parameter models describing the data of each experiment. These include both the relatively small number of cosmological parameters of interest and a large number of "nuisance" parameters. Sampling over the joint parameter space for multiple experiments can thus become a very computationally expensive operation. This can be significantly simplified if one could sample directly from the marginal cosmological posterior distribution of preceding experiments, depending only on the common set of cosmological parameters. In this paper, we show that this can be achieved by emulating marginal posterior distributions via normalising flows. The resulting trained normalising flow models can be used to efficiently combine cosmological constraints from independent datasets without increasing the dimensionality of the parameter space under study. We show that the method is able to accurately describe the posterior distribution of real cosmological datasets, as well as the joint distribution of different datasets, even when significant tension exists between experiments. The resulting joint constraints can be obtained in a fraction of the time it would take to combine the same datasets at the level of their likelihoods. We construct normalising flow models for a set of public cosmological datasets of general interests and make them available, together with the software used to train them, and to exploit them in cosmological parameter inference.

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Cosmic shear with small scales: DES-Y3, KiDS-1000 and HSC-DR1

We present a cosmological analysis of the combination of the DES-Y3, KiDS-1000 and HSC-DR1 weak lensing samples under a joint harmonic-space pipeline making use of angular scales down to $\ell_{\rm max}=4500$, corresponding to significantly smaller scales ($δθ\sim2.4'$) than those commonly used in cosmological weak lensing studies. We are able to do so by accurately modelling non-linearities and the impact of baryonic effects using Baccoemu. We find $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}=0.795^{+0.015}_{-0.017}$, in relatively good agreement with CMB constraints from Planck (less than $\sim1.8σ$ tension), although we obtain a low value of $Ω_{\rm m}=0.212^{+0.017}_{-0.032}$, in tension with Planck at the $\sim3σ$ level. We show that this can be recast as an $H_0$ tension if one parametrises the amplitude of fluctuations and matter abundance in terms of variables without hidden dependence on $H_0$. Furthermore, we find that this tension reduces significantly after including a prior on the distance-redshift relationship from BAO data, without worsening the fit. In terms of baryonic effects, we show that failing to model and marginalise over them on scales $\ell\lesssim2000$ does not significantly affect the posterior constraints for DES-Y3 and KiDS-1000, but has a mild effect on deeper samples, such as HSC-DR1. This is in agreement with our ability to only mildly constrain the parameters of the Baryon Correction Model with these data

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Assessment of Gradient-Based Samplers in Standard Cosmological Likelihoods

We assess the usefulness of gradient-based samplers, such as the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), by comparison with traditional Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, in tomographic $3 \times 2$ point analyses. Specifically, we use the DES Year 1 data and a simulated future LSST-like survey as representative examples of these studies, containing a significant number of nuisance parameters (20 and 32, respectively) that affect the performance of rejection-based samplers. To do so, we implement a differentiable forward model using JAX-COSMO (Campagne et al. 2023), and we use it to derive parameter constraints from both datasets using the NUTS algorithm as implemented in §4, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as implemented in Cobaya (Lewis 2013). When quantified in terms of the number of effective number of samples taken per likelihood evaluation, we find a relative efficiency gain of $\mathcal{O}(10)$ in favour of NUTS. However, this efficiency is reduced to a factor $\sim 2$ when quantified in terms of computational time, since we find the cost of the gradient computation (needed by NUTS) relative to the likelihood to be $\sim 4.5$ times larger for both experiments. We validate these results making use of analytical multi-variate distributions (a multivariate Gaussian and a Rosenbrock distribution) with increasing dimensionality. Based on these results, we conclude that gradient-based samplers such as NUTS can be leveraged to sample high dimensional parameter spaces in Cosmology, although the efficiency improvement is relatively mild for moderate $(\mathcal{O}(50))$ dimension numbers, typical of tomographic large-scale structure analyses.

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Cosmology with 6 parameters in the Stage-IV era: efficient marginalisation over nuisance parameters

The analysis of photometric large-scale structure data is often complicated by the need to account for many observational and astrophysical systematics. The elaborate models needed to describe them often introduce many ``nuisance parameters'', which can be a major inhibitor of an efficient parameter inference. In this paper we introduce an approximate method to analytically marginalise over a large number of nuisance parameters based on the Laplace approximation. We discuss the mathematics of the method, its relation to concepts such as volume effects and profile likelihood, and show that it can be further simplified for calibratable systematics by linearising the dependence of the theory on the associated parameters. We quantify the accuracy of this approach by comparing it with traditional sampling methods in the context of existing data from the Dark Energy Survey, as well as futuristic Stage-IV photometric data. The linearised version of the method is able to obtain parameter constraints that are virtually equivalent to those found by exploring the full parameter space for a large number of calibratable nuisance parameters, while reducing the computation time by a factor 3-10. Furthermore, the non-linearised approach is able to analytically marginalise over a large number of parameters, returning constraints that are virtually indistinguishable from the brute-force method in most cases, accurately reproducing both the marginalised uncertainty on cosmological parameters, and the impact of volume effects associated with this marginalisation. We provide simple recipes to diagnose when the approximations made by the method fail and one should thus resort to traditional methods. The gains in sampling efficiency associated with this method enable the joint analysis of multiple surveys, typically hindered by the large number of nuisance parameters needed to describe them.

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