arXiv subjects

Carlos Riquelme

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos Riquelme.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

On Last-Layer Algorithms for Classification: Decoupling Representation from Uncertainty Estimation

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still require prohibitive computational costs. We propose a family of algorithms which split the classification task into two stages: representation learning and uncertainty estimation. We compare four specific instances, where uncertainty estimation is performed via either an ensemble of Stochastic Gradient Descent or Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics snapshots, an ensemble of bootstrapped logistic regressions, or via a number of Monte Carlo Dropout passes. We evaluate their performance in terms of \emph{selective} classification (risk-coverage), and their ability to detect out-of-distribution samples. Our experiments suggest there is limited value in adding multiple uncertainty layers to deep classifiers, and we observe that these simple methods strongly outperform a vanilla point-estimate SGD in some complex benchmarks like ImageNet.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Practical and Consistent Estimation of f-Divergences

The estimation of an f-divergence between two probability distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Most works study this problem under very weak assumptions, in which case it is provably hard. We consider the case of stronger structural assumptions that are commonly satisfied in modern machine learning, including representation learning and generative modelling with autoencoder architectures. Under these assumptions we propose and study an estimator that can be easily implemented, works well in high dimensions, and enjoys faster rates of convergence. We verify the behavior of our estimator empirically in both synthetic and real-data experiments, and discuss its direct implications for total correlation, entropy, and mutual information estimation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Adaptive Temporal-Difference Learning for Policy Evaluation with Per-State Uncertainty Estimates

We consider the core reinforcement-learning problem of on-policy value function approximation from a batch of trajectory data, and focus on various issues of Temporal Difference (TD) learning and Monte Carlo (MC) policy evaluation. The two methods are known to achieve complementary bias-variance trade-off properties, with TD tending to achieve lower variance but potentially higher bias. In this paper, we argue that the larger bias of TD can be a result of the amplification of local approximation errors. We address this by proposing an algorithm that adaptively switches between TD and MC in each state, thus mitigating the propagation of errors. Our method is based on learned confidence intervals that detect biases of TD estimates. We demonstrate in a variety of policy evaluation tasks that this simple adaptive algorithm performs competitively with the best approach in hindsight, suggesting that learned confidence intervals are a powerful technique for adapting policy evaluation to use TD or MC returns in a data-driven way.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Human Interaction with Recommendation Systems

Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based on this model, we prove that naive estimators, i.e. those which ignore this feedback loop, are not consistent. We show that consistent estimators are efficient in the presence of myopic agents. Our results are validated using extensive simulations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Deep Bayesian Bandits Showdown: An Empirical Comparison of Bayesian Deep Networks for Thompson Sampling

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have made significant strides in performance on applications such as Go and Atari games. However, developing practical methods to balance exploration and exploitation in complex domains remains largely unsolved. Thompson Sampling and its extension to reinforcement learning provide an elegant approach to exploration that only requires access to posterior samples of the model. At the same time, advances in approximate Bayesian methods have made posterior approximation for flexible neural network models practical. Thus, it is attractive to consider approximate Bayesian neural networks in a Thompson Sampling framework. To understand the impact of using an approximate posterior on Thompson Sampling, we benchmark well-established and recently developed methods for approximate posterior sampling combined with Thompson Sampling over a series of contextual bandit problems. We found that many approaches that have been successful in the supervised learning setting underperformed in the sequential decision-making scenario. In particular, we highlight the challenge of adapting slowly converging uncertainty estimates to the online setting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Active Learning for Accurate Estimation of Linear Models

We explore the sequential decision making problem where the goal is to estimate uniformly well a number of linear models, given a shared budget of random contexts independently sampled from a known distribution. The decision maker must query one of the linear models for each incoming context, and receives an observation corrupted by noise levels that are unknown, and depend on the model instance. We present Trace-UCB, an adaptive allocation algorithm that learns the noise levels while balancing contexts accordingly across the different linear functions, and derive guarantees for simple regret in both expectation and high-probability. Finally, we extend the algorithm and its guarantees to high dimensional settings, where the number of linear models times the dimension of the contextual space is higher than the total budget of samples. Simulations with real data suggest that Trace-UCB is remarkably robust, outperforming a number of baselines even when its assumptions are violated.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Online Active Linear Regression via Thresholding

We consider the problem of online active learning to collect data for regression modeling. Specifically, we consider a decision maker with a limited experimentation budget who must efficiently learn an underlying linear population model. Our main contribution is a novel threshold-based algorithm for selection of most informative observations; we characterize its performance and fundamental lower bounds. We extend the algorithm and its guarantees to sparse linear regression in high-dimensional settings. Simulations suggest the algorithm is remarkably robust: it provides significant benefits over passive random sampling in real-world datasets that exhibit high nonlinearity and high dimensionality --- significantly reducing both the mean and variance of the squared error.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

Learning multifractal structure in large networks

Generating random graphs to model networks has a rich history. In this paper, we analyze and improve upon the multifractal network generator (MFNG) introduced by Palla et al. We provide a new result on the probability of subgraphs existing in graphs generated with MFNG. From this result it follows that we can quickly compute moments of an important set of graph properties, such as the expected number of edges, stars, and cliques. Specifically, we show how to compute these moments in time complexity independent of the size of the graph and the number of recursive levels in the generative model. We leverage this theory to a new method of moments algorithm for fitting large networks to MFNG. Empirically, this new approach effectively simulates properties of several social and information networks. In terms of matching subgraph counts, our method outperforms similar algorithms used with the Stochastic Kronecker Graph model. Furthermore, we present a fast approximation algorithm to generate graph instances following the multi- fractal structure. The approximation scheme is an improvement over previous methods, which ran in time complexity quadratic in the number of vertices. Combined, our method of moments and fast sampling scheme provide the first scalable framework for effectively modeling large networks with MFNG.

cs.SI↗