arXiv subjects

Carlos Soares

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos Soares.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

VEST: Automatic Feature Engineering for Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a challenging task with applications in a wide range of domains. Auto-regression is one of the most common approaches to address these problems. Accordingly, observations are modelled by multiple regression using their past lags as predictor variables. We investigate the extension of auto-regressive processes using statistics which summarise the recent past dynamics of time series. The result of our research is a novel framework called VEST, designed to perform feature engineering using univariate and numeric time series automatically. The proposed approach works in three main steps. First, recent observations are mapped onto different representations. Second, each representation is summarised by statistical functions. Finally, a filter is applied for feature selection. We discovered that combining the features generated by VEST with auto-regression significantly improves forecasting performance. We provide evidence using 90 time series with high sampling frequency. VEST is publicly available online.

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arXiv2019

Machine Learning vs Statistical Methods for Time Series Forecasting: Size Matters

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower predictive performance relative to simple statistical methods. In this work, we counter these results. We show that these are only valid under an extremely low sample size. Using a learning curve method, our results suggest that machine learning methods improve their relative predictive performance as the sample size grows. The code to reproduce the experiments is available at https://github.com/vcerqueira/MLforForecasting.

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arXiv2019

Characterizing classification datasets: a study of meta-features for meta-learning

Meta-learning is increasingly used to support the recommendation of machine learning algorithms and their configurations. Such recommendations are made based on meta-data, consisting of performance evaluations of algorithms on prior datasets, as well as characterizations of these datasets. These characterizations, also called meta-features, describe properties of the data which are predictive for the performance of machine learning algorithms trained on them. Unfortunately, despite being used in a large number of studies, meta-features are not uniformly described, organized and computed, making many empirical studies irreproducible and hard to compare. This paper aims to deal with this by systematizing and standardizing data characterization measures for classification datasets used in meta-learning. Moreover, it presents MFE, a new tool for extracting meta-features from datasets and identifying more subtle reproducibility issues in the literature, proposing guidelines for data characterization that strengthen reproducible empirical research in meta-learning.

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arXiv2019

Preference rules for label ranking: Mining patterns in multi-target relations

In this paper we investigate two variants of association rules for preference data, Label Ranking Association Rules and Pairwise Association Rules. Label Ranking Association Rules (LRAR) are the equivalent of Class Association Rules (CAR) for the Label Ranking task. In CAR, the consequent is a single class, to which the example is expected to belong to. In LRAR, the consequent is a ranking of the labels. The generation of LRAR requires special support and confidence measures to assess the similarity of rankings. In this work, we carry out a sensitivity analysis of these similarity-based measures. We want to understand which datasets benefit more from such measures and which parameters have more influence in the accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we propose an alternative type of rules, the Pairwise Association Rules (PAR), which are defined as association rules with a set of pairwise preferences in the consequent. While PAR can be used both as descriptive and predictive models, they are essentially descriptive models. Experimental results show the potential of both approaches.

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arXiv2018

Entity-Relationship Search over the Web

Entity-Relationship (E-R) Search is a complex case of Entity Search where the goal is to search for multiple unknown entities and relationships connecting them. We assume that a E-R query can be decomposed as a sequence of sub-queries each containing keywords related to a specific entity or relationship. We adopt a probabilistic formulation of the E-R search problem. When creating specific representations for entities (e.g. context terms) and for pairs of entities (i.e. relationships) it is possible to create a graph of probabilistic dependencies between sub-queries and entity plus relationship representations. To the best of our knowledge this represents the first probabilistic model of E-R search. We propose and develop a novel supervised Early Fusion-based model for E-R search, the Entity-Relationship Dependence Model (ERDM). It uses Markov Random Field to model term dependencies of E-R sub-queries and entity/relationship documents. We performed experiments with more than 800M entities and relationships extractions from ClueWeb-09-B with FACC1 entity linking. We obtained promising results using 3 different query collections comprising 469 E-R queries, with results showing that it is possible to perform E-R search without using fix and pre-defined entity and relationship types, enabling a wide range of queries to be addressed.

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arXiv2018

cf2vec: Collaborative Filtering algorithm selection using graph distributed representations

Algorithm selection using Metalearning aims to find mappings between problem characteristics (i.e. metafeatures) with relative algorithm performance to predict the best algorithm(s) for new datasets. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance that the metafeatures used are informative. In Collaborative Filtering, recent research has created an extensive collection of such metafeatures. However, since these are created based on the practitioner's understanding of the problem, they may not capture the most relevant aspects necessary to properly characterize the problem. We propose to overcome this problem by taking advantage of Representation Learning, which is able to create an alternative problem characterizations by having the data guide the design of the representation instead of the practitioner's opinion. Our hypothesis states that such alternative representations can be used to replace standard metafeatures, hence hence leading to a more robust approach to Metalearning. We propose a novel procedure specially designed for Collaborative Filtering algorithm selection. The procedure models Collaborative Filtering as graphs and extracts distributed representations using graph2vec. Experimental results show that the proposed procedure creates representations that are competitive with state-of-the-art metafeatures, while requiring significantly less data and without virtually any human input.

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arXiv2018

Algorithm Selection for Collaborative Filtering: the influence of graph metafeatures and multicriteria metatargets

To select the best algorithm for a new problem is an expensive and difficult task. However, there are automatic solutions to address this problem: using Metalearning, which takes advantage of problem characteristics (i.e. metafeatures), one is able to predict the relative performance of algorithms. In the Collaborative Filtering scope, recent works have proposed diverse metafeatures describing several dimensions of this problem. Despite interesting and effective findings, it is still unknown whether these are the most effective metafeatures. Hence, this work proposes a new set of graph metafeatures, which approach the Collaborative Filtering problem from a Graph Theory perspective. Furthermore, in order to understand whether metafeatures from multiple dimensions are a better fit, we investigate the effects of comprehensive metafeatures. These metafeatures are a selection of the best metafeatures from all existing Collaborative Filtering metafeatures. The impact of the most representative metafeatures is investigated in a controlled experimental setup. Another contribution we present is the use of a Pareto-Efficient ranking procedure to create multicriteria metatargets. These new rankings of algorithms, which take into account multiple evaluation measures, allow to explore the algorithm selection problem in a fairer and more detailed way. According to the experimental results, the graph metafeatures are a good alternative to related work metafeatures. However, the results have shown that the feature selection procedure used to create the comprehensive metafeatures is is not effective, since there is no gain in predictive performance. Finally, an extensive metaknowledge analysis was conducted to identify the most influential metafeatures.

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arXiv2018

Building robust prediction models for defective sensor data using Artificial Neural Networks

Predicting the health of components in complex dynamic systems such as an automobile poses numerous challenges. The primary aim of such predictive systems is to use the high-dimensional data acquired from different sensors and predict the state-of-health of a particular component, e.g., brake pad. The classical approach involves selecting a smaller set of relevant sensor signals using feature selection and using them to train a machine learning algorithm. However, this fails to address two prominent problems: (1) sensors are susceptible to failure when exposed to extreme conditions over a long periods of time; (2) sensors are electrical devices that can be affected by noise or electrical interference. Using the failed and noisy sensor signals as inputs largely reduce the prediction accuracy. To tackle this problem, it is advantageous to use the information from all sensor signals, so that the failure of one sensor can be compensated by another. In this work, we propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based framework to exploit the information from a large number of signals. Secondly, our framework introduces a data augmentation approach to perform accurate predictions in spite of noisy signals. The plausibility of our framework is validated on real life industrial application from Robert Bosch GmbH.

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arXiv2018

CF4CF: Recommending Collaborative Filtering algorithms using Collaborative Filtering

Automatic solutions which enable the selection of the best algorithms for a new problem are commonly found in the literature. One research area which has recently received considerable efforts is Collaborative Filtering. Existing work includes several approaches using Metalearning, which relate the characteristics of datasets with the performance of the algorithms. This work explores an alternative approach to tackle this problem. Since, in essence, both are recommendation problems, this work uses Collaborative Filtering algorithms to select Collaborative Filtering algorithms. Our approach integrates subsampling landmarkers, which are a data characterization approach commonly used in Metalearning, with a standard Collaborative Filtering method. The experimental results show that CF4CF competes with standard Metalearning strategies in the problem of Collaborative Filtering algorithm selection.

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arXiv2018

Smart energy management as a means towards improved energy efficiency

The costs associated with refrigerator equipment often represent more than half of the total energy costs in supermarkets. This presents a good motivation for running these systems efficiently. In this study, we investigate different ways to construct a reference behavior, which can serve as a baseline for judging the performance of energy consumption. We used 3 distinct learning models: Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forests, and Artificial Neural Networks. During our experiments we used a variation of the sliding window method in combination with learning curves. We applied this approach on five different supermarkets, across Portugal. We are able to create baselines using off-the-shelf data mining techniques. Moreover, we found a way to create them based on short term historical data. We believe that our research will serve as a base for future studies, for which we provide interesting directions.

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arXiv2017

Early Fusion Strategy for Entity-Relationship Retrieval

We address the task of entity-relationship (E-R) retrieval, i.e, given a query characterizing types of two or more entities and relationships between them, retrieve the relevant tuples of related entities. Answering E-R queries requires gathering and joining evidence from multiple unstructured documents. In this work, we consider entity and relationships of any type, i.e, characterized by context terms instead of pre-defined types or relationships. We propose a novel IR-centric approach for E-R retrieval, that builds on the basic early fusion design pattern for object retrieval, to provide extensible entity-relationship representations, suitable for complex, multi-relationships queries. We performed experiments with Wikipedia articles as entity representations combined with relationships extracted from ClueWeb-09-B with FACC1 entity linking. We obtained promising results using 3 different query collections comprising 469 E-R queries.

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arXiv2017

Learning Word Embeddings from the Portuguese Twitter Stream: A Study of some Practical Aspects

This paper describes a preliminary study for producing and distributing a large-scale database of embeddings from the Portuguese Twitter stream. We start by experimenting with a relatively small sample and focusing on three challenges: volume of training data, vocabulary size and intrinsic evaluation metrics. Using a single GPU, we were able to scale up vocabulary size from 2048 words embedded and 500K training examples to 32768 words over 10M training examples while keeping a stable validation loss and approximately linear trend on training time per epoch. We also observed that using less than 50\% of the available training examples for each vocabulary size might result in overfitting. Results on intrinsic evaluation show promising performance for a vocabulary size of 32768 words. Nevertheless, intrinsic evaluation metrics suffer from over-sensitivity to their corresponding cosine similarity thresholds, indicating that a wider range of metrics need to be developed to track progress.

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arXiv2017

autoBagging: Learning to Rank Bagging Workflows with Metalearning

Machine Learning (ML) has been successfully applied to a wide range of domains and applications. One of the techniques behind most of these successful applications is Ensemble Learning (EL), the field of ML that gave birth to methods such as Random Forests or Boosting. The complexity of applying these techniques together with the market scarcity on ML experts, has created the need for systems that enable a fast and easy drop-in replacement for ML libraries. Automated machine learning (autoML) is the field of ML that attempts to answers these needs. Typically, these systems rely on optimization techniques such as bayesian optimization to lead the search for the best model. Our approach differs from these systems by making use of the most recent advances on metalearning and a learning to rank approach to learn from metadata. We propose autoBagging, an autoML system that automatically ranks 63 bagging workflows by exploiting past performance and dataset characterization. Results on 140 classification datasets from the OpenML platform show that autoBagging can yield better performance than the Average Rank method and achieve results that are not statistically different from an ideal model that systematically selects the best workflow for each dataset. For the purpose of reproducibility and generalizability, autoBagging is publicly available as an R package on CRAN.

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arXiv2017

RELink: A Research Framework and Test Collection for Entity-Relationship Retrieval

Improvements of entity-relationship (E-R) search techniques have been hampered by a lack of test collections, particularly for complex queries involving multiple entities and relationships. In this paper we describe a method for generating E-R test queries to support comprehensive E-R search experiments. Queries and relevance judgments are created from content that exists in a tabular form where columns represent entity types and the table structure implies one or more relationships among the entities. Editorial work involves creating natural language queries based on relationships represented by the entries in the table. We have publicly released the RELink test collection comprising 600 queries and relevance judgments obtained from a sample of Wikipedia List-of-lists-of-lists tables. The latter comprise tuples of entities that are extracted from columns and labelled by corresponding entity types and relationships they represent. In order to facilitate research in complex E-R retrieval, we have created and released as open source the RELink Framework that includes Apache Lucene indexing and search specifically tailored to E-R retrieval. RELink includes entity and relationship indexing based on the ClueWeb-09-B Web collection with FACC1 text span annotations linked to Wikipedia entities. With ready to use search resources and a comprehensive test collection, we support community in pursuing E-R research at scale.

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arXiv2017

FEUP at SemEval-2017 Task 5: Predicting Sentiment Polarity and Intensity with Financial Word Embeddings

This paper presents the approach developed at the Faculty of Engineering of University of Porto, to participate in SemEval 2017, Task 5: Fine-grained Sentiment Analysis on Financial Microblogs and News. The task consisted in predicting a real continuous variable from -1.0 to +1.0 representing the polarity and intensity of sentiment concerning companies/stocks mentioned in short texts. We modeled the task as a regression analysis problem and combined traditional techniques such as pre-processing short texts, bag-of-words representations and lexical-based features with enhanced financial specific bag-of-embeddings. We used an external collection of tweets and news headlines mentioning companies/stocks from S\&P 500 to create financial word embeddings which are able to capture domain-specific syntactic and semantic similarities. The resulting approach obtained a cosine similarity score of 0.69 in sub-task 5.1 - Microblogs and 0.68 in sub-task 5.2 - News Headlines.

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arXiv2016

Learning from the News: Predicting Entity Popularity on Twitter

In this work, we tackle the problem of predicting entity popularity on Twitter based on the news cycle. We apply a supervised learn- ing approach and extract four types of features: (i) signal, (ii) textual, (iii) sentiment and (iv) semantic, which we use to predict whether the popularity of a given entity will be high or low in the following hours. We run several experiments on six different entities in a dataset of over 150M tweets and 5M news and obtained F1 scores over 0.70. Error analysis indicates that news perform better on predicting entity popularity on Twitter when they are the primary information source of the event, in opposition to events such as live TV broadcasts, political debates or football matches.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Sentiment Aggregate Functions for Political Opinion Polling using Microblog Streams

The automatic content analysis of mass media in the social sciences has become necessary and possible with the raise of social media and computational power. One particularly promising avenue of research concerns the use of sentiment analysis in microblog streams. However, one of the main challenges consists in aggregating sentiment polarity in a timely fashion that can be fed to the prediction method. We investigated a large set of sentiment aggregate functions and performed a regression analysis using political opinion polls as gold standard. Our dataset contains nearly 233 000 tweets, classified according to their polarity (positive, negative or neutral), regarding the five main Portuguese political leaders during the Portuguese bailout (2011-2014). Results show that different sentiment aggregate functions exhibit different feature importance over time while the error keeps almost unchanged.

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arXiv2016

TimeMachine: Entity-centric Search and Visualization of News Archives

We present a dynamic web tool that allows interactive search and visualization of large news archives using an entity-centric approach. Users are able to search entities using keyword phrases expressing news stories or events and the system retrieves the most relevant entities to the user query based on automatically extracted and indexed entity profiles. From the computational journalism perspective, TimeMachine allows users to explore media content through time using automatic identification of entity names, jobs, quotations and relations between entities from co-occurrences networks extracted from the news articles. TimeMachine demo is available at http://maquinadotempo.sapo.pt/

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