arXiv subjects

Carlton M. Baugh

Publications and source records attributed to Carlton M. Baugh.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

The buildup of galaxies and their spheroids: the contributions of mergers, disc instabilities and star formation

We use the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and the Planck-Millennium simulation to investigate the origins of stellar mass in galaxies and their spheroids. We compare the importance of mergers and disc instabilities, as well as the starbursts that they trigger. We find that the fraction of galaxy stellar mass formed \textit{ex situ} ($f_\mathrm{ex}$) increases sharply from $M_*=10^{11}$ M$_\odot$ upwards, reaching $80\%$ at $M_*=10^{11.3}$ M$_\odot$. For low-mass galaxies we find larger \textit{\textit{ex situ}} contributions at $z=0$ than in other models ($7$-$12\%$), with a decrease towards higher redshifts. The global \textit{ex situ} fraction of all stellar mass falls sharply with redshift, from $40\%$ at $z=0$ to $3\%$ at $z=10$. Major mergers contribute roughly half of the \textit{ex situ} mass, with minor mergers and smooth accretion of satellites both accounting for $\approx25\%$, almost independent of stellar mass and redshift. Mergers dominate in building up high-mass ($M_\mathrm{*,sph}>10^{11}$ M$_\odot$) and low-mass ($M_\mathrm{*,sph}<10^{8.5}$ M$_\odot$) spheroids. Disc instabilities and their associated starbursts dominate for intermediate-mass spheroids ($10^{8.5}<M_\mathrm{*,sph}<10^{11}$ M$_\odot$) at $z=0$. The mass regime where pseudobulges dominate is in agreement with observed pseudobulge fractions, but the peak value in the pseudobulge fraction predicted by GALFORM is likely too high. The total contributions of disc instabilities and their starbursts are roughly equal at $z=0$, with the former dominating for lower-mass spheroids (peak at $M_\mathrm{*,sph}=10^{9.5}$ M$_\odot$) and the latter for higher-mass ones (peak at $M_\mathrm{*,sph}=10^{10.5}$ M$_\odot$).

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arXiv2022

Galaxy clustering from the bottom up: A Streaming Model emulator I

In this series of papers, we present a simulation-based model for the non-linear clustering of galaxies based on separate modelling of clustering in real space and velocity statistics. In the first paper, we present an emulator for the real-space correlation function of galaxies, whereas the emulator of the real-to-redshift space mapping based on velocity statistics is presented in the second paper. Here, we show that a neural network emulator for real-space galaxy clustering trained on data extracted from the Dark Quest suite of N-body simulations achieves sub-per cent accuracies on scales $1 < r < 30 $ $h^{-1} \,\mathrm{Mpc}$, and better than $3\%$ on scales $r < 1$ $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ in predicting the clustering of dark-matter haloes with number density $10^{-3.5}$ $(h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc})^{-3}$, close to that of SDSS LOWZ-like galaxies. The halo emulator can be combined with a galaxy-halo connection model to predict the galaxy correlation function through the halo model. We demonstrate that we accurately recover the cosmological and galaxy-halo connection parameters when galaxy clustering depends only on the mass of the galaxies' host halos. Furthermore, the constraining power in $σ_8$ increases by about a factor of $2$ when including scales smaller than $5$ $h^{-1} \,\mathrm{Mpc}$. However, when mass is not the only property responsible for galaxy clustering, as observed in hydrodynamical or semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, our emulator gives biased constraints on $σ_8$. This bias disappears when small scales ($r < 10$ $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$) are excluded from the analysis. This shows that a vanilla halo model could introduce biases into the analysis of future datasets.

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arXiv2022

Towards an accurate model of small-scale redshift-space distortions in modified gravity

The coming generation of galaxy surveys will provide measurements of galaxy clustering with unprecedented accuracy and data size, which will allow us to test cosmological models at much higher precision than achievable previously. This means that we must have more accurate theoretical predictions to compare with future observational data. As a first step towards more accurate modelling of the redshift space distortions (RSD) of small-scale galaxy clustering in modified gravity (MG) cosmologies, we investigate the validity of the so-called Skew-T (ST) probability distribution function (PDF) of halo pairwise peculiar velocities in these models. We show that, combined with the streaming model of RSD, the ST PDF substantially improves the small-scale predictions by incorporating skewness and kurtosis, for both $Λ$CDM and two leading MG models: $f(R)$ gravity and the DGP braneworld model. The ST model reproduces the velocity PDF and redshift-space halo clustering measured from MG $N$-body simulations very well down to $\sim 5 \, h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$. In particular, we investigate the enhancements of halo pairwise velocity moments with respect to $Λ$CDM for a larger range of MG variants than previous works, and present simple explanations to the behaviours observed. By performing a simple Fisher analysis, we find a significnat increase in constraining power to detect modifications of General Relativity by introducing small-scale information in the RSD analyses.

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arXiv2022

Fast full N-body simulations of generic modified gravity: conformal coupling models

We present MG-GLAM, a code developed for the very fast production of full $N$-body cosmological simulations in modified gravity (MG) models. We describe the implementation, numerical tests and first results of a large suite of cosmological simulations for three classes of MG models with conformal coupling terms: the $f(R)$ gravity, symmetron and coupled quintessence models. Derived from the parallel particle-mesh code GLAM, MG-GLAM incorporates an efficient multigrid relaxation technique to solve the characteristic nonlinear partial differential equations of these models. For $f(R)$ gravity, we have included new variants to diversify the model behaviour, and we have tailored the relaxation algorithms to these to maintain high computational efficiency. In a companion paper, we describe versions of this code developed for derivative coupling MG models, including the Vainshtein- and K-mouflage-type models. MG-GLAM can model the prototypes for most MG models of interest, and is broad and versatile. The code is highly optimised, with a tremendous speedup of a factor of more than a hundred compared with earlier $N$-body codes, while still giving accurate predictions of the matter power spectrum and dark matter halo abundance. MG-GLAM is ideal for the generation of large numbers of MG simulations that can be used in the construction of mock galaxy catalogues and the production of accurate emulators for ongoing and future galaxy surveys.

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arXiv2021

Making use of sub-resolution halos in N-body simulations

Conservative mass limits are often imposed on the dark matter halo catalogues extracted from N-body simulations. By comparing simulations with different mass resolutions, at $z=0$ we find that even for halos resolved by 100 particles, the lower resolution simulation predicts a cumulative halo abundance that is 5 per cent lower than in the higher resolution simulation. We propose a simple weighting scheme to utilise the halos that are usually regarded as being `sub-resolution'. With the scheme, we are able to use halos which contain only 11 particles to reproduce the clustering measured in the higher resolution simulation to within 5 per cent on scales down to $2 h^{-1}$ Mpc, thereby extending the useful halo resolution by a factor of ten below the mass at which the mass functions in the two simulations first start to deviate. The performance of the method is slightly worse at higher redshift. Our method allows a simulation to be used to probe a wider parameter space in clustering studies, for example, in a halo occupation distribution analysis. This reduces the cost of generating many simulations to estimate the covariance matrix on measurements or using a larger volume simulation to make large-scale clustering predictions.

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arXiv2021

Statistics of galaxy mergers: bridging the gap between theory and observation

We present a study of galaxy mergers up to $z=10$ using the Planck Millennium cosmological dark matter simulation and the {\tt GALFORM} semi-analytical model of galaxy formation. Utilising the full ($800$ Mpc)$^3$ volume of the simulation, we studied the statistics of galaxy mergers in terms of merger rates and close pair fractions. We predict that merger rates begin to drop rapidly for high-mass galaxies ($M_*>10^{11.3}-10^{10.5}$ $M_\odot$ for $z=0-4$), as a result of the exponential decline in the galaxy stellar mass function. The predicted merger rates increase and then turn over with increasing redshift, by $z=3.5$, in disagreement with hydrodynamical simulations and semi-empirical models. In agreement with most other models and observations, we find that close pair fractions flatten or turn over at some redshift (dependent on the mass selection). We conduct an extensive comparison of close pair fractions, and highlight inconsistencies among models, but also between different observations. We provide a fitting formula for the major merger timescale for close galaxy pairs, in which the slope of the stellar mass dependence is redshift dependent. This is in disagreement with previous theoretical results that implied a constant slope. Instead we find a weak redshift dependence only for massive galaxies ($M_*>10^{10}$ M$_\odot$): in this case the merger timescale varies approximately as $M_*^{-0.55}$. We find that close pair fractions and merger timescales depend on the maximum projected separation as $r_\mathrm{max}^{1.32}$. This is in agreement with observations of small-scale clustering of galaxies, but is at odds with the linear dependence on projected separation that is often assumed.

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arXiv2021

Fast full $N$-body simulations of generic modified gravity: derivative coupling models

We present MG-GLAM, a code developed for the very fast production of full $N$-body cosmological simulations in modified gravity (MG) models. We describe the implementation, numerical tests and first results of a large suite of cosmological simulations for two broad classes of MG models with derivative coupling terms -- the Vainshtein- and Kmouflage-type models -- which respectively features the Vainshtein and Kmouflage screening mechanism. Derived from the parallel particle-mesh code GLAM, MG-GLAM incorporates an efficient multigrid relaxation technique to solve the characteristic nonlinear partial differential equations of these models. For Kmouflage, we have proposed a new algorithm for the relaxation solver, and run the first simulations of the model to understand its cosmological behaviour. In a companion paper, we describe versions of this code developed for conformally-coupled MG models, including several variants of $f(R)$ gravity, the symmetron model and coupled quintessence. Altogether, MG-GLAM has so far implemented the prototypes for most MG models of interest, and is broad and versatile. The code is highly optimised, with a tremendous (over two orders of magnitude) speedup when comparing its running time with earlier $N$-body codes, while still giving accurate predictions of the matter power spectrum and dark matter halo abundance. MG-GLAM is ideal for the generation of large numbers of MG simulations that can be used in the construction of mock galaxy catalogues and accurate emulators for ongoing and future galaxy surveys.

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arXiv2021

Halo Merger Tree Comparison: Impact on Galaxy Formation Models

We examine the effect of using different halo finders and merger tree building algorithms on galaxy properties predicted using the GALFORM semi-analytical model run on a high resolution, large volume dark matter simulation. The halo finders/tree builders HBT, ROCKSTAR, SUBFIND and VELOCIRAPTOR differ in their definitions of halo mass, on whether only spatial or phase-space information is used, and in how they distinguish satellite and main haloes; all of these features have some impact on the model galaxies, even after the trees are post-processed and homogenised by GALFORM. The stellar mass function is insensitive to the halo and merger tree finder adopted. However, we find that the number of central and satellite galaxies in GALFORM does depend slightly on the halo finder/tree builder. The number of galaxies without resolved subhaloes depends strongly on the tree builder, with VELOCIRAPTOR, a phase-space finder, showing the largest population of such galaxies. The distributions of stellar masses, cold and hot gas masses, and star formation rates agree well between different halo finders/tree builders. However, because VELOCIRAPTOR has more early progenitor haloes, with these trees GALFORM produces slightly higher star formation rate densities at high redshift, smaller galaxy sizes, and larger stellar masses for the spheroid component. Since in all cases these differences are small we conclude that, when all of the trees are processed so that the main progenitor mass increases monotonically, the predicted GALFORM galaxy populations are stable and consistent for these four halo finders/tree builders.

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arXiv2021

Galaxy formation in the brane world I: overview and first results

We carry out ``full-physics'' hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy formation in the normal-branch Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati (nDGP) braneworld model using a new modified version of the {\sc Arepo} code and the IllustrisTNG galaxy formation model. We simulate two nDGP models (N5 and N1) which represent, respectively, weak and moderate departures from GR, in boxes of sizes $62\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ and $25\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ using $2\times512^3$ dark matter particles and initial gas cells. This allows us to explore, for the first time, the impact of baryonic physics on galactic scales in braneworld models of modified gravity and to make predictions on the stellar content of dark matter haloes and galaxy evolution through cosmic time in these models. We find significant differences between the GR and nDGP models in the power spectra and correlation functions of gas, stars and dark matter of up to $\sim 25$ per cent on large scales. Similar to their impact in the standard cosmological model ($Λ$CDM), baryonic effects can have a significant influence over the clustering of the overall matter distribution, with a sign that depends on scale. Studying the degeneracy between modified gravity and galactic feedback in these models, we find that these two physical effects on matter clustering can be cleanly disentangled, allowing for a method to accurately predict the matter power spectrum with baryonic effects included, without having to run hydrodynamical simulations. Depending on the braneworld model, we find differences compared with GR of up to $\sim15$ per cent in galaxy properties such as the stellar-to-halo-mass ratio, galaxy stellar mass function, gas fraction and star formation rate density. The amplitude of the fifth force is reduced by the presence of baryons in the very inner part of haloes, but this reduction quickly becomes negligible above $\sim0.1$ times the halo radius.

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arXiv2021

Characterising the target selection pipeline for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Bright Galaxy Survey

We present the steps taken to produce a reliable and complete input galaxy catalogue for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) using the photometric Legacy Survey DR8 DECam. We analyse some of the main issues faced in the selection of targets for the DESI BGS, such as star-galaxy separation, contamination by fragmented stars and bright galaxies. Our pipeline utilizes a new way to select BGS galaxies using Gaia photometry and we implement geometrical and photometric masks that reduce the number of spurious objects. The resulting catalogue is cross-matched with the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey to assess the completeness of the galaxy catalogue and the performance of the target selection. We also validate the clustering of the sources in our BGS catalogue by comparing with mock catalogues and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Finally, the robustness of the BGS selection criteria is assessed by quantifying the dependence of the target galaxy density on imaging and other properties. The largest systematic correlation we find is a 7 per cent suppression of the target density in regions of high stellar density.

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arXiv2021

Efficient exploration and calibration of a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation with deep learning

We implement a sample-efficient method for rapid and accurate emulation of semi-analytical galaxy formation models over a wide range of model outputs. We use ensembled deep learning algorithms to produce a fast emulator of an updated version of the GALFORM model from a small number of training examples. We use the emulator to explore the model's parameter space, and apply sensitivity analysis techniques to better understand the relative importance of the model parameters. We uncover key tensions between observational datasets by applying a heuristic weighting scheme in a Markov chain Monte Carlo framework and exploring the effects of requiring improved fits to certain datasets relative to others. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this method can be used to successfully calibrate the model parameters to a comprehensive list of observational constraints. In doing so, we re-discover previous GALFORM fits in an automatic and transparent way, and discover an improved fit by applying a heavier weighting to the fit to the metallicities of early-type galaxies. The deep learning emulator requires a fraction of the model evaluations needed in similar emulation approaches, achieving an out-of-sample mean absolute error at the knee of the K-band luminosity function of 0.06 dex with less than 1000 model evaluations. We demonstrate that this is an extremely efficient, inexpensive and transparent way to explore multi-dimensional parameter spaces, and can be applied more widely beyond semi-analytical galaxy formation models.

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arXiv2020

The PAU Survey: An improved photo-$z$ sample in the COSMOS field

We present -- and make publicly available -- accurate and precise photometric redshifts in the ACS footprint from the COSMOS field for objects with $i_{\mathrm{AB}}\leq 23$. The redshifts are computed using a combination of narrow band photometry from PAUS, a survey with 40 narrow bands spaced at $100Å$ intervals covering the range from $4500Å$ to $8500Å$, and 26 broad, intermediate, and narrow bands covering the UV, visible and near infrared spectrum from the COSMOS2015 catalogue. We introduce a new method that models the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) as a linear combination of continuum and emission line templates and computes its Bayes evidence, integrating over the linear combinations. The correlation between the UV luminosity and the OII line is measured using the 66 available bands with the zCOSMOS spectroscopic sample, and used as a prior which constrains the relative flux between continuum and emission line templates. The flux ratios between the OII line and $\mathrm{H}_α$, $\mathrm{H}_β$ and $\mathrm{OIII}$ are similarly measured and used to generate the emission line templates. Comparing to public spectroscopic surveys via the quantity $Δ_z\equiv(z_{\mathrm{photo}}-z_{\mathrm{spec}})/(1+z_{\mathrm{spec}})$, we find the photometric redshifts to be more precise than previous estimates, with $σ_{68}(Δ_z) \approx (0.003, 0.009)$ for galaxies at magnitude $i_{\mathrm{AB}}\sim18$ and $i_{\mathrm{AB}}\sim23$, respectively, which is $3\times$ and $1.66\times$ tighter than COSMOS2015. Additionally, we find the redshifts to be very accurate on average, yielding a median of the $Δ_z$ distribution compatible with $|\mathrm{median}(Δ_z)|\leq0.001$ at all redshifts and magnitudes considered. Both the added PAUS data and new methodology contribute significantly to the improved results.

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arXiv2020

Determining the systemic redshift of Lyman-alpha emitters with neural networks and improving the measured large-scale clustering

We explore how to mitigate the clustering distortions in Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) samples caused by the miss-identification of the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) wavelength in their Ly$α$ line profiles. We use the Ly$α$ line profiles from our previous LAE theoretical model that includes radiative transfer in the interstellar and intergalactic mediums. We introduce a novel approach to measure the systemic redshift of LAEs from their Ly$α$ line using neural networks. In detail, we assume that, for a fraction of the whole LAE population their systemic redshift is determined precisely through other spectral features. We then use this subset to train a neural network that predicts the Ly$α$ wavelength given a Ly$α$ line profile. We test two different training sets: i) the LAEs are selected homogeneously and ii) only the brightest LAEs are selected. In comparison with previous approaches in the literature, our methodology improves significantly both accuracy and precision in determining the Ly$α$ wavelength. In fact, after applying our algorithm in ideal Ly$α$ line profiles, we recover the clustering unperturbed down to 1cMpc/h. Then, we test the performance of our methodology in realistic Ly$α$ line profiles by downgrading their quality. The machine learning techniques work well even if the Ly$α$ line profile quality is decreased considerably. We conclude that LAE surveys such as HETDEX would benefit from determining with high accuracy the systemic redshift of a subpopulation and applying our methodology to estimate the systemic redshift of the rest of the galaxy sample.

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arXiv2020

Towards a non-Gaussian model of redshift space distortions

To understand the nature of the accelerated expansion of the Universe, we need to combine constraints on the expansion rate and growth of structure. The growth rate is usually extracted from three dimensional galaxy maps by exploiting the effects of peculiar motions on galaxy clustering. However, theoretical models of the probability distribution function (PDF) of galaxy pairwise peculiar velocities are not accurate enough on small scales to reduce the error on theoretical predictions to the level required to match the precision expected for measurements from future surveys. Here, we improve the modelling of the pairwise velocity distribution by using the Skew-T PDF, which has nonzero skewness and kurtosis. Our model accurately reproduces the redshift-space multipoles (monopole, quadrupole and hexadecapole) predicted by N-body simulations, above scales of about $10\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$. We illustrate how a Taylor expansion of the streaming model can reveal the contributions of the different moments to the clustering multipoles, which are independent of the shape of the velocity PDF. The Taylor expansion explains why the Gaussian streaming model works well in predicting the first two redshift-space multipoles, although the velocity PDF is non-Gaussian even on large scales. Indeed, any PDF with the correct first two moments would produce precise results for the monopole down to scales of about $10\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, and for the quadrupole down to about $30\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$. An accurate model for the hexadecapole needs to include higher-order moments.

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arXiv2020

Building a digital twin of a luminous red galaxy spectroscopic survey: galaxy properties and clustering covariance

Luminous red galaxies (LRGs) are one of the key tracers of the large-scale structure of the Universe used by galaxy surveys. Hence, it is important to make accurate predictions for their properties and clustering, including the errors on these statistics. Here, we describe a novel technique which uses the semi-analytical model of galaxy formation {\sc Galform}, embedded in the high-resolution $N$-body Planck-Millennium simulation, to populate a thousand halo catalogues generated using the Parallel-PM $N$-body {\sc glam} code. Our hybrid scheme allows us to make clustering predictions on scales that cannot be modelled in the original $N$-body simulation. LRGs are selected in the redshift range $z=0.6-1$ from the {\sc Galform} output using similar colour-magnitude cuts in the $r$, $z$ and $W1$ bands to those that will be applied in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. We find that the LRG-halo connection is non-trivial, leading to the prediction of a non-standard halo occupation distribution; in particular, the occupation of central galaxies does not reach unity for the most massive haloes, and drops with increasing mass. The {\sc glam} catalogues reproduce the abundance and clustering of the LRGs predicted by {\sc Galform}, and show good agreement with recent measurements of the clustering of DESI-like LRGs using photometric redshifts. We use the \glam{} mocks to compute the covariance matrices for the two-point correlation function and power spectrum of the LRGs and their background dark matter density field, revealing important differences. We also make predictions for the linear-growth rate and the baryon acoustic oscillations distances at $z=0.6$, $0.74$ and $0.93$. All DESI-like LRG catalogues are made publicly available.

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arXiv2020

Constraining structure formation using EDGES

The experiment to detect the global epoch of reionization signature (EDGES) collaboration reported the detection of a line at 78MHz in the sky-averaged spectrum due to neutral hydrogen (HI) 21-cm hyperfine absorption of cosmic microwave background photons at $z\sim 17$. This requires that the spin temperature of HI be coupled to the kinetic temperature of the gas at this $z$ through the scattering of Ly-$α$ photons emitted by massive stars. To explain the experimental result, star formation needs to be sufficiently efficient at $z\sim 17$ and this can be used to constrain models in which small-scale structure formation is suppressed (DMF models), either due to dark matter free-streaming or non-standard inflationary dynamics. We combine simulations of structure formation with a simple recipe for star formation to investigate whether these models emit enough Ly-$α$ photons to reproduce the experimental signal for reasonable values of the star formation efficiency, $f_\star$. We find that a thermal warm dark matter (WDM) model with mass $m_\mathrm{WDM}\sim 4.3\,\mathrm{keV}$ is consistent with the timing of the signal for $f_\star\lesssim 2\%$. The exponential growth of structure around $z\sim 17$ in such a model naturally generates a sharp onset of the absorption. A warmer model with $m_\mathrm{WDM}\sim 3\,\mathrm{keV}$ requires a higher star formation efficiency, $f_\star\sim 6\%$, which is a factor of few above predictions of current star formation models and observations of satellites in the Milky Way. However, uncertainties in the process of star formation at these $z$ do not allow to derive strong constrains on such models using 21-cm absorption line. The onset of the 21-cm absorption is generally faster in DMF compared to cold dark matter (CDM), unless some process significantly suppresses star formation in halos with masses below $\sim 10^8\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$.

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arXiv2020

Lyman-alpha emitters in a cosmological volume II: the impact of the intergalactic medium

In the near future galaxy surveys will target Lyman alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs) to unveil the nature of the dark energy. It has been suggested that the observability of LAEs is coupled to the large scale properties of the intergalactic medium. Such coupling could introduce distortions into the observed clustering of LAEs, adding a new potential difficulty to the interpretation of upcoming surveys. We present a model of LAEs that incorporates Lyman-alpha radiative transfer processes in the interstellar and intergalactic medium. The model is implemented in the GALFORM semi-analytic model of galaxy of formation and evolution. We find that the radiative transfer inside galaxies produces selection effects over galaxy properties. In particular, observed LAEs tend to have low metallicities and intermediate star formation rates. At low redshift we find no evidence of a correlation between the spatial distribution of LAEs and the intergalactic medium properties. However, at high redshift the LAEs are linked to the line of sight velocity and density gradient of the intergalactic medium. The strength of the coupling depends on the outflow properties of the galaxies and redshift. This effect modifies the clustering of LAEs on large scales, adding non linear features. In particular, our model predicts modifications to the shape and position of the baryon acoustic oscillation peak. This work highlights the importance of including radiative transfer physics in the cosmological analysis of LAEs.

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arXiv2020

AGNs at the cosmic dawn: predictions for future surveys from a $Λ$CDM cosmological model

Telescopes to be launched over the next decade-and-a-half, such as JWST, EUCLID, ATHENA and Lynx, promise to revolutionise the study of the high redshift Universe and greatly advance our understanding of the early stages of galaxy formation. We use a model that follows the evolution of the masses and spins of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) within a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation to make predictions for the Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) luminosity function at $z\geq7$ in the broadband filters of JWST and EUCLID at near-infrared wavelengths, and ATHENA and Lynx at X-ray energies. The predictions of our model are relatively insensitive to the choice of seed black hole mass, except at the lowest luminosities ($L_{\mathrm{bol}}<10^{43}\mathrm{ergs^{-1}}$) and the highest redshifts ($z>10$). We predict that surveys with these different telescopes will select somewhat different samples of SMBHs, with EUCLID unveiling the most massive, highest accretion rate SMBHs, Lynx the least massive, lowest accretion rate SMBHs, and JWST and ATHENA covering objects inbetween. At $z=7$, we predict that typical detectable SMBHs will have masses, $M_{\mathrm{BH}}\sim10^{5-8}M_{\odot}$, and Eddington normalised mass accretion rates, $\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\mathrm{Edd}}\sim0.6-2$. The SMBHs will be hosted by galaxies of stellar mass $M_{\star}\sim10^{8-10}M_{\odot}$, and dark matter haloes of mass $M_{\mathrm{halo}}\sim10^{11-12}M_{\odot}$. We predict that the detectable SMBHs at $z=10$ will have slightly smaller black holes, accreting at slightly higher Eddington normalised mass accretion rates, in slightly lower mass host galaxies compared to those at $z=7$, and reside in haloes of mass $M_{\mathrm{halo}}\sim10^{10-11}M_{\odot}$.

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