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Carmine Ventre

Publications and source records attributed to Carmine Ventre.

52 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Denoised Labels for Financial Time-Series Data via Self-Supervised Learning

The introduction of electronic trading platforms effectively changed the organisation of traditional systemic trading from quote-driven markets into order-driven markets. Its convenience led to an exponentially increasing amount of financial data, which is however hard to use for the prediction of future prices, due to the low signal-to-noise ratio and the non-stationarity of financial time series. Simpler classification tasks -- where the goal is to predict the directions of future price movement -- via supervised learning algorithms, need sufficiently reliable labels to generalise well. Labelling financial data is however less well defined than other domains: did the price go up because of noise or because of signal? The existing labelling methods have limited countermeasures against noise and limited effects in improving learning algorithms. This work takes inspiration from image classification in trading and success in self-supervised learning. We investigate the idea of applying computer vision techniques to financial time-series to reduce the noise exposure and hence generate correct labels. We look at the label generation as the pretext task of a self-supervised learning approach and compare the naive (and noisy) labels, commonly used in the literature, with the labels generated by a denoising autoencoder for the same downstream classification task. Our results show that our denoised labels improve the performances of the downstream learning algorithm, for both small and large datasets. We further show that the signals we obtain can be used to effectively trade with binary strategies. We suggest that with proposed techniques, self-supervised learning constitutes a powerful framework for generating "better" financial labels that are useful for studying the underlying patterns of the market.

cs.LG↗

The Efficient Hedging Frontier with Deep Neural Networks

The trade off between risks and returns gives rise to multi-criteria optimisation problems that are well understood in finance, efficient frontiers being the tool to navigate their set of optimal solutions. Motivated by the recent advances in the use of deep neural networks in the context of hedging vanilla options when markets have frictions, we introduce the Efficient Hedging Frontier (EHF) by enriching the pipeline with a filtering step that allows to trade off costs and risks. This way, a trader's risk preference is matched with an expected hedging cost on the frontier, and the corresponding hedging strategy can be computed with a deep neural network. We further develop our framework to improve the EHF and find better hedging strategies. By adding a random forest classifier to the pipeline to forecast market movements, we show how the frontier shifts towards lower costs and reduced risks, which indicates that the overall hedging performances have improved. In addition, by designing a new recurrent neural network, we also find strategies on the frontier where hedging costs are even lower.

q-fin.CP↗

Better Model Selection with a new Definition of Feature Importance

Feature importance aims at measuring how crucial each input feature is for model prediction. It is widely used in feature engineering, model selection and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). In this paper, we propose a new tree-model explanation approach for model selection. Our novel concept leverages the Coefficient of Variation of a feature weight (measured in terms of the contribution of the feature to the prediction) to capture the dispersion of importance over samples. Extensive experimental results show that our novel feature explanation performs better than general cross validation method in model selection both in terms of time efficiency and accuracy performance.

stat.ML↗

Two-way Greedy: Algorithms for Imperfect Rationality

The realization that selfish interests need to be accounted for in the design of algorithms has produced many contributions in computer science under the umbrella of algorithmic mechanism design. Novel algorithmic properties and paradigms have been identified and studied. Our work stems from the observation that selfishness is different from rationality; agents will attempt to strategize whenever they perceive it to be convenient according to their imperfect rationality. Recent work has focused on a particular notion of imperfect rationality, namely absence of contingent reasoning skills, and defined obvious strategyproofness (OSP) as a way to deal with the selfishness of these agents. Essentially, this definition states that to care for the incentives of these agents, we need not only pay attention about the relationship between input and output, but also about the way the algorithm is run. However, it is not clear what algorithmic approaches must be used for OSP. In this paper, we show that, for binary allocation problems, OSP is fully captured by a combination of two well-known algorithmic techniques: forward and reverse greedy. We call two-way greedy this algorithmic design paradigm. Our main technical contribution establishes the connection between OSP and two-way greedy. We build upon the recently introduced cycle monotonicity technique for OSP. By means of novel structural properties of cycles and queries of OSP mechanisms, we fully characterize these mechanisms in terms of extremal implementations. These are protocols that ask each agent to consistently separate one extreme of their domain at the current history from the rest. Through the connection with the greedy paradigm, we are able to import a host of approximation bounds to OSP and strengthen the strategic properties of this family of algorithms. Finally, we begin exploring the power of two-way greedy for set systems.

cs.GT↗

Ascertaining price formation in cryptocurrency markets with DeepLearning

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger volatility and illiquidity. This paper is inspired by the recent success of using deep learning for stock market prediction. In this work, we analyze and present the characteristics of the cryptocurrency market in a high-frequency setting. In particular, we applied a deep learning approach to predict the direction of the mid-price changes on the upcoming tick. We monitored live tick-level data from $8$ cryptocurrency pairs and applied both statistical and machine learning techniques to provide a live prediction. We reveal that promising results are possible for cryptocurrencies, and in particular, we achieve a consistent $78\%$ accuracy on the prediction of the mid-price movement on live exchange rate of Bitcoins vs US dollars.

q-fin.GN↗

Social Cost Guarantees in Smart Route Guidance

We model and study the problem of assigning traffic in an urban road network infrastructure. In our model, each driver submits their intended destination and is assigned a route to follow that minimizes the social cost (i.e., travel distance of all the drivers). We assume drivers are strategic and try to manipulate the system (i.e., misreport their intended destination and/or deviate from the assigned route) if they can reduce their travel distance by doing so. Such strategic behavior is highly undesirable as it can lead to an overall suboptimal traffic assignment and cause congestion. To alleviate this problem, we develop moneyless mechanisms that are resilient to manipulation by the agents and offer provable approximation guarantees on the social cost obtained by the solution. We then empirically test the mechanisms studied in the paper, showing that they can be effectively used in practice in order to compute manipulation resistant traffic allocations.

cs.GT↗

On the approximation guarantee of obviously strategyproof mechanisms

Catering to the incentives of people with limited rationality is a challenging research direction that requires novel paradigms to design mechanisms and approximation algorithms. Obviously strategyproof (OSP) mechanisms have recently emerged as the concept of interest to this research agenda. However, the majority of the literature in the area has either highlighted the shortcomings of OSP or focused on the "right" definition rather than on the construction of these mechanisms. We here give the first set of tight results on the approximation guarantee of OSP mechanisms for scheduling related machines and a characterization of optimal OSP mechanisms for set system problems. By extending the well-known cycle monotonicity technique, we are able to concentrate on the algorithmic component of OSP mechanisms and provide some novel paradigms for their design.

cs.GT↗

Probabilistic Verification for Obviously Strategyproof Mechanisms

Obviously strategyproof (OSP) mechanisms maintain the incentive compatibility of agents that are not fully rational. They have been object of a number of studies since their recent definition. A research agenda, initiated in [Ferraioli&Ventre, AAAI 2017], is to find a small (possibly, the smallest) set of conditions allowing to implement an OSP mechanism. To this aim, we define a model of probabilistic verification wherein agents are caught misbehaving with a certain probability, and show how OSP mechanisms can implement every social choice function at the cost of either imposing very large fines for lies or verifying a linear number of agents.

cs.GT↗

Obvious Strategyproofness Needs Monitoring for Good Approximations

Obvious strategyproofness (OSP) is an appealing concept as it allows to maintain incentive compatibility even in the presence of agents that are not fully rational, e.g., those who struggle with contingent reasoning [Li, 2015]. However, it has been shown to impose some limitations, e.g., no OSP mechanism can return a stable matching [Ashlagi and Gonczarowski, 2015]. We here deepen the study of the limitations of OSP mechanisms by looking at their approximation guarantees for basic optimization problems paradigmatic of the area, i.e., machine scheduling and facility location. We prove a number of bounds on the approximation guarantee of OSP mechanisms, which show that OSP can come at a significant cost. However, rather surprisingly, we prove that OSP mechanisms can return optimal solutions when they use monitoring -- a novel mechanism design paradigm that introduces a mild level of scrutiny on agents' declarations [Kovacs et al., 2015].

cs.GT↗

Towards Better Models of Externalities in Sponsored Search Auctions

Sponsored Search Auctions (SSAs) arguably represent the problem at the intersection of computer science and economics with the deepest applications in real life. Within the realm of SSAs, the study of the effects that showing one ad has on the other ads, a.k.a. externalities in economics, is of utmost importance and has so far attracted the attention of much research. However, even the basic question of modeling the problem has so far escaped a definitive answer. The popular cascade model is arguably too idealized to really describe the phenomenon yet it allows a good comprehension of the problem. Other models, instead, describe the setting more adequately but are too complex to permit a satisfactory theoretical analysis. In this work, we attempt to get the best of both approaches: firstly, we define a number of general mathematical formulations for the problem in the attempt to have a rich description of externalities in SSAs and, secondly, prove a host of results drawing a nearly complete picture about the computational complexity of the problem. We complement these approximability results with some considerations about mechanism design in our context.

cs.GT↗

Metastability of Asymptotically Well-Behaved Potential Games

One of the main criticisms to game theory concerns the assumption of full rationality. Logit dynamics is a decentralized algorithm in which a level of irrationality (a.k.a. "noise") is introduced in players' behavior. In this context, the solution concept of interest becomes the logit equilibrium, as opposed to Nash equilibria. Logit equilibria are distributions over strategy profiles that possess several nice properties, including existence and uniqueness. However, there are games in which their computation may take time exponential in the number of players. We therefore look at an approximate version of logit equilibria, called metastable distributions, introduced by Auletta et al. [SODA 2012]. These are distributions that remain stable (i.e., players do not go too far from it) for a super-polynomial number of steps (rather than forever, as for logit equilibria). The hope is that these distributions exist and can be reached quickly by logit dynamics. We identify a class of potential games, called asymptotically well-behaved, for which the behavior of the logit dynamics is not chaotic as the number of players increases so to guarantee meaningful asymptotic results. We prove that any such game admits distributions which are metastable no matter the level of noise present in the system, and the starting profile of the dynamics. These distributions can be quickly reached if the rationality level is not too big when compared to the inverse of the maximum difference in potential. Our proofs build on results which may be of independent interest, including some spectral characterizations of the transition matrix defined by logit dynamics for generic games and the relationship of several convergence measures for Markov chains.

cs.GT↗

Decentralized Dynamics for Finite Opinion Games

Game theory studies situations in which strategic players can modify the state of a given system, due to the absence of a central authority. Solution concepts, such as Nash equilibrium, are defined to predict the outcome of such situations. In multi-player settings, it has been pointed out that to be realistic, a solution concept should be obtainable via processes that are decentralized and reasonably simple. Accordingly we look at the computation of solution concepts by means of decentralized dynamics. These are algorithms in which players move in turns to improve their own utility and the hope is that the system reaches an "equilibrium" quickly. We study these dynamics for the class of opinion games, recently introduced by Bindel et al. [Bindel et al., FOCS2011]. These are games, important in economics and sociology, that model the formation of an opinion in a social network. We study best-response dynamics and show upper and lower bounds on the convergence to Nash equilibria. We also study a noisy version of best-response dynamics, called logit dynamics, and prove a host of results about its convergence rate as the noise in the system varies. To get these results, we use a variety of techniques developed to bound the mixing time of Markov chains, including coupling, spectral characterizations and bottleneck ratio.

cs.GT↗

Combinatorial Auctions without Money

Algorithmic Mechanism Design attempts to marry computation and incentives, mainly by leveraging monetary transfers between designer and selfish agents involved. This is principally because in absence of money, very little can be done to enforce truthfulness. However, in certain applications, money is unavailable, morally unacceptable or might simply be at odds with the objective of the mechanism. For example, in Combinatorial Auctions (CAs), the paradigmatic problem of the area, we aim at solutions of maximum social welfare but still charge the society to ensure truthfulness. Additionally, truthfulness of CAs is poorly understood already in the case in which bidders happen to be interested in only two different sets of goods. We focus on the design of incentive-compatible CAs without money in the general setting of $k$-minded bidders. We trade monetary transfers with the observation that the mechanism can detect certain lies of the bidders: i.e., we study truthful CAs with verification and without money. We prove a characterization of truthful mechanisms, which makes an interesting parallel with the well-understood case of CAs with money for single-minded bidders. We then give a host of upper bounds on the approximation ratio obtained by either deterministic or randomized truthful mechanisms when the sets and valuations are private knowledge of the bidders. (Most of these mechanisms run in polynomial time and return solutions with (nearly) best possible approximation guarantees.) We complement these positive results with a number of lower bounds (some of which are essentially tight) that hold in the easier case of public sets. We thus provide an almost complete picture of truthfully approximating CAs in this general setting with multi-dimensional bidders.

cs.GT↗

Ranking Games that have Competitiveness-based Strategies

An extensive literature in economics and social science addresses contests, in which players compete to outperform each other on some measurable criterion, often referred to as a player's score, or output. Players incur costs that are an increasing function of score, but receive prizes for obtaining higher score than their competitors. In this paper we study finite games that are discretized contests, and the problems of computing exact and approximate Nash equilibria. Our motivation is the worst-case hardness of Nash equilibrium computation, and the resulting interest in important classes of games that admit polynomial-time algorithms. For games that have a tie-breaking rule for players' scores, we present a polynomial-time algorithm for computing an exact equilibrium in the 2-player case, and for multiple players, a characterization of Nash equilibria that shows an interesting parallel between these games and unrestricted 2-player games in normal form. When ties are allowed, via a reduction from these games to a subclass of anonymous games, we give approximation schemes for two special cases: constant-sized set of strategies, and constant number of players.

cs.GT↗

Using Lotteries to Approximate the Optimal Revenue

There has been much recent work on the revenue-raising properties of truthful mechanisms for selling goods to selfish bidders. Typically the revenue of a mechanism is compared against a benchmark (such as, the maximum revenue obtainable by an omniscient seller selling at a fixed price to at least two customers), with a view to understanding how much lower the mechanism's revenue is than the benchmark, in the worst case. We study this issue in the context of {\em lotteries}, where the seller may sell a probability of winning an item. We are interested in two general issues. Firstly, we aim at using the true optimum revenue as benchmark for our auctions. Secondly, we study the extent to which the expressive power resulting from lotteries, helps to improve the worst-case ratio. We study this in the well-known context of {\em digital goods}, where the production cost is zero. We show that in this scenario, collusion-resistant lotteries (these are lotteries for which no coalition of bidders exchanging side payments has an advantage in lying) are as powerful as truthful ones.

cs.GT↗

On the Approximation Performance of Fictitious Play in Finite Games

We study the performance of Fictitious Play, when used as a heuristic for finding an approximate Nash equilibrium of a 2-player game. We exhibit a class of 2-player games having payoffs in the range [0,1] that show that Fictitious Play fails to find a solution having an additive approximation guarantee significantly better than 1/2. Our construction shows that for n times n games, in the worst case both players may perpetually have mixed strategies whose payoffs fall short of the best response by an additive quantity 1/2 - O(1/n^(1-delta)) for arbitrarily small delta. We also show an essentially matching upper bound of 1/2 - O(1/n).

cs.GT↗