arXiv subjects

Carol Xuan Long

Publications and source records attributed to Carol Xuan Long.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reliability and Effectiveness of Autonomous AI Agents in Supply Chain Management

This paper studies the performance and reliability of autonomous generative AI agents in multi-echelon supply chains using the MIT Beer Game. We examine how model choice, operational guardrails, centralized data sharing, and prompt design affect system performance. In our best-performing configuration, GenAI agents reduce total supply-chain costs by up to 80% relative to human teams. Despite strong average performance, autonomous agents can exhibit substantial run-to-run instability, generating volatile procurement decisions and large tail costs. We characterize this phenomenon as agent bullwhip, the amplification of decision instability in autonomous multi-agent systems. We show that this instability can propagate across echelons and compound over time, even when the underlying demand path is held fixed. We then evaluate two approaches for improving reliability: reinforcement-learning post-training and operational guardrails. Both reduce tail events and mitigate agent bullwhip, but they operate through different mechanisms and require different levels of information and model access. Reinforcement-learning post-training delivers the largest gains in reliability and system performance when system-level feedback is available, while guardrails provide a simple training-free alternative for constraining extreme decisions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ArcMark: Distortion-Free Multi-Byte LLM Watermark via Optimal Transport

Watermarking is an important tool for promoting the responsible use of large language models (LLMs). Existing watermarks insert a signal into generated tokens that either flags LLM-generated text (zero-bit watermarking) or encodes more complex messages (multi-bit watermarking). Though a number of recent approaches insert multiple bits into text without perturbing average next-token predictions, they largely extend design principles from the zero-bit setting, such as encoding a single bit per token. In contrast, a watermarker capable of embedding multiple bytes into the text would dramatically increase the potential applications, by embedding information such as the ID of the user who submitted the prompt, the precise model version that was used, or even the prompt itself. We address this problem by introducing ArcMark: a new watermark construction based on coding and information-theoretic principles that is capable of reliably embedding multiple bytes of information into just a few hundred tokens, without any distortion of the underlying LLM next-token distribution. We derive ArcMark by formulating the distortion-free watermarking problem as a channel coding problem, and deriving an information-theoretic channel capacity that establishes the fundamental limit of embedding information in LLM output in a distortion-free manner. This capacity formulation informs the design of ArcMark. In practice, ArcMark outperforms competing multi-bit distortion-free watermarks in terms of reconstruction accuracy, including in the face of attacks that alter a subset of the LLM text. ArcMark output is also shown to be indistinguishable from unwatermarked text in terms of perplexity, and in downstream task quality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Trustworthy AI: Ensuring Reliability and Accountability from Models to Agents

In this thesis, we develop algorithms with theoretical guarantees for ensuring reliability and accountability of Machine Learning (ML) systems. As ML systems evolve from predictive models to generative models and autonomous agents, the landscape of trustworthy AI has shifted. This thesis introduces tools grounded in information theory, optimization, and statistical learning to mitigate bias, reduce arbitrary decisions, ensure content provenance, and evaluate LLM-driven agents in autonomous settings. Towards mitigating bias and arbitrariness in traditional ML models, we introduce a kernel-based method to achieve multiaccuracy across complex subpopulations that traditional demographic categories may overlook. We also develop methods to address predictive multiplicity, where equally accurate models yield conflicting individual predictions. We ensure the accountability in generative AI through watermarking large language models (LLMs). We characterize the information-theoretic trade-off between watermark detection and text distortion and derive optimal watermarking strategies by leveraging optimal transport and coding theory. Empirical evaluations show our watermarks achieve a superior detection-quality tradeoff across language generation and coding tasks. Finally, we evaluate autonomous LLM agents in multi-agent environments through the first simulator of a fully LLM-driven supply chain. LLM agents offer significant performance gains, outperforming human teams and reducing costs by up to 67%, but also introduce systemic risks, including costly tail events.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

HeavyWater and SimplexWater: Distortion-Free LLM Watermarks for Low-Entropy Next-Token Predictions

Large language model (LLM) watermarks enable authentication of text provenance, curb misuse of machine-generated text, and promote trust in AI systems. Current watermarks operate by changing the next-token predictions output by an LLM. The updated (i.e., watermarked) predictions depend on random side information produced, for example, by hashing previously generated tokens. LLM watermarking is particularly challenging in low-entropy generation tasks -- such as coding -- where next-token predictions are near-deterministic. In this paper, we propose an optimization framework for watermark design. Our goal is to understand how to most effectively use random side information in order to maximize the likelihood of watermark detection and minimize the distortion of generated text. Our analysis informs the design of two new watermarks: HeavyWater and SimplexWater. Both watermarks are tunable, gracefully trading-off between detection accuracy and text distortion. They can also be applied to any LLM and are agnostic to side information generation. We examine the performance of HeavyWater and SimplexWater through several benchmarks, demonstrating that they can achieve high watermark detection accuracy with minimal compromise of text generation quality, particularly in the low-entropy regime. Our theoretical analysis also reveals surprising new connections between LLM watermarking and coding theory. The code implementation can be found in https://github.com/DorTsur/HeavyWater_SimplexWater

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

Optimized Couplings for Watermarking Large Language Models

Large-language models (LLMs) are now able to produce text that is, in many cases, seemingly indistinguishable from human-generated content. This has fueled the development of watermarks that imprint a ``signal'' in LLM-generated text with minimal perturbation of an LLM's output. This paper provides an analysis of text watermarking in a one-shot setting. Through the lens of hypothesis testing with side information, we formulate and analyze the fundamental trade-off between watermark detection power and distortion in generated textual quality. We argue that a key component in watermark design is generating a coupling between the side information shared with the watermark detector and a random partition of the LLM vocabulary. Our analysis identifies the optimal coupling and randomization strategy under the worst-case LLM next-token distribution that satisfies a min-entropy constraint. We provide a closed-form expression of the resulting detection rate under the proposed scheme and quantify the cost in a max-min sense. Finally, we provide an array of numerical results, comparing the proposed scheme with the theoretical optimum and existing schemes, in both synthetic data and LLM watermarking. Our code is available at https://github.com/Carol-Long/CC_Watermark

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Multi-Group Proportional Representation in Retrieval

Image search and retrieval tasks can perpetuate harmful stereotypes, erase cultural identities, and amplify social disparities. Current approaches to mitigate these representational harms balance the number of retrieved items across population groups defined by a small number of (often binary) attributes. However, most existing methods overlook intersectional groups determined by combinations of group attributes, such as gender, race, and ethnicity. We introduce Multi-Group Proportional Representation (MPR), a novel metric that measures representation across intersectional groups. We develop practical methods for estimating MPR, provide theoretical guarantees, and propose optimization algorithms to ensure MPR in retrieval. We demonstrate that existing methods optimizing for equal and proportional representation metrics may fail to promote MPR. Crucially, our work shows that optimizing MPR yields more proportional representation across multiple intersectional groups specified by a rich function class, often with minimal compromise in retrieval accuracy.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Arbitrariness Lies Beyond the Fairness-Accuracy Frontier

Machine learning tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve similar performance yet produce conflicting outputs for individual samples -- a phenomenon known as predictive multiplicity. We demonstrate that fairness interventions in machine learning optimized solely for group fairness and accuracy can exacerbate predictive multiplicity. Consequently, state-of-the-art fairness interventions can mask high predictive multiplicity behind favorable group fairness and accuracy metrics. We argue that a third axis of ``arbitrariness'' should be considered when deploying models to aid decision-making in applications of individual-level impact. To address this challenge, we propose an ensemble algorithm applicable to any fairness intervention that provably ensures more consistent predictions.

cs.LG↗