arXiv subjects

Caroline B. Owen

Publications and source records attributed to Caroline B. Owen.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Population-level correlations in Bayesian statistics: an illustrative model for gravitational-wave astronomy

With increasingly large numbers of gravitational-wave events, population inference is now beginning to move beyond predictions of marginal distributions and to probe correlations between compact-binary parameters such as masses, spins, and redshifts. These correlations have strong constraining power for both astrophysics and tests of general relativity. In this paper, we present an idealized analytical model to study the interplay between single-event correlations, systematic biases, and population-level correlations. With this, we investigate the potential emergence of false-positive measurements of population-level correlations. We quantify how the presence of correlations at the single-event level between a pair of parameters increases the uncertainty of population-level correlations for those parameters, potentially obscuring the true underlying population correlation if present. We also find that if waveform systematics lead to biases that are correlated across the catalog (which is likely, because certain regions of the parameter space are more difficult to model), this can be effectively absorbed by a population analysis that targets correlations and can be misinterpreted as such. This simple Gaussian-based model may serve as a broad compass for future, more detailed explorations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty-aware waveform modeling for high signal-to-noise ratio gravitational-wave inference

Semi-analytical waveform models for black hole binaries require calibration against numerical relativity waveforms to accurately represent the late inspiral and merger, where analytical approximations fail. After the fitting coefficients contained in the model are optimized, they are typically held fixed when the model is used to infer astrophysical parameters from real gravitational-wave data. Though point estimates for the fitting parameters are adequate for most applications, they provide an incomplete description of the fit, as they do not account for either the quality of the fit or the intrinsic uncertainties in the numerical relativity data. Using the IMRPhenomD model, we illustrate how to propagate these uncertainties into the inference by sampling the fitting coefficients from a prior distribution and marginalizing over them. The prior distribution is constructed by ensuring that the model is compatible with a training set of numerical relativity surrogates, within a predefined mismatch threshold. This approach demonstrates a pathway to mitigate systematic bias in high signal-to-noise events, particularly when envisioned for the next generation of semi-analytical models.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Constraining dark-sector effects using gravitational waves from compact binary inspirals

Gravitational wave observations are a powerful tool to constrain fundamental physics. This work considers dark matter that carries charge under a dark abelian massive vector field. If such dark matter is bound inside coalescing neutron stars, the presence of the new force will modify the total energy of the binary, and the emission of dark radiation modes will impact the rate of inspiral. At leading order, the dark matter corrections introduce a Yukawa term to the potential energy and a dipole radiation mode. We calculate modifications to the binary inspiral waveform to first post-Newtonian order, incorporate these corrections into a state-of-the-art waveform model for neutron star binaries, and use this model in a Bayesian parameter estimation analysis on real data collected by current, second-generation ground-based detectors. Through this study, we place the first robust constraints on the Yukawa interaction strength and dipole emission parameter. We find that the strongest constraints are obtained from analysis of the GW170817 event, for which the Yukawa interaction strength is constrained to be less than $O(10^{-2})$ and the dipole emission parameter is less than $O(10^{-4})$ at 90% credibility.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Waveform accuracy and systematic uncertainties in current gravitational wave observations

The post-Newtonian formalism plays an integral role in the models used to extract information from gravitational wave data, but models that incorporate this formalism are inherently approximations. Disagreement between an approximate model and nature will produce mismodeling biases in the parameters inferred from data, introducing systematic error. We here carry out a proof-of-principle study of such systematic error by considering signals produced by quasi-circular, inspiraling black hole binaries through an injection and recovery campaign. In particular, we study how unknown, but calibrated, higher-order post-Newtonian corrections to the gravitational wave phase impact systematic error in recovered parameters. As a first study, we produce injected data of non-spinning binaries as detected by a current, second-generation network of ground-based observatories and recover them with models of varying PN order in the phase. We find that the truncation of higher order (>3.5) post-Newtonian corrections to the phase can produce significant systematic error even at signal-to-noise ratios of current detector networks. We propose a method to mitigate systematic error by marginalizing over our ignorance in the waveform through the inclusion of higher-order post-Newtonian coefficients as new model parameters. We show that this method can reduce systematic error greatly at the cost of increasing statistical error.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Petrov Type, Principal Null Directions, and Killing Tensors of Slowly-Rotating Black Holes in Quadratic Gravity

The ability to test general relativity in extreme gravity regimes using gravitational wave observations from current ground-based or future space-based detectors motivates the mathematical study of the symmetries of black holes in modified theories of gravity. In this paper we focus on spinning black hole solutions in two quadratic gravity theories: dynamical Chern-Simons and scalar Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We compute the principal null directions, Weyl scalars, and complex null tetrad in the small-coupling, slow rotation approximation for both theories, confirming that both spacetimes are Petrov type I. Additionally, we solve the Killing equation through rank 6 in dynamical Chern-Simons gravity and rank 2 in scalar Gauss-Bonnet gravity, showing that there is no nontrivial Killing tensor through those ranks for each theory. We therefore conjecture that the still-unknown, exact, quadratic-gravity, black-hole solutions do not possess a fourth constant of motion.

gr-qc↗