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Caroline Morley

Publications and source records attributed to Caroline Morley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

The Case for High-Resolution Infrared Spectroscopy with the Habitable Worlds Observatory

A high-resolution near-IR spectroscopy capability on the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) could strongly and efficiently advance many of the mission's goals. The technical barriers that made such a capability unfeasible on previous missions have largely been eliminated. Many HWO science case development documents require high spectral resolution in the IR and others would benefit significantly from it. High resolution improves the detectability of weak, unresolved features, aids identification of those features and provides additional information about radial velocity and line shape. It will be significantly easier to remove contaminating stellar features from high-resolution data. Silicon diffractive optics, immersion gratings and grisms, together with the new generation of low-noise, low dark-current avalanche photodiode arrays, make it possible to design a very compact high-resolution spectrograph that can cover the entire 1.1-2.0 micron band in a single exposure that would realize all of these advantages. We outline here the case for such an instrument and the technology development pathway needed to mature it in preparation for the HWO mission.

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arXiv2026

The dark and featureless surface of rocky exoplanet LHS 3844 b from JWST mid-infrared spectroscopy

JWST has opened a new era in the study of rocky exoplanets, enabling direct characterization of their surfaces with mid-infrared spectroscopy. Different types of rock have distinct spectral features that are diagnostic of the chemical composition and other physical properties like surface texture. Measurements of these features can provide valuable clues about a planet's geologic history and interior processes. Here we report a JWST 5-12 micron thermal emission spectrum for the rocky exoplanet LHS 3844 b. It is best matched by a dark, low-silica surface, such as basalt or other olivine-rich materials. The spectrum rules out fresh powder surfaces; however, space weathering can darken the powders and make them more consistent with the data. The data also disfavor trace concentrations of CO$_2$ or SO$_2$ gas (with 5-sigma and 3-sigma upper limits of 100 mbar and 10 microbar, respectively). Taken together, these results are well fit by an old, space-weathered surface with no evidence of accumulated volcanic gases.

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arXiv2026

Worlds Next Door. IV. Mapping the Late Stages of Giant Planet Evolution with a Precise Dynamical Mass and Luminosity for $\epsilon$ Ind Ab

We present new JWST/NIRCam 4-5 $\mu$m (F410M, F430M) and JWST/MIRI 18-25 $\mu$m (F1800W, F2100W, F2550W) imaging detections of the nearby (3.6 pc) cold (275 K) gas giant exoplanet $\epsilon$ Ind Ab. The F2550W detection of $\epsilon$ Ind Ab constitutes the longest wavelength image of an exoplanet acquired to date. Combining three decades of radial velocity monitoring, Gaia-Hipparcos absolute astrometry, and relative astrometry from direct imaging (including the new NIRCam astrometry), we conduct a comprehensive re-analysis of $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's orbit and obtain a dynamical mass $M_{\rm Ab} = 6.5^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\;M_{\rm Jup}$. Using $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's NIRCam and MIRI photometry, we assemble the first 4-25 $\mu$m spectral energy distribution (SED) of a cold gas giant outside the Solar System. The NIRCam photometry supports a metal-enriched atmosphere for $\epsilon$ Ind Ab based on analysis with atmospheric model grids, consistent with predictions from the giant planet mass-metallicity relation. While the current data do not provide definitive evidence for or against the presence of water ice clouds, we tentatively find that the H$_2$O vapor absorption-dominated F2550W photometry is systematically brighter ($>1\sigma$, but $<2\sigma$) than predictions from cloud-free/rainout chemistry models and better explained by a cloudy model. We calculate a bolometric luminosity of $\log L_{\rm bol}/L_\odot = -7.23 \pm 0.03$ dex by directly integrating $\epsilon$ Ind Ab's SED. Combining this with the planet's dynamical mass and age ($3.5 \pm 1.0$ Gyr), we demonstrate excellent agreement with evolutionary model predictions in a new regime of low luminosities, low masses, and old ages. Our results establish $\epsilon$ Ind Ab as a benchmark system for planetary evolution studies and set the stage for the detailed atmospheric characterization of this temperate extrasolar world.

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arXiv2026

Worlds Next Door. III. Indirect Evidence for Enhanced Atmospheric Metallicity and/or the Presence of Water Clouds in the Nearest Jupiter-analog $\epsilon$ Eri b

We present the most sensitive direct imaging search for the nearest ($d = 3.2$ pc) Jupiter-analog exoplanet, $\epsilon$ Eri b, with JWST/NIRCam coronagraphy between 4-5 $\mu$m (F444W). We achieve a 5$\sigma$ contrast sensitivity $\approx3.0\times10^{-7}$ ($\Delta \approx 16.3$ mag) in the F444W filter at the expected planet separation of $\approx$1". This is the deepest 4-5 $\mu$m contrast performance achieved for any JWST/NIRCam observation to date at these separations (and $>10\times$ better than ground-based limits). Yet, the planet remains elusive to imaging. We update the star's age to $1.1\pm0.1$ Gyr, older than previous age estimates, using the latest gyrochronology relations. This significantly impacts $\epsilon$ Eri b's inferred effective temperature ($T_{\rm eff}$), which is now expected to lie between 150-200 K based on evolutionary models for a 1 $M_{\rm Jup}$ planet. Using cloud-free Sonora Flame Skimmer models and custom PICASO patchy cloud models in the above $T_{\rm eff}$ range, we find that the F444W non-detection of $\epsilon$ Eri b can be explained by a metal-enriched atmosphere and/or an atmosphere containing water ice clouds. Both possibilities suggest that $\epsilon$ Eri b's atmosphere is strikingly similar to that of Jupiter in our Solar System. Alternatively, if we do not enforce the dynamical mass ($0.98 \pm 0.09\;M_{\rm Jup}$), a solar metallicity, cloud-free, $\lesssim0.81\;M_{\rm Jup}$ planet would be consistent with the NIRCam upper limit based on the Sonora Flame Skimmer evolutionary models. Finally, we place limits on the size of a potential ring system using the NIRCam/F210M data and discuss the opportunity to directly image $\epsilon$ Eri b with additional JWST observations, the Roman Coronagraph Instrument, the ExtraSolar Coronagraph on the Lazuli Observatory, and EELT/METIS.

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arXiv2026

Simulations of Electron Beam Interactions in Brown Dwarf Atmospheres

Over two decades ago, the first detection of electron cyclotron maser instability (ECMI) radio emission from a brown dwarf confirmed the presence of aurorally precipitating electrons on these objects. This detection established that brown dwarfs can exhibit magnetic activity that is planetary and auroral, rather than stellar in nature. This discovery motivated ongoing observational searches for the corresponding optical, ultraviolet (UV), and infrared (IR) auroral emission expected based on solar system analogs. The continuing nondetection of such auroral emission indicates important differences exist between auroral processes on brown dwarfs and solar system planets. In this work, we implement a Monte Carlo simulation of monoenergetic electron beams interacting with brown dwarf atmospheres, as a step towards understanding the physics of brown dwarf auroral emission. We detail the algorithm and underlying assumptions, and validate against previously published Jovian results (Hiraki et al. 2008). Our results agree well with literature, with some discrepancy from our updated interaction cross sections. We demonstrate the applicability of our simulation across the range of surface gravities and effective temperatures of radio-emitting brown dwarfs. We present an analytic parameterization of interaction rates based on our finding that atmospheric column density governs the interaction profiles. We apply this parameterization to calculate the total volumetric interaction rates and energy deposition rate for representative electron beam energy spectra enabling future predictions for spectra of aurorally emitting brown dwarfs. Simulations of high energy electron interactions with substellar hydrogen-dominated atmospheres will guide observational searches for multi-wavelength auroral features beyond the solar system.

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arXiv2025

A Deep Search for Exomoons Around WISE 0855 With JWST

JWST is collecting time-series observations of many free-floating planets (FFPs) to study their weather, but these light curves are the ideal datasets to search for exomoons that transit the FFP during observations. In this paper, we present observations of the planetary-mass Y dwarf ($T=250-285K$, $M = 6.5\pm3.5 M_{Jup}$, d = 2.3$\,$pc) WISE J085510.83-071442.5 (WISE 0855), whose proximity and brightness make it ideal for a transiting exomoon search. We examine 11 hours of time-series spectra from the JWST Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) whose sensitivity, in combination with Gaussian process (GP) modeling, allows for the disentanglement of exomoon transits from WISE 0855's variability. We do not find statistically significant evidence of an exomoon transit in this dataset. Using injection and recovery tests of artificial transits for depths ranging between 0.1-1% (0.35-1.12 $R_{\oplus}$) we explore the exomoon parameter space where we could successfully detect transits. For transit depths $\geq 0.5\%$ (1.96$\,R_{\text{Titan}}$), our detection rate is 96%, which, for WISE 0855, corresponds to a moon with a companion-to-host mass ratio similar to that of Titan and Saturn. Given our sensitivity, transit probabilities, and our observational duration, we determine a $\sim$91% probability of detecting a Titan mass analog exomoon after 18 such observations if every observed system hosts a Titan mass analog exomoon in a Galilean-like system. This suggests that JWST observations of dozens of FFPs could yield meaningful constraints on the occurrence rate of exomoons. This paper is the first demonstration that JWST is sensitive to Galilean moon mass analogs around FFPs.

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arXiv2025

X-SHYNE: X-Shooter spectra of young exoplanet analogs II. Presentation and analysis of the full library

The X-SHYNE library is a homogeneous sample of 43 medium-resolution (R=8000) infrared (0.3-2.5um) spectra of young (<500Myr), low-mass (<20Mjup), and cold (Teff=600-2000K) isolated brown dwarfs and wide-separation companions observed with the VLT/X-Shooter instrument. To characterize our targets, we performed a global comparative analysis. We first applied a semi-empirical approach. By refining their age and bolometric luminosity, we derived key atmospheric and physical properties, such as Teff, mass, surface gravity (g), and radius, using the evolutionary model COND03. These results were then compared with the results from a synthetic analysis based on three self-consistent atmospheric models. To compare our spectra with these grids we used the Bayesian inference code ForMoSA. We found similar Lbol estimates between both approaches, but an underestimated Teff from the cloudy models, likely due to a lack of absorbers that could dominate the J and H bands of early L. We also observed a discrepancy in the log(g) estimates, which are dispersed between 3.5 and 5.5 dex for mid-L objects. We interpreted this as a bias caused by a range of rotational velocities leading to cloud migration toward equatorial latitudes, combined with a variety of viewing angles that result in different observed atmospheric properties (cloud column densities, atmospheric pressures, etc.). Finally, while providing robust estimates of [M/H] and C/O for individual objects remains challenging, the X-SHYNE library globally suggests solar values, which are consistent with a formation via stellar formation mechanisms. This study highlights the strength of homogeneous datasets in performing comparative analyses, reducing the impact of systematics, and ensuring robust conclusions while avoiding over-interpretation.

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arXiv2025

JWST Coronagraphic Images of 14 Her c: a Cold Giant Planet in a Dynamically Hot, Multi-planet System

Most observed multi-planet systems are coplanar, in a dynamically "cold" configuration of concentric orbits like our own Solar System. With the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) we have detected 14 Her c, the first mature and cold exoplanet directly imaged in a dynamically "hot", multi-planet system. With large eccentricities and a nonzero mutual inclination, the present-day architecture of this system points to a turbulent past and ongoing angular momentum exchange between the planetary orbits of 14 Her b and c. The temperature of 14 Her c rivals both the coldest imaged exoplanet and the coldest known brown dwarf. Moreover, its photometry at 4.4 mu is consistent with the presence of carbon disequilibrium chemistry and water ice clouds in its atmosphere. 14 Her c presents a unique laboratory to study giant planet formation, dynamical evolution of multi-planet system architectures, and atmospheric composition and dynamics in extremely cold worlds.

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arXiv2025

Diversity of Cold Worlds: A Near Complete Spectral Energy Distribution for 2MASS J04151954-0935066 using JWST

We present the a near complete spectral energy distribution (SED) for an extrasolar world: the T8 brown dwarf 2MASS~J04151954$-$0935066. Spanning from optical to mid-infrared (0.7--20.4 micron) wavelengths, the SED for this substellar atmosphere is constructed from new JWST NIRSpec G395H ($R\sim$2700) and Magellan FIRE echelle ($R\sim$8000) near-infrared spectra, along with MIRI mid-infrared photometry complemented by spectra from Keck I, IRTF, Magellan, AKARI, Spitzer and photometry from various surveys and missions. The NIRSpec G395H spectrum reveals strong molecular absorptions from NH$_{3}$, CH$_{4}$, H$_{2}$S, CO$_{2}$ and H$_{2}$O at approximately 3.00, 3.35, 3.95, 4.25, and 5.00 micron respectively, along with the presence of a CO absorption feature detected mainly at $\sim$ 4.6 micron. We detect no absorption of near-infrared K I doublets in the $R\sim8000$ FIRE spectra. In the mid-infrared IRS spectrum, we tentatively identify a new CO$_{2}$ feature at 14--16 micron. The comprehensive SED allows us to empirically constrain bolometric luminosity, effective temperature, mass and radius. Additionally, we demonstrate that the NIRSpec G395H resolution, the highest allowable by JWST, enables a precise radial velocity measurement of $47.1\pm1.8$ km s$^{-1}$ for the object, in agreement with previous measurements.

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arXiv2025

The James Webb Space Telescope NIRSpec-PRISM Transmission Spectrum of the Super-Puff, Kepler-51d

Kepler-51 is a 500 Myr G dwarf hosting three "super-puffs" and one low-mass non-transiting planet. Kepler-51d, the coolest (T_eq ~ 350 K) transiting planet in this system, is also one of the lowest density super-puffs known to date (rho_p = 0.038 +/- 0.009 g/cm^3). With a planetary mass of Mp = 5.6 +/- 1.2 Earth masses and a radius of Rp = 9.32 +/- 0.18 Earth radii, the observed properties of this planet are not readily explained by most planet formation theories. Hypotheses explaining Kepler-51d's low density range from a substantial H/He envelope comprising more than 30% of its mass, to a high-altitude haze layer, to a tilted ring system. To test these hypotheses, we present the NIRSpec-PRISM 0.6-5.3 micron transmission spectrum of Kepler-51d observed by the James Webb Space Telescope. We find a spectrum best fit by a sloped line covering the entire wavelength range. Based on forward modeling and atmosphere retrievals, Kepler-51d likely possesses a low-metallicity atmosphere with high-altitude hazes of submicron particle sizes spanning pressures of 1-100 microbars. However, the spectrum could also be explained by a tilted ring with an estimated lifetime on the order of ~0.1 Myr. We also investigate the stellar activity of this young Sun-like star, extracting a spot temperature significantly hotter than sunspots and spot covering fractions on the order of 0.1-10%, depending on the assumed spot parameters.

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arXiv2025

The Diversity of Cold Worlds: a blended-light binary straddling the T/Y transition in brown dwarfs

We present the first brown dwarf spectral binary characterized with JWST: WISE J014656.66+423410.0, the coldest blended-light brown dwarf binary straddling the T/Y transition. We obtained a moderate resolution (R$\sim$2700) G395H spectrum of this unresolved binary with JWST/NIRSpec and we fit it to late-T and Y dwarf spectra from JWST/NIRSpec, and model spectra of comparable temperatures, both as individual spectra and pairs mimicking an unresolved binary system. We find that this tightly-separated binary is likely composed of two unequal-brightness sources with a magnitude difference of $0.50\pm0.08$ mag in IRAC [4.5] and a secondary $1.01\pm0.13$ mag redder than the primary in [3.6]-[4.5]. Despite the large color difference between the best fit primary and secondary, their temperature difference is only $92\pm23$\,K, a feature reminiscing of the L/T transition. Carbon disequilibrium chemistry strongly shapes the mid-infrared spectra of these sources, as a complex function of metallicity and surface gravity. While a larger library of JWST/NIRSpec spectra is needed to conclusively examine the peculiarities of blended-light sources, this spectral binary is a crucial pathfinder to both understand the spectral features of planetary-mass atmospheres and detect binarity in unresolved, moderate-resolution spectra of the coldest brown dwarfs.

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arXiv2024

The MIRI Exoplanets Orbiting White Dwarfs (MEOW) Survey: Mid-Infrared Excess Reveals a Giant Planet Candidate around a Nearby White Dwarf

The MIRI Exoplanets Orbiting White dwarfs (MEOW) Survey is a cycle 2 JWST program to search for exoplanets around dozens of nearby white dwarfs via infrared excess and direct imaging. In this paper, we present the detection of mid-infrared excess at 18 and 21 microns towards the bright (V = 11.4) metal-polluted white dwarf WD 0310-688. The source of the IR excess is almost certainly within the system; the probability of background contamination is $<0.1\%$. While the IR excess could be due to an unprecedentedly small and cold debris disk, it is best explained by a $3.0^{+5.5}_{-1.9}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$ cold (248$^{+84}_{-61}$ K) giant planet orbiting the white dwarf within the forbidden zone (the region where planets are expected to be destroyed during the star's red giant phase). We constrain the source of the IR excess to an orbital separation of 0.1-2 AU, marking the first discovery of a white dwarf planet candidate within this range of separations. WD 0310-688 is a young remnant of an A or late B-type star, and at just 10.4 pc it is now the closest white dwarf with a known planet candidate. Future JWST observations could distinguish the two scenarios by either detecting or ruling out spectral features indicative of a planet atmosphere.

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arXiv2024

A Comprehensive Analysis Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m Phase Curve of Hot Jupiters

Although exoplanetary science was not initially projected to be a substantial part of the Spitzer mission, its exoplanet observations set the stage for current and future surveys with JWST and Ariel. We present a comprehensive reduction and analysis of Spitzer's 4.5 micron phase curves of 29 hot Jupiters on low-eccentricity orbits. The analysis, performed with the Spitzer Phase Curve Analysis (SPCA) pipeline, confirms that BLISS mapping is the best detrending scheme for most, but not all, observations. Visual inspection remains necessary to ensure consistency across detrending methods due to the diversity of phase curve data and systematics. Regardless of the model selection scheme - whether using the lowest-BIC or a uniform detrending approach - we observe the same trends, or lack thereof. We explore phase curve trends as a function of irradiation temperature, orbital period, planetary radius, mass, and stellar effective temperature. We discuss the trends that are robustly detected and provide potential explanations for those that are not observed. While it is almost tautological that planets receiving greater instellation are hotter, we are still far from confirming dynamical theories of heat transport in hot Jupiter atmospheres due to the sample's diversity. Even among planets with similar temperatures, other factors like rotation and metallicity vary significantly. Larger, curated sample sizes and higher-fidelity phase curve measurements from JWST and Ariel are needed to firmly establish the parameters governing day-night heat transport on synchronously rotating planets.

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arXiv2023

Recovering simulated planet and disk signals using SCALES aperture masking

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) instrument is a lenslet-based integral field spectrograph that will operate at 2 to 5 microns, imaging and characterizing colder (and thus older) planets than current high-contrast instruments. Its spatial resolution for distant science targets and/or close-in disks and companions could be improved via interferometric techniques such as sparse aperture masking. We introduce a nascent Python package, NRM-artist, that we use to design several SCALES masks to be non-redundant and to have uniform coverage in Fourier space. We generate high-fidelity mock SCALES data using the scalessim package for SCALES' low spectral resolution modes across its 2 to 5 micron bandpass. We include realistic noise from astrophysical and instrument sources, including Keck adaptive optics and Poisson noise. We inject planet and disk signals into the mock datasets and subsequently recover them to test the performance of SCALES sparse aperture masking and to determine the sensitivity of various mask designs to different science signals.

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arXiv2023

Simulating medium-spectral-resolution exoplanet characterization with SCALES angular/reference differential imaging

SCALES (Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy) is a 2 - 5 micron high-contrast lenslet-based integral field spectrograph (IFS) designed to characterize exoplanets and their atmospheres. The SCALES medium-spectral-resolution mode uses a lenslet subarray with a 0.34 x 0.36 arcsecond field of view which allows for exoplanet characterization at increased spectral resolution. We explore the sensitivity limitations of this mode by simulating planet detections in the presence of realistic noise sources. We use the SCALES simulator scalessim to generate high-fidelity mock observations of planets that include speckle noise from their host stars, as well as other atmospheric and instrumental noise effects. We employ both angular and reference differential imaging as methods of disentangling speckle noise from the injected planet signals. These simulations allow us to assess the feasibility of speckle deconvolution for SCALES medium resolution data, and to test whether one approach outperforms another based on planet angular separations and contrasts.

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arXiv2023

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES): driving science cases and expected outcomes

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) is a $2-5~μ$m, high-contrast integral field spectrograph (IFS) currently being built for Keck Observatory. With both low ($R\lesssim250$) and medium ($R\sim3500-7000$) spectral resolution IFS modes, SCALES will detect and characterize significantly colder exoplanets than those accessible with near-infrared ($\sim1-2~μ$m) high-contrast spectrographs. This will lead to new progress in exoplanet atmospheric studies, including detailed characterization of benchmark systems that will advance the state of the art of atmospheric modeling. SCALES' unique modes, while designed specifically for direct exoplanet characterization, will enable a broader range of novel (exo)planetary observations as well as galactic and extragalactic studies. Here we present the science cases that drive the design of SCALES. We describe an end-to-end instrument simulator that we use to track requirements, and show simulations of expected science yields for each driving science case. We conclude with a discussion of preparations for early science when the instrument sees first light in $\sim2025$.

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arXiv2023

Potential Atmospheric Compositions of TRAPPIST-1 c constrained by JWST/MIRI Observations at 15 $μ$m

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$σ$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$σ$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$σ$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$σ$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$σ$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis.

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arXiv2023

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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