arXiv subjects

Caroline Wagner

Publications and source records attributed to Caroline Wagner.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AI systems out-persuade expert humans

Many societal decisions are settled by contests of persuasion. Conversational AI is a powerful new entrant in these contests, but whether it can out-persuade skilled and highly incentivized humans has remained unclear. Here, in a series of four preregistered experiments (n = 18,978 conversations from 6,923 people), we pitted AI systems against a range of human persuaders, including laypeople, winners of a separately preregistered four-round online persuasion tournament, professional canvassers, and world championship debaters. We found that AI systems were reliably more persuasive than expert humans, even when expert humans chose their issues, researched in advance, underwent hours of live, structured practice, and were incentivized with {\pounds}1,000 cash bonuses. In a follow-up study, AI's advantage persisted after experts received a coaching tool that let them practice against the AI that beat them, review their performance history, and see what AI would have said at key moments. We found converging evidence that AI's advantage stemmed from rapidly deploying larger quantities of information: after coaching, expert humans could tie an AI constrained to respond at human speeds and with human-length messages. In a final study, we show that AI's advantage extends to consequential real-world behavior: AI was nearly 3x more effective than professional canvassers from a UK fundraising firm at raising real-money donations to Save the Children. Together, these results establish that frontier AI systems out-persuade expert humans in conversation, with significant implications for political communication.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Artificial intelligence can persuade people to take political actions

There is substantial concern about the ability of advanced artificial intelligence to influence people's behaviour. A rapidly growing body of research has found that AI can produce large persuasive effects on people's attitudes, but whether AI can persuade people to take consequential real-world actions has remained unclear. In two large preregistered experiments N=17,950 responses from 14,779 people), we used conversational AI models to persuade participants on a range of attitudinal and behavioural outcomes, including signing real petitions and donating money to charity. We found sizable AI persuasion effects on these behavioural outcomes (e.g. +19.7 percentage points on petition signing). However, we observed no evidence of a correlation between AI persuasion effects on attitudes and behaviour. Moreover, we replicated prior findings that information provision drove effects on attitudes, but found no such evidence for our behavioural outcomes. In a test of eight behavioural persuasion strategies, all outperformed the most effective attitudinal persuasion strategy, but differences among the eight were small. Taken together, these results suggest that previous findings relying on attitudinal outcomes may generalize poorly to behaviour, and therefore risk substantially mischaracterizing the real-world behavioural impact of AI persuasion.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Network Evolution and National Interests: Global Scientific Reorganization and the Rise of Scientific Nationalism

The global network of scientific cooperation has undergone major restructuring over the past two decades, with important implications for geopolitics and science policy. China's integration into this network has redistributed positions of influence in ways that challenge zero-sum views of national competition and security. Drawing on structural holes theory and the Bianconi-Barabasi fitness model, we argue that China's entry accelerated an ongoing process of network maturation. As China's scientific capacity expanded, it formed direct collaborations that reduced reliance on U.S. intermediation. Network analysis shows a large decline in U.S. betweenness centrality, while weighted measures remain stable, indicating a loss of brokerage advantages but continued strong bilateral ties. Granger causality tests suggest that China's early participation predicted later structural changes across fields. Results are consistent across six major domains.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2017

The geography of references in elite articles: What countries contribute to the archives of knowledge

This study is intended to find an answer for the question on which national "shoulders" the worldwide top-level research stands. Traditionally, national scientific standings are evaluated in terms of the number of citations to their papers. We raise a different question: instead of analyzing the citations to the countries' articles (the forward view), we examine referenced publications from specific countries cited in the most elite publications (the backward-citing-view). "Elite publications" are operationalized as the top-1% most-highly cited articles. Using the articles published during the years 2004 to 2013, we examine the research referenced in these works. Our results confirm the well-known fact that China has emerged to become a major player in science. However, China still belongs to the low contributors when countries are ranked as contributors to the cited references in top-1% articles. Using this perspective, the results do not point to a decreasing trend for the USA; in fact, the USA exceeds expectations (compared to its publication share) in terms of contributions to cited references in the top-1% articles. Switzerland, Sweden, and the Netherlands also are shown at the top of the list. However, the results for Germany are lower than statistically expected.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2015

Replicability and the public/private divide

In a recent letter, Carlos Vilchez-Roman criticizes Bornmann et al. (2015) for using data which cannot be reproduced without access to an in-house version of the Web-of-Science (WoS) at the Max Planck Digital Libraries (MPDL, Munich). We agree with the norm of replicability and therefore returned to our data. Is the problem only a practical one of automation or does the in-house processing add analytical value to the data? Is the newly emerging situation in any sense different from a further professionalization of the field? In our opinion, a political economy of science indicators has in the meantime emerged with a competitive dynamic that affects the intellectual organization of the field.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2015

Recent Developments in China-U.S. Cooperation in Science

China's remarkable gains in science over the past 25 years have been well documented (e.g., Jin and Rousseau, 2005a; Zhou and Leydesdorff, 2006; Shelton & Foland, 2009) but it is less well known that China and the United States have become each other's top collaborating country. Science and technology has been a primary vehicle for growing the bilateral relationship between China and the United States since the opening of relations between the two countries in the late 1970s. During the 2000s, the scientific relationship between China and the United States--as measured in coauthored papers--showed significant growth. Chinese scientists claim first authorship much more frequently than U.S. counterparts by the end of the decade. The sustained rate of increase of collaboration with one other country is unprecedented on the U.S. side. Even growth in relations with eastern European nations does not match the growth in the relationship between China and the United States. Both countries can benefit from the relationship, but for the U.S., greater benefit would come from a more targeted strategy.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2014

BRICS countries and scientific excellence: A bibliometric analysis of most frequently-cited papers

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and South Africa) are noted for their increasing participation in science and technology. The governments of these countries have been boosting their investments in research and development to become part of the group of nations doing research at a world-class level. This study investigates the development of the BRICS countries in the domain of top-cited papers (top 10% and 1% most frequently cited papers) between 1990 and 2010. To assess the extent to which these countries have become important players on the top level, we compare the BRICS countries with the top-performing countries worldwide. As the analyses of the (annual) growth rates show, with the exception of Russia, the BRICS countries have increased their output in terms of most frequently-cited papers at a higher rate than the top-cited countries worldwide. In a further step of analysis for this study, we generate co-authorship networks among authors of highly cited papers for four time points to view changes in BRICS participation (1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010). Here, the results show that all BRICS countries succeeded in becoming part of this network, whereby the Chinese collaboration activities focus on the USA.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2013

International Co-authorship Relations in the Social Science Citation Index: Is Internationalization Leading the Network?

We analyze international co-authorship relations in the Social Science Citation Index 2011 using all citable items in the DVD-version of this index. Network statistics indicate four groups of nations: (i) an Asian-Pacific one to which all Anglo-Saxon nations (including the UK and Ireland) are attributed; (ii) a continental European one including also the Latin-American countries; (iii) the Scandinavian nations; and (iv) a community of African nations. Within the EU-28 (including Croatia), eleven of the EU-15 states have dominant positions. Collapsing the EU-28 into a single node leads to a bi-polar structure between the US and EU-28; China is part of the US-pole. We develop an information-theoretical test to distinguish whether international collaborations or domestic collaborations prevail; the results are mixed, but the international dimension is more important than the national one in the aggregated sets (this was found in both SSCI and SCI). In France, however, the national distribution is more important than the international one, while the reverse is true for most European nations in the core group (UK, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.). Decomposition of the USA in terms of states shows a similarly mixed result; more US states are domestically oriented in SSCI, whereas more internationally in SCI. The international networks have grown during the last decades in addition to the national ones, but not by replacing them.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2013

International Collaboration in Science: The Global Map and the Network

The network of international co-authorship relations has been dominated by certain European nations and the USA, but this network is rapidly expanding at the global level. Between 40 and 50 countries appear in the center of the international network in 2011, and almost all (201) nations are nowadays involved in international collaboration. In this brief communication, we present both a global map with the functionality of a Google Map (zooming, etc.) and network maps based on normalized relations. These maps reveal complementary aspects of the network. International collaboration in the generation of knowledge claims (that is, the context of discovery) changes the structural layering of the sciences. Previously, validation was at the global level and discovery more dependent on local contexts. This changing relationship between the geographical and intellectual dimensions of the sciences also has implications for national science policies.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2009

International Collaboration in Science and the Formation of a Core Group

International collaboration as measured by co-authorship relations on refereed papers grew linearly from 1990 to 2005 in terms of the number of papers, but exponentially in terms of the number of international addresses. This confirms Persson et al.'s (2004) hypothesis of an inflation in international collaboration. Patterns in international collaboration in science can be considered as network effects, since there is no political institution mediating relationships at that level except for the initiatives of the European Commission. During the period 2000-2005, the network of global collaborations appears to have reinforced the formation of a core group of fourteen most cooperative countries. This core group can be expected to use knowledge from the global network with great efficiency, since these countries have strong national systems. Countries at the periphery may be disadvantaged by the increased strength of the core.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

Is the United States losing ground in science? A global perspective on the world science system

Based on the Science Citation IndexExpanded webversion, the USA is still by far the strongest nation in terms of scientific performance. Its relative decline in percentage share of publications is largely due to the emergence of China and other Asian nations. In 2006, China has become the second largest nation in terms of the number of publications within this database. In terms of citations, the competitive advantage of the American domestic market is diminished, while the European Union EU is profiting more from the enlargement of the database over time than the US. However, the USA is still outperforming all other countries in terms of highly cited papers and citationpublication ratios, and it is more successful than the EU in coordinating its research efforts in strategic priority areas like nanotechnology. In this field, the Peoples Republic of China PRC has become second largest nation in both numbers of papers published and citations behind the USA.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

Macro-level Indicators of the Relations between Research Funding and Research Output

In response to the call for a science of science policy, we discuss the contribution of indicators at the macro-level of nations from a scientometric perspective. In addition to global trends such as the rise of China, one can relate percentages of world share of publications to government expenditure in academic research. The marginal costs of improving one's share are increasing over time. Countries differ considerably in terms of the efficiency of turning (financial) input into bibliometrically measurable output. Both funding schemes and disciplinary portfolios differ among countries. A price per paper can nevertheless be estimated. The percentages of GDP spent on academic research in different nations are significantly correlated to historical contingencies such as the percentage of researchers in the population. The institutional dynamics make strategic objectives such as the Lisbon objective of the EU--that is, spending 3% of GDP for R&D in 2010--unrealistic.

physics.soc-ph↗