arXiv subjects

Carri W. Chan

Publications and source records attributed to Carri W. Chan.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Deployment of AI-Assisted Interventions: Capacity Constraints and Noisy Compliance

AI tools increasingly guide targeted interventions in healthcare, education, and recruiting. Algorithms score individuals, trigger outreach to those above a threshold (e.g., high-risk or high-value), and encourage them to request service; then providers deliver service to those who request. Standard practice sets the threshold and selects the algorithm to maximize predictive accuracy, assuming that better predictions yield better outcomes. We show that this approach is suboptimal when limited service capacity and probabilistic behavioral responses influence who receives service. In such settings, the optimal score threshold must balance two effects: ensuring all capacity is filled (utilization) and ensuring high-value individuals are served despite competition between requests (cannibalization). We characterize the optimal threshold and prove that policies based solely on predictive accuracy are generally suboptimal. Further, because optimal thresholds vary with service capacity, algorithm selection metrics like AUC, which weight all thresholds equally, are misaligned with operational performance. We introduce a new metric--Operational AUC (OpAUC)--and show it leads to optimal algorithm selection. Finally, we conduct a case study on sepsis early warning data and illustrate the magnitude of improvement that can be achieved from improved threshold and algorithm selection.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Robust Policies For Proactive ICU Transfers

Patients whose transfer to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is unplanned are prone to higher mortality rates than those who were admitted directly to the ICU. Recent advances in machine learning to predict patient deterioration have introduced the possibility of \emph{proactive transfer} from the ward to the ICU. In this work, we study the problem of finding \emph{robust} patient transfer policies which account for uncertainty in statistical estimates due to data limitations when optimizing to improve overall patient care. We propose a Markov Decision Process model to capture the evolution of patient health, where the states represent a measure of patient severity. Under fairly general assumptions, we show that an optimal transfer policy has a threshold structure, i.e., that it transfers all patients above a certain severity level to the ICU (subject to available capacity). As model parameters are typically determined based on statistical estimations from real-world data, they are inherently subject to misspecification and estimation errors. We account for this parameter uncertainty by deriving a robust policy that optimizes the worst-case reward across all plausible values of the model parameters. We show that the robust policy also has a threshold structure under fairly general assumptions. Moreover, it is more aggressive in transferring patients than the optimal nominal policy, which does not take into account parameter uncertainty. We present computational experiments using a dataset of hospitalizations at 21 KNPC hospitals, and present empirical evidence of the sensitivity of various hospital metrics (mortality, length-of-stay, average ICU occupancy) to small changes in the parameters. Our work provides useful insights into the impact of parameter uncertainty on deriving simple policies for proactive ICU transfer that have strong empirical performance and theoretical guarantees.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Myopic Policies for Non-Preemptive Scheduling of Jobs with Decaying Value

In many scheduling applications, minimizing delays is of high importance. One adverse effect of such delays is that the reward for completion of a job may decay over time. Indeed in healthcare settings, delays in access to care can result in worse outcomes, such as an increase in mortality risk. Motivated by managing hospital operations in disaster scenarios, as well as other applications in perishable inventory control and information services, we consider non-preemptive scheduling of jobs whose internal value decays over time. Because solving for the optimal scheduling policy is computationally intractable, we focus our attention on the performance of three intuitive heuristics: (1) a policy which maximizes the expected immediate reward, (2) a policy which maximizes the expected immediate reward rate, and (3) a policy which prioritizes jobs with imminent deadlines. We provide performance guarantees for all three policies and show that many of these performance bounds are tight. In addition, we provide numerical experiments and simulations to compare how the policies perform in a variety of scenarios. Our theoretical and numerical results allow us to establish rules-of-thumb for applying these heuristics in a variety of situations, including patient scheduling scenarios.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2011

Fairness in overloaded parallel queues

Maximizing throughput for heterogeneous parallel server queues has received quite a bit of attention from the research community and the stability region for such systems is well understood. However, many real-world systems have periods where they are temporarily overloaded. Under such scenarios, the unstable queues often starve limited resources. This work examines what happens during periods of temporary overload. Specifically, we look at how to fairly distribute stress. We explore the dynamics of the queue workloads under the MaxWeight scheduling policy during long periods of stress and discuss how to tune this policy in order to achieve a target fairness ratio across these workloads.

math.DS↗

arXiv2009

Efficiency-Loss of Greedy Schedules in Non-Preemptive Processing of Jobs with Decaying Value

We consider the problem of dynamically scheduling J jobs on N processors for non-preemptive execution where the value of each job (or the reward garnered upon completion) decays over time. All jobs are initially available in a buffer and the distribution of their service times are known. When a processor becomes available, one must determine which free job to schedule so as to maximize the total expected reward accrued for the completion of all jobs. Such problems arise in diverse application areas, e.g. scheduling of patients for medical procedures, supply chains of perishable goods, packet scheduling for delay-sensitive communication network traffic, etc. Computation of optimal schedules is generally intractable, while online low-complexity schedules are often essential in practice. It is shown that the simple greedy/myopic schedule provably achieves performance within a factor 2 + E[max_j sigma_j](min_j E[sigma_j]) from optimal. This bound can be improved to a factor of 2 when the service times are identically distributed. Various aspects of the greedy schedule are examined and it is demonstrated to perform quite close to optimal in some practical situations despite the fact that it ignores reward-decay deeper in time.

math.OC↗

arXiv2008

Stochastic Depletion Problems: Effective Myopic Policies for a class of Dynamic Optimization Problems

This paper presents a general class of dynamic stochastic optimization problems we refer to as Stochastic Depletion Problems. A number of challenging dynamic optimization problems of practical interest are stochastic depletion problems. Optimal solutions for such problems are difficult to obtain, both from a pragmatic computational perspective as also from a theoretical perspective. As such, simple heuristics are highly desirable. We isolate two simple properties that, if satisfied by a problem within this class, guarantee that a myopic policy incurs a performance loss of at most 50 % relative to the optimal adaptive control policy for that problem. We are able to verify that these two properties are satisfied for several interesting families of stochastic depletion problems and as a consequence identify efficient near-optimal control policies for a number of interesting dynamic stochastic optimization problems.

math.OC↗