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Carsten Heinrich

Publications and source records attributed to Carsten Heinrich.

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Unsupervised detection and open-set classification of fast-ramped flexibility activation events

The continuous electrification of the mobility and heating sectors adds much-needed flexibility to the power system. However, flexibility utilization also introduces new challenges to distribution system operators (DSOs), who need mechanisms to supervise flexibility activations and monitor their effect on distribution network operation. Flexibility activations can be broadly categorized to those originating from electricity markets and those initiated by the DSO to avoid constraint violations. Simultaneous electricity market driven flexibility activations may cause voltage quality or temporary overloading issues, and the failure of flexibility activations initiated by the DSO might leave critical grid states unresolved. This work proposes a novel data processing pipeline for automated real-time identification of fast-ramped flexibility activation events. Its practical value is twofold: i) potentially critical flexibility activations originating from electricity markets can be detected by the DSO at an early stage, and ii) successful activation of DSO-requested flexibility can be verified by the operator. In both cases the increased awareness would allow the DSO to take counteractions to avoid potentially critical grid situations. The proposed pipeline combines techniques from unsupervised detection and open-set classification. For both building blocks feasibility is systematically evaluated and proofed on real load and flexibility activation data.

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Uncertainty Quantification in LV State Estimation Under High Shares of Flexible Resources

The ongoing electrification introduces new challenges to distribution system operators (DSOs). Controllable resources may simultaneously react to price signals, potentially leading to network violations. DSOs require reliable and accurate low-voltage state estimation (LVSE) to improve awareness and mitigate such events. However, the influence of flexibility activations on LVSE has not been addressed yet. It remains unclear if flexibility-induced uncertainty can be reliably quantified to enable robust DSO decision-making. In this work, uncertainty quantification in LVSE is systematically investigated for multiple scenarios of input availability and flexibility utilization, using real data. For that purpose, a Bayesian neural network (BNN) is compared to quantile regression. Results show that frequent flexibility activations can significantly deteriorate LVSE performance, unless secondary substation measurements are available. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the BNN captures flexibility-induced voltage drops by dynamically extending the prediction interval during activation periods, and that it improves interpretability regarding the cause of uncertainty.

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