arXiv subjects

Carsten Skovmose Kallesøe

Publications and source records attributed to Carsten Skovmose Kallesøe.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Virtual Smart Metering in District Heating Networks via Heterogeneous Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks

Intelligent operation of thermal energy networks aims to improve energy efficiency, reliability, and operational flexibility through data-driven control, predictive optimization, and early fault detection. Achieving these goals relies on sufficient observability, requiring continuous and well-distributed monitoring of thermal and hydraulic states. However, district heating systems are typically sparsely instrumented and frequently affected by sensor faults, limiting monitoring. Virtual sensing offers a cost-effective means to enhance observability, yet its development and validation remain limited in practice. Existing data-driven methods generally assume dense synchronized data, while analytical models rely on simplified hydraulic and thermal assumptions that may not adequately capture the behavior of heterogeneous network topologies. Consequently, modeling the coupled nonlinear dependencies between pressure, flow, and temperature under realistic operating conditions remains challenging. In addition, the lack of publicly available benchmark datasets hinders systematic comparison of virtual sensing approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a heterogeneous spatial-temporal graph neural network (HSTGNN) for constructing virtual smart heat meters. The model incorporates the functional relationships inherent in district heating networks and employs dedicated branches to learn graph structures and temporal dynamics for flow, temperature, and pressure measurements, thereby enabling the joint modeling of cross-variable and spatial correlations. To support further research, we introduce a controlled laboratory dataset collected at the Aalborg Smart Water Infrastructure Laboratory, providing synchronized high-resolution measurements representative of real operating conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms existing baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A proximal approach to the Schrödinger bridge problem with incomplete information and application to contamination tracking in water networks

In this work, we study a discrete Schrödinger bridge problem with partial marginal observations. A main difficulty compared to the classical Schrödinger bridge formulation is that our problem is not strictly convex and standard Sinkhorn-type methods cannot be directly applied. To address this issue, we propose a scalable computational method based on an entropic proximal scheme. Furthermore, we develop a framework for this problem that includes duality results, characterization of the optimal solutions, and an observability condition that determines when the optimal solution is unique. We validate the method on the problem of estimating contamination in a water distribution network, where the partial marginals correspond to measured pollutant concentrations at the sensor locations. The experiments were conducted on a laboratory-scale water distribution network.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Robust Correlated Equilibrium: Definition and Computation

We study N-player finite games with costs perturbed due to time-varying disturbances in the underlying system and to that end, we propose the concept of Robust Correlated Equilibrium that generalizes the definition of Correlated Equilibrium. Conditions under which the Robust Correlated Equilibrium exists are specified, and a decentralized algorithm for learning strategies that are optimal in the sense of Robust Correlated Equilibrium is proposed. The primary contribution of the paper is the convergence analysis of the algorithm and to that end, we propose a modification of the celebrated Blackwell's Approachability theorem to games with costs that are not just time-average, as in the original Blackwell's Approachability Theorem, but also include the time-average of previous algorithm iterates. The designed algorithm is applied to a practical water distribution network with pumps being the controllers and their costs being perturbed by uncertain consumption due to the consumers. Simulation results show that each controller achieves no regret, and empirical distributions converge to the Robust Correlated Equilibrium.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Hydraulic Parameter Estimation for District Heating Based on Laboratory Experiments

In this paper we consider calibration of hydraulic models for district heating systems based on operational data. We extend previous theoretical work on the topic to handle real-world complications, namely unknown valve characteristics and hysteresis. We generate two datasets in the Smart Water Infrastructure laboratory in Aalborg, Denmark, on which we evaluate the proposed procedure. In the first data set the system is controlled in such a way to excite all operational modes in terms of combinations of valve set-points. Here the best performing model predicted volume flow rates within roughly 5 and 10 \% deviation from the mean volume flow rate for the consumer with the highest and lowest mean volume flow rates respectively. This performance was met in the majority of the operational region. In the second data set, the system was controlled in order to mimic real load curves. The model trained on this data set performed similarly well when evaluated on data in the operational range represented in the training data. However, the model performance deteriorated when evaluated on data which was not represented in the training data.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

On Bellman's principle of optimality and Reinforcement learning for safety-constrained Markov decision process

We study optimality for the safety-constrained Markov decision process which is the underlying framework for safe reinforcement learning. Specifically, we consider a constrained Markov decision process (with finite states and finite actions) where the goal of the decision maker is to reach a target set while avoiding an unsafe set(s) with certain probabilistic guarantees. Therefore the underlying Markov chain for any control policy will be multichain since by definition there exists a target set and an unsafe set. The decision maker also has to be optimal (with respect to a cost function) while navigating to the target set. This gives rise to a multi-objective optimization problem. We highlight the fact that Bellman's principle of optimality may not hold for constrained Markov decision problems with an underlying multichain structure (as shown by the counterexample due to Haviv. We resolve the counterexample by formulating the aforementioned multi-objective optimization problem as a zero-sum game and thereafter construct an asynchronous value iteration scheme for the Lagrangian (similar to Shapley's algorithm). Finally, we consider the reinforcement learning problem for the same and construct a modified $Q$-learning algorithm for learning the Lagrangian from data. We also provide a lower bound on the number of iterations required for learning the Lagrangian and corresponding error bounds.

eess.SY↗