arXiv subjects

Casey Lam

Publications and source records attributed to Casey Lam.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will expand the reach of gravitational microlensing surveys by increasing the number of events monitored and the precision of their light curves. We investigate Roman's ability to detect triple-lens microlensing systems, cases where a foreground star with two bound exoplanets produces detectable anomalies in a microlensing event, using its planned high-cadence observations toward the Galactic bulge. We simulate a large set of high-magnification microlensing light curves based on Roman's expected survey characteristics. A detection criterion, based on a required $\chi^2$ improvement for a two-planet model, is applied to determine whether the second planet can be reliably distinguished from a single-planet (binary-lens) model. Our simulations show that the majority of two-planet microlensing events would be detectable with Roman. Events in which both planets are relatively massive (planet-star mass ratios of order $10^{-3}$), or in which the more massive planet occupies a favorable resonant configuration, produce strong central perturbations, resulting in detection efficiencies of roughly 90\%. By contrast, systems with only low-mass planets ($q \sim 10^{-4}$) or with less favorable alignments generate much weaker signals, which often fall below the detection threshold. In general, the planetary mass ratios and the resulting caustic geometry (e.g., central caustic size in resonant versus wide/close orbits) are the dominant factors governing detectability. Taking into account the expected frequency of planetary systems and the fraction of high-magnification events, we estimate that Roman will detect a high-magnification triple-lens event in approximately 4.5\% of multi-planet microlensing events, corresponding to about 64 events over the course of the full survey.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Binary Lenses and Sources with the BAGLE Python Package

Gravitational microlensing is a powerful tool that can be used to find and measure the mass of isolated and dark compact objects. In many microlensing events, the lens, the source, or both may be a binary system. In this work, we introduce binary source and lens models into the gravitational lensing formalism encoded in the Bayesian Analysis of Gravitational Lensing Events (BAGLE) Python software package. These new binary models in BAGLE account for Keplerian orbits. We also add binary models with fewer parameters that describe the binary orbital motion as acceleration, linear, or stationary motion of the secondary companion; these are useful when the orbit has a very low eccentricity or the orbital period is much longer than the microlensing timescale. The model parameterizations based on these binary lensing equations enable joint-fitting of photometric and astrometric datasets. These binary models will be used to fit microlensing event data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope, and other surveys.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

A generative model for Gaia astrometric orbit catalogs: selection functions for binary stars, giant planets, and compact object companions

Astrometry from Gaia DR3 has produced a sample of $\sim$170,000 Keplerian orbital solutions, with many more anticipated in the next few years. These data have enormous potential to constrain the population of binary stars, giant planets, and compact objects in the Solar neighborhood. But in order to use the published orbit catalogs for statistical inference, it is necessary to understand their selection function: what is the probability that a binary with a given set of properties ends up in a catalog? We show that such a selection function for the Gaia DR3 astrometric binary catalog can be forward-modeled from the Gaia scanning law, including individual 1D astrometric measurements, the fitting of a cascade of astrometric models, and quality cuts applied in post-processing. We populate a synthetic Milky Way model with binary stars and generate a mock catalog of astrometric orbits. The mock catalog is quite similar to the DR3 astrometric binary sample, suggesting that our selection function is a sensible approximation of reality. Our fitting also produces a sample of spurious astrometric orbits similar to those found in DR3; these are mainly the result of scan angle-dependent astrometric biases in marginally resolved wide binaries. We show that Gaia's sensitivity to astrometric binaries falls off rapidly at high eccentricities, but only weakly at high inclinations. We predict that DR4 will yield $\sim 1$ million astrometric orbits, mostly for bright ($G \lesssim 15$) systems with long periods ($P_{\rm orb} \gtrsim 1000$ d). We provide code to simulate and fit realistic Gaia epoch astrometry for any data release and determine whether any hypothetical binary would receive a cataloged orbital solution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The Symbiotic X-ray Binary IGR J16194-2810: A Window on the Future Evolution of Wide Neutron Star Binaries From Gaia

We present optical follow-up of IGR J16194-2810, a hard X-ray source discovered by the INTEGRAL mission. The optical counterpart is a $\sim500\,L_\odot$ red giant at a distance of $2.1$ kpc. We measured 17 radial velocities (RVs) of the giant over a period of $271$ days. Fitting these RVs with a Keplerian model, we find an orbital period of $P_{\rm orb} = 192.73 \pm 0.01$ days and a companion mass function $f(M_2) = 0.365 \pm 0.003 \,M_{\odot}$. We detect ellipsoidal variability with the same period in optical light curves from the ASAS-SN survey. Joint fitting of the RVs, light curves, and the broadband SED allows us to robustly constrain the masses of both components. We find a giant mass of $M_\star = 0.99^{+0.02}_{-0.03}\,M_{\odot}$ and a companion mass of $M_{2} = 1.23^{+0.05}_{-0.03}\,M_{\odot}$, implying that the companion is a neutron star (NS). We recover a $4.06$-hour period in the system's TESS light curve, which we tentatively associate with the NS spin period. The giant does not yet fill its Roche lobe, suggesting that current mass transfer is primarily via winds. MESA evolutionary models predict that the giant will overflow its Roche lobe in $5$-$10$ Myr, eventually forming a recycled pulsar + white dwarf binary with a $\sim 900$ day period. IGR J16194-2810 provides a window on the future evolution of wide NS + main sequence binaries recently discovered via Gaia astrometry. As with those systems, the binary's formation history is uncertain. Before the formation of the NS, it likely survived a common envelope episode with a donor-to-accretor mass ratio $\gtrsim 10$ and emerged in a wide orbit. The NS likely formed with a weak kick ($v_{\rm kick}\lesssim 50\,\rm km\,s^{-1}$), as stronger kicks would have disrupted the orbit.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

The Galactic Center with Roman

We advocate for a Galactic center (GC) field to be added to the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS). The new field would yield high-cadence photometric and astrometric measurements of an unprecedented ${\sim}$3.3 million stars toward the GC. This would enable a wide range of science cases, such as finding star-compact object binaries that may ultimately merge as LISA-detectable gravitational wave sources, constraining the mass function of stars and compact objects in different environments, detecting populations of microlensing and transiting exoplanets, studying stellar flares and variability in young and old stars, and monitoring accretion onto the central supermassive black hole. In addition, high-precision proper motions and parallaxes would open a new window into the large-scale dynamics of stellar populations at the GC, yielding insights into the formation and evolution of galactic nuclei and their co-evolution with the growth of the supermassive black hole. We discuss the possible trade-offs between the notional GBTDS and the addition of a GC field with either an optimal or minimal cadence. Ultimately, the addition of a GC field to the GBTDS would dramatically increase the science return of Roman and provide a legacy dataset to study the mid-plane and innermost regions of our Galaxy.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

R2-D2: Roman and Rubin -- From Data to Discovery

The NASA Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin), will transform our view of the wide-field sky, with similar sensitivities, but complementary in wavelength, spatial resolution, and time domain coverage. Here we present findings from the AURA Roman+Rubin Synergy Working group, charged by the STScI and NOIRLab Directors to identify frontier science questions in General Astrophysics, beyond the well-covered areas of Dark Energy and Cosmology, that can be uniquely addressed with Roman and Rubin synergies in observing strategy, data products and archiving, joint analysis, and community engagement. This analysis was conducted with input from the community in the form of brief (1-2 paragraph) "science pitches" (see Appendix), and testimony from "outside experts" (included as co-authors). We identify a rich and broad landscape of potential discoveries catalyzed by the combination of exceptional quality and quantity of Roman and Rubin data, and summarize implementation requirements that would facilitate this bounty of additional science with coordination of survey fields, joint coverage of the Galactic plane, bulge, and ecliptic, expansion of General Investigator and Target of Opportunity observing modes, co-location of Roman and Rubin data, and timely distribution of data, transient alerts, catalogs, value-added joint analysis products, and simulations to the broad astronomical community.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Real-Time Likelihood-Free Inference of Roman Binary Microlensing Events with Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation

Fast and automated inference of binary-lens, single-source (2L1S) microlensing events with sampling-based Bayesian algorithms (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo; MCMC) is challenged on two fronts: high computational cost of likelihood evaluations with microlensing simulation codes, and a pathological parameter space where the negative-log-likelihood surface can contain a multitude of local minima that are narrow and deep. Analysis of 2L1S events usually involves grid searches over some parameters to locate approximate solutions as a prerequisite to posterior sampling, an expensive process that often requires human-in-the-loop domain expertise. As the next-generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Telescope is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new fast and automated method is desirable. Here, we present a likelihood-free inference (LFI) approach named amortized neural posterior estimation, where a neural density estimator (NDE) learns a surrogate posterior $\hat{p}(\theta|x)$ as an observation-parametrized conditional probability distribution, from pre-computed simulations over the full prior space. Trained on 291,012 simulated Roman-like 2L1S simulations, the NDE produces accurate and precise posteriors within seconds for any observation within the prior support without requiring a domain expert in the loop, thus allowing for real-time and automated inference. We show that the NDE also captures expected posterior degeneracies. The NDE posterior could then be refined into the exact posterior with a downstream MCMC sampler with minimal burn-in steps.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

Automating Inference of Binary Microlensing Events with Neural Density Estimation

Automated inference of binary microlensing events with traditional sampling-based algorithms such as MCMC has been hampered by the slowness of the physical forward model and the pathological likelihood surface. Current analysis of such events requires both expert knowledge and large-scale grid searches to locate the approximate solution as a prerequisite to MCMC posterior sampling. As the next generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Observatory is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new scalable and automated approach is desired. Here, we present an automated inference method based on neural density estimation (NDE). We show that the NDE trained on simulated Roman data not only produces fast, accurate, and precise posteriors but also captures expected posterior degeneracies. A hybrid NDE-MCMC framework can further be applied to produce the exact posterior.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Astro2020: From Stars to Compact Objects: The Initial-Final Mass Relation

One of the key phases of stellar evolution that remains poorly understood is stellar death. We lack a predictive model for how a star of a given mass explodes and what kind of remnant it leaves behind (i.e. the initial-final mass relation, IFMR). Progress has been limited due to the difficulty in finding and weighing black holes and neutron stars in large numbers. Technological advances that allow for sub-milliarcsecond astrometry in crowded fields have opened a new window for finding black holes and neutron stars: astrometric gravitational lensing. Finding and weighing a sample of compact objects with astrometric microlensing will allow us to place some of the first constraints on the present-day mass function of isolated black holes and neutron stars, their multiplicity, and their kick velocities. All of these are fundamental inputs into understanding the death phase of stellar evolution, improving supernovae models, and interpreting LIGO detections in an astrophysical context. To achieve these goals, we require large area surveys, such as the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey, to photometrically identify long-duration (>120 day), un-blended microlensing events as candidate compact objects. We also require high-precision astrometric follow-up monitoring using extremely large telescopes, equipped with adaptive optics, such as TMT and GMT.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Dark Matter Science in the Era of LSST

Astrophysical observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. In the coming decade, astrophysical observations will guide other experimental efforts, while simultaneously probing unique regions of dark matter parameter space. This white paper summarizes astrophysical observations that can constrain the fundamental physics of dark matter in the era of LSST. We describe how astrophysical observations will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational interactions with the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we highlight theoretical work and experimental/observational facilities that will complement LSST to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Number Density of Peaks in a Chi-Squared Field

We investigate the statistics of stationary points in the sum of squares of $N$ Gaussian random fields, which we call a "chi-squared" field. The behavior of such a field at a point is investigated, with particular attention paid to the formation of topological defects. An integral to compute the number density of stationary points at a given field amplitude is constructed. We compute exact expressions for the integral in various limits and provide code to evaluate it numerically in the general case. We investigate the dependence of the number density of stationary points on the field amplitude, number of fields, and power spectrum of the individual Gaussian random fields. This work parallels the work of Bardeen, Bond, Kaiser and Szalay, who investigated the statistics of peaks of Gaussian random fields. A number of results for integrating over matrices are presented in appendices.

math-ph↗

arXiv2016

The level-set flow of the topologist's sine curve is smooth

In this note we prove that the level-set flow of the topologist's sine curve is a smooth closed curve. In previous work it was shown by the second author that under level-set flow, a locally-connected set in the plane evolves to be smooth, either as a curve or as a positive area region bounded by smooth curves. Here we give the first example of a domain whose boundary is not locally-connected for which the level-set flow is instantaneously smooth. Our methods also produce an example of a non path-connected set that instantly evolves into a smooth closed curve.

math.DG↗