arXiv subjects

Casey Y. Lam

Publications and source records attributed to Casey Y. Lam.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Black hole astrometric binaries in the Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman), NASA's next flagship mission, is currently scheduled to launch in August 2026. As part of its mission, Roman will conduct the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), which will generate $\sim$50,000 epochs of high-precision photometric and astrometric data for $\sim 10^8$ sources across 1.7 deg$^2$ in the Galactic Bulge. Roman GBTDS astrometry is comparable to Gaia Data Release 4 in terms of number of stars, astrometric precision, and time baseline, and is highly complementary in terms of wavelength and sky location. In this paper, we investigate a synthetic population of GBTDS sources to characterize the detectability of unresolved astrometric binaries, in particular those with compact object companions. Assuming the occurrence rate of black holes (BHs) and neutron stars (NSs) in AU-scale orbits around stars is $10^{-7}$ and $10^{-6}$, respectively, and that Roman achieves an astrometric precision of $1\%$ of a pixel, $\mathcal{O}(10)$ BH+star and $\mathcal{O}(10)$ NS+star detached binaries will be detectable. The BHs will have median mass measurement uncertainties of $\sim 25\%$, increasing the existing sample of detached astrometric BH binaries by a factor of three. Together with the $\mathcal{O}(10^2)$ isolated BHs expected to be discovered by microlensing in the Roman GBTDS and an additional $\mathcal{O}(10)$ detached BH binaries in Gaia DR4, this will provide a representative view of the quiescent Galactic stellar-mass BH population.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Spin-Orbit Alignment of Two Neptune-size Planets Younger than 500 Myr: TOI-560 b and TOI-5082 b

Stellar obliquity measurements provide a direct probe of planetary system dynamics, but remain sparse for Neptune-size planets, particularly at young ages. We present Rossiter-McLaughlin measurements for two young Neptune-size planets, TOI-560 b and TOI-5082 b, using time-resolved Keck Planet Finder (KPF) spectroscopy and joint modeling with TESS transit photometry. We measure sky-projected obliquities of $λ_b = -25 \pm 16^\circ$ for TOI-560 b and $λ_b = 19^{+17}_{-13}{}^\circ$ for TOI-5082 b. Combining these constraints with stellar rotation periods and spectroscopic estimates of $v\sin i_\star$, we obtain 95% upper limits of $ψ< 69.7^\circ$ and $ψ< 50.5^\circ$, respectively. Both systems are therefore consistent with low-to-moderate true obliquities and show no evidence of strong spin-orbit misalignment. With ages of $480 \pm 190$ Myr for TOI-560 b and $180 \pm 9$ Myr for TOI-5082 b (a likely member of the CRIUS197 stellar association), the systems are in a key evolutionary phase when post-disk dynamical processes such as secular interactions may begin to manifest. Nevertheless, both systems remain consistent with low obliquity. In the broader context of young systems with existing measurements, these results support an emerging picture in which Neptune-size planets at $\lesssim 1$ Gyr are commonly found in low-obliquity configurations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Spectroscopic follow-up of compact object binary candidates from Gaia DR3: White dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes, and the parallax zeropoint

Astrometry and radial velocities (RVs) from Gaia DR3 yielded orbits for hundreds of thousands of binary systems, including several samples proposed to contain black holes (BHs), neutron stars (NSs), and white dwarfs (WDs). We present results of a systematic spectroscopic follow-up program targeting these objects. Beginning with a sample of 227 sources, we used a combination of archival data and many-epoch spectroscopic follow-up to characterize more than 200. We obtained 1292 high-quality RVs over a period of four years using the TRES and FEROS spectrographs, achieving a typical precision of 50 m/s and at least 10 RVs for 60 sources. We use these data to test the Gaia orbital solutions and tighten constraints on orbital parameters and component masses. Joint fitting of astrometry and RVs allows us to directly constrain flux ratios, verifying that undetected companions are genuinely dark. We find that ~60% of the astrometric candidates indeed host compact objects, including the two known Gaia BHs, 27 NS candidates, and a dozen massive WDs. We show that tight WD+WD binaries may masquerade as NSs within this sample. The spectroscopic candidates have lower purity: ~50% have spurious solutions, and a majority of the rest are post-mass-transfer binaries or hierarchical triples. Joint astrometry+RV fits of binaries with dark companions yield direct, parallax-independent distance measurements. Using 40 such systems, we measure the Gaia DR3 parallax zeropoint for astrometric orbital solutions. We find $Z=-0.0362\pm0.0053$ mas, consistent with the single-star zeropoint for sources of similar color and magnitude. These results will guide the selection of cleaner candidate samples from Gaia DR4, where a longer observing baseline will enable discovery of many more compact object binaries. RV follow-up will remain important for confirming individual systems, particularly those with extreme parameters.

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arXiv2026

Lithium as a Signpost for Compact Object Binary Candidates in the LAMOST Medium Resolution Survey

Binary systems with black hole or neutron star companions are often associated with lithium enhancement. Gaia NS1, a recently discovered neutron-star binary with a lithium-enhanced main-sequence companion, demonstrates the potential of lithium as a signpost for identifying compact object binaries in existing spectroscopic surveys. In particular, we aim to use lithium as a signpost to find compact object binaries similar to Gaia NS1 in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) Medium Resolution Survey (MRS). From LAMOST MRS, we selected 4441 metal-poor main-sequence stars like Gaia NS1, measured the Li 6707 Å equivalent width, and then identified a sample of 33 stars with strong Li absorption. We used radial velocity variation and astrometric binarity signatures from Gaia, narrowing the sample to 3 candidates. We identified one of these candidates as an eclipsing binary and demonstrated that massive companions for the other two are unlikely via follow-up spectroscopy.

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arXiv2026

Radial Velocity Orbital Solutions for Candidate Black Hole and Neutron Star Binary Systems in the Gaia Data Release 3 Catalog

We present spectroscopic followup observations of binary systems from the Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3) binary catalog that were selected to have large enough mass functions for their companions to be black holes or neutron stars. The selection includes 20 stars that are astrometric and/or spectroscopic binaries, as well as 11 stars with large accelerations both in the plane of the sky and along the line of sight but no DR3 orbital solution. We provide classifications for this entire sample, including radial velocity orbital solutions for 12 binaries. Apart from the previously published binaries Gaia BH1, Gaia BH2, and Gaia NS1, we show that the Gaia orbits are incorrect for all of the stars with candidate dark companions above 2 Msun. We suggest more conservative cuts on the significance and goodness of fit parameters that may be useful for identifying reliable orbital solutions in the tail of the binary star distribution. Although we find no new confirmed black hole or neutron star companions, one accelerating system has a minimum companion mass of 1.16 +/- 0.01 Msun that is likely to be a neutron star or an ultramassive white dwarf. The acceleration catalogs may therefore provide a largely unexplored source of additional wide binaries containing compact objects.

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arXiv2026

An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations I: Model Description & Evaluation

The optimization and interpretation of microlensing surveys depends on having an accurate model of the Milky Way. However, existing population synthesis Galactic modeling tools often perform poorly in replicating the stellar contents of the inner Galactic bulge region and reproducing microlensing survey results. We present an updated Galactic model implementation within the \synthpop framework that has been tuned for simulating the upcoming {\it Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope}'s Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (RGBTDS). We evaluate the model against stellar catalogs and kinematics from optical and infrared surveys toward the Galactic bulge, finding good agreement in much of the bulge, including the RGBTDS' contiguous lower bulge fields. However, within Galactic latitudes of $b\lesssim0.5^\circ$ of the Galactic plane, some inconsistencies arise which may impact projections for the RGBTDS' Galactic center field. The model over-predicts optical microlensing event rate per star measurements by a $\sim20$\%, but detailed comparisons to near-infrared measurements are hampered by their lack of detection efficiencies. {\it Roman}'s GBTDS and Galactic Plane Survey will be instrumental in resolving the remaining model inconsistencies and improving our understanding of the structure of the central few degrees of our Galaxy.

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arXiv2025

A search for black holes with metal-poor stellar companions: I. Survey sample selection and single epoch radial velocity follow-up

Stellar-mass black holes (BHs) above $30 M_\odot$ are predicted to form from low-metallicity progenitors, but direct detections of such systems in the Milky Way remain scarce. Motivated by the recent discovery of Gaia BH3, a $33 M_\odot$ BH with a very metal-poor giant companion, we conduct a systematic search for additional systems. Approximately 900 candidates are identified with Gaia as having significant deviations from single-star astrometric motion, evidence of RV variability, and low metallicities inferred from Gaia XP spectra. We obtain single epoch high-resolution spectra for over 600 of these sources with Magellan/MIKE and Lick/APF and measure independent RVs with $\approx 1$ km s$^{-1}$ precision. After removing contaminants such as hot stars, pulsators, eclipsing binaries, and hierarchical triples, we identify about 15 promising candidates with large RV amplitudes or offsets from the Gaia reported values. This program establishes a well-characterized sample of BH candidates for detailed orbital modeling once Gaia DR4 epoch astrometry and RVs are released in late 2026; multi-epoch RV follow-up is ongoing. Together, the Gaia and ground-based data will place new constraints on the demographics of BHs with metal-poor companions and test theoretical predictions linking low metallicity to the formation of the most massive stellar remnants.

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arXiv2025

A Spectroscopic Search for Dormant Black Holes in Low-Metallicity Binaries

The discovery of the massive black hole (BH) system Gaia BH3 in pre-release Gaia DR4 data suggests that wide BH binaries with luminous companions may be significantly overrepresented at low metallicities. Motivated by this finding, we have initiated a spectroscopic survey of low-metallicity stars exhibiting elevated RUWE values in Gaia DR3, using the FEROS and APF spectrographs. We identify promising BH binary candidates as objects with instantaneously measured radial velocities (RVs) that are very different from their mean RVs reported in Gaia DR3. Thus far, we have observed over 500 targets, including a nearly complete sample of stars with $\text{[Fe/H]} < -1.5$, RUWE $> 2$, and $G < 15$. Our search has yielded one promising target exhibiting slow acceleration and an RV more than 98 km s$^{-1}$ different from its DR3 mean RV, as well as dozens of other candidates with smaller RV discrepancies. We quantify the sensitivity of our search using simulations, demonstrating that it recovers at least half of the BH companions within our selection criteria. We make all the spectra and RVs from our survey publicly available and encourage further follow-up.

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arXiv2025

A Fast, Analytic Empirical Model of the Gaia Data Release 3 Astrometric Orbit Catalog Selection Function

In June 2022, the Gaia mission released a catalog of astrometric orbital solutions for 168,065 binary systems, by far the largest such catalog to date. The catalog's selection function is difficult to characterize because of choices made in its construction. Understanding the catalog's selection function is required to model and interpret its contents. We use a combination of analytic and empirical prescriptions to construct a function that computes the probability that a binary with a given set of properties would have been published in the Gaia Data Release 3 astrometric orbit catalog. This is a complementary approach to the more accurate but significantly more computationally expensive approach of El-Badry et al. (2024). We also construct a binary population synthesis model to validate our characterization of the selection function, finding good agreement with the actual Gaia NSS catalog, with the exception of the orbital eccentricity distribution. The NSS catalog suggests high-eccentricity orbits are relatively uncommon at intermediate periods $100 \lesssim P_{orb} \lesssim 1000$ days. As an example application of the selection function, we estimate the Gaia DR3 detection probabilities of the star + BH binaries Gaia BH1 and BH2, and find them to be 0.38 and 0.27, respectively. Compared to the values obtained by detailed modeling in El-Badry et al. (2024), the probabilities are identical for BH1, and within a factor of 2 for BH2. We also estimate the population of Sun-like star + BH binaries in the Galaxy to be $\sim 3000$ for $100 < P_{orb} < 400$ day, $< 800$ for $400 < P_{orb} < 1000$ day, and $< 12,000$ for $1000 < P_{orb} < 1500$ day.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Assessing the Impact of Binary Systems on Microlensing Using SPISEA and PopSyCLE Population Simulations

Gravitational microlensing provides a unique opportunity to probe the mass distribution of stars, black holes, and other objects in the Milky Way. Population simulations are necessary to interpret results from microlensing surveys. The contribution from binary objects is often neglected or minimized in analysis of observations and simulations despite the high percentage of binary systems and microlensing's ability to probe binaries. To simulate the population effects we added multiple systems to Stellar Population Interface for Stellar Evolution and Atmospheres (SPISEA), which simulates stellar clusters. We then inject these multiples into Population Synthesis for Compact-object Lensing Events (PopSyCLE), which simulates Milky Way microlensing surveys. When making OGLE observational selection criteria, we find that 55% of observed microlensing events involve a binary system. Specifically, 14.5% of events have a multiple-lens and a single source, 31.7% have a single lens and a multiple-source, and 8.8% have a multiple-lens and a multiple-source. The majority of these events have photometric lightcurves that appear single and are fit well by a single-lens, single-source model. This suggests that binary source and binary lens-binary source models should be included more frequently in event analysis. The mean Einstein crossing time shifts from 19.1 days for single events only to 21.3 days for singles and multiple events, after cutting binary events with multiple peaks. The Einstein crossing time distribution of singles and single-peaked multiple events is better aligned with observed distributions from OGLE (arXiv:1707.07634) than singles alone, indicating that multiple systems are a significant missing piece between simulations and reality.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Microlensing Events in Five Years of Photometry from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing has a unique advantage for detecting dark objects in the Milky Way, such as free-floating planets, neutron stars, and stellar-mass black holes. Most microlensing surveys focus on the Galactic bulge, where higher stellar density leads to a higher event rate. However, microlensing events in the Galactic plane have closer lenses and longer timescales, which leads to a greater chance of measuring microlens parallax, providing an additional constraint on the mass of the lens. This work searches for microlensing events in Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Data Release 17 from 2018--2023 in the Galactic plane region. We find 124 high-confidence microlensing events and 54 possible events, all available online\footref{online_resources}. Thus, with two years of additional ZTF data in DR17, we have more than doubled the number of microlensing events (60) found in the previous three-year DR5 search. In the event selection, we use the efficient \texttt{EventFinder} algorithm to detect microlensing signals, which could be used for large datasets such as future ZTF data releases or data from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Using detection efficiencies of ZTF fields obtained from catalog-level simulations, we calculate the mean Einstein timescale to be $\langle t_\mathrm{E}\rangle=51.7\pm3.3$ days, smaller than previous results of the Galactic plane but within 1.5$σ$. We also calculate optical depths and event rates, although some caution is needed due to the use of visual inspection when creating our final sample. Spectroscopy of three possible candidates confirms their microlensing nature.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Natal Kicks from the Galactic Center and Implications on their Environment and the Roman Space Telescope

Most galaxies, including the Milky Way, harbor a central supermassive black hole (SMBH) weighing millions to billions of solar masses. Surrounding these SMBHs are dense regions of stars and stellar remnants, such as neutron stars and black holes. Neutron stars and possibly black holes receive large natal kicks at birth on the order of hundreds of km s$^{-1}$. The natal kicks that occur in the vicinity of an SMBH may redistribute the orbital configuration of the compact objects and alter their underlying density distribution. We model the effects of natal kicks on a Galactic Center (GC) population of massive stars and stellar binaries with different initial density distributions. Using observational constraints from stellar orbits near the GC, we place an upper limit on the steepness of the initial stellar profile and find it to be core-like. In addition, we predict that $30-70 \%$ of compact objects become unbound from the SMBH due to their kicks and will migrate throughout the galaxy. Different black hole kick prescriptions lead to distinct spatial and kinematic distributions. We suggest that the Roman Space Telescope may be able to distinguish between these distributions and thus be able to differentiate natal kick mechanisms.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens-class of any single event. We investigate this method's effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of $30 M_{\odot}$. On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ${\approx}25$\%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

A re-analysis of the isolated black hole candidate OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191

There are expected to be $\sim 10^8$ isolated black holes (BHs) in the Milky Way. OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 (OB110462) is the only such BH with a mass measurement to date. However, its mass is disputed: Lam et al. (2022a,b) measured a lower mass of $1.6 - 4.4 M_\odot$, while Sahu et al. (2022); Mróz et al. (2022) measured a higher mass of $5.8 - 8.7 M_\odot$. We re-analyze OB110462, including new data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and re-reduced Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) photometry. We also re-reduce and re-analyze the HST dataset with newly available software. We find significantly different ($\sim 1$ mas) HST astrometry than Lam et al. (2022a,b) in the de-magnified epochs due to the amount of positional bias induced by a bright star $\sim$0.4 arcsec from OB110462. After modeling the updated photometric and astrometric datasets, we find the lens of OB110462 is a $6.0^{+1.2}_{-1.0} M_\odot$ BH. Future observations with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which will have an astrometric precision comparable or better to HST but a field of view $100\times$ larger, will be able to measure hundreds of isolated BH masses via microlensing. This will enable the measurement of the BH mass distribution and improve understanding of massive stellar evolution and BH formation channels.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Roman CCS White Paper: Characterizing the Galactic population of isolated black holes

Although there are estimated to be 100 million isolated black holes (BHs) in the Milky Way, only one has been found so far, resulting in significant uncertainty about their properties. The Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey provides the only opportunity in the coming decades to grow this catalog by order(s) of magnitude. This can be achieved if 1) Roman's astrometric potential is fully realized in the observation strategy and software pipelines, 2) Roman's observational gaps of the Bulge are minimized, and 3) observations with ground-based facilities are taken of the Bulge to fill in gaps during non-Bulge seasons. A large sample of isolated BHs will enable a broad range of astrophysical questions to be answered, such as massive stellar evolution, origin of gravitational wave sources, supernova physics, and the growth of supermassive BHs, maximizing Roman's scientific return.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

60 Microlensing Events from the Three Years of Zwicky Transient Facility Phase One

Microlensing events have historically been discovered throughout the Galactic bulge and plane by surveys designed solely for that purpose. We conduct the first multi-year search for microlensing events on the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), an all-sky optical synoptic survey that observes the entire visible Northern sky every few nights. We discover 60 high quality microlensing events in the three years of ZTF-I using the bulk lightcurves in the ZTF Public Data Release 5. 19 of our events are found outside of the Galactic plane ($|b| \geq 15^\circ$), nearly doubling the number of previously discovered events in the stellar halo from surveys pointed toward the Magellanic Clouds and the Andromeda Galaxy. We also record 1,558 ongoing candidate events as potential microlensing that can continue to be observed by ZTF-II for identification. The scalable and computationally efficient methods developed in this work can be applied to future synoptic surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, as they attempt to find microlensing events in even larger and deeper datasets.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Impact of Initial-Final Mass Relations on Black Hole Microlensing

Uncertainty in the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) has long been a problem in understanding the final stages of massive star evolution. One of the major challenges of constraining the IFMR is the difficulty of measuring the mass of non-luminous remnant objects (i.e. neutron stars and black holes). Gravitational wave detectors have opened the possibility of finding large numbers of compact objects in other galaxies, but all in merging binary systems. Gravitational lensing experiments using astrometry and photometry are capable of finding compact objects, both isolated and in binaries, in the Milky Way. In this work we improve the PopSyCLE microlensing simulation code in order to explore the possibility of constraining the IFMR using the Milky Way microlensing population. We predict that the Roman Space Telescope's microlensing survey will likely be able to distinguish different IFMRs based on the differences at the long end of the Einstein crossing time distribution and the small end of the microlensing parallax distribution, assuming the small ($π_E \lesssim 0.02$) microlensing parallaxes characteristic of black hole lenses are able to be measured accurately. We emphasize that future microlensing surveys need to be capable of characterizing events with small microlensing parallaxes in order to place the most meaningful constraints on the IFMR.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

An isolated mass gap black hole or neutron star detected with astrometric microlensing

We present the analysis of five black hole candidates identified from gravitational microlensing surveys. Hubble Space Telescope astrometric data and densely sampled lightcurves from ground-based microlensing surveys are fit with a single-source, single-lens microlensing model in order to measure the mass and luminosity of each lens and determine if it is a black hole. One of the five targets (OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 or OB110462 for short) shows a significant $>1$ mas coherent astrometric shift, little to no lens flux, and has an inferred lens mass of 1.6 - 4.4 $M_\odot$. This makes OB110462 the first definitive discovery of a compact object through astrometric microlensing and it is most likely either a neutron star or a low-mass black hole. This compact object lens is relatively nearby (0.70-1.92 kpc) and has a slow transverse motion of $<$30 km/s. OB110462 shows significant tension between models well-fit to photometry vs. astrometry, making it currently difficult to distinguish between a neutron star and a black hole. Additional observations and modeling with more complex system geometries, such as binary sources are needed to resolve the puzzling nature of this object. For the remaining four candidates, the lens masses are $<2 M_\odot$ and they are unlikely to be black holes; two of the four are likely white dwarfs or neutron stars. We compare the full sample of five candidates to theoretical expectations on the number of black holes in the Milky Way ($\sim 10^8$) and find reasonable agreement given the small sample size.

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