arXiv subjects

Cathie Sudlow

Publications and source records attributed to Cathie Sudlow.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Foresight-England: Development of a National-Scale Generative AI Model of Electronic Health Records for Medical Event Prediction across the COVID-19 Pandemic

Foresight-England (Foresight-E) is the first national-scale generative foundation model of electronic health records (EHRs), developed as a research pilot strictly for COVID-19 research. We evaluated its ability to model the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic. Trained from scratch entirely within the NHS England Secure Data Environment, Foresight-E is a 243-million-parameter transformer decoder. It was trained and evaluated on de-identified, longitudinal EHRs of approximately 61 million individuals, integrating primary/secondary care, death registrations, and COVID-19 data. Training and validation used a 90% subset (54.9 million) spanning November 2018 to December 2022; the remaining 10% (6.1 million) was held out for evaluation. Foresight-E models patient timelines autoregressively, predicting the next medical event given their prior history. At inference, it operates zero-shot, predicting any concept in its ~40,000-code vocabulary without task-specific training. Our tokenisation scheme retains the clinical granularity of ICD-10, OPCS-4, and SNOMED CT codes, jointly representing absolute and relative timing. We designed an evaluation framework for 30-day COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality, including subgroup analyses by demographic factors and vaccination status. To assess generalisation to unseen future data and the pandemic's indirect effects, we tested the model on medical events from 2023 (beyond its training period), benchmarking against logistic regression and XGBoost. As detailed in the Project Status section, NHS England has paused access to data for the Foresight-E project, meaning quantitative results are currently unavailable. Instead, we share our strategy for tokenisation, architecture, training, inference, and evaluation as a methodological template and case study in the challenges of building population-scale EHR foundation models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Efficiently Reusing Natural Language Processing Models for Phenotype-Mention Identification in Free-text Electronic Medical Records: Methodology Study

Background: Many efforts have been put into the use of automated approaches, such as natural language processing (NLP), to mine or extract data from free-text medical records to construct comprehensive patient profiles for delivering better health-care. Reusing NLP models in new settings, however, remains cumbersome - requiring validation and/or retraining on new data iteratively to achieve convergent results. Objective: The aim of this work is to minimize the effort involved in reusing NLP models on free-text medical records. Methods: We formally define and analyse the model adaptation problem in phenotype-mention identification tasks. We identify "duplicate waste" and "imbalance waste", which collectively impede efficient model reuse. We propose a phenotype embedding based approach to minimize these sources of waste without the need for labelled data from new settings. Results: We conduct experiments on data from a large mental health registry to reuse NLP models in four phenotype-mention identification tasks. The proposed approach can choose the best model for a new task, identifying up to 76% (duplicate waste), i.e. phenotype mentions without the need for validation and model retraining, and with very good performance (93-97% accuracy). It can also provide guidance for validating and retraining the selected model for novel language patterns in new tasks, saving around 80% (imbalance waste), i.e. the effort required in "blind" model-adaptation approaches. Conclusions: Adapting pre-trained NLP models for new tasks can be more efficient and effective if the language pattern landscapes of old settings and new settings can be made explicit and comparable. Our experiments show that the phenotype-mention embedding approach is an effective way to model language patterns for phenotype-mention identification tasks and that its use can guide efficient NLP model reuse.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Named Entity Recognition for Electronic Health Records: A Comparison of Rule-based and Machine Learning Approaches

This work investigates multiple approaches to Named Entity Recognition (NER) for text in Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. In particular, we look into the application of (i) rule-based, (ii) deep learning and (iii) transfer learning systems for the task of NER on brain imaging reports with a focus on records from patients with stroke. We explore the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, develop rules and train on a common dataset, and evaluate each system's performance on common test sets of Scottish radiology reports from two sources (brain imaging reports in ESS -- Edinburgh Stroke Study data collected by NHS Lothian as well as radiology reports created in NHS Tayside). Our comparison shows that a hand-crafted system is the most accurate way to automatically label EHR, but machine learning approaches can provide a feasible alternative where resources for a manual system are not readily available.

cs.CL↗