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Cengiz Pehlevan

Publications and source records attributed to Cengiz Pehlevan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

On the Importance of Gating: Memorization vs. In-Context Learning in State Space Models

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers, enabling sequence modeling with constant memory and linear compute. Although SSMs exhibit reasonable performance and favorable computational characteristics, they continue to lag behind Transformers on tasks that require in-context learning and precise retrieval, slowing their adoption for large-scale language modeling. In this work, we demonstrate that both the success and failure of SSMs in these domains can be explained by studying the role of the gating mechanism, a prevalent component in modern recurrent networks. Specifically, we show through theory and experiments that this gating mechanism causes SSMs to first learn an in-weights "memorization" solution, while delaying, or even preventing, convergence to a correct in-context learning solution. Importantly, this happens even in cases where there are no fundamental limitations due to the architecture or its memory capacity. On the other hand, we find that gating is often beneficial for improving generalization to long sequence lengths. Our results illuminate the crucial role of the gating mechanism in shaping both the training dynamics and generalization of SSMs, and provide a basis for understanding and improving linear-time models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Anytime Pretraining: Horizon-Free Learning-Rate Schedules with Weight Averaging

Large language models are increasingly trained in continual or open-ended settings, where the total training horizon is not known in advance. Despite this, most existing pretraining recipes are not anytime: they rely on horizon-dependent learning rate schedules and extensive tuning under a fixed compute budget. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating the existence of anytime learning schedules for overparameterized linear regression, and we highlight the central role of weight averaging - also known as model merging - in achieving the minimax convergence rates of stochastic gradient descent. We show that these anytime schedules polynomially decay with time, with the decay rate determined by the source and capacity conditions of the problem. Empirically, we evaluate 150M and 300M parameter language models trained for up to 32x Chinchilla scale, comparing constant and $1/\sqrt{t}$ schedules with weight averaging against a well-tuned cosine schedule. Across the full training range, the anytime schedules achieve comparable final loss to cosine decay. Taken together, our results suggest that weight averaging combined with simple, horizon-free step sizes offers a practical and effective anytime alternative to cosine learning rate schedules for large language model pretraining.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Universal One-third Time Scaling in Learning Peaked Distributions

Training large language models (LLMs) is computationally expensive, partly because the loss exhibits slow power-law convergence whose origin remains debatable. Through systematic analysis of toy models and empirical evaluation of LLMs, we show that this behavior can arise intrinsically from the use of softmax and cross-entropy. When learning peaked probability distributions, e.g., next-token distributions, these components generically yield power-law vanishing losses and gradients, regardless of many microscopic details, creating a fundamental optimization bottleneck. This ultimately leads to power-law time scaling of the loss with a universal exponent of $1/3$. Our results provide a mechanistic explanation for observed neural scaling and suggest new directions for improving LLM training efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Seesaw: Accelerating Training by Balancing Learning Rate and Batch Size Scheduling

Increasing the batch size during training -- a ''batch ramp'' -- is a promising strategy to accelerate large language model pretraining. While for SGD, doubling the batch size can be equivalent to halving the learning rate, the optimal strategy for adaptive optimizers like Adam is less clear. As a result, any batch-ramp scheduling, if used at all, is typically tuned heuristically. This work develops a principled framework for batch-size scheduling and introduces Seesaw: whenever a standard scheduler would halve the learning rate, Seesaw instead multiplies it by $1/\sqrt{2}$ and doubles the batch size, preserving loss dynamics while reducing serial steps. Theoretically, we provide, to our knowledge, the first finite-sample proof of equivalence between learning-rate decay and batch-size ramp-up for SGD on noisy linear regression, and we extend this equivalence to normalized SGD, a tractable proxy for Adam, under a variance-dominated regime observed in practice. Empirically, on 150M/300M/600M-parameter models trained at Chinchilla scale using a constant (critical) batch size, Seesaw matches cosine decay at equal FLOPs while reducing wall-clock time by $\approx 36\%$, approaching the theoretical limit implied by our analysis.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Defense of the Quadratic Model

Due to the complexity of neural network loss landscapes, optimization theory is forced to rely on idealized models, and there is generally a tradeoff between how theoretically tractable the model is, and how accurately it describes the true optimization dynamics. In this work, we stress test the simplest possible model of optimization -- the quadratic model -- and show that it can be surprisingly predictive in an LLM setting with 150M parameters and 3B training tokens. Specifically, we show that Taylor expanding the model and the loss function at intermediate checkpoints through training can accurately predict the optimization dynamics over windows that can last up to 10\% of training. Having established this agreement, we then turn to analyzing the structure of these local quadratic optimization problems through two lenses: the Hessian spectrum and local stability. Using Lanczos quadrature with extremely deep probes, we are able to estimate the Hessian spectrum deep into the tail, and we find a surprising amount of structure in both the eigenvalues and eigenvectors, which depends on the batch size, preconditioner, and training time. We also empirically test local linear stability at intermediate checkpoints and compare it to theoretical predictions to demonstrate that optimization in LLMs typically occurs at a stochastic edge of stability, whose nature is also determined by batch size. Our results indicate the quadratic model may be a theoretically tractable proxy for pretraining optimization dynamics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A Random Matrix Theory Perspective on the Consistency of Diffusion Models

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation $σ^2 \mapsto κ(σ^2)$, explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: \textit{anisotropy} across eigenmodes, \textit{inhomogeneity} across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Sequential Correlations Change In-Context Learning: Effective Context Length and Architectural Mismatch

Modern sequence models have a striking capacity for in-context learning (ICL); they can perform new tasks based only on examples given in the prompt. Understanding how this ability emerges requires theory that captures important properties of natural data. Linear regression has served as a useful sandbox for ICL theory, but existing work has largely focused on prompts with independent examples. In this work, we extend this setting to sequentially correlated data, a basic feature of real sequences. We present a solvable model based on linear attention and test our predictions on realistic transformer architectures. We identify two distinct effects: First, when the query token is independent of the context, within-context correlations induce an effective context length: correlated prompts behave like shorter i.i.d. prompts. Second, when the query is also correlated with its context, test error is reduced, particularly for softmax attention when compared to linear attention. These results suggest that correlated prompts alter not only the effective sample size of in-context learning, but also which attention architectures are best matched to the task.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Dynamics of learning to integrate in linear recurrent neural networks

Learning recurrent connectivity that supports memory over long intrinsic timescales is a basic problem in the theory of dynamical computation. While continuous attractor and integrator models describe how tuned recurrent circuits can maintain information, less is known about how such slow modes are acquired by gradient-based learning. Here we study this question in an analytically tractable setting: we build a mathematical theory of the learning dynamics of linear RNNs trained to integrate white noise. We show that when the initial recurrent weights are small, the dynamics of learning are described by a low-dimensional system that tracks a single outlier eigenvalue of the recurrent weights. This reveals the precise manner in which the long timescale associated with white noise integration is learned. We extend our analyses to RNNs learning a damped oscillatory filter, and find low-dimensional effective dynamical equations for the evolution of a conjugate pair of outlier eigenvalues. Taken together, our analyses build a rich mathematical framework for studying dynamical learning problems relevant to both machine learning and neuroscience.

q-bio.NC↗
arXiv2026

Risk and cross validation in ridge regression with correlated samples

Recent years have seen substantial advances in our understanding of high-dimensional ridge regression, but existing theories assume that training examples are independent. By leveraging techniques from random matrix theory and free probability, we provide sharp asymptotics for the in- and out-of-sample risks of ridge regression when the data points have arbitrary correlations. We demonstrate that in this setting, the generalized cross validation estimator (GCV) fails to correctly predict the out-of-sample risk. However, in the case where the noise residuals have the same correlations as the data points, one can modify the GCV to yield an efficiently-computable unbiased estimator that concentrates in the high-dimensional limit, which we dub CorrGCV. We further extend our asymptotic analysis to the case where the test point has nontrivial correlations with the training set, a setting often encountered in time series forecasting. Assuming knowledge of the correlation structure of the time series, this again yields an extension of the GCV estimator, and sharply characterizes the degree to which such test points yield an overly optimistic prediction of long-time risk. We validate the predictions of our theory across a variety of high dimensional data.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

An Asymptotic Theory of Chain-of-Thought in In-Context Learning

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has become a widely used mechanism for eliciting multi-step reasoning in large language models by generating intermediate reasoning steps at inference time. Yet the scaling behavior of generalization with CoT depth remains poorly understood. To address this question, we study a theoretically solvable model of CoT for in-context weight prediction in linear regression, where test-time reasoning is represented as an iterative refinement of the weight-parameter estimate. Using tools from random matrix theory under high-dimensional asymptotics, we derive an exact formula for the generalization error as a function of reasoning depth, pretraining data amount, and context length. Our analysis reveals a sharp phase transition separating exponential and polynomial improvement, saturation, and overthinking, and characterizes how the optimal reasoning depth scales. We further show that deeper reasoning is most effective with sufficiently rich pretraining and in-context information, whereas limited pretraining or context makes longer reasoning prone to error amplification or saturation. We also validate these predictions through experiments on fully learned linear attention and softmax attention models. Our results provide a unified theoretical account of how test-time CoT depth affects generalization.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Jailbreak Scaling Laws for Large Language Models: Polynomial-Exponential Crossover

Adversarial attacks can reliably steer safety-aligned large language models toward unsafe behavior. Empirically, we find that adversarial prompt-injection attacks can amplify attack success rate from the slow polynomial growth observed without injection to exponential growth with the number of inference-time samples. We first identify a minimal statistical mechanism for these two regimes by giving a small set of assumptions on the distribution of safe generation across contexts under which both scaling laws follow. To explain this phenomenon further, we propose a theoretical generative model of proxy language in terms of a spin-glass system operating in a replica-symmetry-breaking regime, where generations are drawn from the associated Gibbs measure and a subset of low-energy, size-biased clusters is designated unsafe. We analytically show how this model naturally realizes the minimal assumptions. Short injected prompts correspond to a weak magnetic field aligned towards unsafe cluster centers and yield a power-law scaling of attack success rate with the number of inference-time samples, while long injected prompts, i.e., strong magnetic field, yield exponential scaling. We observe qualitatively consistent behavior across a broad range of large language models, spanning parameter scales from 3B to 70B. In particular, the main trends remain stable across multiple attack methods, such as GCG and AutoDAN, as well as across benchmark datasets such as AdvBench and HarmBench.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Score Broadcast and Decorrelation: A General Framework for Broadcast-Based Credit Assignment

We introduce Score Broadcast and Decorrelation (SBD), a principled framework for broadcast-based credit assignment for general families of differentiable losses. Error broadcast is a biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation that sends output information to hidden layers without weight transport. The Error Broadcast and Decorrelation (EBD) framework, recently introduced for the mean-squared-error (MSE) setting, grounded this mechanism in the stochastic orthogonality of optimal estimators, under which the optimal residual is orthogonal to functions of the input. We generalize that foundation by introducing an orthogonality principle between the output score (the gradient of loss with respect to the final-layer output) and hidden-layer activations, which holds whenever the optimal score has conditional mean zero. This single principle unifies broadcast-based credit assignment across the standard differentiable-loss families, including cross-entropy, Bregman divergences, proper scoring rules, and exponential-family negative log-likelihoods. The framework supplies a theoretical grounding for the three-factor learning rule under general losses, with the neuromodulatory factor derived as the broadcast loss score. We derive the cross-entropy case explicitly, characterize the admissible loss class, and introduce a score vector expansion technique that enriches the broadcast signal while preserving the orthogonality framework. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and Tiny ImageNet show that SBD substantially improves over existing broadcast approaches, with score vector expansion delivering further gains. Overall, this work identifies the loss score as the signal to broadcast, supplies the orthogonality theory and theoretical grounding for the three-factor learning rule from neuroscience, and shows how score vector expansion enriches the decorrelation directions of the resulting objective.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Hyperparameter Transfer with Mixture-of-Expert Layers

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers have emerged as an important tool in scaling up modern neural networks by decoupling total trainable parameters from activated parameters in the forward pass for each token. However, sparse MoEs add complexity to training due to (i) new trainable parameters (router weights) that, like all other parameter groups, require hyperparameter (HP) tuning; (ii) new architecture scale dimensions (number of and size of experts) that must be chosen and potentially taken large. To make HP selection cheap and reliable, we propose a new parameterization for transformer models with MoE layers when scaling model width, depth, number of experts, and expert (hidden) size. Our parameterization is justified by a novel dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) analysis. When varying different model dimensions trained at a fixed token budget, we find empirically that our parameterization enables reliable HP transfer across models from 51M to over 2B total parameters. We further take HPs identified from sweeping small models on a short token horizon to train larger models on longer horizons and report performant model behaviors.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Spectral Dynamics in Deep Networks: Feature Learning, Outlier Escape, and Learning Rate Transfer

We study the evolution of hidden-weight spectra in wide neural networks trained by (stochastic) gradient descent. We develop a two-level dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) that jointly tracks bulk and outlier spectral dynamics for spiked ensembles whose spike directions remain statistically dependent on the random bulk. We apply this framework to two settings: (1) infinite-width nonlinear networks in mean-field/$μ$P scaling and (2) deep linear networks in the proportional high-dimensional limit, where width, input dimension, and sample size diverge with fixed ratios. Our theory predicts how outliers evolve with training time, width, output scale, and initialization variance. In deep linear networks, $μ$P yields width-consistent outlier dynamics and hyperparameter transfer, including width-stable growth of the leading NTK mode toward the edge of stability (EoS). In contrast, NTK parameterization exhibits strongly width-dependent outlier dynamics, despite converging to a stable large-width limit. We show that this bulk+outlier picture is descriptive of simple tasks with small output channels, but that tasks involving large numbers of outputs (ImageNet classification or GPT language modeling) are better described by a restructuring of the spectral bulk. We develop a toy model with extensive output channels that recapitulates this phenomenon and show that edge of the spectrum still converges for sufficiently wide networks.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗
arXiv2026

An Analytical Theory of Spectral Bias in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Models

We develop an analytical framework for understanding how the generated distribution evolves during diffusion model training. Leveraging a Gaussian-equivalence principle, we solve the full-batch gradient-flow dynamics of linear and convolutional denoisers and integrate the resulting probability-flow ODE, yielding analytic expressions for the generated distribution. The theory exposes a universal inverse-variance spectral law: the time for an eigen- or Fourier mode to match its target variance scales as $τ\proptoλ^{-1}$, so high-variance (coarse) structure is mastered orders of magnitude sooner than low-variance (fine) detail. Extending the analysis to deep linear networks and circulant full-width convolutions shows that weight sharing merely multiplies learning rates -- accelerating but not eliminating the bias -- whereas local convolution introduces a qualitatively different bias. Experiments on Gaussian and natural-image datasets confirm the spectral law persists in deep MLP-based UNet. Convolutional U-Nets, however, display rapid near-simultaneous emergence of many modes, implicating local convolution in reshaping learning dynamics. These results underscore how data covariance governs the order and speed with which diffusion models learn, and they call for deeper investigation of the unique inductive biases introduced by local convolution.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Correlative Information Maximization: A Biologically Plausible Approach to Supervised Deep Neural Networks without Weight Symmetry

The backpropagation algorithm has experienced remarkable success in training large-scale artificial neural networks; however, its biological plausibility has been strongly criticized, and it remains an open question whether the brain employs supervised learning mechanisms akin to it. Here, we propose correlative information maximization between layer activations as an alternative normative approach to describe the signal propagation in biological neural networks in both forward and backward directions. This new framework addresses many concerns about the biological-plausibility of conventional artificial neural networks and the backpropagation algorithm. The coordinate descent-based optimization of the corresponding objective, combined with the mean square error loss function for fitting labeled supervision data, gives rise to a neural network structure that emulates a more biologically realistic network of multi-compartment pyramidal neurons with dendritic processing and lateral inhibitory neurons. Furthermore, our approach provides a natural resolution to the weight symmetry problem between forward and backward signal propagation paths, a significant critique against the plausibility of the conventional backpropagation algorithm. This is achieved by leveraging two alternative, yet equivalent forms of the correlative mutual information objective. These alternatives intrinsically lead to forward and backward prediction networks without weight symmetry issues, providing a compelling solution to this long-standing challenge.

cs.NE↗
arXiv2026

Transfer Learning in Infinite Width Feature Learning Networks

We develop a theory of transfer learning in infinitely wide neural networks under gradient flow that quantifies when pretraining on a source task improves generalization on a target task. We analyze both (i) fine-tuning, when the downstream predictor is trained on top of source-induced features and (ii) a jointly rich setting, where both pretraining and downstream tasks can operate in a feature learning regime, but the downstream model is initialized with the features obtained after pre-training. In this setup, the summary statistics of randomly initialized networks after a rich pre-training are adaptive kernels which depend on both source data and labels. For (i), we analyze the performance of a readout for different pretraining data regimes. For (ii), the summary statistics after learning the target task are still adaptive kernels with features from both source and target tasks. We test our theory on linear and polynomial regression tasks as well as real datasets. Our theory allows interpretable conclusions on performance, which depend on the amount of data on both tasks, the alignment between tasks, and the feature learning strength.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Boule or Baguette? A Study on Task Topology, Length Generalization, and the Benefit of Reasoning Traces

Recent years have witnessed meteoric progress in reasoning models: neural networks that generate intermediate reasoning traces (RTs) before producing a final output. Despite the rapid advancement, our understanding of how RTs support reasoning, and the limits of this paradigm, remain incomplete. To promote greater clarity, we introduce PITA: a novel large-scale dataset of over 23 million statements in propositional logic and their corresponding proofs. As a benchmark for robust reasoning, we focus on length generalization: if a model is trained to determine truth or falsity on statements with proofs up to fixed length, how well does it generalize to statements requiring longer proofs? We propose notions of (1) task depth and (2) task breadth, which measure respectively (1) the number of steps required to solve an example from a task and (2) the number of unique examples across a task. We vary these quantities across subsets of PITA, and find that RT models generalize well on broad and shallow subsets, while deteriorating on narrow and deep subsets relative to non-RT baselines. To determine whether our results are idiosyncratic to PITA or indicative of general phenomena, we compare our results to a simple synthetic task based on syllogisms. Our resulting theory suggests fundamental scalings that limit how well RT models perform on deep tasks, and highlights their generalization strengths on broad tasks. Our findings overall identify fundamental benefits and limitations inherent in using reasoning traces.

cs.AI↗