arXiv subjects

Cenk Gazen

Publications and source records attributed to Cenk Gazen.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

High-resolution simulations unravel intensification mechanisms of pyrocumulonimbus clouds

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorms -- wildfire-generated thunderstorms -- can trigger rapid fire spread. However, the multi-physics nature of pyroCb has made their core mechanisms inaccessible to direct observation and previous simulation and prediction efforts. We introduce a new simulation capability with the first high-resolution, fully coupled simulations of a pyroCb, allowing us to unravel its life cycle governed by two opposing mechanisms. We show fuel moisture is an energy sink that attenuates fire intensity rather than fueling clouds, resolving a long-standing debate. Conversely, we identify the driver of rapid intensification: the Self-Amplifying Fire-Induced Recirculation (SAFIR) mechanism, where precipitation-induced downdrafts intensify the parent fire under weak winds. This work provides a new mechanistic framework for pyroCb prediction and demonstrates a transformative computational approach for previously intractable problems in environmental science.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

FireBench: A High-fidelity Ensemble Simulation Framework for Exploring Wildfire Behavior and Data-driven Modeling

Background. Wildfire research uses ensemble methods to analyze fire behaviors and assess uncertainties. Nonetheless, current research methods are either confined to simple models or complex simulations with limits. Modern computing tools could allow for efficient, high-fidelity ensemble simulations. Aims. This study proposes a high-fidelity ensemble wildfire simulation framework for studying wildfire behavior, ML tasks, fire-risk assessment, and uncertainty analysis. Methods. In this research, we present a simulation framework that integrates the Swirl-Fire large-eddy simulation tool for wildfire predictions with the Vizier optimization platform for automated run-time management of ensemble simulations and large-scale batch processing. All simulations are executed on tensor-processing units to enhance computational efficiency. Key results. A dataset of 117 simulations is created, each with 1.35 billion mesh points. The simulations are compared to existing experimental data and show good agreement in terms of fire rate of spread. Computations are done for fire acceleration, mean rate of spread, and fireline intensity. Conclusions. Strong coupling between these 2 parameters are observed for the fire spread and intermittency. A critical Froude number that delineates fires from plume-driven to convection-driven is identified and confirmed with literature observations. Implications. The ensemble simulation framework is efficient in facilitating parametric wildfire studies.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2023

A Machine Learning Outlook: Post-processing of Global Medium-range Forecasts

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic errors at a finer scale. In this pilot study, we investigate the benefits and challenges of using non-linear neural network (NN) based methods to post-process multiple weather features -- temperature, moisture, wind, geopotential height, precipitable water -- at 30 vertical levels, globally and at lead times up to 7 days. We show that we can achieve accuracy improvements of up to 12% (RMSE) in a field such as temperature at 850hPa for a 7 day forecast. However, we recognize the need to strengthen foundational work on objectively measuring a sharp and correct forecast. We discuss the challenges of using standard metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE) or anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) as we move from linear statistical models to more complex non-linear machine learning approaches for post-processing global weather forecasts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Skillful Twelve Hour Precipitation Forecasts using Large Context Neural Networks

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on physics and use supercomputers to simulate the atmosphere to make forecasts hours and days in advance. Better physics-based forecasts require improvements in the models themselves, which can be a substantial scientific challenge, as well as improvements in the underlying resolution, which can be computationally prohibitive. An emerging class of weather models based on neural networks represents a paradigm shift in weather forecasting: the models learn the required transformations from data instead of relying on hand-coded physics and are computationally efficient. For neural models, however, each additional hour of lead time poses a substantial challenge as it requires capturing ever larger spatial contexts and increases the uncertainty of the prediction. In this work, we present a neural network that is capable of large-scale precipitation forecasting up to twelve hours ahead and, starting from the same atmospheric state, the model achieves greater skill than the state-of-the-art physics-based models HRRR and HREF that currently operate in the Continental United States. Interpretability analyses reinforce the observation that the model learns to emulate advanced physics principles. These results represent a substantial step towards establishing a new paradigm of efficient forecasting with neural networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Machine Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Images

High-resolution nowcasting is an essential tool needed for effective adaptation to climate change, particularly for extreme weather. As Deep Learning (DL) techniques have shown dramatic promise in many domains, including the geosciences, we present an application of DL to the problem of precipitation nowcasting, i.e., high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) short-term (1 hour) predictions of precipitation. We treat forecasting as an image-to-image translation problem and leverage the power of the ubiquitous UNET convolutional neural network. We find this performs favorably when compared to three commonly used models: optical flow, persistence and NOAA's numerical one-hour HRRR nowcasting prediction.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2009

Interactive Data Integration through Smart Copy & Paste

In many scenarios, such as emergency response or ad hoc collaboration, it is critical to reduce the overhead in integrating data. Ideally, one could perform the entire process interactively under one unified interface: defining extractors and wrappers for sources, creating a mediated schema, and adding schema mappings ? while seeing how these impact the integrated view of the data, and refining the design accordingly. We propose a novel smart copy and paste (SCP) model and architecture for seamlessly combining the design-time and run-time aspects of data integration, and we describe an initial prototype, the CopyCat system. In CopyCat, the user does not need special tools for the different stages of integration: instead, the system watches as the user copies data from applications (including the Web browser) and pastes them into CopyCat?s spreadsheet-like workspace. CopyCat generalizes these actions and presents proposed auto-completions, each with an explanation in the form of provenance. The user provides feedback on these suggestions ? through either direct interactions or further copy-and-paste operations ? and the system learns from this feedback. This paper provides an overview of our prototype system, and identifies key research challenges in achieving SCP in its full generality.

cs.DB↗