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Ceren Vardar Acar

Publications and source records attributed to Ceren Vardar Acar.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Joint Laws of Maximum Drawdown and Maximum Drawup for Spectrally Negative Lévy Processes

Let X be a spectrally negative Lévy process observed up to an inde- pendent exponential time T with parameter γ > 0. We study the joint law of the maximum drawdown and the maximum drawup of X on [0, T ]. The path is decomposed according to the two possible orderings of its in- fimum and supremum. Conditional on the values of these extrema and on their ordering, the resulting pre-, intermediate, and post- components are independent. We identify their laws as Doob h-transforms of killed spec- trally negative Lévy processes and express the corresponding distribution functions explicitly in terms of the γ-scale functions W (γ) and Z(γ) and their derivatives. Combining the conditional laws with the joint densities of the extrema yields integral representations of the joint distribution and moments.

math.PR↗

Conditional Path Decomposition at the Infimum and Maximum Drawdowns for Spectrally Negative Lévy Processes

We study maximum-drawdown laws conditioned on extremes for a spectrally negative Lévy process and observed up to an independent exponential time. The main contribution is a set of scale-function characterizations of the pre-infimum path arising from two decompositions of the process. The first is the decomposition at the infimum into pre-infimum and post-infimum components. The second, under the ordering in which the infimum is attained before the supremum, decomposes the path into pre-infimum, intermediate, and post-supremum components. We also identify the distribution of the supremum for the pre-infimum process in the first decomposition. The resulting conditional laws are expressed as Doob $h$-transforms of killed spectrally negative Lévy processes and they yield explicit formulas for the maximum drawdown on each independent path component. The results confirm the classical decompositions for Brownian motion.

math.PR↗

Maximum loss and maximum gain of spectrally negative Levy processes

The joint distribution of the maximum loss and the maximum gain is obtained for a spectrally negative Levy process until the passage time of a given level. Their marginal distributions up to an independent exponential time are also provided. The existing formulas for Brownian motion with drift are recovered using the particular scale functions.Keywords Maximum drawdown Maximum drawup Spectrally negative Reflected process Fluctuation theory

math.PR↗

Estimation of Hurst Parameter of Fractional Brownian Motion Using CMARS Method

In this study, we develop a new theory of estimating Hurst parame- ter using conic multivariate adaptive regression splines (CMARS) method. We concentrate on the strong solution of stochastic differentional equations (SDEs) driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The superiority of our approach to the others is, it not only estimates the Hurst parameter but also finds spline parameters of the stochastic process in an adaptive way. We examine the performance of our estimations using simulated test data. Keywords: Stochastic differential equations, fractional Brownian motion, Hurst parameter, conic multivariate adaptive regression splines

math.PR↗