arXiv subjects

Charlie Pilgrim

Publications and source records attributed to Charlie Pilgrim.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Indecision and accuracy under social information across groups sizes

Observing the decisions and actions of others provides social information that can inform decisions such as whether to follow. We consider a model where agents simultaneously gather stochastic private information, each deciding once sufficiently confident. Observed decisions and indecision provide social information that triggers discrete waves of collective response: a first decision causes others to update and potentially follow, whose decisions in turn provide further social information, generating successive waves. We explore this model across a range of group sizes and report three main findings. First, social information leads to faster and more accurate decisions than individual decision-making, but agent-level accuracy is maximised at a finite optimal group size. This contrasts with the accuracy of the majority choice, which increases monotonically with the number of agents. Second, waves frequently fail to resolve collective indecision, particularly for smaller groups and when the first decision is incorrect, leaving a subgroup of agents unconvinced. Third, these remaining undecided agents are systematically biased and make less accurate subsequent decisions, with this inaccuracy growing with group size.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Determining social mechanisms for sequential decision-making in a virtual pedestrian route choice experiment

Moving groups are routinely faced with a choice of different routes as part of their daily lives, such as choosing between exits from a building. Differences in moving speeds and environmental constraints often lead to individuals being able to observe the choices of others ahead. This social information can inform their decision-making, but exactly how this is being used remains an open question. Previous theoretical studies on animal groups have demonstrated that simple heuristics are plausible and accurate mechanisms, with some further predicting that more recent decisions are more heavily weighted. Experiments with fish corroborate the importance of more recent decisions; however, experimental work is limited. Here, we conduct an online survey with human participants to identify which social decision-making mechanism individuals follow. Contrary to previous experimental work, we find little indication that recent decisions are weighted more heavily; instead, our results suggest that following the majority of previous decisions is the dominant behaviour. Furthermore, self-reported decision-making mechanisms correlate with our experimental findings despite their variability, suggesting that on average individuals can recognize their behavioural tendencies. Our findings give insight into social sequential decision-making, and provide an empirical foundation for integrating realistic social decision mechanisms into pedestrian movement models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Many-Eyes and Sentinels in Selfish and Cooperative Groups

Collective vigilance describes how animals in groups benefit from the predator detection efforts of others. Empirical observations typically find either a many-eyes strategy with all (or many) group members maintaining a low level of individual vigilance, or a sentinel strategy with one (or a few) individuals maintaining a high level of individual vigilance while others do not. With a general analytical treatment that makes minimal assumptions, we show that these two strategies are alternate solutions to the same adaptive problem of balancing the costs of predation and vigilance. Which strategy is preferred depends on how costs scale with the level of individual vigilance: many-eyes strategies are preferred where costs of vigilance rise gently at low levels but become steeper at higher levels (convex; e.g. an open field); sentinel strategies are preferred where costs of vigilance rise steeply at low levels and then flatten out (concave; e.g. environments with vantage points). This same dichotomy emerges whether individuals act selfishly to optimise their own fitness or cooperatively to optimise group fitness. The model is extended to explain discrete behavioural switching between strategies and differential levels of vigilance such as edge effects.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

The Computational Foundations of Collective Intelligence

Why do collectives outperform individuals when solving some problems? Fundamentally, collectives have greater computational resources with more sensory information, more memory, more processing capacity, and more ways to act. While greater resources present opportunities, there are also challenges in coordination and cooperation inherent in collectives with distributed, modular structures. Despite these challenges, we show how collective resource advantages lead directly to well-known forms of collective intelligence including the wisdom of the crowd, collective sensing, division of labour, and cultural learning. Our framework also generates testable predictions about collective capabilities in distributed reasoning and context-dependent behavioural switching. Through case studies of animal navigation and decision-making, we demonstrate how collectives leverage their computational resources to solve problems not only more effectively than individuals, but by using qualitatively different problem-solving strategies.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Individuals, Crowds, and the Network Dynamics of Belief Accuracy

Does talking to others make people more accurate or less accurate on numeric estimates such as quantitative evaluations or probabilistic forecasts? Research on peer-to-peer communication suggests that discussion between people will usually improve belief accuracy, while research on social networks suggests that error can percolate through groups and reduce accuracy. One challenge to interpreting empirical literature is that some studies measure accuracy at the group level, while others measure individual accuracy. We explain how social influence impacts belief accuracy by analyzing a formal model of opinion formation to identify the relationship between individual accuracy, group accuracy, and the network dynamics of belief formation. When opinions become more similar over time, change in individual error is always strictly better than change in group error, by a value equal to the change in variance. We show that change in group error can be decomposed into the influence network centralization, the accuracy/influence correlation ("calibration"), and the averageness/influence correlation ("herding"). Because group dynamics both theoretically and empirically lead people to become more similar over time, one might intuitively expect that the same factors which reduce group accuracy will also reduce individual accuracy. Instead, we find that individuals reliably improve under nearly all conditions, even when groups get worse. We support this analysis with data from six previously published experiments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Eat, Sleep, Code, Repeat: Tips for Early-Career Researchers in Computational Science

This article is intended as a guide for new graduate students in the field of computational science. With the increasing influx of students from diverse backgrounds joining the ever-popular field, this short guide aims to help students navigate through the various computational techniques that they are likely to encounter during their studies. These techniques span from Bash scripting and scientific programming to machine learning, among other areas. This paper is divided into ten sections, each introducing a different computational method. To enhance readability, we have adopted a casual and instructive tone, and included code snippets where relevant. Please note that due to the introductory nature of this article, it is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, we direct readers to a list of references to expand their knowledge of the techniques discussed within the paper. It is likely that this article will continue to evolve with time, and as such, we advise readers to seek the latest version. Finally, readers should note this article serves as an extension to our student-led seminar series, with additional resources and videos available at \url{https://computationaltoolkit.github.io/} for reference.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2021

The Rising Entropy of English in the Attention Economy

We present evidence that the word entropy of American English has been rising steadily since around 1900, contrary to predictions from existing sociolinguistic theories. We also find differences in word entropy between media categories, with short-form media such as news and magazines having higher entropy than long-form media, and social media feeds having higher entropy still. To explain these results we develop an ecological model of the attention economy that combines ideas from Zipf's law and information foraging. In this model, media consumers maximize information utility rate taking into account the costs of information search, while media producers adapt to technologies that reduce search costs, driving them to generate higher entropy content in increasingly shorter formats.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Bias in Zipf's Law Estimators

The prevailing maximum likelihood estimators for inferring power law models from rank-frequency data are biased. The source of this bias is an inappropriate likelihood function. The correct likelihood function is derived and shown to be computationally intractable. A more computationally efficient method of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is explored. This method is shown to have less bias for data generated from idealised rank-frequency Zipfian distributions. However, the existing estimators and the ABC estimator described here assume that words are drawn from a simple probability distribution, while language is a much more complex process. We show that this false assumption leads to continued biases when applying any of these methods to natural language to estimate Zipf exponents. We recommend that researchers be aware of these biases when investigating power laws in rank-frequency data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Organisational Social Influence on Directed Hierarchical Graphs, from Tyranny to Anarchy

Coordinated human behaviour takes place within a diverse range of social organisational structures, which can be thought of as power structures with "managers" who influence "subordinates". A change in policy in one part of the organisation can cause cascades throughout the structure, which may or may not be desirable. As organisations change in size, complexity and structure, the system dynamics also change. Here, we consider majority rule dynamics on organisations modelled as hierarchical directed graphs, where the directed edges indicate influence. We utilise a topological measure called the trophic incoherence parameter, q, which effectively gauges the stratification of power structure in an organisation. We show that this measure bounds regimes of behaviour. There is fast consensus at low q (e.g. tyranny), slow consensus at mid q (e.g. democracy), and no consensus at high q (e.g. anarchy). These regimes are investigated analytically, numerically and empirically with diverse case studies in the Roman Army, US Government, and a healthcare organisation. Our work demonstrates the usefulness of the trophic incoherence parameter when considering models of social influence dynamics, with widespread consequences in the design and analysis of organisations.

nlin.AO↗