arXiv subjects

Chengling Gou

Publications and source records attributed to Chengling Gou.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2010

A Security Price Volatile Trading Conditioning Model

We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use transaction volume probability to describe price volatility uncertainty and intensity. Applying the model to high frequent data test in China stock market, we have main findings as follows: 1) there is, in general, significant positive correlation between the rate of mean return and that of change in trading conditioning intensity; 2) it lacks significance in spite of positive correlation in two time intervals right before and just after bubble crashes; and 3) it shows, particularly, significant negative correlation in a time interval when SSE Composite Index is rising during bull market. Our model and findings can test both disposition effect and herd behavior simultaneously, and explain excessive trading (volume) and other anomalies in stock market.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2006

The Relations between Agent Performances and Their Intellective Abilities in Competing Systems

This paper studies the relations between agent performances and their intellective abilities in mix-games in which there are two groups of agents: one group plays a minority game, and the other plays a majority game. These two groups have different historical memories and different time horizons. It is found that these relations are greatly influenced by the configurations of historical memories of the two groups.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2006

Deduction of Initial Strategy Distributions of Agents in Mix-game Model

This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game model which is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-game to predict Shanghai Index, we find the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 2 who play minority game, but less sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 1 who play majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the initial strategy distributions and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

Predictability of Shanghai Stock Market by Agent-based Mix-game Model

This paper reports the effort of using agent-based mix-game model to predict financial time series. It introduces simple generic algorithm into the prediction methodology, and gives an example of its application to forecasting Shanghai Index. The results show that this prediction methodology is effective and agent-based mix-game model is a potential good model to predict time series of financial markets

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

Dynamic Behaviors of Mix-game Model and Its Applications

This paper proposes a modification to Minority Game (MG) by adding some agents who play majority game into MG. So it is referred to as mix-game. The highlight of this model is that the two groups of agents in mix-game have different bounded abilities to deal with history information and to count their own performance. Through simulations, this paper finds out that the local volatilities change a lot by adding some agents who play majority game into MG, and the change of local volatilities largely depends on different combinations of history memories of the two groups. Furthermore this paper analyses the underlying mechanisms for this finding. It also gives an example of applications of mix-game.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

System Efficiency vs. Individual Performance in Competing Systems

this paper addresses the issue of the relation between the system efficiency and the individual performance with different combinations of agent memory lengths in mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The average winnings of agents can represent the average individual performance and the volatility of a system can represent the efficiency of the system. It is found the correlations between the average winnings of agents and the medians of local volatilities are different when agent memory lengths change with different combinations of m1=m2, m1<m2=6 and m2<m1=6. This paper also gives some suggestions for designing complex competing systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

Design in Complex Systems: Individual Performance versus System Efficiency

This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correlations between the average winnings of agents and the mean of local volatilities are different with different combinations of agents' memory lengths when the proportion of agents in group1 increases. The average winnings of agents can represent the average individual performance and the volatility of a system can represent the efficiency of the system. Therefore, these results imply that the combinations of agents' memory lengths largely influence the relation between the system efficiency and the average individual performance. These results could give some guidance in designing complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

Agents Play Mix-game

In mix-game which is an extension of minority game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. This paper studies the change of the average winnings of agents and volatilities vs. the change of mixture of agents in mix-game model. It finds that the correlations between the average winnings of agents and the mean of local volatilities are different with different combinations of agent memory length when the proportion of agents in group 1 increases. This study result suggests that memory length of agents in group1 be smaller than that of agent in group2 when mix-game model is used to simulate the financial markets.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2005

The Quantitative Relations between Stock Prices and Quantities of Tradable Stock Shares and Its Applications

This paper analyzes the quantitative relations between stock prices and quantities of tradable stock shares in Chinese stock markets at six time points by means of Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) method. It is found the resulting formulae have the same structure but different parameters. This paper also uses these relationships in order to analyse the feasibility of policies for Chinese Government to sell the state-owned shares in Chinese stock markets.

physics.soc-ph↗