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Chengyi Tu

Publications and source records attributed to Chengyi Tu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamic Loss Balancing for Joint SOH and RUL Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries via a Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer

The deployment of reliable lithium-ion battery management systems is crucial for accelerating electrification, yet the joint prognosis of State of Health (SOH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) remains severely hindered by task heteroscedasticity. Conventional multi-task learning frameworks fail to balance the bounded, low-variance noise of SOH estimation with the unbounded, nonlinearly expanding uncertainty of long-term RUL predictions. Here, we present the Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer (RoSIP-Batt), a unified co-estimation framework that resolves these optimization conflicts. By formulating joint prediction as a Bayesian multi-task objective, RoSIP-Batt introduces a homoscedastic uncertainty weighting mechanism to dynamically scale task-specific gradients based on learned residual noise levels. The architecture leverages decoupled dual classification tokens and a per-dimension gated fusion mechanism, secured by a gradient-detachment operator to prevent high-variance RUL updates from corrupting the stable SOH representation space. To capture electrochemical degradation patterns without relying on absolute cycle steps, Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) is incorporated into a shared Transformer backbone to model translation-invariant relative temporal profiles. Crucially, the intermediate SOH estimate is directly injected into the RUL regression head as a physical degradation prior. Evaluations across the NASA, MIT-Stanford, and HUST datasets show that RoSIP-Batt significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing SOH estimation error to 1.994% MAE on NASA and restricting RUL prediction error to 62.85 cycles on Stanford. These findings establish RoSIP-Batt as a highly generalizable, computationally efficient solution suitable for real-time embedded BMS deployment.

cs.LG

Physics-Guided Masked Multi-Task Network for Edge-Friendly Battery Health Diagnostics from Sto-chastically Fragmented Charging Profiles

The deployment of reliable lithium-ion battery management systems is crucial for accelerating electrification, yet the joint prognosis of State of Health (SOH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) remains severely hindered by task heteroscedasticity. Conventional multi-task learning frameworks fail to balance the bounded, low-variance noise of SOH estimation with the unbounded, nonlinearly expanding uncertainty of long-term RUL predictions. Here, we present the Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer (RoSIP-Batt), a unified co-estimation framework that resolves these optimization conflicts. By formulating joint prediction as a Bayesian multi-task objective, RoSIP-Batt introduces a homoscedastic uncertainty weighting mechanism to dynamically scale task-specific gradients based on learned residual noise levels. The architecture leverages decoupled dual classification tokens and a per-dimension gated fusion mechanism, secured by a gradient-detachment operator to prevent high-variance RUL updates from corrupting the stable SOH representation space. To capture electrochemical degradation patterns without relying on absolute cycle steps, Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) is incorporated into a shared Transformer backbone to model translation-invariant relative temporal profiles. Crucially, the intermediate SOH estimate is directly injected into the RUL regression head as a physical degradation prior. Evaluations across the NASA, MIT-Stanford, and HUST datasets show that RoSIP-Batt significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing SOH estimation error to 1.994% MAE on NASA and restricting RUL prediction error to 62.85 cycles on Stanford. These findings establish RoSIP-Batt as a highly generalizable, computationally efficient solution suitable for real-time embedded BMS deployment.

cs.LG

Mathematical Modeling of Common-Pool Resources: A Comprehensive Review of Bioeconomics, Strategic Interaction, and Complex Adaptive Systems

The governance of common-pool resources-resource systems characterized by high subtractability of yield and difficulty of exclusion-constitutes one of the most persistent and intricate challenges in the fields of economics, ecology, and applied mathematics. This comprehensive review delineates the historical and theoretical evolution of the mathematical frameworks developed to analyze, predict, and manage these systems. We trace the intellectual trajectory from the early, deterministic bioeconomic models of the mid-20th century, which established the fundamental tension between individual profit maximization and collective efficiency, to the contemporary era of complex coupled human-environment system models. Our analysis systematically dissects the formalization of the "Tragedy of the Commons" through the lens of classical cooperative and non-cooperative game theory, examining how the N-person Prisoner's Dilemma and Nash Equilibrium concepts provided the initial, albeit pessimistic, predictive baseline. We subsequently explore the "Ostrom Turn," which necessitated the integration of institutional realism-specifically monitoring, graduated sanctions, and communication-into formal game-theoretic structures. The review further investigates the relaxation of rationality assumptions via evolutionary game theory and behavioral economics, highlighting the destabilizing roles of prospect theory and hyperbolic discounting. Finally, we synthesize recent advances in stochastic differential equations and agent-based computational economics, which capture the critical roles of spatial heterogeneity, noise-induced regime shifts, and early warning signals of collapse. By unifying these diverse mathematical threads, this review elucidates the shifting paradigm from static optimization to dynamic resilience in the management of the commons.

econ.GN

The Global Food Trade Network as a Complex Adaptive System: A Review of Structure, Evolution, and Resilience

The global food system has metamorphosed from a loose aggregation of bilateral exchanges into a highly intricate, interdependent Global Food Trade Network (FTN). This comprehensive review synthesizes the extant literature to examine the FTN through the rigorous lens of complex network science, moving beyond traditional economic trade models to quantify the system's topological architecture. We delineate the network's historical transition from a unipolar, efficiency-driven system dominated by Western hegemony to a multipolar, regionalized structure characterized by high clustering and scale-free heterogeneity. Special emphasis is placed on the dual nature of connectivity, which functions simultaneously as a buffer against local production variances and a conduit for global contagion. By conceptualizing the FTN as a multiplex system-distinguishing between the robust topology of wheat, the brittle regionalism of rice, and the polarized "dumbbell" structure of soy-we elucidate the distinct structural vulnerabilities inherent in modern food security. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of recent high-magnitude shocks, specifically the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, illustrating the critical trade-off between logistical efficiency and systemic resilience. The review concludes by assessing the future trajectory of the network under anthropogenic climate change, predicting a poleward migration of comparative advantage that necessitates a paradigm shift from isolationist protectionism to cooperative network redundancy.

econ.TH

Compressing Complexity: A Critical Synthesis of Structural, Analytical, and Data-Driven Dimensionality Reduction in Dynamical Networks

The contemporary scientific landscape is characterized by a "curse of dimensionality," where our capacity to collect high-dimensional network data frequently outstrips our ability to computationally simulate or intuitively comprehend the underlying dynamics. This review provides a comprehensive synthesis of the methodologies developed to resolve this paradox by extracting low-dimensional "macroscopic theories" from complex systems. We classify these approaches into three distinct methodological lineages: Structural Coarse-Graining, which utilizes spectral and topological renormalization to physically contract the network graph; Analytical-Based Reduction, which employs rigorous ansatzes (such as Watanabe-Strogatz and Ott-Antonsen) and moment closures to derive reduced differential equations ; and Data-Driven Reduction, which leverages manifold learning and operator-theoretic frameworks (e.g., Koopman analysis) to infer latent dynamics from observational trajectories. We posit that the selection of a reduction strategy is governed by a fundamental "No Free Lunch" theorem, establishing a Pareto frontier between computational tractability and physical fidelity. Furthermore, we identify a growing epistemological schism between equation-based derivations that preserve causal mechanisms and black-box inference that prioritizes prediction. We conclude by discussing emerging frontiers, specifically the necessity of Higher-Order Laplacian Renormalization for simplicial complexes and the development of hybrid "Scientific Machine Learning" architectures-such as Neural ODEs-that fuse analytical priors with deep learning to solve the closure problem.

physics.gen-ph

IVGAE-TAMA-BO: A novel temporal dynamic variational graph model for link prediction in global food trade networks with momentum structural memory and Bayesian optimization

Global food trade plays a crucial role in ensuring food security and maintaining supply chain stability. However, its network structure evolves dynamically under the influence of geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, making it challenging to model and predict future trade links. Effectively capturing temporal patterns in food trade networks is therefore essential for improving the accuracy and robustness of link prediction. This study introduces IVGAE-TAMA-BO, a novel dynamic graph neural network designed to model evolving trade structures and predict future links in global food trade networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply dynamic graph neural networks to this domain, significantly enhancing predictive performance. Building upon the original IVGAE framework, the proposed model incorporates a Trade-Aware Momentum Aggregator (TAMA) to capture the temporal evolution of trade networks, jointly modeling short-term fluctuations and long-term structural dependencies. A momentum-based structural memory mechanism further improves predictive stability and performance. In addition, Bayesian optimization is used to automatically tune key hyperparameters, enhancing generalization across diverse trade scenarios. Extensive experiments on five crop-specific datasets demonstrate that IVGAE-TAMA substantially outperforms the static IVGAE and other dynamic baselines by effectively modeling temporal dependencies, while Bayesian optimization further boosts performance in IVGAE-TAMA-BO. These results highlight the proposed framework as a robust and scalable solution for structural prediction in global trade networks, with strong potential for applications in food security monitoring and policy decision support.

cs.AI

Fine-Grained Sentiment Analysis of Electric Vehicle User Reviews: A Bidirectional LSTM Approach to Capturing Emotional Intensity in Chinese Text

The rapid expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) industry has highlighted the importance of user feedback in improving product design and charging infrastructure. Traditional sentiment analysis methods often oversimplify the complexity of user emotions, limiting their effectiveness in capturing nuanced sentiments and emotional intensities. This study proposes a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network-based sentiment scoring model to analyze user reviews of EV charging infrastructure. By assigning sentiment scores ranging from 0 to 5, the model provides a fine-grained understanding of emotional expression. Leveraging a dataset of 43,678 reviews from PC Auto, the study employs rigorous data cleaning and preprocessing, including tokenization and stop word removal, to optimize input for deep learning. The Bi-LSTM model demonstrates significant improvements over traditional approaches like SnowNLP across key evaluation metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Explained Variance Score (EVS). These results highlight the model's superior capability to capture nuanced sentiment dynamics, offering valuable insights for targeted product and service enhancements in the EV ecosystem.

cs.AI

Quantifying Global Food Trade: A Net Caloric Content Approach to Food Trade Network Analysis

As the global population and the per capita demand for resource intensive diets continues to grow, the corresponding increase in food demand challenges the global food system, enhancing its reliance on trade. Most previous research typically constructed either unweighted networks or weighted solely by tonnage to represent food trade, and focused on bilateral trade relationships between pairs of countries. This study investigates the properties of global food trade constructed in terms of total food calories associated with all the main food products exchanged along each trade link (edge of the food trade network). Utilizing data from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1986 and 2022, we construct a directed, weighted network of net caloric flows between countries. This approach highlights the importance of considering nutritional value in discussions of food security and trade policies, offering a more holistic view of global food trade dynamics. Our analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in trade patterns, with certain countries emerging as major exporters or importers of food calories. Moreover, we employ network measures, including network connectivity, network heterogeneity, network modularity, and node correlation similarity, to elucidate the structural dynamics of global net food calorie trade networks that are relevant to the stability and resilience of the global food system. Our work provides a more nuanced understanding of global food trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to enhance the resilience and sustainability of food trade networks.

econ.GN

The role of the Allee effect in common-pool resource and its sustainability

The management of common-pool resources is a complex challenge due to the risk of overexploitation and the tragedy of the commons. A novel framework has been introduced to address this issue, focusing on the coevolutionary relationship between human behavior and common-pool resources within a human-environment system. However, the impact of the Allee effect on the coevolution and its resource sustainability is still unexplored. The Allee effect, a biological phenomenon characterized by a correlation between resource availability and growth rate, is a fundamental attribute of numerous natural resources. In this paper, we introduce two coevolutionary models of resource and strategy under replicator dynamics and knowledge feedback by applying the Allee effect to the common-pool resources within human-environment system. These models encapsulate various facets of resource dynamics and the players' behavior, such as resource growth function, the extraction rates, and the strategy update rules. We find that the Allee effect can induce bi-stability and critical transition, leading to either sustainable or unsustainable outcomes depending on the initial condition and parameter configuration. We demonstrate that knowledge feedback enhances the resilience and sustainability of the coevolving system, and these results advances the understanding of human-environment system and management of common-pool resources.

econ.TH

Modelling co-evolution of resource feedback and social network dynamics in human-environmental systems

Games with environmental feedback have become a crucial area of study across various scientific domains, modelling the dynamic interplay between human decisions and environmental changes, and highlighting the consequences of our choices on natural resources and biodiversity. In this work, we propose a co-evolutionary model for human-environment systems that incorporates the effects of knowledge feedback and social interaction on the sustainability of common pool resources. The model represents consumers as agents who adjust their resource extraction based on the resource's state. These agents are connected through social networks, where links symbolize either affinity or aversion among them. The interplay between social dynamics and resource dynamics is explored, with the system's evolution analyzed across various network topologies and initial conditions. We find that knowledge feedback can independently sustain common pool resources. However, the impact of social interactions on sustainability is dual-faceted: it can either support or impede sustainability, influenced by the network's connectivity and heterogeneity. A notable finding is the identification of a critical network mean degree, beyond which a depletion/repletion transition parallels an absorbing/active state transition in social dynamics, i.e., individual agents and their connections are/are not prone to being frozen in their social states. Furthermore, the study examines the evolution of the social network, revealing the emergence of two polarized groups where agents within each community have the same affinity. Comparative analyses using Monte-Carlo simulations and rate equations are employed, along with analytical arguments, to reinforce the study's findings. The model successfully captures how information spread and social dynamics may impact the sustanebility of common pool resource.

physics.soc-ph

Coevolution of Resource and Strategies in Common-Pool Resource Dilemmas: A Coupled Human-Environmental System Model

Common-pool resource governance requires users to cooperate and avoid overexploitation, but defection and free-riding often undermine cooperation. We model a human-environmental system that integrates dynamics of resource and users' strategies. The resource follows a logistic function that depends on natural growth rate, carrying capacity, and extraction rates of cooperators and defectors. The users' strategies evolve according to different processes that capture effects of payoff, resource, and noise. We analyze the feedback between resource availability and strategic adaptation, and explores the conditions for the emergence and maintenance of cooperation. We find different processes lead to different regimes of equilibrium solutions and resource levels depending on the parameter configuration and initial conditions. We also show that some processes can enhance the sustainability of the resource by making the users more responsive to the resource scarcity. The paper advances the understanding of human-environmental system and offers insights for resource governance policies and interventions.

econ.TH

Dimensionality reduction of networked systems with separable coupling-dynamics: theory and applications

Complex dynamical systems are prevalent in various domains, but their analysis and prediction are hindered by their high dimensionality and nonlinearity. Dimensionality reduction techniques can simplify the system dynamics by reducing the number of variables, but most existing methods do not account for networked systems with separable coupling-dynamics, where the interaction between nodes can be decomposed into a function of the node state and a function of the neighbor state. Here, we present a novel dimensionality reduction framework that can effectively capture the global dynamics of these networks by projecting them onto a low-dimensional system. We derive the reduced system's equation and stability conditions, and propose an error metric to quantify the reduction accuracy. We demonstrate our framework on two examples of networked systems with separable coupling-dynamics: a modified susceptible-infected-susceptible model with direct infection and a modified Michaelis-Menten model with activation and inhibition. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and empirical networks to validate and evaluate our framework, and find a good agreement between the original and reduced systems. We also investigate the effects of different network structures and parameters on the system dynamics and the reduction error. Our framework offers a general and powerful tool for studying complex dynamical networks with separable coupling-dynamics.

math.DS

Impact of resource availability and conformity effect on sustainability of common-pool resources

Sustainability of common-pool resources hinges on the interplay between human and environmental systems. However, there is still a lack of a novel and comprehensive framework for modelling extraction of common-pool resources and cooperation of human agents that can account for different factors that shape the system behavior and outcomes. In particular, we still lack a critical value for ensuring resource sustainability under different scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel framework for studying resource extraction and cooperation in human-environmental systems for common-pool resources. We explore how different factors, such as resource availability and conformity effect, influence the players' decisions and the resource outcomes. We identify critical values for ensuring resource sustainability under various scenarios. We demonstrate the observed phenomena are robust to the complexity and assumptions of the models and discuss implications of our study for policy and practice, as well as the limitations and directions for future research.

econ.TH

Dimensionality Reduction in Stochastic Complex Dynamical Networks

Complex systems are ubiquitous in nature and engineering, but their analysis and control are hampered by their high dimensionality and the influence of various factors on their dynamics. Dimensionality reduction aims to find a low-dimensional representation of the complex system that preserves its essential features and reveals its underlying mechanisms and long-term dynamics. However, most existing methods for dimensionality reduction assume deterministic systems, while many real-world systems exhibit stochasticity. Here, we develop a general analytical framework for dimensionality reduction of stochastic complex dynamical networks that can map a high-dimensional system with stochastic terms to a low-dimensional effective system with a single effective state variable and few effective parameters. The effective parameters are those that determine the network's dynamical behavior and are associated with specific system states. The effective equation is a low-dimensional representation of the original stochastic complex dynamical network that preserves its essential dynamical features. The framework also allows us to analyze the dynamic behavior and potential convergence of the stochastic complex dynamical network by using the standard deviation of the effective equation.

math.DS

Dimensionality reduction of discrete-time dynamical systems

One of the outstanding problems in complexity science and dynamical system theory is understanding the dynamic behavior of high-dimensional networked systems and their susceptibility to transitions to undesired states. Because of varied interactions, large number of parameters and different initial conditions, the study is extremely difficult and existing methods can be applied only to continuous-time systems. Here we propose an analytical framework for collapsing N-dimensional discrete-time systems into a S+1-dimensional manifold as a function of S effective parameters with S << N. Specifically, we provide a quantitative prediction of the quality of the low-dimensional collapse. We test our framework on a variety of real-world complex systems showing its good performance and correctly identify the regions in the parameter space corresponding to the system's transitions. Our work offers an analytical tool to reduce dimensionality of discrete-time networked systems that can be applied to a broader set of systems and dynamics.

math.DS

The emergence of cooperation from shared goals in the Systemic Sustainability Game of common pool resources

The sustainable use of common-pool resources (CPRs) is a major environmental governance challenge because of their possible over-exploitation. Research in this field has overlooked the feedback between user decisions and resource dynamics. Here we develop an online game to perform a set of experiments in which users of the same CPR decide on their individual harvesting rates, which in turn depend on the resource dynamics. We show that, if users share common goals, a high level of self-organized cooperation emerges, leading to long-term resource sustainability. Otherwise, selfish/individualistic behaviors lead to resource depletion ("Tragedy of the Commons"). To explain these results, we develop an analytical model of coupled resource-decision dynamics based on optimal control theory and show how this framework reproduces the empirical results.

econ.TH

Brain Controllability: not a slam dunk yet

In our recent article (Tu et al., Warnings and caveats in brain controllability, arXiv:1705.08261) we provided quantitative evidence to show that there are warnings and caveats in the way Gu and collaborators (Gu et al. Controllability of structural brain networks. Nature communications 6 (2015): 8414) define brain controllability. The comment by Pasqualetti et al. (Pasqualetti et al. RE: Warnings and Caveats in Brain Controllability. NeuroImage 297 (2019), 586-588) confirms the need to go beyond the methodology and approach presented in Gu et al. original work. In fact, they recognize that the source of confusion is due to the fact that assessing controllability via numerical analysis typically leads to ill-conditioned problems, and thus often generates results that are difficult to interpret. This is indeed the first warning we discussed: our work was not meant to prove that brain networks are not controllable from one node, rather we wished to highlight that the one node controllability framework and all consequent results were not properly justified based on the methodology presented in Gu et al. We used in our work the same method of Gu et al. not because we believe it is the best methodology, but because we extensively investigated it with the aim of replicating, testing and extending their results. And the warning and caveats we have proposed are the results of this investigation.

q-bio.QM

Critical slowing down associated with critical transition and risk of collapse in cryptocurrency

The year 2017 saw the rise and fall of the crypto-currency market, followed by high variability in the price of all crypto-currencies. In this work, we study the abrupt transition in crypto-currency residuals, which is associated with the critical transition (the phenomenon of critical slowing down) or the stochastic transition phenomena. We find that, regardless of the specific crypto-currency or rolling window size, the autocorrelation always fluctuates around a high value, while the standard deviation increases monotonically. Therefore, while the autocorrelation does not display signals of critical slowing down, the standard deviation can be used to anticipate critical or stochastic transitions. In particular, we have detected two sudden jumps in the standard deviation, in the second quarter of 2017 and at the beginning of 2018, which could have served as early warning signals of two majors price collapses that have happened in the following periods. We finally propose a mean-field phenomenological model for the price of crypto-currency to show how the use of the standard deviation of the residuals is a better leading indicator of the collapse in price than the time series' autocorrelation. Our findings represent a first step towards a better diagnostic of the risk of critical transition in the price and/or volume of crypto-currencies.

q-fin.ST