arXiv subjects

Chirag Nagpal

Publications and source records attributed to Chirag Nagpal.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Globalizing Fairness Attributes in Machine Learning: A Case Study on Health in Africa

With growing machine learning (ML) applications in healthcare, there have been calls for fairness in ML to understand and mitigate ethical concerns these systems may pose. Fairness has implications for global health in Africa, which already has inequitable power imbalances between the Global North and South. This paper seeks to explore fairness for global health, with Africa as a case study. We propose fairness attributes for consideration in the African context and delineate where they may come into play in different ML-enabled medical modalities. This work serves as a basis and call for action for furthering research into fairness in global health.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Recovering Sparse and Interpretable Subgroups with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Censored Time-to-Event Outcomes

Studies involving both randomized experiments as well as observational data typically involve time-to-event outcomes such as time-to-failure, death or onset of an adverse condition. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to loss of follow-up and established statistical practice involves comparing treatment efficacy in terms of hazard ratios between the treated and control groups. In this paper we propose a statistical approach to recovering sparse phenogroups (or subtypes) that demonstrate differential treatment effects as compared to the study population. Our approach involves modelling the data as a mixture while enforcing parameter shrinkage through structured sparsity regularization. We propose a novel inference procedure for the proposed model and demonstrate its efficacy in recovering sparse phenotypes across large landmark real world clinical studies in cardiovascular health.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Counterfactual Phenotyping with Censored Time-to-Events

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in such scenarios requires decoupling the effects of confounding physiological characteristics that affect baseline survival rates from the effects of the interventions being assessed. In this paper, we present a latent variable approach to model heterogeneous treatment effects by proposing that an individual can belong to one of latent clusters with distinct response characteristics. We show that this latent structure can mediate the base survival rates and helps determine the effects of an intervention. We demonstrate the ability of our approach to discover actionable phenotypes of individuals based on their treatment response on multiple large randomized clinical trials originally conducted to assess appropriate treatments to reduce cardiovascular risk.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

auton-survival: an Open-Source Package for Regression, Counterfactual Estimation, Evaluation and Phenotyping with Censored Time-to-Event Data

Applications of machine learning in healthcare often require working with time-to-event prediction tasks including prognostication of an adverse event, re-hospitalization or death. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to loss of follow up. Standard machine learning methods cannot be applied in a straightforward manner to datasets with censored outcomes. In this paper, we present auton-survival, an open-source repository of tools to streamline working with censored time-to-event or survival data. auton-survival includes tools for survival regression, adjustment in the presence of domain shift, counterfactual estimation, phenotyping for risk stratification, evaluation, as well as estimation of treatment effects. Through real world case studies employing a large subset of the SEER oncology incidence data, we demonstrate the ability of auton-survival to rapidly support data scientists in answering complex health and epidemiological questions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Deep Cox Mixtures for Survival Regression

Survival analysis is a challenging variation of regression modeling because of the presence of censoring, where the outcome measurement is only partially known, due to, for example, loss to follow up. Such problems come up frequently in medical applications, making survival analysis a key endeavor in biostatistics and machine learning for healthcare, with Cox regression models being amongst the most commonly employed models. We describe a new approach for survival analysis regression models, based on learning mixtures of Cox regressions to model individual survival distributions. We propose an approximation to the Expectation Maximization algorithm for this model that does hard assignments to mixture groups to make optimization efficient. In each group assignment, we fit the hazard ratios within each group using deep neural networks, and the baseline hazard for each mixture component non-parametrically. We perform experiments on multiple real world datasets, and look at the mortality rates of patients across ethnicity and gender. We emphasize the importance of calibration in healthcare settings and demonstrate that our approach outperforms classical and modern survival analysis baselines, both in terms of discriminative performance and calibration, with large gains in performance on the minority demographics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Deep Survival Machines: Fully Parametric Survival Regression and Representation Learning for Censored Data with Competing Risks

We describe a new approach to estimating relative risks in time-to-event prediction problems with censored data in a fully parametric manner. Our approach does not require making strong assumptions of constant proportional hazard of the underlying survival distribution, as required by the Cox-proportional hazard model. By jointly learning deep nonlinear representations of the input covariates, we demonstrate the benefits of our approach when used to estimate survival risks through extensive experimentation on multiple real world datasets with different levels of censoring. We further demonstrate advantages of our model in the competing risks scenario. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work involving fully parametric estimation of survival times with competing risks in the presence of censoring.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian Consensus: Consensus Estimates from Miscalibrated Instruments under Heteroscedastic Noise

We consider the problem of aggregating predictions or measurements from a set of human forecasters, models, sensors or other instruments which may be subject to bias or miscalibration and random heteroscedastic noise. We propose a Bayesian consensus estimator that adjusts for miscalibration and noise and show that this estimator is unbiased and asymptotically more efficient than naive alternatives. We further propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model that leverages our proposed estimator and apply it to two real world forecasting challenges that require consensus estimates from error prone individual estimates: forecasting influenza like illness (ILI) weekly percentages and forecasting annual earnings of public companies. We demonstrate that our approach is effective at mitigating bias and error and results in more accurate forecasts than existing consensus models.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2020

Interpretable Subgroup Discovery in Treatment Effect Estimation with Application to Opioid Prescribing Guidelines

The dearth of prescribing guidelines for physicians is one key driver of the current opioid epidemic in the United States. In this work, we analyze medical and pharmaceutical claims data to draw insights on characteristics of patients who are more prone to adverse outcomes after an initial synthetic opioid prescription. Toward this end, we propose a generative model that allows discovery from observational data of subgroups that demonstrate an enhanced or diminished causal effect due to treatment. Our approach models these sub-populations as a mixture distribution, using sparsity to enhance interpretability, while jointly learning nonlinear predictors of the potential outcomes to better adjust for confounding. The approach leads to human-interpretable insights on discovered subgroups, improving the practical utility for decision support

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Nonlinear Semi-Parametric Models for Survival Analysis

Semi-parametric survival analysis methods like the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) regression (Cox, 1972) are a popular approach for survival analysis. These methods involve fitting of the log-proportional hazard as a function of the covariates and are convenient as they do not require estimation of the baseline hazard rate. Recent approaches have involved learning non-linear representations of the input covariates and demonstrate improved performance. In this paper we argue against such deep parameterizations for survival analysis and experimentally demonstrate that more interpretable semi-parametric models inspired from mixtures of experts perform equally well or in some cases better than such overly parameterized deep models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Preserving Intermediate Objectives: One Simple Trick to Improve Learning for Hierarchical Models

Hierarchical models are utilized in a wide variety of problems which are characterized by task hierarchies, where predictions on smaller subtasks are useful for trying to predict a final task. Typically, neural networks are first trained for the subtasks, and the predictions of these networks are subsequently used as additional features when training a model and doing inference for a final task. In this work, we focus on improving learning for such hierarchical models and demonstrate our method on the task of speaker trait prediction. Speaker trait prediction aims to computationally identify which personality traits a speaker might be perceived to have, and has been of great interest to both the Artificial Intelligence and Social Science communities. Persuasiveness prediction in particular has been of interest, as persuasive speakers have a large amount of influence on our thoughts, opinions and beliefs. In this work, we examine how leveraging the relationship between related speaker traits in a hierarchical structure can help improve our ability to predict how persuasive a speaker is. We present a novel algorithm that allows us to backpropagate through this hierarchy. This hierarchical model achieves a 25% relative error reduction in classification accuracy over current state-of-the art methods on the publicly available POM dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

An Entity Resolution approach to isolate instances of Human Trafficking online

Human trafficking is a challenging law enforcement problem, and a large amount of such activity manifests itself on various online forums. Given the large, heterogeneous and noisy structure of this data, building models to predict instances of trafficking is an even more convolved a task. In this paper we propose and entity resolution pipeline using a notion of proxy labels, in order to extract clusters from this data with prior history of human trafficking activity. We apply this pipeline to 5M records from backpage.com and report on the performance of this approach, challenges in terms of scalability, and some significant domain specific characteristics of our resolved entities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Twitter User Classification using Ambient Metadata

Microblogging websites, especially Twitter have become an important means of communication, in today's time. Often these services have been found to be faster than conventional news services. With millions of users, a need was felt to classify users based on ambient metadata associated with their user accounts. We particularly look at the effectiveness of the profile description field in order to carry out the task of user classification. Our results show that such metadata can be an effective feature for any classification task.

cs.SI↗