arXiv subjects

Chitradipa Chakraborty

Publications and source records attributed to Chitradipa Chakraborty.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cluster-Based Bayesian SIRD Modeling of Chickenpox Epidemiology in India

This study presents a cluster-based Bayesian SIRD model to analyze the epidemiology of chickenpox (varicella) in India, utilizing data from 1990 to 2021. We employed an age-structured approach, dividing the population into juvenile, adult, and elderly groups, to capture the disease's transmission dynamics across diverse demographic groups. The model incorporates a Holling-type incidence function, which accounts for the saturation effect of transmission at high prevalence levels, and applies Bayesian inference to estimate key epidemiological parameters, including transmission rates, recovery rates, and mortality rates. The study further explores cluster analysis to identify regional clusters within India based on the similarities in chickenpox transmission dynamics, using criteria like incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. We perform K-means clustering to uncover three distinct epidemiological regimes, which vary in terms of outbreak potential and age-specific dynamics. The findings highlight juveniles as the primary drivers of transmission, while the elderly face a disproportionately high mortality burden. Our results underscore the importance of age-targeted interventions and suggest that regional heterogeneity should be considered in public health strategies for disease control. The model offers a transparent, reproducible framework for understanding long-term transmission dynamics and supports evidence-based planning for chickenpox control in India. The practical utility of the model is further validated through a simulation study.

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arXiv2025

A Latent Class Bayesian Model for Multivariate Longitudinal Outcomes with Excess Zeros

Latent class models have been successfully used to handle complex datasets in different disciplines. For longitudinal outcomes, we often get a trajectory of the outcome for each individual, and on that basis, we cluster them for a powerful statistical inference. Latent class models have been used to handle multivariate longitudinal outcomes coming from biology, health sciences, and economics. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent class model for multivariate outcomes with excess zeros. We consider a Tobit model for zero-inflated continuous outcomes such as out-of-pocket medical expenses (OOPME), a two-part model for financial debt, and a ZIP model for counting outcomes with excess zeros. We develop a Bayesian mixture model and employ an adaptive Lasso-type shrinkage method for variable selection. We analyze data from the Health and Retirement Study conducted by the University of Michigan and consider modeling four important outcomes measuring the physical and financial health of the aged individuals. Our analysis detects several latent clusters for different outcomes. Practical usefulness of the proposed model is validated through a simulation study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Modeling of Long-Term Dynamics in Indian Temperature Extremes

Annual maximum temperature data provides crucial insights into the impacts of climate change, especially for regions like India, where temperature variations have significant implications for agriculture, health, and infrastructure. In this study, we propose the Coupled Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model to analyze annual maximum temperature data in India from 1901 to 2017 and compare its performance with the Bayesian Spectral Analysis Regression (BSAR) model. The CTRW model extends the standard framework by coupling temperature changes (jumps) and waiting times, capturing complex dynamics such as memory effects and non-Markovian behavior. The BSAR model, in contrast, combines a linear trend component with a non-linear isotonic function, modeled using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior, to account for smooth and flexible non-linear variations in temperature. By applying both models to the temperature data, we evaluate their ability to capture long-term trends and seasonal fluctuations, offering valuable insights into the effects of climate change on temperature dynamics in India. The comparison highlights the strengths and limitations of each approach in modeling temperature extremes and provides a robust framework for understanding climate variability.

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arXiv2025

Bayesian Hybrid Machine Learning of Gallstone Risk

Gallstone disease is a complex, multifactorial condition with significant global health burdens. Identifying underlying risk factors and their interactions is crucial for early diagnosis, targeted prevention, and effective clinical management. Although logistic regression remains a standard tool for assessing associations between predictors and gallstone status, it often underperforms in high-dimensional settings and may fail to capture intricate relationships among variables. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid machine learning framework that integrates robust variable selection with advanced interaction detection. Specifically, Adaptive LASSO is employed to identify a sparse and interpretable subset of influential features, followed by Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to model nonlinear effects and uncover key interactions. Selected interactions are further characterized by physiological knowledge through differential equation-informed interaction terms, grounding the model in biologically plausible mechanisms. The insights gained from these steps are then integrated into a final logistic regression model within a Bayesian framework, providing a balance between predictive accuracy and clinical interpretability. This proposed framework not only enhances prediction but also yields actionable insights, offering a valuable support tool for medical research and decision-making.

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arXiv2018

Testing Multivariate Scatter Parameter in Elliptical Model based on Forward Search Method

In this article, we establish a test for multivariate scatter parameter in elliptical model, where the location parameter is known, and the scatter parameter is estimated by the multivariate forward search method. The consistency property of the test is also studied here. Inter alia, we investigate the performances of the test for various simulated data, and compare them with those of a classical one.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A Test for Multivariate Location Parameter in Elliptical Model based on Forward Search Method

In this article, we develop a test for multivariate location parameter in elliptical model based on the forward search estimator for a specified scatter matrix. Here, we study the asymptotic power of the test under contiguous alternatives based on the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics under such alternatives. Moreover, the performances of the test have been carried out for different simulated data and real data, and compared the performances with more classical ones.

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