arXiv subjects

Chloe E. Fisher

Publications and source records attributed to Chloe E. Fisher.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Mantle Convection and Nightside Volcanism on Lava World K2-141 b

Ultra-short period lava worlds offer a unique window into the coupled evolution of planetary interior and atmospheres under extreme irradiation. In this study, we investigate the mantle dynamics, nightside volcanism, and volatile outgassing on lava world K2-141 b ($1.54 R_{\oplus}$, $5.31 M_{\oplus}$) using two-dimensional convection models with tracer-based volatile tracking. Our simulations explore a range of interior configurations, including models with and without plastic yielding, basal versus mixed heating, core cooling, and melt intrusion. In models without plastic yielding (i.e. with a strong lithosphere), we find that mantle upwellings form at the substellar and antistellar points, while downwellings form near the day-night terminators at the boundary between the magma ocean and cold, solid nightside. These downwellings facilitate the recycling of crustal material, representing a form of asymmetric, single-lid tectonics. The resulting magma ocean thickness varies from 200 to 300 km depending on the model parameters, corresponding to about 2-3% of the planet's radius. Continuous nightside volcanism produces a basaltic crust and gradually depletes the mantle of volatiles. We find that over a billion years, volcanic eruptions can outgas tens of bars of CO$_{2}$ and H$_{2}$O. We show that even relatively large volcanic eruptions on the nightside produce thermal emission signals of no more than 1 ppm, remaining below the current detectability threshold in thermal phase curves. However, for most models, outgassing rates are increased near the day-night terminators and future studies should assess whether such localised outgassing could lead to atmospheric signatures in transmission spectroscopy.

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arXiv2026

BOWIE-ALIGN: Sub-solar C/O ratio and metallicity atmosphere of the misaligned hot Jupiter HAT-P-30b

We present the JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the misaligned hot Jupiter HAT-P-30b from 2.8--5.2 $μ$m as part of the BOWIE-ALIGN survey, a comparative survey designed to probe the link between planet formation and atmospheric composition in samples of misaligned and aligned hot Jupiters orbiting F-type stars. Through independent data reductions and retrieval analyses, we find evidence for absorption features of H$_2$O and CO$_2$ in the atmosphere of HAT-P-30b. Our retrieved abundances are consistent with equilibrium chemistry, from which we infer a sub-solar C/O ratio (0.16--0.45), and sub-solar and sub-stellar metallicity (0.2--0.8$\times$solar, compared to a stellar metallicity of 1.1--1.6$\times$solar), with muted spectral features. This composition challenges formation models of continuous migration and accretion within a steady disc of stellar metallicity, and could be the result of low C/O ratio gas accretion within the water ice line, low metallicity accretion due to the trapping of volatiles further out in the disc, or the combined accretion of low metallicity gas and carbon-poor solids.

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arXiv2025

JWST NIRSpec finds no clear signs of an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b

Determining the prevalence of atmospheres on terrestrial planets is a core objective in exoplanetary science. While M dwarf systems offer a promising opportunity, conclusive observations of terrestrial atmospheres have remained elusive, with many yielding flat transmission spectra. We observe four transits of the hot terrestrial planet TOI-1685 b using JWST's NIRSpec G395H instrument. Combining this with the transit from the previously-observed phase curve of the planet with the same instrument, we perform a detailed analysis to determine the possibility of an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b. From our retrievals, the Bayesian evidence favours a simple flat line model, indicating no evidence for an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b, in line with results from the phase curve analysis. Our results show that hydrogen-dominated atmospheres can be confidently ruled out. For heavier, secondary atmospheres we find a lower limit on the mean molecular weight of ~10, at a significance of ~5 sigma. Pure CO2, SO2, H2O, and CH4 atmospheres, or a mixed secondary atmosphere (CO+CO2+SO2) could explain the data (Delta lnZ < 3). However, pure CH4 atmospheres may be physically unlikely, and the pure H2O and CO2 cases require a high-altitude cloud, which could also be interpreted as a thin cloud-free atmosphere. We discuss the theoretical possibility for different types of atmosphere on this planet, and consider the effects of atmospheric escape and stellar activity on the system. Though we find that TOI-1685 b is likely a bare rock, this study also highlights the challenges of detecting secondary atmospheres on rocky planets with JWST.

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arXiv2025

Hot Rocks Survey I : A possible shallow eclipse for LHS 1478 b

M dwarf systems offer an opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanetary atmospheres due to their small size and cool temperatures. However, the extreme conditions imposed by these host stars raise question about whether their close-in rocky planets are able to retain any atmosphere at all. The Hot Rocks Survey aims to answer this question by targeting nine different M dwarf rocky planets. Of these, LHS 1478 b orbits an M3-type star, has an equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = 585 K and receives 21 times Earth's instellation. We observe two secondary eclipses using photometric imaging at 15$μ$m using the Mid-Infrared Instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST MIRI) to measure thermal emission from the dayside of the planet. We compare these values to atmospheric models to evaluate potential heat transport and CO$_2$ absorption signatures. We find that a secondary eclipse depth of $138\pm 53$ppm at the expected time for a circular orbit is preferred over a null model at $2.8σ$, a moderate detection, though dynamical models do favour a non-eccentric orbit for this planet. The second observation results in a non-detection due to significantly larger unexplained systematics. Based on the first observation alone, we can reject the null hypothesis of the dark (zero Bond albedo) no atmosphere bare rock model with a confidence level of 3.3$σ$, though for $A_B=0.2$ the significance decreases to $2.1σ$. The tentative secondary eclipse depth is consistent with the majority of atmospheric scenarios we considered, spanning CO$_2$-rich atmospheres with surface pressures from 0.1 to 10 bar. However, we stress that the two observations from our program do not yield consistent results, and more observations are needed to verify our findings. The Hot Rocks Survey serves as a relevant primer for the Director's Discretionary Time (DDT) Rocky Worlds program.

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arXiv2024

BOWIE-ALIGN: A JWST comparative survey of aligned vs misaligned hot Jupiters to test the dependence of atmospheric composition on migration history

A primary objective of exoplanet atmosphere characterisation is to learn about planet formation and evolution, however, this is challenged by degeneracies. To determine whether differences in atmospheric composition can be reliably traced to differences in evolution, we are undertaking a transmission spectroscopy survey with JWST to compare the compositions of a sample of hot Jupiters that have different orbital alignments around F stars above the Kraft break. Under the assumption that aligned planets migrate through the inner disc, while misaligned planets migrate after disc dispersal, the act of migrating through the inner disc should cause a measurable difference in the C/O between aligned and misaligned planets. We expect the amplitude and sign of this difference to depend on the amount of planetesimal accretion and whether silicates accreted from the inner disc release their oxygen. Here, we identify all known exoplanets that are suitable for testing this hypothesis, describe our JWST survey, and use noise simulations and atmospheric retrievals to estimate our survey's sensitivity. With the selected sample of four aligned and four misaligned hot Jupiters, we will be sensitive to the predicted differences in C/O between aligned and misaligned hot Jupiters for a wide range of model scenarios.

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arXiv2023

Intercomparison of Brown Dwarf Model Grids and Atmospheric Retrieval Using Machine Learning

Understanding differences between sub-stellar spectral data and models has proven to be a major challenge, especially for self-consistent model grids that are necessary for a thorough investigation of brown dwarf atmospheres. Using the supervised machine learning method of the random forest, we study the information content of 14 previously published model grids of brown dwarfs (from 1997 to 2021). The random forest method allows us to analyze the predictive power of these model grids, as well as interpret data within the framework of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our curated dataset includes 3 benchmark brown dwarfs (Gl 570D, ε Indi Ba and Bb) as well as a sample of 19 L and T dwarfs; this sample was previously analyzed in Lueber et al. (2022) using traditional Bayesian methods (nested sampling). We find that the effective temperature of a brown dwarf can be robustly predicted independent of the model grid chosen for the interpretation. However, inference of the surface gravity is model-dependent. Specifically, the BT-Settl, Sonora Bobcat and Sonora Cholla model grids tend to predict logg ~3-4 (cgs units) even after data blueward of 1.2 μm have been disregarded to mitigate for our incomplete knowledge of the shapes of alkali lines. Two major, longstanding challenges associated with understanding the influence of clouds in brown dwarf atmospheres remain: our inability to model them from first principles and also to robustly validate these models.

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arXiv2019

Supervised Machine Learning for Intercomparison of Model Grids of Brown Dwarfs: Application to GJ 570D and the Epsilon Indi B Binary System

Self-consistent model grids of brown dwarfs involve complex physics and chemistry, and are often computed using proprietary computer codes, making it challenging to identify the reasons for discrepancies between model and data as well as between the models produced by different research groups. In the current study, we demonstrate a novel method for analyzing brown dwarf spectra, which combines the use of the Sonora, AMES-Cond and HELIOS model grids with the supervised machine learning method of the random forest. Besides performing atmospheric retrieval, the random forest enables information content analysis of the three model grids as a natural outcome of the method, both individually on each grid and by comparing the grids against one another, via computing large suites of mock retrievals. Our analysis reveals that the different choices made in modelling the alkali line shapes hinder the use of the alkali lines as gravity indicators. Nevertheless, the spectrum longward of 1.2 micron encodes enough information on the surface gravity to allow its inference from retrieval. Temperature may be accurately and precisely inferred independent of the choice of model grid, but not the surface gravity. We apply random forest retrieval to three objects: the benchmark T7.5 brown dwarf GJ 570D; and Epsilon Indi Ba (T1.5 brown dwarf) and Bb (T6 brown dwarf), which are part of a binary system and have measured dynamical masses. For GJ 570D, the inferred effective temperature and surface gravity are consistent with previous studies. For Epsilon Indi Ba and Bb, the inferred surface gravities are broadly consistent with the values informed by the dynamical masses.

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