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Chris Cameron

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Cameron.

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One Step Forward and K Steps Back: Better Reasoning with Denoising Recursion Models

Looped transformers scale computational depth without increasing parameter count by repeatedly applying a shared transformer block and can be used for iterative refinement, where each loop rewrites a full fixed-size prediction in parallel. On difficult problems, such as those that require search-like computation, reaching a highly structured solution starting from noise can require long refinement trajectories. Learning such trajectories is challenging when training specifies only the target solution and provides no supervision over the intermediate refinement path. Diffusion models tackle this issue by corrupting data with varying magnitudes of noise and training the model to reverse it in a \textit{single step}. However, this process misaligns training and testing behaviour. We introduce Denoising Recursion Models, a method that similarly corrupts data with noise but trains the model to reverse the corruption over \textit{multiple} recursive steps. This strategy provides a tractable curriculum of intermediate states, while better aligning training with testing and incentivizing non-greedy, forward-looking generation. Through extensive experiments, we show this approach outperforms the Tiny Recursion Model (TRM) on ARC-AGI, where it recently achieved breakthrough performance.

cs.LG

Bayesian non-parametric lumping and splitting of nodes in Network Meta-Analysis under heterogeneity

Network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesizes evidence for multiple treatments, but decisions on node formation can have important statistical implications including bias or inflated uncertainty. Existing data-driven methods often lack flexibility or fail to fully account for node uncertainty and adjust for between-trial heterogeneity simultaneously. We introduce a Bayesian non-parametric framework using a Dirichlet process prior with a regularized horseshoe base measure. This data-driven approach allows treatments to cluster based on their effects while formally propagating uncertainty about the clustering structure itself. We extend this method to incorporate baseline risk meta-regression, enabling clustering even under heterogeneity, and demonstrate implementation using standard MCMC software. We apply the method to case studies in rheumatology and pain and find adjusting for baseline risk heterogeneity can substantially change which treatments are clustered together, highlighting the importance of methods to allow for meta-regression.

stat.ME

UNSAT Solver Synthesis via Monte Carlo Forest Search

We introduce Monte Carlo Forest Search (MCFS), a class of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms for learning policies in {tree MDPs}, for which policy execution involves traversing an exponential-sized tree. Examples of such problems include proving unsatisfiability of a SAT formula; counting the number of solutions of a satisfiable SAT formula; and finding the optimal solution to a mixed-integer program. MCFS algorithms can be seen as extensions of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to cases where, rather than finding a good path (solution) within a tree, the problem is to find a small tree within a forest of candidate trees. We instantiate and evaluate our ideas in an algorithm that we dub Knuth Synthesis, an MCFS algorithm that learns DPLL branching policies for solving the Boolean satisfiability (SAT) problem, with the objective of achieving good average-case performance on a given distribution of unsatisfiable problem instances. Knuth Synthesis is the first RL approach to avoid the prohibitive costs of policy evaluations in an exponentially-sized tree, leveraging two key ideas: first, we estimate tree size by randomly sampling paths and measuring their lengths, drawing on an unbiased approximation due to Knuth (1975); second, we query a strong solver at a user-defined depth rather than learning a policy across the whole tree, to focus our policy search on early decisions that offer the greatest potential for reducing tree size. We matched or exceeded the performance of a strong baseline on three well-known SAT distributions, facing problems that were two orders of magnitude more challenging than those addressed in previous RL studies.

cs.AI

Matching Papers and Reviewers at Large Conferences

Peer-reviewed conferences, the main publication venues in CS, rely critically on matching highly qualified reviewers for each paper. Because of the growing scale of these conferences, the tight timelines on which they operate, and a recent surge in explicitly dishonest behavior, there is now no alternative to performing this matching in an automated way. This paper studies a novel reviewer-paper matching approach that was recently deployed in the 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 2021), and has since been adopted (wholly or partially) by other conferences including ICML 2022, AAAI 2022, and IJCAI 2022. This approach has three main elements: (1) collecting and processing input data to identify problematic matches and generate reviewer-paper scores; (2) formulating and solving an optimization problem to find good reviewer-paper matchings; and (3) a two-phase reviewing process that shifts reviewing resources away from papers likely to be rejected and towards papers closer to the decision boundary. This paper also describes an evaluation of these innovations based on an extensive post-hoc analysis on real data -- including a comparison with the matching algorithm used in AAAI's previous (2020) iteration -- and supplements this with additional numerical experimentation.

cs.AI

The Perils of Learning Before Optimizing

Formulating real-world optimization problems often begins with making predictions from historical data (e.g., an optimizer that aims to recommend fast routes relies upon travel-time predictions). Typically, learning the prediction model used to generate the optimization problem and solving that problem are performed in two separate stages. Recent work has showed how such prediction models can be learned end-to-end by differentiating through the optimization task. Such methods often yield empirical improvements, which are typically attributed to end-to-end making better error tradeoffs than the standard loss function used in a two-stage solution. We refine this explanation and more precisely characterize when end-to-end can improve performance. When prediction targets are stochastic, a two-stage solution must make an a priori choice about which statistics of the target distribution to model-we consider expectations over prediction targets-while an end-to-end solution can make this choice adaptively. We show that the performance gap between a two-stage and end-to-end approach is closely related to the price of correlation concept in stochastic optimization and show the implications of some existing POC results for the predict-then-optimize problem. We then consider a novel and particularly practical setting, where multiple prediction targets are combined to obtain each of the objective function's coefficients. We give explicit constructions where (1) two-stage performs unboundedly worse than end-to-end; and (2) two-stage is optimal. We use simulations to experimentally quantify performance gaps and identify a wide range of real-world applications from the literature whose objective functions rely on multiple prediction targets, suggesting that end-to-end learning could yield significant improvements.

cs.LG

Insights into the inner regions of the FU Orionis disc

Context. We investigate small-amplitude light variations in FU Ori occurring in timescales of days and weeks. Aims. We seek to determine the mechanisms that lead to these light changes. Methods. The visual light curve of FU Ori gathered by the MOST satellite continuously for 55 days in the 2013-2014 winter season and simultaneously obtained ground-based multi-colour data were compared with the results from a disc and star light synthesis model. Results. Hotspots on the star are not responsible for the majority of observed light variations. Instead, we found that the long periodic family of 10.5-11.4 d (presumably) quasi-periods showing light variations up to 0.07 mag may arise owing to the rotational revolution of disc inhomogeneities located between 16-20 solar radii. The same distance is obtained by assuming that these light variations arise because of a purely Keplerian revolution of these inhomogeneities for a stellar mass of 0.7 solar mass. The short-periodic (3-1.38 d) small amplitude (0.01 mag) light variations show a clear sign of period shortening, similar to what was discovered in the first MOST observations of FU Ori. Our data indicate that these short-periodic oscillations may arise because of changing visibility of plasma tongues (not included in our model), revolving in the magnetospheric gap and/or likely related hotspots as well. Conclusions. Results obtained for the long-periodic 10-11 d family of light variations appear to be roughly in line with the colour-period relation, which assumes that longer periods are produced by more external and cooler parts of the disc. Coordinated observations in a broad spectral range are still necessary to fully understand the nature of the short-periodic 1-3 d family of light variations and their period changes.

astro-ph.SR

No Conclusive Evidence for Transits of Proxima b in MOST photometry

The analysis of Proxima Centauri's radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escud\'e et al. (2016) to claim the presence of a low mass planet orbiting the Sun's nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a-priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the MOST space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precise photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false-positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20-40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1-2 sigmas) leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.

astro-ph.EP

MOST Observations of our Nearest Neighbor: Flares on Proxima Centauri

We present a study of white light flares from the active M5.5 dwarf Proxima Centauri using the Canadian microsatellite MOST. Using 37.6 days of monitoring data from 2014 and 2015, we have detected 66 individual flare events, the largest number of white light flares observed to date on Proxima Cen. Flare energies in our sample range from $10^{29}$-$10^{31.5}$ erg. The flare rate is lower than that of other classic flare stars of similar spectral type, such as UV Ceti, which may indicate Proxima Cen had a higher flare rate in its youth. Proxima Cen does have an unusually high flare rate given its slow rotation period, however. Extending the observed power-law occurrence distribution down to $10^{28}$ erg, we show that flares with flux amplitudes of 0.5% occur 63 times per day, while superflares with energies of $10^{33}$ erg occur ~8 times per year. Small flares may therefore pose a great difficulty in searches for transits from the recently announced 1.27 M_earth Proxima b, while frequent large flares could have significant impact on the planetary atmosphere.

astro-ph.SR

A combined spectroscopic and photometric stellar activity study of Epsilon Eridani

We present simultaneous ground-based radial velocity (RV) measurements and space-based photometric measurements of the young and active K dwarf Epsilon Eridani. These measurements provide a data set for exploring methods of identifying and ultimately distinguishing stellar photospheric velocities from Keplerian motion. We compare three methods we have used in exploring this data set: Dalmatian, an MCMC spot modeling code that fits photometric and RV measurements simultaneously; the FF$'$ method, which uses photometric measurements to predict the stellar activity signal in simultaneous RV measurements; and H$\alpha$ analysis. We show that our H$\alpha$ measurements are strongly correlated with photometry from the Microvariability and Oscillations of STars (MOST) instrument, which led to a promising new method based solely on the spectroscopic observations. This new method, which we refer to as the HH$'$ method, uses H$\alpha$ measurements as input into the FF$'$ model. While the Dalmatian spot modeling analysis and the FF$'$ method with MOST space-based photometry are currently more robust, the HH$'$ method only makes use of one of the thousands of stellar lines in the visible spectrum. By leveraging additional spectral activity indicators, we believe the HH$'$ method may prove quite useful in disentangling stellar signals.

astro-ph.SR

Stable and unstable accretion in the classical T Tauri stars IM Lup and RU Lup as observed by MOST

Results of the time variability monitoring of the two classical T Tauri stars, RU Lup and IM Lup, are presented. Three photometric data sets were utilised: (1) simultaneous (same field) MOST satellite observations over four weeks in each of the years 2012 and 2013, (2) multicolour observations at the SAAO in April - May of 2013, (3) archival V-filter ASAS data for nine seasons, 2001 - 2009. They were augmented by an analysis of high-resolution, public-domain VLT-UT2 UVES spectra from the years 2000 to 2012. From the MOST observations, we infer that irregular light variations of RU Lup are caused by stochastic variability of hot spots induced by unstable accretion. In contrast, the MOST light curves of IM Lup are fairly regular and modulated with a period of about 7.19 - 7.58 d, which is in accord with ASAS observations showing a well defined 7.247+/-0.026 d periodicity. We propose that this is the rotational period of IM Lup and is due to the changing visibility of two antipodal hot spots created near the stellar magnetic poles during the stable process of accretion. Re-analysis of RU Lup high-resolution spectra with the Broadening Function approach reveals signs of a large polar cold spot, which is fairly stable over 13 years. As the star rotates, the spot-induced depression of intensity in the Broadening Function profiles changes cyclically with period 3.71058 d, which was previously found by the spectral cross-correlation method.

astro-ph.SR

Spectroscopy, MOST Photometry, and Interferometry of MWC 314: Is it an LBV or an interacting binary?

MWC 314 is a bright candidate luminous blue variable that resides in a fairly close binary system, with an orbital period of 60.753$\pm$0.003 d. We observed MWC 314 with a combination of optical spectroscopy, broad-band ground- and space-based photometry, as well as with long baseline, near-infrared interferometry. We have revised the single-lined spectroscopic orbit and explored the photometric variability. The orbital light curve displays two minima each orbit that can be partially explained in terms of the tidal distortion of the primary that occurs around the time of periastron. The emission lines in the system are often double-peaked and stationary in their kinematics, indicative of a circumbinary disc. We find that the stellar wind or circumbinary disc is partially resolved in the K\prime-band with the longest baselines of the CHARA Array. From this analysis, we provide a simple, qualitative model in an attempt to explain the observations. From the assumption of Roche Lobe overflow and tidal synchronisation at periastron, we estimate the component masses to be M1 $\approx 5$ M$_\odot$ and M2$\approx 15$ M$_\odot$, which indicates a mass of the LBV that is extremely low. In addition to the orbital modulation, we discovered two pulsational modes with the MOST satellite. These modes are easily supported by a low-mass hydrogen-poor star, but cannot be easily supported by a star with the parameters of an LBV. The combination of these results provides evidence that the primary star was likely never a normal LBV, but rather is the product of binary interactions. As such, this system presents opportunities for studying mass-transfer and binary evolution with many observational techniques.

astro-ph.SR

A Coordinated X-ray and Optical Campaign of the Nearest Massive Eclipsing Binary, delta Orionis Aa: III. Analysis of Optical Photometric MOST and Spectroscopic (Ground Based) Variations

We report on both high-precision photometry from the MOST space telescope and ground-based spectroscopy of the triple system delta Ori A consisting of a binary O9.5II+early-B (Aa1 and Aa2) with P = 5.7d, and a more distant tertiary (O9 IV P > 400 yrs). This data was collected in concert with X-ray spectroscopy from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Thanks to continuous coverage for 3 weeks, the MOST light curve reveals clear eclipses between Aa1 and Aa2 for the first time in non-phased data. From the spectroscopy we have a well constrained radial velocity curve of Aa1. While we are unable to recover radial velocity variations of the secondary star, we are able to constrain several fundamental parameters of this system and determine an approximate mass of the primary using apsidal motion. We also detected second order modulations at 12 separate frequencies with spacings indicative of tidally influenced oscillations. These spacings have never been seen in a massive binary, making this system one of only a handful of such binaries which show evidence for tidally induced pulsations.

astro-ph.SR

Characterizing K2 Planet Discoveries: A super-Earth transiting the bright K-dwarf HIP 116454

We report the first planet discovery from the two-wheeled Kepler (K2) mission: HIP 116454 b. The host star HIP 116454 is a bright (V = 10.1, K = 8.0) K1-dwarf with high proper motion, and a parallax-based distance of 55.2 +/- 5.4 pc. Based on high-resolution optical spectroscopy, we find that the host star is metal-poor with [Fe/H] = -.16 +/- .18, and has a radius R = 0.716 +/- .0024 R_sun and mass M = .775 +/- .027 Msun. The star was observed by the Kepler spacecraft during its Two-Wheeled Concept Engineering Test in February 2014. During the 9 days of observations, K2 observed a single transit event. Using a new K2 photometric analysis technique we are able to correct small telescope drifts and recover the observed transit at high confidence, corresponding to a planetary radius of Rp = 2.53 +/- 0.18 Rearth. Radial velocity observations with the HARPS-N spectrograph reveal a 11.82 +/- 1.33 Mearth planet in a 9.1 day orbit, consistent with the transit depth, duration, and ephemeris. Follow-up photometric measurements from the MOST satellite confirm the transit observed in the K2 photometry and provide a refined ephemeris, making HIP 116454 b amenable for future follow-up observations of this latest addition to the growing population of transiting super-Earths around nearby, bright stars.

astro-ph.EP

MOST detects transits of HD 97658b, a warm, likely volatile-rich super-Earth

Through photometric monitoring of the extended transit window of HD 97658b with the MOST space telescope, we have found that this exoplanet transits with an ephemeris consistent with that predicted from radial velocity measurements. The mid-transit times are $5.6\sigma$ earlier than those of the unverified transit-like signals reported in 2011, and we find no connection between the two sets of events. The transit depth together with our determined stellar radius ($R_\star = 0.703^{+0.039}_{-0.034} R_\odot$) indicates a 2.34$^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ $R_{\oplus}$ super-Earth. When combined with the radial velocity determined mass of 7.86 $\pm 0.73$ $M_{\oplus}$, our radius measure allows us to derive a planet density of 3.44$^{+0.91}_{-0.82}$ g cm$^{-3}$. Models suggest that a planet with our measured density has a rocky core that is enveloped in an atmosphere composed of lighter elements. The star of the HD 97658 system is the second brightest known to host a transiting super-Earth, facilitating follow-up studies of this not easily daunted, warm and likely volatile-rich exoplanet.

astro-ph.EP

MOST photometry of the RRd Lyrae variable AQ Leo: Two radial modes, 32 combination frequencies, and beyond

Highly precise and nearly uninterrupted optical photometry of the RR Lyrae star AQ Leo was obtained with the MOST (Microvariability & Oscillations of STars) satellite over 34.4 days in February-March 2005. AQ Leo was the first known double-mode RR Lyrae pulsator (RRd star). Three decades after its discovery, MOST observations have revealed that AQ Leo oscillates with at least 42 frequencies, of which 32 are linear combinations (up to the sixth order) of the radial fundamental mode and its first overtone. Evidence for period changes of these modes is found in the data. The other intrinsic frequencies may represent an additional nonradial pulsation mode and its harmonics (plus linear combinations) which warrant theoretical modeling. The unprecedented number of frequencies detected with amplitudes down to millimag precision also presents an opportunity to test nonlinear theories of mode growth and saturation in RR Lyrae pulsators.

astro-ph

Looking for Giant Earths in the HD 209458 System: A Search for Transits in MOST Space-based Photometry

We have made a comprehensive transit search for exoplanets down to about 2 Earth radii in the HD 209458 system, based on nearly uninterrupted broadband optical photometry obtained with the MOST (Microvariability and Oscillations of Stars) satellite, spanning 14 days in 2004 and 44 days in 2005. We have searched these data for limb-darkened transits at periods other than that of the known giant planet, from about 0.5 days to 2 weeks. Monte Carlo statistical tests of the data with synthetic transits inserted allow us to rule out additional close-in exoplanets with sizes ranging from about 0.20-0.36 RJ (Jupiter radii), or 2.2-4.0 RE (Earth radii) on orbits whose planes are near that of HD 209458b. These null results constrain theories that invoke lower mass planets in orbits similar to HD 209458b to explain its anomalously large radius, and those that predict "hot Earths" due to the inward migration of HD 209458b.

astro-ph