arXiv subjects

Chris Kilsby

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Kilsby.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Robust blue-green urban flood risk management optimised with a genetic algorithm for multiple rainstorm return periods

Flood risk managers seek to optimise Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) designs to maximise return on investment. Current systems often use optimisation algorithms and detailed flood models to maximise benefit-cost ratios for single rainstorm return periods. However, these schemes may lack robustness in mitigating flood risks across different storm magnitudes. For example, a BGI scheme optimised for a 100-year return period may differ from one optimised for a 10-year return period. This study introduces a novel methodology incorporating five return periods (T = 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 years) into a multi-objective BGI optimisation framework. The framework combines a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) with a fully distributed hydrodynamic model to optimise the spatial placement and combined size of BGI features. For the first time, direct damage cost (DDC) and expected annual damage (EAD), calculated for various building types, are used as risk objective functions, transforming a many-objective problem into a multi-objective one. Performance metrics such as Median Risk Difference (MedRD), Maximum Risk Difference (MaxRD), and Area Under Pareto Front (AUPF) reveal that a 100-year optimised BGI design performs poorly when evaluated for other return periods, particularly shorter ones. In contrast, a BGI design optimised using composite return periods enhances performance metrics across all return periods, with the greatest improvements observed in MedRD (22%) and AUPF (73%) for the 20-year return period, and MaxRD (23%) for the 50-year return period. Furthermore, climate uplift stress testing confirms the robustness of the proposed design to future rainfall extremes. This study advocates a paradigm shift in flood risk management, moving from single maximum to multiple rainstorm return period-based designs to enhance resilience and adaptability to future climate extremes.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2024

A cost-benefit source-receptor framework for implementation of Blue-Green flood risk management

As floods are a major and growing source of risk in urban areas, there is a necessity to improve flood risk management frameworks and civil protection through planning interventions that modify surface flow pathways and introduce storage. Despite the complexity of densely urbanised areas, modern flood models can represent urban features and flow characteristics to help researchers, local authorities, and insurance companies to develop and improve efficient flood risk frameworks to achieve resilience in cities. A cost-benefit driven source-receptor flood risk framework is developed in this study to identify (1) locations contributing to surface flooding (sources), (2) buildings and locations at high flood risk (receptors), (3) the cost-benefit nexus between the source and the receptor, and finally (4) ways to mitigate flooding at the receptor by adding Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) in critical locations. The analysis is based on five steps to identify the source and the receptor in a study area based on the flood exposure of buildings, damages arising from flooding and available green spaces with the best potential to add sustainable and resilient solutions to reduce flooding. The framework was developed using the detailed hydrodynamic model CityCAT in a case study of the city centre of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. The novelty of this analysis is that firstly, multiple storm magnitudes (i.e. small and large floods) are used combined with a method to locate the areas and the buildings at flood risk and a prioritized set of best places to add interventions upstream and downstream. Secondly, planning decisions are informed by considering the benefit from reduced damages to properties and the cost to construct resilient BGI options rather than a restricted hydraulic analysis considering only flood depths and storages in isolation from real-world economics.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

Multi-objective Optimisation Framework for Blue-Green Infrastructure Placement Using Detailed Flood Model

This study aims to find a cost-effective Blue-Green Infrastructure placement scheme by developing an improved approach called the Cost Optimization Framework for Implementing blue-Green infrastructure (CONFIGURE). The optimisation framework integrates a detailed hydrodynamic flood simulation model with a multi-objective optimisation algorithm (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II). The use of a high-resolution flood simulation model ensures the explicit representation of BGI and other land use features to simulate flow pathways and surface flood risk accurately, while the optimisation algorithm guarantees achieving the best cost-benefit trade-offs for given BGI options. The current study uses the advanced CityCAT hydrodynamic flood model to evaluate the efficiency of the optimisation framework and the impact of location and size of permeable interventions on the optimisation process and subsequent cost-benefit trade-offs. This is achieved by dividing permeable surface areas into intervention zones of varying size and quantity. Furthermore, rainstorm events with 100-year and 30-year return periods are analysed to identify any common optimal solutions for different rainfall intensities. Depending on the number of intervention locations, the automated framework reliably achieves optimal BGI implementation solutions in a fraction of the time required to find the best solutions by trialling all possible options. Designing and optimising interventions with smaller sizes but many permeable zones saves a good fraction of investment. However, such a design scheme requires more computational time to find optimal options. Furthermore, the optimal spatial configuration of BGI varies with different rainstorm severities, suggesting a need for careful selection of the rainstorm return period.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

A Local Multi-Layer Approach to Modelling Interactions between Shallow Water Flows and Obstructions

The capability to accurately predict flood flows via numerical simulations is a key component of contemporary flood risk management practice. However, modern flood models lack the capacity to accurately model flow interactions with linear features, or hydraulic structures like bridges and gates, which act as partial barriers to flow. Presented within this paper is a new Riemann solver which represents a novel approach to modelling fluid-structure interactions within two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The solution procedure models obstacles as existing at the interface between neighbouring cells and uses a combination of internal boundary conditions, different forms of the conservation laws and vertical discretisation of the neighbouring cells to resolve numerical fluxes across a partially obstructed interface. The predictive capacity of the solver has been validated through comparisons with experimental data collected from experiments conducted in a state-of-the-art hydraulic flume. Since the solution procedure is local, only applying to the cells within the immediate vicinity of a structure, the method is designed to be compatible with existing two-dimensional hydrodynamic models which use a finite volume scheme to solve the shallow water equations.

physics.flu-dyn↗