arXiv subjects

Chris Marone

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Marone.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

SeisLM: a Foundation Model for Seismic Waveforms

We introduce the Seismic Language Model (SeisLM), a foundational model designed to analyze seismic waveforms -- signals generated by Earth's vibrations such as the ones originating from earthquakes. SeisLM is pretrained on a large collection of open-source seismic datasets using a self-supervised contrastive loss, akin to BERT in language modeling. This approach allows the model to learn general seismic waveform patterns from unlabeled data without being tied to specific downstream tasks. When fine-tuned, SeisLM excels in seismological tasks like event detection, phase-picking, onset time regression, and foreshock-aftershock classification. The code has been made publicly available on https://github.com/liutianlin0121/seisLM.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Energy dissipation in earthquakes

Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature and quantity of the energy dissipation involved in the rupture process. Here we present the challenges associated with defining and measuring the energy dissipation in laboratory and natural earthquakes across many scales. We discuss the importance and implications of distinguishing between energy dissipation that occurs close to and far behind the rupture tip and we identify open scientific questions related to a consistent modeling framework for earthquake physics that extends beyond classical Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

High-Rate Phase Association with Travel Time Neural Fields

Earthquake science and seismology rely on the ability to associate seismic waves with their originating earthquakes. Earthquake detection algorithms based on deep learning have progressed rapidly and now routinely detect microearthquakes with unprecedented clarity, providing information about fault dynamics on increasingly finer spatiotemporal scales. However, this densification of detections can overwhelm existing techniques for phase association which rely on fixed wave speed models and associate events one by one. These methods fail when the event rates become high or where the 4D complexity of elastic wave speeds cannot be ignored. Here, we introduce HARPA, a deep learning solution to this problem. HARPA is a high-rate association framework which incorporates wave physics by leveraging deep generative models and travel time neural fields. Instead of associating events one by one, it lifts arrival sequences to probability distributions and compares them using an optimal transport metric. The generative travel time neural fields are used to estimate the wave speed simultaneously with association. HARPA outperforms state-of-the-art association methods for both real seismic data and complex synthetic models and paves the way for improved understanding of seismicity while establishing a new seismic data analysis paradigm.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Deep learning for laboratory earthquake prediction and autoregressive forecasting of fault zone stress

Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory earthquakes. In the lab, frictional stick-slip events provide an analog for earthquakes and the seismic cycle. Labquakes are ideal targets for machine learning (ML) because they can be produced in long sequences under controlled conditions. Recent works show that ML can predict several aspects of labquakes using fault zone acoustic emissions. Here, we generalize these results and explore deep learning (DL) methods for labquake prediction and autoregressive (AR) forecasting. DL improves existing ML methods of labquake prediction. AR methods allow forecasting at future horizons via iterative predictions. We demonstrate that DL models based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolution Neural Networks predict labquakes under several conditions, and that fault zone stress can be predicted with fidelity, confirming that acoustic energy is a fingerprint of fault zone stress. We predict also time to start of failure (TTsF) and time to the end of Failure (TTeF) for labquakes. Interestingly, TTeF is successfully predicted in all seismic cycles, while the TTsF prediction varies with the amount of preseismic fault creep. We report AR methods to forecast the evolution of fault stress using three sequence modeling frameworks: LSTM, Temporal Convolution Network and Transformer Network. AR forecasting is distinct from existing predictive models, which predict only a target variable at a specific time. The results for forecasting beyond a single seismic cycle are limited but encouraging. Our ML/DL models outperform the state-of-the-art and our autoregressive model represents a novel framework that could enhance current methods of earthquake forecasting.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stickslip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2021

Attention network forecasts time-to-failure in laboratory shear experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults monitor earthquakes and augment current early warning systems.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2018

Earthquake catalog-based machine learning identification of laboratory fault states and the effects of magnitude of completeness

Machine learning regression can predict macroscopic fault properties such as shear stress, friction, and time to failure using continuous records of fault zone acoustic emissions. Here we show that a similar approach is successful using event catalogs derived from the continuous data. Our methods are applicable to catalogs of arbitrary scale and magnitude of completeness. We investigate how machine learning regression from an event catalog of laboratory earthquakes performs as a function of the catalog magnitude of completeness. We find that strong model performance requires a sufficiently low magnitude of completeness, and below this magnitude of completeness model performance saturates.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2018

Estimating the Physical State of a Laboratory Slow Slipping Fault from Seismic Signals

Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs). Slow slip has been reproduced in laboratory and simulation studies, however the fundamental physics of these phenomena and their relationship to dynamic earthquake rupture remains poorly understood. Here we show that, in a laboratory setting, continuous seismic waves are imprinted with fundamental signatures of the fault's physical state. Using machine learning on continuous seismic waves, we can infer several bulk characteristics of the fault (friction, shear displacement, gouge thickness), at any time during the slow slip cycle. This analysis also allows us to infer many properties of the future behavior of the fault, including the time remaining before the next slow slip event. Our work suggests that by applying machine learning approaches to continuous seismic data, new insight into the physics of slow slip could be obtained in Earth.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2018

Estimating Fault Friction from Seismic Signals in the Laboratory

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any time, from the continuous seismic signal. In a classic laboratory experiment of repeating earthquakes, we find that the seismic signal follows a specific pattern with respect to fault friction, allowing us to determine the fault's position within its failure cycle. Using machine learning, we show that instantaneous statistical characteristics of the seismic signal are a fingerprint of the fault zone shear stress and frictional state. Further analysis of this fingerprint leads to a simple equation of state quantitatively relating the seismic signal power and the friction on the fault. These results show that fault zone frictional characteristics and the state of stress in the surroundings of the fault can be inferred from seismic waves, at least in the laboratory.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2015

Acoustically-induced slip in sheared granular layers: application to dynamic earthquake triggering

A fundamental mystery in earthquake physics is ``how can an earthquake be triggered by distant seismic sources?'' Here, we use discrete element method simulations of a granular layer, during stick-slip, that is subject to transient vibrational excitation to gain further insight into the physics of dynamic earthquake triggering. Using Coulomb friction law for grains interaction, we observe delayed triggering of slip in the granular gouge. We find that at a critical vibrational amplitude (strain) there is an abrupt transition from negligible time-advanced slip (clock advance) to full clock advance, {\it i.e.}, transient vibration and triggered slip are simultaneous. The critical strain is order of $10^{-6}$, similar to observations in the laboratory and in Earth. The transition is related to frictional weakening of the granular layer due to a dramatic decrease in coordination number and the weakening of the contact force network. Associated with this frictional weakening is a pronounced decrease in the elastic modulus of the layer. The study has important implications for mechanisms of triggered earthquakes and induced seismic events and points out the underlying processes in response of the fault gouge to dynamic transient stresses.

physics.geo-ph↗