arXiv subjects

Chris Smith

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Smith.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Population-scale Ancestral Recombination Graphs with tskit 1.0

Ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) are an increasingly important component of population and statistical genetics. The tskit library has become key infrastructure for the field, providing an expressive and general representation of ARGs together with a suite of efficient fundamental operations. In this note, we announce tskit version 1.0, describe its underlying rationale, and document its stability guarantees. These guarantees provide a foundation for durable computational artefacts and support long-term reproducibility of code and analyses.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

Arguing conformance with data protection principles

We show how conformance arguments can be used by organisations to substantiate claims of conformance to data protection principles. Use of conformance arguments can improve the rigour and consistency with which these organisations, supervisory authorities, certification bodies and data subjects can assess the truth of these claims.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

TOI-4495: A Pair of Aligned, Near-Resonant Sub-Neptunes that Likely Experienced Overstable Migration

We report the discovery of a sub-Neptune and a Neptune-like planet ($R_b = 2.48^{+0.14}_{-0.10}\,R_\oplus$, $R_c = 4.03^{+0.23}_{-0.15}\,R_\oplus$) orbiting the F-type star TOI-4495. The planets have orbital periods of 2.567 days and 5.185 days, lying close to a 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR). Our photodynamical analysis of the TESS light curves constrains the planetary masses to $M_b = 7.7 \pm 1.4\,M_\oplus$ and $M_c = 23.2 \pm 4.7\,M_\oplus$. The measured masses and radii indicate the presence of volatile-rich gaseous envelopes on both planets. The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect and the Doppler shadow of TOI-4495 c reveal a well-aligned orbit with a projected stellar obliquity of $\lambda = -2.3^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\mathrm{deg}$. Combined with the low mutual inclination constrained by the photodynamical analysis ($\Delta I < 8.7\,\mathrm{deg}$), the planetary orbits are likely coplanar and aligned with the host star's spin axis. We show that the planets are near, but not in, the 2:1 MMR, with a circulating resonant angle. We also find substantial free eccentricity for the inner planet, TOI-4495 b ($e_b = 0.078^{+0.020}_{-0.013}$). Given the observed proximity to the 2:1 resonance and the more massive outer planet, TOI-4495 b and c are particularly susceptible to resonant overstability, which can convert resonantly excited eccentricity into free eccentricity. However, additional mechanisms (e.g., planetesimal scattering) may be required to further excite the eccentricity by $\sim 4\%$. To prevent tidal damping from reducing the eccentricity below the observed level over the star's lifetime (1.9 Gyr), the reduced tidal quality factor of TOI-4495 b must be $Q' \gtrsim 10^5$, consistent with the presence of a thick envelope on the planet.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

A Test of Substellar Evolutionary Models with High-Precision Ages from Asteroseismology and Gyrochronology for the Benchmark System HR 7672AB

We present high-precision measurements for HR~7672AB, composed of a Sun-like (G0V) star and an L~dwarf companion. Three nights of precise (70 cm/s) radial velocity (RV) asteroseismology with the Keck Planet Finder clearly detect 5-minute oscillations from the primary HR~7672A, and modeling of the frequency spectrum yields an asteroseismic age of $1.87\pm0.65$~Gyr. We also determine a gyrochronological age of $2.58\pm0.47$~Gyr, and we combine these two results for a final age of $2.26\pm0.40$~Gyr. In addition, we obtained new RVs for HR~7672A and new astrometry for the companion HR~7672B. From a joint orbit fit, we measured a dynamical mass of $1.111\pm0.017$~$\text{M}_\odot$ for HR~7672A and $75.39\pm0.67$~$\text{M}_{\text{Jup}}$ for HR~7672B. This places the companion near the stellar/substellar boundary and thus particularly sensitive to differences in model predictions. The joint precision in host star age (18\% uncertainty) and companion mass (0.9\% uncertainty) makes HR~7672AB an exceptional substellar benchmark. Combined with the companion's luminosity, we use these measurements to test predictions from six brown dwarf cooling models. The best agreement occurs with the Chabrier et al. (2023) models, which incorporate a new equation of state, resulting in predictions that agree within $<$0.3$\sigma$ with all the observations. The other 5 sets of models agree at the 1--3$\sigma$ level depending on the particular test, and some models struggle to predict a sufficient low luminosity for HR~7672B at any age given its dynamical mass. We also detected a weak seismic signal in near-simultaneous TESS photometry of HR~7672A, with the resulting RV-to-photometry oscillation amplitude ratio consistent with solar values.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

The KPF SURFS-UP Survey I: Transmission Spectroscopy of WASP-76 b

We introduce the KPF SURFS-UP (Spectroscopy of the Upper-atmospheres and ReFractory Species in Ultra-hot Planets) Survey, a high-resolution survey to investigate the atmospheric composition and dynamics of a sample of ultra-hot Jupiters with the Keck Planet Finder (KPF). Due to the unique design of KPF, we developed a publicly available pipeline for KPF that performs blaze removal, continuum normalization, order stitching, science spectra combination, telluric correction, and atmospheric detection via cross-correlation. As a first demonstration, we applied this pipeline to a transit of WASP-76 b and achieved some of the highest signal-to-noise detections of refractory species in WASP-76 b to date (e.g., Fe I is detected at a SNR of 14.5). We confirm previous observations of an asymmetry in Fe I absorption, but find no measurable ingress-egress asymmetry in Na I and Ca II. Together, these results suggest variations within different layers of the atmosphere of WASP-76 b: neutral metals such as Fe I trace deeper regions with stronger asymmetries, while Na I and Ca II probe regions higher in the atmosphere where the ingress-egress asymmetries are weaker. Unlike some other ultra-hot Jupiters, our results are qualitatively consistent with GCM predictions of decreasing velocity asymmetry with altitude and do not require a high-altitude super-rotating jet that has been invoked for other planets (e.g., WASP-121 b). These results suggest that atmospheric circulation patterns in ultra-hot Jupiters may be more diverse than previously thought, highlighting the need for broader surveys to study how atmospheric dynamics depend on planetary and stellar properties.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

X-MethaneWet: A Cross-scale Global Wetland Methane Emission Benchmark Dataset for Advancing Science Discovery with AI

Methane (CH$_4$) is the second most powerful greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and plays a crucial role in climate change due to its high global warming potential. Accurately modeling CH$_4$ fluxes across the globe and at fine temporal scales is essential for understanding its spatial and temporal variability and developing effective mitigation strategies. In this work, we introduce the first-of-its-kind cross-scale global wetland methane benchmark dataset (X-MethaneWet), which synthesizes physics-based model simulation data from TEM-MDM and the real-world observation data from FLUXNET-CH$_4$. This dataset can offer opportunities for improving global wetland CH$_4$ modeling and science discovery with new AI algorithms. To set up AI model baselines for methane flux prediction, we evaluate the performance of various sequential deep learning models on X-MethaneWet. Furthermore, we explore four different transfer learning techniques to leverage simulated data from TEM-MDM to improve the generalization of deep learning models on real-world FLUXNET-CH$_4$ observations. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches, highlighting their potential for advancing methane emission modeling and identifying new opportunities for developing more accurate and scalable AI-driven climate models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Stellar Obliquity of the Ultra-Short-Period Planet System HD 93963

We report an observation of the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect of the transiting planet HD 93963 Ac, a mini-Neptune planet orbiting a G0-type star with an orbital period of $P_{\rm{c}} = 3.65\,\mathrm{d}$, accompanied by an inner super-Earth planet with $P_{\rm{b}} = 1.04\,\mathrm{d}$. We observed a full transit of planet c on 2024 May 3rd UT with Keck/KPF. The observed RM effect has an amplitude of $\sim 1\,\mathrm{m\,s}^{-1}$ and implies a sky-projected obliquity of $\lambda = 14^{+17}_{-19}$ degrees for HD 93963 Ac. Our dynamical analysis suggests that the two inner planets are likely well aligned with the stellar spin, to within a few degrees, thus allowing both to transit. Along with WASP-47, 55 Cnc, and HD 3167, HD 93963 is the fourth planetary system with an ultra-short-period planet and obliquity measurement(s) of any planet(s) in the system. HD 93963, WASP-47, and 55 Cnc favor largely coplanar orbital architectures, whereas HD 3167 has been reported to have a large mutual inclination ($\sim$100$^\circ$) between its transiting planets b and c. In this configuration, the probability that both planets transit is low. Moreover, one planet would quickly evolve to be non-transiting due to nodal precession. Future missions such as ESO/PLATO should detect the resulting transit duration variations. We encourage additional obliquity measurements of the HD 3167 system to better constrain its orbital architecture.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

K-dwarf Radius Inflation and a 10-Gyr Spin-down Clock Unveiled through Asteroseismology of HD 219134 from the Keck Planet Finder

We present the first asteroseismic analysis of the K3\,V planet host HD~219134, based on four consecutive nights of radial velocities collected with the Keck Planet Finder. We applied Gold deconvolution to the power spectrum to disentangle modes from sidelobes in the spectral window, and extracted 25 mode frequencies with spherical degrees $0\leq\ell\leq3$. We derive the fundamental properties using five different evolutionary-modeling pipelines and report a mass of 0.763 $\pm$ 0.020 (stat) $\pm$ 0.007 (sys) M$_\odot$, a radius of 0.748 $\pm$ 0.007 (stat) $\pm$ 0.002 (sys) R$_\odot$, and an age of 10.151 $\pm$ 1.520 (stat) $\pm$ 0.810 (sys) Gyr. Compared to the interferometric radius 0.783 $\pm$ 0.005~R$_\odot$, the asteroseismic radius is 4\% smaller at the 4-$\sigma$ level -- a discrepancy not easily explained by known interferometric systematics, modeling assumptions on atmospheric boundary conditions and mixing lengths, magnetic fields, or tidal heating. HD~219134 is the first main-sequence star cooler than 5000~K with an asteroseismic age estimate and will serve as a critical calibration point for stellar spin-down relations. We show that existing calibrated prescriptions for angular momentum loss, incorporating weakened magnetic braking with asteroseismically constrained stellar parameters, accurately reproduce the observed rotation period. Additionally, we revised the masses and radii of the super-Earths in the system, which support their having Earth-like compositions. Finally, we confirm that the oscillation amplitude in radial velocity scales as $(L/M)^{1.5}$ in K dwarfs, in contrast to the $(L/M)^{0.7}$ relation observed in G dwarfs. These findings provide significant insights into the structure and angular momentum loss of K-type stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The Compositions of Rocky Planets in Close-in Orbits Tend to be Earth-Like

Hundreds of exoplanets between 1-1.8 times the size of the Earth have been discovered on close in orbits. However, these planets show such a diversity in densities that some appear to be made entirely of iron, while others appear to host gaseous envelopes. To test this diversity in composition, we update the masses of 5 rocky exoplanets (HD 93963 A b, Kepler-10 b, Kepler-100 b, Kepler-407 b, and TOI-1444 b) and present the confirmation of a new planet (TOI-1011) using 187 high precision RVs from Gemini/MAROON-X and Keck/KPF. Our updated planet masses suggest compositions closer to that of the Earth than previous literature values for all planets in our sample. In particular, we report that two previously identified ``super-Mercuries'' (Kepler-100 b and HD 93963 A b) have lower masses that suggest less iron-rich compositions. We then compare the ratio of iron to rock-building species to the abundance ratios of those elements in their host stars. These updated planet compositions do not suggest a steep relationship between planet and host star compositions, contradictory to previous results, and suggest that planets and host stars have similar abundance ratios.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

An Earth-sized Planet on the Verge of Tidal Disruption

TOI-6255~b (GJ 4256) is an Earth-sized planet (1.079$\pm0.065$ $R_\oplus$) with an orbital period of only 5.7 hours. With the newly commissioned Keck Planet Finder (KPF) and CARMENES spectrographs, we determined the planet's mass to be 1.44$\pm$0.14 $M_{\oplus}$. The planet is just outside the Roche limit, with $P_{\rm orb}/P_{\rm Roche}$ = 1.13 $\pm0.10$. The strong tidal force likely deforms the planet into a triaxial ellipsoid with a long axis that is $\sim$10\% longer than the short axis. Assuming a reduced stellar tidal quality factor $Q_\star^\prime \approx10^7$, we predict that tidal orbital decay will cause TOI-6255 to reach the Roche limit in roughly 400 Myr. Such tidal disruptions may produce the possible signatures of planet engulfment that have been on stars with anomalously high refractory elemental abundances compared to its conatal binary companion. TOI-6255 b is also a favorable target for searching for star-planet magnetic interactions, which might cause interior melting and hasten orbital decay. TOI-6255 b is a top target (Emission Spectroscopy Metric of about 24) for phase curve observations with the James Webb Space Telescope.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

KPF Confirms a Polar Orbit for KELT-18 b

We present the first spectroscopic transit results from the newly commissioned Keck Planet Finder on the Keck-I telescope at W. M. Keck Observatory. We observed a transit of KELT-18 b, an inflated ultra-hot Jupiter orbiting a hot star ($T_\text{eff} = 6670$ K) with a binary stellar companion. By modeling the perturbation to the measured cross correlation functions using the Reloaded Rossiter-McLaughlin technique, we derived a sky projected obliquity of $\lambda = -94.8 \pm 0.7$ deg ($\psi = 93.8_{-1.8}^{+1.6}$ deg for isotropic $i_\star$). The data are consistent with an extreme stellar differential rotation ($\alpha = 0.9$), though a more likely explanation is moderate center-to-limb variations of the emergent stellar spectrum. We see additional evidence for the latter from line widths increasing towards the limb. Using loose constraints on the stellar rotation period from observed variability in the available TESS photometry, we were able to constrain the stellar inclination and thus the true 3D stellar obliquity to $\psi = 91.7_{-1.8}^{+2.2}$ deg. KELT-18 b could have obtained its polar orbit through high-eccentricity migration initiated by Kozai-Lidov oscillations induced by the binary stellar companion KELT-18 B, as the two likely have a large mutual inclination as evidenced by Gaia astrometry. KELT-18 b adds another data point to the growing population of close-in polar planets, particularly around hot stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Asteroseismology of the Nearby K-Dwarf $\sigma$ Draconis using the Keck Planet Finder and TESS

Asteroseismology of dwarf stars cooler than the Sun is very challenging due to the low amplitudes and rapid timescales of oscillations. Here, we present the asteroseismic detection of solar-like oscillations at 4-minute timescales ($\nu_{\mathrm{max}}\sim4300\mu$Hz) in the nearby K-dwarf $\sigma$ Draconis using extreme precision Doppler velocity observations from the Keck Planet Finder and 20-second cadence photometry from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. The star is the coolest dwarf star to date with both velocity and luminosity observations of solar-like oscillations, having amplitudes of $5.9\pm0.8\,$cm$\,\text{s}^{-1}$ and $0.8\pm0.2$ ppm, respectively. These measured values are in excellent agreement with established luminosity-velocity amplitude relations for oscillations and provide further evidence that mode amplitudes for stars with $T_{\mathrm{eff}}<\,5500\,$K diminish in scale following a $(L/M)^{1.5}$ relation. By modeling the star's oscillation frequencies from photometric data, we measure an asteroseismic age of $4.5\pm0.9\,\rm{(ran)} \pm 1.2\,\rm{(sys)}$ Gyr. The observations demonstrate the capability of next-generation spectrographs and precise space-based photometry to extend observational asteroseismology to nearby cool dwarfs, which are benchmarks for stellar astrophysics and prime targets for directly imaging planets using future space-based telescopes.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The OATMEAL Survey. I. Low Stellar Obliquity in the Transiting Brown Dwarf System GPX-1

We introduce the OATMEAL survey, an effort to measure the obliquities of stars with transiting brown dwarf companions. We observed a transit of the close-in ($P_{\rm orb} = 1.74 \,$ days) brown dwarf GPX-1 b using the Keck Planet Finder (KPF) spectrograph to measure the sky-projected angle between its orbital axis and the spin axis of its early F-type host star ($\lambda$). We measured $\lambda = 6.88 \pm 1.72 ^\circ$ (with additional unquantified systematic uncertainty), suggesting an orbit that is prograde and well aligned with the stellar equator. Hot Jupiters around early F stars are frequently found to have highly misaligned orbits, with polar and retrograde orbits being commonplace. It has been theorized that these misalignments stem from dynamical interactions, such as von Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov cycles, and are retained over long timescales due to weak tidal dissipation in stars with radiative envelopes. By comparing GPX-1 to similar systems under the frameworks of different tidal evolution theories, we argued that the rate of tidal dissipation is too slow to have re-aligned the system. This suggests that GPX-1 may have arrived at its close-in orbit via coplanar high-eccentricity migration or migration through an aligned protoplanetary disk. Our result for GPX-1 is one of few measurements of the obliquity of a star with a transiting brown dwarf. By enlarging the number of such measurements and comparing them with hot Jupiter systems, we will more clearly discern the differences between the mechanisms that dictate the formation and evolution of both classes of objects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

A mixed finite-element, finite-volume, semi-implicit discretisation for atmospheric dynamics: Spherical geometry

The reformulation of the Met Office's dynamical core for weather and climate prediction previously described by the authors is extended to spherical domains using a cubed-sphere mesh. This paper updates the semi-implicit mixed finite-element formulation to be suitable for spherical domains. In particular the finite-volume transport scheme is extended to take account of non-uniform, non-orthogonal meshes and uses an advective-then-flux formulation so that increment from the transport scheme is linear in the divergence. The resulting model is then applied to a standard set of dry dynamical core tests and compared to the existing semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamical core currently used in the Met Office's operational model.

math.NA↗

arXiv2018

The Neutral Hydrogen Properties of Galaxies in Gas-rich Groups

We present an analysis of the integrated neutral hydrogen (HI) properties for 27 galaxies within nine low mass, gas-rich, late-type dominated groups which we denote "Choirs". We find that majority of the central Choir galaxies have average HI content: they have a normal gas-mass fraction with respect to isolated galaxies of the same stellar mass. In contrast, we find more satellite galaxies with a lower gas-mass fraction than isolated galaxies of the same stellar mass. A likely reason for the lower gas content in these galaxies is tidal stripping. Both the specific star formation rate and the star formation efficiency of the central group galaxies are similar to galaxies in isolation. The Choir satellite galaxies have similar specific star formation rate as galaxies in isolation, therefore satellites that exhibit a higher star formation efficiency simply owe it to their lower gas-mass fractions. We find that the most HI massive galaxies have the largest HI discs and fall neatly onto the HI size-mass relation, while outliers are galaxies that are experiencing interactions. We find that high specific angular momentum could be a reason for galaxies to retain the large fraction of HI gas in their discs. This shows that for the Choir groups with no evidence of interactions, as well as those with traces of minor mergers, the internal galaxy properties dominate over the effects of residing in a group. The probed galaxy properties strengthen evidence that the Choir groups represent the early stages of group assembly.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

Lock-step simulation is child's play

Implementing multi-player networked games by broadcasting the player's input and letting each client calculate the game state - a scheme known as lock-step simulation - is an established technique. However, ensuring that every client in this scheme obtains a consistent state is infamously hard and in general requires great discipline from the game programmer. The thesis of this report is that in the realm of functional programming - in particular with Haskell's purity and static pointers - this hard problem becomes almost trivially easy. We support this thesis by implementing lock-step simulation under very adverse conditions. We extended the educational programming environment CodeWorld, which is used to teach math and programming to middle school students, with the ability to create and run interactive, networked multi-user games. Despite providing a very abstract and high-level interface, and without requiring

cs.PL↗

arXiv2017

Results from a set of three-dimensional numerical experiments of a hot Jupiter atmosphere

We present highlights from a large set of simulations of a hot Jupiter atmosphere, nominally based on HD 209458b, aimed at exploring both the evolution of the deep atmosphere, and the acceleration of the zonal flow or jet. We find the occurrence of a super-rotating equatorial jet is robust to changes in various parameters, and over long timescales, even in the absence of strong inner or bottom boundary drag. This jet is diminished in one simulation only, where we strongly force the deep atmosphere equator-to-pole temperature gradient over long timescales. Finally, although the eddy momentum fluxes in our atmosphere show similarities with the proposed mechanism for accelerating jets on tidally-locked planets, the picture appears more complex. We present tentative evidence for a jet driven by a combination of eddy momentum transport and mean flow.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2016

The UK Met Office GCM with a sophisticated radiation scheme applied to the hot Jupiter HD 209458b

To study the complexity of hot Jupiter atmospheres revealed by observations of increasing quality, we have adapted the UK Met Office global circulation model (GCM), the Unified Model (UM), to these exoplanets. The UM solves the full 3D Navier-Stokes equations with a height-varying gravity, avoiding the simplifications used in most GCMs currently applied to exoplanets. In this work we present the coupling of the UM dynamical core to an accurate radiation scheme based on the two-stream approximation and correlated-k method with state-of-the-art opacities from ExoMol. Our first application of this model is devoted to the extensively studied hot Jupiter HD 209458b. We have derived synthetic emission spectra and phase curves, and compare them to both previous models also based on state-of-the-art radiative transfer, and to observations. We find a reasonable a agreement between observations and both our day side emission and hot spot offset, however, our night side emission is too large. Overall our results are qualitatively similar to those found by Showman et al. (2009) with the SPARC/MITgcm, however, we note several quantitative differences: Our simulations show significant variation in the position of the hottest part of the atmosphere with pressure, as expected from simple timescale arguments, and in contrast to the "vertical coherency" found by Showman et al. (2009). We also see significant quantitative differences in calculated synthetic observations. Our comparisons strengthen the need for detailed intercomparisons of dynamical cores, radiation schemes and post-processing tools to understand these differences. This effort is necessary in order to make robust conclusions about these atmospheres based on GCM results.

astro-ph.EP↗