arXiv subjects

Christel Baier

Publications and source records attributed to Christel Baier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Towards Actionable Strategy Certificates in Stochastic Parity Games

We propose a new approach for synthesizing large sets of winning strategies in stochastic parity games (2.5-player games) with quantitative objectives. Instead of computing a single, fully specified winning strategy, we introduce Actionable Strategy Certificates (ASCerts) as a local and permissive representation of a large class of system player winning strategies. To this end, we extend known certificates for stochastic invariants to the setting of games. Our certificates prove that synthesized strategies remain within a safe region of the game with probability at least $\lambda \in [0,1]$. As such, the certificates enhance the trustworthiness of synthesized strategies. The crux of our approach is to reinterpret and leverage the certificates as concise, local, and permissive representation of (possibly infinitely many) strategies. By carefully combining our certificates for stochastic invariants with strategy templates for almost-sure winning, we obtain a novel local representation of quantitatively winning strategies in stochastic parity games. This enables efficient synthesis, adaptation, and runtime strategy extraction, making ASCerts well suited for logical control in uncertain and adversarial environments. We provide a proof-of-concept implementation and demonstrate the potential of applying ASCerts in runtime adaptation on a case study.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Model Checking via Families of Deterministic and Unambiguous Finite Automata

Families of deterministic finite automata (FDFA) have been introduced as a concise automaton model that characterizes $\omega$-regular languages by processing their ultimately periodic words. FDFA are known to enjoy many good properties and can be exponentially more succinct than deterministic $\omega$-automata with Rabin, Streett or parity acceptance. This paper addresses two main questions: (1) Are FDFA suitable for probabilistic model checking purposes? and (2) Is it possible to obtain an even more compact representation of $\omega$-regular languages by allowing the components of an FDFA to be unambiguous instead of deterministic? Question (1) is answered in the affirmative by presenting the first polynomial-time algorithm for computing the probability that a discrete-time Markov chain satisfies an $\omega$-regular property represented as an FDFA. Question (2) is motivated by the fact that unambiguous finite automata may require exponentially fewer states than deterministic ones. This paper introduces a model of families of unambiguous finite automata (FUFA) that captures the class of $\omega$-regular languages. FUFA can be exponentially more succinct than both FDFA and unambiguous B\"uchi automata, and there is a single-exponential translation from linear temporal logic (LTL) to FUFA. This stands in contrast to a double-exponential lower bound for the translation from LTL to FDFA. Moreover, the polynomial-time probabilistic model checking algorithm for discrete-time Markov chains against FDFA-specifications is extended to the case where the property is represented by an FUFA with a deterministic leading automaton.

cs.FL↗

arXiv2026

Concurrent Permissive Strategy Templates

Two-player games on finite graphs provide a rigorous foundation for modeling the strategic interaction between reactive systems and their environment. While concurrent game semantics naturally capture the synchronous interactions characteristic of many cyber-physical systems (CPS), their adoption in CPS design remains limited. Building on the concept of permissive strategy templates (PeSTels) for turn-based games, we introduce concurrent (permissive) strategy templates (ConSTels) -- a novel representation for sets of randomized winning strategies in concurrent games with Safety, B\"uchi, and Co-B\"uchi objectives. ConSTels compactly encode infinite families of strategies, thereby supporting both offline and online adaptation. Offline, we exploit compositionality to enable incremental synthesis: combining ConSTels for simpler objectives into non-conflicting templates for more complex combined objectives. Online, we demonstrate how ConSTels facilitate runtime adaptation, adjusting action probabilities in response to observed opponent behavior to optimize performance while preserving correctness. We implemented ConSTel synthesis and adaptation in a prototype tool and experimentally show its potential.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Temporal Properties of Conditional Independence in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are compact graphical representations used to model probabilistic systems where interdependent random variables and their distributions evolve over time. In this paper, we study the verification of the evolution of conditional-independence (CI) propositions against temporal logic specifications. To this end, we consider two specification formalisms over CI propositions: linear temporal logic (LTL), and non-deterministic B\"uchi automata (NBAs). This problem has two variants. Stochastic CI properties take the given concrete probability distributions into account, while structural CI properties are viewed purely in terms of the graphical structure of the DBN. We show that deciding if a stochastic CI proposition eventually holds is at least as hard as the Skolem problem for linear recurrence sequences, a long-standing open problem in number theory. On the other hand, we show that verifying the evolution of structural CI propositions against LTL and NBA specifications is in PSPACE, and is NP- and coNP-hard. We also identify natural restrictions on the graphical structure of DBNs that make the verification of structural CI properties tractable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Certificates and Witnesses for Multi-objective {\omega}-regular Queries in Markov Decision Processes

Multi-objective probabilistic model checking is a powerful technique for verifying stochastic systems against multiple (potentially conflicting) properties. To enhance the trustworthiness and explainability of model checking tools, we present independently checkable certificates and witnesses for multi-objective {\omega}-regular queries in Markov decision processes. For the certification, we extend and improve existing certificates for the decomposition of maximal end components and reachability properties. We then derive mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) for finding minimal witnessing subsystems. For the special case of Markov chains and LTL properties, we use unambiguous B\"uchi automata to find witnesses, resulting in an algorithm that requires single-exponential space. Existing approaches based on deterministic automata require doubly-exponential space in the worst case. Finally, we consider the practical computation of our certificates and witnesses and provide an implementation of the developed techniques, along with an experimental evaluation, demonstrating the efficacy of our techniques.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Backward Responsibility in Transition Systems Beyond Safety

As the complexity of software systems rises, methods for explaining their behaviour are becoming ever-more important. When a system fails, it is critical to determine which of its components are responsible for this failure. Within the verification community, one approach uses graph games and Shapley values to ascribe a responsibility value to every state of a transition system. As this is done with respect to a specific failure, it is called backward responsibility. This paper provides tight complexity bounds for the computation of backward responsibility values for reachability, B\"uchi and parity objectives. For B\"uchi objectives, a polynomial algorithm is given to determine the set of responsible states, i.e. states with positive responsibility value. To analyse systems that are too large for standard methods, the paper presents a novel refinement algorithm that iteratively finds the set of responsible states. Several heuristics are proposed to guide the refinement algorithm. Its utility is demonstrated with a tool that implements refinement in addition to several other responsibility computation techniques.

cs.FL↗

arXiv2025

Approximate Probabilistic Bisimulation for Continuous-Time Markov Chains

We introduce $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation, a novel type of approximate probabilistic bisimulation for continuous-time Markov chains. In contrast to related notions, $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation allows the use of different tolerances for the transition probabilities ($\varepsilon$, additive) and total exit rates ($\delta$, multiplicative) of states. Fundamental properties of the notion, as well as bounds on the absolute difference of time- and reward-bounded reachability probabilities for $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-bisimilar states, are established.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Multiplicative Rewards in Markovian Models

This paper studies the expected value of multiplicative rewards, where rewards obtained in each step are multiplied (instead of the usual addition), in Markov chains (MCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). One of the key differences to additive rewards is that the expected value may diverge to infinity not only due to recurrent, but also due to transient states. For MCs, computing the value is shown to be possible in polynomial time given an oracle for the comparison of succinctly represented integers (CSRI), which is only known to be solvable in polynomial time subject to number-theoretic conjectures. Interestingly, distinguishing whether the value is infinite or 0 is at least as hard as CSRI, while determining if it is one of these two can be done in polynomial time. In MDPs, the optimal value can be computed in polynomial space. Further refined complexity results and results on the complexity of optimal schedulers are presented. The techniques developed for MDPs additionally allow to solve the multiplicative variant of the stochastic shortest path problem. Finally, for MCs and MDPs where an absorbing state is reached almost surely, all considered problems are solvable in polynomial time.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Model Checking Linear Temporal Logic with Standpoint Modalities

Standpoint linear temporal logic ($SLTL$) is a recently introduced extension of classical linear temporal logic ($LTL$) with standpoint modalities. Intuitively, these modalities allow to express that, from agent $a$'s standpoint, it is conceivable that a given formula holds. Besides the standard interpretation of the standpoint modalities we introduce four new semantics, which differ in the information an agent can extract from the history. We provide a general model checking algorithm applicable to $SLTL$ under any of the five semantics. Furthermore we analyze the computational complexity of the corresponding model checking problems, obtaining PSPACE-completeness in three cases, which stands in contrast to the known EXPSPACE-completeness of the $SLTL$ satisfiability problem.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Formal Quality Measures for Predictors in Markov Decision Processes

In adaptive systems, predictors are used to anticipate changes in the systems state or behavior that may require system adaption, e.g., changing its configuration or adjusting resource allocation. Therefore, the quality of predictors is crucial for the overall reliability and performance of the system under control. This paper studies predictors in systems exhibiting probabilistic and non-deterministic behavior modelled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). Main contributions are the introduction of quantitative notions that measure the effectiveness of predictors in terms of their average capability to predict the occurrence of failures or other undesired system behaviors. The average is taken over all memoryless policies. We study two classes of such notions. One class is inspired by concepts that have been introduced in statistical analysis to explain the impact of features on the decisions of binary classifiers (such as precision, recall, f-score). Second, we study a measure that borrows ideas from recent work on probability-raising causality in MDPs and determines the quality of a predictor by the fraction of memoryless policies under which (the set of states in) the predictor is a probability-raising cause for the considered failure scenario.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Responsibility in Actor-Based Systems

The enormous growth of the complexity of modern computer systems leads to an increasing demand for techniques that support the comprehensibility of systems. This has motivated the very active research field of formal methods that enhance the understanding of why systems behave the way they do. One important line of research within the verification community relies on formal notions that measure the degree of responsibility of different actors. In this paper, we first provide a uniform presentation of recent work on responsibility notions based on Shapley values for reactive systems modeled by transition systems and considering safety properties. The paper then discusses how to use these formal responsibility notions and corresponding algorithms for three different types of actor sets: the module-based notion serves to reason about the impact of system components on the satisfaction or violation of a safety property. Responsibility values for value-based actor sets and action-based actors allow for the identification of program instructions and control points that have the most influence on a specification violation. Beyond the theoretical considerations, this paper reports on experimental results that provide initial insights into applicability and scalability.

cs.FL↗

arXiv2024

A Spectrum of Approximate Probabilistic Bisimulations

This paper studies various notions of approximate probabilistic bisimulation on labeled Markov chains (LMCs). We introduce approximate versions of weak and branching bisimulation, as well as a notion of $\varepsilon$-perturbed bisimulation that relates LMCs that can be made (exactly) probabilistically bisimilar by small perturbations of their transition probabilities. We explore how the notions interrelate and establish their connections to other well-known notions like $\varepsilon$-bisimulation.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Risk-averse optimization of total rewards in Markovian models using deviation measures

This paper addresses objectives tailored to the risk-averse optimization of accumulated rewards in Markov decision processes (MDPs). The studied objectives require maximizing the expected value of the accumulated rewards minus a penalty factor times a deviation measure of the resulting distribution of rewards. Using the variance in this penalty mechanism leads to the variance-penalized expectation (VPE) for which it is known that optimal schedulers have to minimize future expected rewards when a high amount of rewards has been accumulated. This behavior is undesirable as risk-averse behavior should keep the probability of particularly low outcomes low, but not discourage the accumulation of additional rewards on already good executions. The paper investigates the semi-variance, which only takes outcomes below the expected value into account, the mean absolute deviation (MAD), and the semi-MAD as alternative deviation measures. Furthermore, a penalty mechanism that penalizes outcomes below a fixed threshold is studied. For all of these objectives, the properties of optimal schedulers are specified and in particular the question whether these objectives overcome the problem observed for the VPE is answered. Further, the resulting algorithmic problems on MDPs and Markov chains are investigated.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Model Checking Markov Chains as Distribution Transformers

The conventional perspective on Markov chains considers decision problems concerning the probabilities of temporal properties being satisfied by traces of visited states. However, consider the following query made of a stochastic system modelling the weather: given the conditions today, will there be a day with less than 50\% chance of rain? The conventional perspective is ill-equipped to decide such problems regarding the evolution of the initial distribution. The alternate perspective we consider views Markov chains as distribution transformers: the focus is on the sequence of distributions on states at each step, where the evolution is driven by the underlying stochastic transition matrix. More precisely, given an initial distribution vector $μ$, a stochastic update transition matrix $M$, we ask whether the ensuing sequence of distributions $(μ, Mμ, M^2μ, \dots)$ satisfies a given temporal property. This is a special case of the model-checking problem for linear dynamical systems, which is not known to be decidable in full generality. The goal of this article is to delineate the classes of instances for which this problem can be solved, under the assumption that the dynamics is governed by stochastic matrices.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Certificates and Witnesses for Multi-Objective Queries in Markov Decision Processes

Certifying verification algorithms not only return whether a given property holds or not, but also provide an accompanying independently checkable certificate and a corresponding witness. The certificate can be used to easily validate the correctness of the result and the witness provides useful diagnostic information, e.g. for debugging purposes. Thus, certificates and witnesses substantially increase the trustworthiness and understandability of the verification process. In this work, we consider certificates and witnesses for multi-objective reachability-invariant and mean-payoff queries in Markov decision processes, that is conjunctions or disjunctions either of reachability and invariant or mean-payoff predicates, both universally and existentially quantified. Thereby, we generalize previous works on certificates and witnesses for single reachability and invariant constraints. To this end, we turn known linear programming techniques into certifying algorithms and show that witnesses in the form of schedulers and subsystems can be obtained. As a proof-of-concept, we report on implementations of certifying verification algorithms and experimental results.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Linear dynamical systems with continuous weight functions

In discrete-time linear dynamical systems (LDSs), a linear map is repeatedly applied to an initial vector yielding a sequence of vectors called the orbit of the system. A weight function assigning weights to the points in the orbit can be used to model quantitative aspects, such as resource consumption, of a system modelled by an LDS. This paper addresses the problems of how to compute the mean payoff, the total accumulated weight, and the discounted accumulated weight of the orbit under continuous weight functions as well as polynomial weight functions as a special case. Additionally, weight functions that are definable in an o-minimal extension of the theory of the reals with exponentiation, which can be shown to be piecewise continuous, are considered. In particular, good ergodic properties of o-minimal weight functions, instrumental to the computation of the mean payoff, are established. Besides general LDSs, the special cases of stochastic LDSs and LDSs with bounded orbits are addressed. Finally, the problem of deciding whether an energy constraint is satisfied by the weighted orbit, i.e., whether the accumulated weight never drops below a given bound, is analysed.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Positivity-hardness results on Markov decision processes

This paper investigates a series of optimization problems for one-counter Markov decision processes (MDPs) and integer-weighted MDPs with finite state space. Specifically, it considers problems addressing termination probabilities and expected termination times for one-counter MDPs, as well as satisfaction probabilities of energy objectives, conditional and partial expectations, satisfaction probabilities of constraints on the total accumulated weight, the computation of quantiles for the accumulated weight, and the conditional value-at-risk for accumulated weights for integer-weighted MDPs. Although algorithmic results are available for some special instances, the decidability status of the decision versions of these problems is unknown in general. The paper demonstrates that these optimization problems are inherently mathematically difficult by providing polynomial-time reductions from the Positivity problem for linear recurrence sequences. This problem is a well-known number-theoretic problem whose decidability status has been open for decades and it is known that decidability of the Positivity problem would have far-reaching consequences in analytic number theory. So, the reductions presented in the paper show that an algorithmic solution to any of the investigated problems is not possible without a major breakthrough in analytic number theory. The reductions rely on the construction of MDP-gadgets that encode the initial values and linear recurrence relations of linear recurrence sequences. These gadgets can flexibly be adjusted to prove the various Positivity-hardness results.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2024

Backward Responsibility in Transition Systems Using General Power Indices

To improve reliability and the understanding of AI systems, there is increasing interest in the use of formal methods, e.g. model checking. Model checking tools produce a counterexample when a model does not satisfy a property. Understanding these counterexamples is critical for efficient debugging, as it allows the developer to focus on the parts of the program that caused the issue. To this end, we present a new technique that ascribes a responsibility value to each state in a transition system that does not satisfy a given safety property. The value is higher if the non-deterministic choices in a state have more power to change the outcome, given the behaviour observed in the counterexample. For this, we employ a concept from cooperative game theory -- namely general power indices, such as the Shapley value -- to compute the responsibility of the states. We present an optimistic and pessimistic version of responsibility that differ in how they treat the states that do not lie on the counterexample. We give a characterisation of optimistic responsibility that leads to an efficient algorithm for it and show computational hardness of the pessimistic version. We also present a tool to compute responsibility and show how a stochastic algorithm can be used to approximate responsibility in larger models. These methods can be deployed in the design phase, at runtime and at inspection time to gain insights on causal relations within the behavior of AI systems.

cs.FL↗