arXiv subjects

Christian Deutscher

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Deutscher.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Predicting Qualification Thresholds in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League under the New League Phase Format

For the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) introduced an incomplete round-robin format in the Champions League and Europa League, replacing the traditional group stage with a single league table of all 36 teams. Under this structure, the top eight teams advance directly to the Round of 16, while teams ranked 9th-24th qualify for a play-off round. Simulation-based analyses, such as those by commercial data analyst Opta, provided indicative point thresholds for qualification but reveal deviations when compared with actual outcomes in the first season. To address these discrepancies, we employ a bivariate Dixon--Coles model that accounts for the lower frequency of draws observed in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, particularly in the Champions League, potentially driven by reduced incentives for teams to play for a draw. We proxy team strengths by Elo ratings and fit the model to different settings. This enables us to simulate match outcomes and to estimate qualification thresholds for both direct advancement and play-off participation. Our results provide scientific guidance for clubs and managers, supporting strategic decision-making under uncertainty regarding their progression prospects in the new format of UEFA club competitions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics

Match-fixing undermines the integrity of sport by eroding public trust and threatening the financial sustainability of clubs and leagues. The global expansion of sports betting markets has created new incentives and opportunities for manipulation, calling for rigorous, data-driven monitoring tools. Football, which accounts for the largest share of global betting turnover, remains particularly exposed: integrity reports continue to flag several suspicious matches, with past scandals in Italy and Turkey underlining the problem's persistence. This study uses high-frequency live-betting data from the Italian Serie B (2018/19-2020/21) to explore statistical approaches for detecting abnormal betting behaviour. A state-space modelling framework is employed to describe standard betting market dynamics and to predict expected betting volumes conditional on match characteristics. Deviations from these expectations can then be analysed using outlier detection techniques to identify potentially suspicious periods. The results demonstrate how statistical modelling can contribute to the early identification of irregular betting patterns, thereby supporting integrity assurance in live sports betting markets.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Measuring football fever through wearable technology: A case study on the German cup final

Football is the world's most popular sport, evoking strong physiological and emotional responses among its fans. Yet, the specific dynamics of fan attachment to matches have received little attention in the literature. In this paper, we quantify these dynamics through a unique case study from professional football: the 2025 cup final of the German Football Association (DFB) between first-division club VfB Stuttgart and third-division club Arminia Bielefeld. We collected high-resolution smartwatch data, including heart rate and stress level, from 229 Arminia Bielefeld fans over approximately 12 weeks, complemented by survey responses on club attachment, match attendance, and personal characteristics from a subset of 37 participants. By combining physiological data with survey information, we analyse variations in emotional engagement across individuals and contexts, as well as physiological reactions to key match events. This approach provides rare, data-driven insights into the football fever that captivates fans during high-stakes competitions. Furthermore, we compare the vital parameters recorded on the day of the match with baseline levels on non-matchdays throughout the entire observation period. Our findings reveal pronounced physiological responses among fans, beginning hours before the match and peaking at kick-off.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Do Betting Markets Sense a Goal Coming? Evidence from the German Bundesliga

We use the fertile ground of betting markets to study the anticipation of major news in financial markets. While there is a considerable body of literature on the accuracy and efficiency of betting markets after important in-match events, there are no studies dealing with the anticipation of such events. This paper tracks bookmaker odds and betting stakes to provide insights into the movement of both prior to goals. Utilising high-resolution (1 Hz) data from a leading European bookmaker for a full season of the top German football league, we analyse whether market participants anticipate major news. In particular, we consider the case of the first goal scored within a match, with its strong impact on the match outcome. Using regression models and state-space models (SSMs) accounting for an underlying market activity level, we investigate whether the bookmaker adjusts odds and bettors tend to place higher stakes on the scoring team right before the first goal is scored. Our results indicate that neither side of the market anticipates goals by significantly adjusting their behaviour.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Gambling on Momentum

Sports betting markets are proven real-world laboratories to test theories of asset pricing anomalies and risky behaviour. Using a high-frequency dataset provided directly by a major bookmaker, containing the odds and amounts staked throughout German Bundesliga football matches, we test for evidence of momentum in the betting and pricing behaviour after equalising goals. We find that bettors see value in teams that have the apparent momentum, staking about 40% more on them than teams that just conceded an equaliser. Still, there is no evidence that such perceived momentum matters on average for match outcomes or is associated with the bookmaker offering favourable odds. We also confirm that betting on the apparent momentum would lead to substantial losses for bettors.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

The reaction to news in live betting

Sports betting markets have grown very rapidly recently, with the total European gambling market worth 98.6 billion euro in 2019. Considering a high-resolution (1 Hz) data set provided by a large European bookmaker, we investigate the effect of news on the dynamics of live betting. In particular, we consider stakes placed in a live betting market during football matches. Accounting for the general market activity level within a state-space modelling framework, we focus on the market's response to events such as goals (i.e. major news), but also to the general situation within a match such as the uncertainty about the outcome. Our results indicate that markets might overreact to recent news, confirming cognitive biases known from psychology and behavioural economics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break

The outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 led to a shutdown of economic activities in Europe. This included the sports sector, since public gatherings were prohibited. The German Bundesliga was among the first sport leagues realising a restart without spectators. Several recent studies suggest that the home advantage of teams was eroded for the remaining matches. Our paper analyses the reaction by bookmakers to the disappearance of such home advantage. We show that bookmakers had problems to adjust the betting odds in accordance to the disappeared home advantage, opening opportunities for profitable betting strategies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Very Highly Skilled Individuals Do Not Choke Under Pressure: Evidence from Professional Darts

Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces, but also in other areas of society such as disaster management or professional sports. For simple effort tasks, an increase in the pressure experienced by an individual, e.g. due to incentive schemes in a workplace, will increase the effort put into the task and hence in most cases also the performance. For the more complex and usually harder to capture case of skill tasks, there exists a substantial body of literature that fairly consistently reports a choking phenomenon under pressure. However, we argue that many of the corresponding studies have crucial limitations, such as neglected interaction effects or insufficient numbers of observations to allow within-individual analysis. Here, we investigate performance under pressure in professional darts as a near-ideal setting with no direct interaction between players and a high number of observations per subject. We analyze almost one year of tournament data covering 23,192 dart throws, hence a data set that is very much larger than those used in most previous studies. Contrary to what would be expected given the evidence in favor of a choking phenomenon, we find strong evidence for an overall improved performance under pressure, for nearly all 83 players in the sample. These results could have important consequences for our understanding of how highly skilled individuals deal with high-pressure situations.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

The Impact of Age on Nationality Bias: Evidence from Ski Jumping

This empirical research explores the impact of age on nationality bias. World Cup competition data suggest that judges of professional ski jumping competitions prefer jumpers of their own nationality and exhibit this preference by rewarding them with better marks. Furthermore, the current study reveals that this nationality bias is diminished among younger judges, in accordance with the reported lower levels of national discrimination among younger generations. Globalisation and its effect in reducing class-based thinking may explain this reduced bias in judgment of others.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

The Hot Hand in Professional Darts

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost one year of tournament data, corresponding to 167,492 dart throws in total, we use state-space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying ability, and we use autoregressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. We find a strong but short-lived serial dependence in the latent state process, thus providing evidence for the existence of the hot hand.

stat.AP↗