arXiv subjects

Christian Donner

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Donner.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Plasma State Monitoring and Disruption Characterization using Multimodal VAEs

When a plasma disrupts in a tokamak, significant heat and electromagnetic loads are deposited onto the surrounding device components. These forces scale with plasma current and magnetic field strength, making disruptions one of the key challenges for future devices. Unfortunately, disruptions are not fully understood, with many different underlying causes that are difficult to anticipate. Data-driven models have shown success in predicting them, but they only provide limited interpretability. On the other hand, large-scale statistical analyses have been a great asset to understanding disruptive patterns. In this paper, we leverage data-driven methods to find an interpretable representation of the plasma state for disruption characterization. Specifically, we use a latent variable model to represent diagnostic measurements as a low-dimensional, latent representation. We build upon the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) framework, and extend it for (1) continuous projections of plasma trajectories; (2) a multimodal structure to separate operating regimes; and (3) separation with respect to disruptive regimes. Subsequently, we can identify continuous indicators for the disruption rate and the disruptivity based on statistical properties of measurement data. The proposed method is demonstrated using a dataset of approximately 1600 TCV discharges, selecting for flat-top disruptions or regular terminations. We evaluate the method with respect to (1) the identified disruption risk and its correlation with other plasma properties; (2) the ability to distinguish different types of disruptions; and (3) downstream analyses. For the latter, we conduct a demonstrative study on identifying parameters connected to disruptions using counterfactual-like analysis. Overall, the method can adequately identify distinct operating regimes characterized by varying proximity to disruptions in an interpretable manner.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

A projected nonlinear state-space model for forecasting time series signals

Learning and forecasting stochastic time series is essential in various scientific fields. However, despite the proposals of nonlinear filters and deep-learning methods, it remains challenging to capture nonlinear dynamics from a few noisy samples and predict future trajectories with uncertainty estimates while maintaining computational efficiency. Here, we propose a fast algorithm to learn and forecast nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data. A key feature of the proposed model is kernel functions applied to projected lines, enabling fast and efficient capture of nonlinearities in the latent dynamics. Through empirical case studies and benchmarking, the model demonstrates its effectiveness in learning and forecasting complex nonlinear dynamics, offering a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Generative inverse design of multimodal resonant structures for locally resonant metamaterials

In the development of locally resonant metamaterials, the physical resonator design is often omitted and replaced by an idealized mass-spring system. This paper presents a novel approach for designing multimodal resonant structures, which give rise to multi-bandgap metamaterials with predefined band gaps. Our method uses a conditional variational autoencoder to identify nontrivial patterns between design variables of complex-shaped resonators and their modal effective parameters. After training, the cost of generating designs satisfying arbitrary criteria - frequency and mass of multiple modes - becomes negligible. An example of a resonator family with six geometric variables and two targeted modes is further elaborated. We find that the autoencoder performs well even when trained with a limited dataset, resulting from a few hundred numerical modal analyses. The method generates several designs that very closely approximate the desired modal characteristics. The accuracy of the best designs, proposed by the auto-encoder, is confirmed in tests of 3D-printed resonator prototypes. Further experiments demonstrate the close agreement between the measured and desired dispersion relation of a sample metamaterial beam.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2020

GP-ETAS: Semiparametric Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model

The spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we aim at a full Bayesian treatment of model inference, allowing naturally to incorporate prior knowledge and uncertainty quantification of the resulting estimates. Therefore, we introduce a highly flexible, non-parametric representation for the spatially varying ETAS background intensity through a Gaussian process (GP) prior. Combined with classical triggering functions this results in a new model formulation, namely the GP-ETAS model. We enable tractable and efficient Gibbs sampling by deriving an augmented form of the GP-ETAS inference problem. This novel sampling approach allows us to assess the posterior model variables conditioned on observed earthquake catalogues, i.e., the spatial background intensity and the parameters of the triggering function. Empirical results on two synthetic data sets indicate that GP-ETAS outperforms standard models and thus demonstrate the predictive power for observed earthquake catalogues including uncertainty quantification for the estimated parameters. Finally, a case study for the l'Aquila region, Italy, with the devastating event on 6 April 2009, is presented.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Multi-Class Gaussian Process Classification Made Conjugate: Efficient Inference via Data Augmentation

We propose a new scalable multi-class Gaussian process classification approach building on a novel modified softmax likelihood function. The new likelihood has two benefits: it leads to well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and allows for an efficient latent variable augmentation. The augmented model has the advantage that it is conditionally conjugate leading to a fast variational inference method via block coordinate ascent updates. Previous approaches suffered from a trade-off between uncertainty calibration and speed. Our experiments show that our method leads to well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and competitive predictive performance while being up to two orders faster than the state of the art.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Efficient Bayesian Inference of Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Processes

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the model using a latent marked Poisson process and Pólya--Gamma random variables we obtain a representation of the likelihood which is conjugate to the GP prior. We estimate the posterior using a variational free--form mean field optimisation together with the framework of sparse GPs. Furthermore, as alternative approximation we suggest a sparse Laplace's method for the posterior, for which an efficient expectation--maximisation algorithm is derived to find the posterior's mode. Both algorithms compare well against exact inference obtained by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler and standard variational Gauss approach solving the same model, while being one order of magnitude faster. Furthermore, the performance and speed of our method is competitive with that of another recently proposed Poisson process model based on a quadratic link function, while not being limited to GPs with squared exponential kernels and rectangular domains.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Efficient Bayesian Inference for a Gaussian Process Density Model

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent Pólya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's Gaussian process prior. The augmented posterior allows for efficient inference by Gibbs sampling and an approximate variational mean field approach. For the latter we utilise sparse GP approximations to tackle the infinite dimensionality of the problem. The performance of both algorithms and comparisons with other density estimators are demonstrated on artificial and real datasets with up to several thousand data points.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Inverse Ising problem in continuous time: A latent variable approach

We consider the inverse Ising problem, i.e. the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form, which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are: (1) Poisson variables to linearise an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) Pólya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Approximate Inference for Time-varying Interactions and Macroscopic Dynamics of Neural Populations

The models in statistical physics such as an Ising model offer a convenient way to characterize stationary activity of neural populations. Such stationary activity of neurons may be expected for recordings from in vitro slices or anesthetized animals. However, modeling activity of cortical circuitries of awake animals has been more challenging because both spike-rates and interactions can change according to sensory stimulation, behavior, or an internal state of the brain. Previous approaches modeling the dynamics of neural interactions suffer from computational cost; therefore, its application was limited to only a dozen neurons. Here by introducing multiple analytic approximation methods to a state-space model of neural population activity, we make it possible to estimate dynamic pairwise interactions of up to 60 neurons. More specifically, we applied the pseudolikelihood approximation to the state-space model, and combined it with the Bethe or TAP mean-field approximation to make the sequential Bayesian estimation of the model parameters possible. The large-scale analysis allows us to investigate dynamics of macroscopic properties of neural circuitries underlying stimulus processing and behavior. We show that the model accurately estimates dynamics of network properties such as sparseness, entropy, and heat capacity by simulated data, and demonstrate utilities of these measures by analyzing activity of monkey V4 neurons as well as a simulated balanced network of spiking neurons.

q-bio.NC↗