arXiv subjects

Christian Furrer

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Furrer.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Disability insurance with collective health claims: A mean-field approach

The classic semi-Markov disability model is expanded with individual and collective health claims to improve its explanatory and predictive power -- in particular in the context of group experience rating. The inclusion of collective health claims leads to a computationally challenging many-body problem. By adopting a mean-field approach, this many-body problem can be approximated by a non-linear one-body problem, which in turn leads to a transparent pricing method for disability coverages based on a lower-dimensional system of non-linear forward integro-differential equations. In a practice-oriented simulation study, the mean-field approximation clearly stands its ground in comparison to na\"ive Monte Carlo methods.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

Canonical insurance models: stochastic equations and comparison theorems

Thiele's differential equation explains the change in prospective reserve and plays a fundamental role in safe-side calculations and other types of actuarial model comparisons. This paper presents a `model lean' version of Thiele's equation with the novel feature that it supports any canonical insurance model, irrespective of the model's intertemporal dependence structure. The basis for this is a canonical and path-wise model construction that simultaneously handles discrete and absolutely continuous modeling regimes. Comparison theorems for differing canonical insurance models follow directly from the resulting stochastic backward equations. The elegance with which these comparison theorems handle non-equivalence of probability measures is one of their major advantages over previous results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Bivariate phase-type distributions for experience rating in disability insurance

In this paper, we consider the problem of experience rating within the classic Markov chain life insurance framework. We begin by establishing a link between mixed Poisson distributions and the problem of pricing group disability insurance contracts that exhibit heterogeneity. We focus on shrinkage estimation of disability and recovery rates, taking into account sampling effects such as right-censoring. We then investigate some specific multivariate mixed Poisson models with mixing distributions encompassing independent Gamma, hierarchical Gamma, and multivariate phase-type. In particular, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood estimation for these models can be performed using expectation-maximization algorithms, which might be of independent interest. Finally, we showcase the practicality of the proposed shrinkage estimators through a numerical study based on simulated yet realistic insurance data. Our findings highlight that by allowing for dependency between latent group effects, estimates of recovery and disability rates mutually improve, leading to enhanced predictive performance.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Conditional Aalen--Johansen estimation

The conditional Aalen--Johansen estimator, a general-purpose non-parametric estimator of conditional state occupation probabilities, is introduced. The estimator is applicable for any finite-state jump process and supports conditioning on external as well as internal covariate information. The conditioning feature permits for a much more detailed analysis of the distributional characteristics of the process. The estimator reduces to the conditional Kaplan--Meier estimator in the special case of a survival model and also englobes other, more recent, landmark estimators when covariates are discrete. Strong uniform consistency and asymptotic normality are established under lax moment conditions on the multivariate counting process, allowing in particular for an unbounded number of transitions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Aggregate Markov models in life insurance: properties and valuation

In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix analytic methods allow for a comprehensive treatment. Unfortunately, Markov chain modelling is unable to capture duration effects, so this paper presents aggregate Markov models as an alternative. Aggregate Markov models retain most of the analytical tractability of Markov chains, yet are non-Markovian and thus more flexible. Based on an explicit characterization of the fundamental martingales, matrix representations of the expected accumulated cash flows and corresponding prospective reserves are derived for duration-dependent payments with and without incidental policyholder behaviour. Throughout, special attention is given to a semi-Markovian case. Finally, the methods and results are illustrated in a numerical example.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Transaction time models in multi-state life insurance

In life insurance contracts, benefits and premiums are typically paid contingent on the biometric state of the insured. Due to delays between the occurrence, reporting, and settlement of changes to the biometric state, the state process is not fully observable in real-time. This fact implies that the classic multi-state models for the biometric state of the insured are not able to describe the development of the policy in real-time, which encompasses handling of incurred-but-not-reported and reported-but-not-settled claims. We give a fundamental treatment of the problem in the setting of continuous-time multi-state life insurance by introducing a new class of models: transaction time models. The relation between the transaction time model and the classic model is studied and a result linking the present values in the two models is derived. The results and their practical implications are illustrated for disability coverages, where we obtain explicit expressions for the transaction time reserve in specific models.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Expert Kaplan--Meier estimation

The setting of a right-censored random sample subject to contamination is considered. In various fields, expert information is often available and used to overcome the contamination. This paper integrates expert knowledge into the product-limit estimator in two different ways with distinct interpretations. Strong uniform consistency is proved for both cases under certain assumptions on the kind of contamination and the quality of expert information, which sheds light on the techniques and decisions that practitioners may take. The nuances of the techniques are discussed -- also with a view towards semi-parametric estimation -- and they are illustrated using simulated and real-world insurance data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Computation of bonus in multi-state life insurance

We consider computation of market values of bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance. The bonus scheme consists of additional benefits bought according to a dividend strategy that depends on the past realization of financial risk, the current individual insurance risk, the number of additional benefits currently held, and so-called portfolio-wide means describing the shape of the insurance business. We formulate numerical procedures that efficiently combine simulation of financial risk with classic methods for the outstanding insurance risk. Special attention is given to the case where the number of additional benefits bought only depends on the financial risk. Methods and results are illustrated via a numerical example.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Tax- and expense-modified risk-minimization for insurance payment processes

We study the problem of determining risk-minimizing investment strategies for insurance payment processes in the presence of taxes and expenses. We consider the situation where taxes and expenses are paid continuously and symmetrically and introduce the concept of tax- and expense-modified risk-minimization. Risk-minimizing strategies in the presence of taxes and expenses are derived and linked to Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decompositions associated with modified versions of the original payment processes. Furthermore, we show equivalence to an alternative approach involving an artificial market consisting of after-tax and after-expense assets, and we establish a type of consistency with classic risk-minimization. Finally, a case study involving classic multi-state life insurance payments in combination with a bond market exemplifies the results.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

Dynamics of state-wise prospective reserves in the presence of non-monotone information

In the presence of monotone information, the stochastic Thiele equation describing the dynamics of state-wise prospective reserves is closely related to the classic martingale representation theorem. When the information utilized by the insurer is non-monotone, the classic martingale theory does not apply. By taking an infinitesimal approach, we derive a generalized stochastic Thiele equation that allows for information discarding. En passant, we solve some open problems for the classic case of monotone information. The results and their implication in practice are illustrated via examples where information is discarded upon and after stochastic retirement.

math.PR↗