arXiv subjects

Christian Gouriéroux

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Gouriéroux.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Identication and Estimation of Nonsymmetric Determinantal Point Processes

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) provide tractable distributions for nite random sets, but the usual symmetric-kernel specication imposes nonpositive pairwise dependence. Statistical research on nonsymmetric DPPs, which can accommodate positive dependence, remains limited. We study identication and estimation for this class. First, we establish the equivalence of two sucient conditions for a nonsymmetric kernel to dene a valid DPP. Second, we develop the identication theory for nonsymmetric DPPs. Third, we develop cardinality-truncated maximum-likelihood estimation and estimation by averaged stochastic gradient descent. Under suitable identication and regularity conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality for both estimators. Simulations examine identication, the eects of truncation, and the nite-sample performance of the estimators. We illustrate the methods with two cyber applications at markedly dierent sampling frequencies: weekly sector-by-breach data and second-by-second enterprise authentication data with more than ve million set observations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

The Causal-Noncausal Tail Processes

This paper considers one-dimensional mixed causal/noncausal autoregressive (MAR) processes with heavy tail, usually introduced to model trajectories with patterns including asymmetric peaks and throughs, speculative bubbles, flash crashes, or jumps. We especially focus on the extremal behaviour of these processes when at a given date the process is above a large threshold and emphasize the roles of pure causal and noncausal components of the tail process. We provide the dynamic of the tail process and explain how it can be updated during the life of a speculative bubble. In particular we discuss the prediction of the turning point(s) and introduce pure residual plots as a diagnostic for the bubble episodes.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A simple estimator of the correlation kernel matrix of a determinantal point process

The Determinantal Point Process (DPP) is a parameterized model for multivariate binary variables, characterized by a correlation kernel matrix. This paper proposes a closed form estimator of this kernel, which is particularly easy to implement and can also be used as a starting value of learning algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimator, as well as its large deviation properties.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Composite Likelihood for Stochastic Migration Model with Unobserved Factor

We introduce the conditional Maximum Composite Likelihood (MCL) estimation method for the stochastic factor ordered Probit model of credit rating transitions of firms. This model is recommended for internal credit risk assessment procedures in banks and financial institutions under the Basel III regulations. Its exact likelihood function involves a high-dimensional integral, which can be approximated numerically before maximization. However, the estimated migration risk and required capital tend to be sensitive to the quality of this approximation, potentially leading to statistical regulatory arbitrage. The proposed conditional MCL estimator circumvents this problem and maximizes the composite log-likelihood of the factor ordered Probit model. We present three conditional MCL estimators of different complexity and examine their consistency and asymptotic normality when n and T tend to infinity. The performance of these estimators at finite T is examined and compared with a granularity-based approach in a simulation study. The use of the MCL estimator is also illustrated in an empirical application.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Consumer Theory with Non-Parametric Taste Uncertainty and Individual Heterogeneity

We introduce two models of non-parametric random utility for demand systems: the stochastic absolute risk aversion (SARA) model, and the stochastic safety-first (SSF) model. In each model, individual-level heterogeneity is characterized by a distribution $π\inΠ$ of taste parameters, and heterogeneity across consumers is introduced using a distribution $F$ over the distributions in $Π$. Demand is non-separable and heterogeneity is infinite-dimensional. Both models admit corner solutions. We consider two frameworks for estimation: a Bayesian framework in which $F$ is known, and a hyperparametric (or empirical Bayesian) framework in which $F$ is a member of a known parametric family. Our methods are illustrated by an application to a large U.S. panel of scanner data on alcohol consumption.

econ.EM↗