arXiv subjects

Christian Heumann

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Heumann.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Methods to derive uncertainty intervals for lifetime risks for lung cancer related to occupational radon exposure

Introduction Lifetime risks quantify health risks from radiation exposure and play an important role in radiation detriment and radon dose conversion. This study considers the lifetime risk of dying from lung cancer related to occupational radon exposure, focusing on lifetime excess absolute risk (LEAR), in addition to other lifetime risk measures. This article derives and discusses uncertainty intervals for these estimates. Methods Uncertainties in two components of lifetime risk calculations are modeled: risk model parameter estimates for excess relative risk of lung cancer and baseline mortality rates. Approximate normality assumption (ANA) methods and Bayesian techniques quantify risk model parameter uncertainty. The methods are applied to risk models from the German "Wismut" uranium miners cohort study (full cohort with follow-up 2018 and the 1960+ sub-cohort of miners hired in 1960 or later). Mortality rate uncertainty is assessed based on WHO data. Monte Carlo simulations yield uncertainty intervals, which are compared across different lifetime risk measures. Results Risk model parameter uncertainty is the largest contributor to lifetime risk uncertainty, with baseline mortality rate uncertainty also significant. For the 1960+ sub-cohort risk model, LEAR was 6.70% (95% uncertainty interval: [3.26, 12.28]) for an exposure of 2 Working Level Months from age 18-64, compared to 3.43% ([2.06, 4.84]) for the full cohort. Differences across lifetime risk measures are minor. Conclusion Here, risk model parameter uncertainty substantially drives lifetime risk uncertainty, supporting the use of ANA methods for practicality. Choice of lifetime risk measures has negligible impact. Derived uncertainty intervals align with the range of lifetime risk estimates from uranium miners studies in the literature and should inform radiation protection policies based on lifetime risks.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Adaptive Contrastive Search: Uncertainty-Guided Decoding for Open-Ended Text Generation

Decoding from the output distributions of large language models to produce high-quality text is a complex challenge in language modeling. Various approaches, such as beam search, sampling with temperature, $k-$sampling, nucleus $p-$sampling, typical decoding, contrastive decoding, and contrastive search, have been proposed to address this problem, aiming to improve coherence, diversity, as well as resemblance to human-generated text. In this study, we introduce adaptive contrastive search, a novel decoding strategy extending contrastive search by incorporating an adaptive degeneration penalty, guided by the estimated uncertainty of the model at each generation step. This strategy is designed to enhance both the creativity and diversity of the language modeling process while at the same time producing coherent and high-quality generated text output. Our findings indicate performance enhancement in both aspects, across different model architectures and datasets, underscoring the effectiveness of our method in text generation tasks. Our code base, datasets, and models are publicly available.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

fmeffects: An R Package for Forward Marginal Effects

Forward marginal effects have recently been introduced as a versatile and effective model-agnostic interpretation method particularly suited for non-linear and non-parametric prediction models. They provide comprehensible model explanations of the form: if we change feature values by a pre-specified step size, what is the change in the predicted outcome? We present the R package fmeffects, the first software implementation of the theory surrounding forward marginal effects. The relevant theoretical background, package functionality and handling, as well as the software design and options for future extensions are discussed in this paper.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Position Paper: Bridging the Gap Between Machine Learning and Sensitivity Analysis

We argue that interpretations of machine learning (ML) models or the model-building process can be seen as a form of sensitivity analysis (SA), a general methodology used to explain complex systems in many fields such as environmental modeling, engineering, or economics. We address both researchers and practitioners, calling attention to the benefits of a unified SA-based view of explanations in ML and the necessity to fully credit related work. We bridge the gap between both fields by formally describing how (a) the ML process is a system suitable for SA, (b) how existing ML interpretation methods relate to this perspective, and (c) how other SA techniques could be applied to ML.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Can OpenSource beat ChatGPT? -- A Comparative Study of Large Language Models for Text-to-Code Generation

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools with potential applications in various fields, including software engineering. Within the scope of this research, we evaluate five different state-of-the-art LLMs - Bard, BingChat, ChatGPT, Llama2, and Code Llama - concerning their capabilities for text-to-code generation. In an empirical study, we feed prompts with textual descriptions of coding problems sourced from the programming website LeetCode to the models with the task of creating solutions in Python. Subsequently, the quality of the generated outputs is assessed using the testing functionalities of LeetCode. The results indicate large differences in performance between the investigated models. ChatGPT can handle these typical programming challenges by far the most effectively, surpassing even code-specialized models like Code Llama. To gain further insights, we measure the runtime as well as the memory usage of the generated outputs and compared them to the other code submissions on Leetcode. A detailed error analysis, encompassing a comparison of the differences concerning correct indentation and form of the generated code as well as an assignment of the incorrectly solved tasks to certain error categories allows us to obtain a more nuanced picture of the results and potential for improvement. The results also show a clear pattern of increasingly incorrect produced code when the models are facing a lot of context in the form of longer prompts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

How Prevalent is Gender Bias in ChatGPT? -- Exploring German and English ChatGPT Responses

With the introduction of ChatGPT, OpenAI made large language models (LLM) accessible to users with limited IT expertise. However, users with no background in natural language processing (NLP) might lack a proper understanding of LLMs. Thus the awareness of their inherent limitations, and therefore will take the systems' output at face value. In this paper, we systematically analyse prompts and the generated responses to identify possible problematic issues with a special focus on gender biases, which users need to be aware of when processing the system's output. We explore how ChatGPT reacts in English and German if prompted to answer from a female, male, or neutral perspective. In an in-depth investigation, we examine selected prompts and analyse to what extent responses differ if the system is prompted several times in an identical way. On this basis, we show that ChatGPT is indeed useful for helping non-IT users draft texts for their daily work. However, it is absolutely crucial to thoroughly check the system's responses for biases as well as for syntactic and grammatical mistakes.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Sparse-group boosting -- Unbiased group and variable selection

In the presence of grouped covariates, we propose a framework for boosting that allows to enforce sparsity within and between groups. By using component-wise and group-wise gradient boosting at the same time with adjusted degrees of freedom, a model with similar properties as the sparse group lasso can be fitted through boosting. We show that within-group and between-group sparsity can be controlled by a mixing parameter and discuss similarities and differences to the mixing parameter in the sparse group lasso. With simulations, gene data as well as agricultural data we show the effectiveness and predictive competitiveness of this estimator. The data and simulations suggest, that in the presence of grouped variables the use of sparse group boosting is associated with less biased variable selection and higher predictability compared to component-wise boosting. Additionally, we propose a way of reducing bias in component-wise boosting through the degrees of freedom.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Variational Approach for Efficient KL Divergence Estimation in Dirichlet Mixture Models

This study tackles the efficient estimation of Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence in Dirichlet Mixture Models (DMM), crucial for clustering compositional data. Despite the significance of DMMs, obtaining an analytically tractable solution for KL Divergence has proven elusive. Past approaches relied on computationally demanding Monte Carlo methods, motivating our introduction of a novel variational approach. Our method offers a closed-form solution, significantly enhancing computational efficiency for swift model comparisons and robust estimation evaluations. Validation using real and simulated data showcases its superior efficiency and accuracy over traditional Monte Carlo-based methods, opening new avenues for rapid exploration of diverse DMM models and advancing statistical analyses of compositional data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Advanced Techniques in Mortality Trend Estimation: Integrating Generalized Additive Models and Machine Learning to Evaluate the COVID-19 Impact

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It is therefore of essential interest, particularly to annuity and life insurers, to predict the mortality of their members or policyholders with reliable accuracy. The goal of this study is to improve the state-of-the-art stochastic mortality models using machine learning techniques and generalize them to a multi-population model. Detailed cross-country results conducted for Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States show that the best forecasting performance is achieved by a generalized additive model that uses the framework of APC analysis. Based on this finding, trend forecasts of mortality rates as a measure of longevity are fulfilled for the future, given a range of COVID-19 scenarios, from mild to severe. Discussing and evaluating the plausibility of these scenarios, this study is useful for preparation, planning, and informed decision-making.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

A tailored Handwritten-Text-Recognition System for Medieval Latin

The Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities aims to digitize its Medieval Latin Dictionary. This dictionary entails record cards referring to lemmas in medieval Latin, a low-resource language. A crucial step of the digitization process is the Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) of the handwritten lemmas found on these record cards. In our work, we introduce an end-to-end pipeline, tailored to the medieval Latin dictionary, for locating, extracting, and transcribing the lemmas. We employ two state-of-the-art (SOTA) image segmentation models to prepare the initial data set for the HTR task. Furthermore, we experiment with different transformer-based models and conduct a set of experiments to explore the capabilities of different combinations of vision encoders with a GPT-2 decoder. Additionally, we also apply extensive data augmentation resulting in a highly competitive model. The best-performing setup achieved a Character Error Rate (CER) of 0.015, which is even superior to the commercial Google Cloud Vision model, and shows more stable performance.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Classifying multilingual party manifestos: Domain transfer across country, time, and genre

Annotating costs of large corpora are still one of the main bottlenecks in empirical social science research. On the one hand, making use of the capabilities of domain transfer allows re-using annotated data sets and trained models. On the other hand, it is not clear how well domain transfer works and how reliable the results are for transfer across different dimensions. We explore the potential of domain transfer across geographical locations, languages, time, and genre in a large-scale database of political manifestos. First, we show the strong within-domain classification performance of fine-tuned transformer models. Second, we vary the genre of the test set across the aforementioned dimensions to test for the fine-tuned models' robustness and transferability. For switching genres, we use an external corpus of transcribed speeches from New Zealand politicians while for the other three dimensions, custom splits of the Manifesto database are used. While BERT achieves the best scores in the initial experiments across modalities, DistilBERT proves to be competitive at a lower computational expense and is thus used for further experiments across time and country. The results of the additional analysis show that (Distil)BERT can be applied to future data with similar performance. Moreover, we observe (partly) notable differences between the political manifestos of different countries of origin, even if these countries share a language or a cultural background.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

How Different Is Stereotypical Bias Across Languages?

Recent studies have demonstrated how to assess the stereotypical bias in pre-trained English language models. In this work, we extend this branch of research in multiple different dimensions by systematically investigating (a) mono- and multilingual models of (b) different underlying architectures with respect to their bias in (c) multiple different languages. To that end, we make use of the English StereoSet data set (Nadeem et al., 2021), which we semi-automatically translate into German, French, Spanish, and Turkish. We find that it is of major importance to conduct this type of analysis in a multilingual setting, as our experiments show a much more nuanced picture as well as notable differences from the English-only analysis. The main takeaways from our analysis are that mGPT-2 (partly) shows surprising anti-stereotypical behavior across languages, English (monolingual) models exhibit the strongest bias, and the stereotypes reflected in the data set are least present in Turkish models. Finally, we release our codebase alongside the translated data sets and practical guidelines for the semi-automatic translation to encourage a further extension of our work to other languages.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Using interpretable boosting algorithms for modeling environmental and agricultural data

We describe how interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models can be used to analyze high-dimensional environmental data. We illustrate this by using environmental, social, human and biophysical data to predict the financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia against climate hazards. We show how group structures can be considered and how interactions can be found in high-dimensional datasets using a novel 2-step boosting approach. The advantages and efficacy of the proposed method are shown and discussed. Results indicate that the presence of interaction effects only improves predictive power when included in two-step boosting. The most important variable in predicting all types of vulnerabilities are natural assets. Other important variables are the type of irrigation, economic assets and the presence of crop damage of near farms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Multimodal Deep Learning

This book is the result of a seminar in which we reviewed multimodal approaches and attempted to create a solid overview of the field, starting with the current state-of-the-art approaches in the two subfields of Deep Learning individually. Further, modeling frameworks are discussed where one modality is transformed into the other, as well as models in which one modality is utilized to enhance representation learning for the other. To conclude the second part, architectures with a focus on handling both modalities simultaneously are introduced. Finally, we also cover other modalities as well as general-purpose multi-modal models, which are able to handle different tasks on different modalities within one unified architecture. One interesting application (Generative Art) eventually caps off this booklet.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Forecasting foreign exchange rates with regression networks tuned by Bayesian optimization

The article is concerned with the problem of multi-step financial time series forecasting of Foreign Exchange (FX) rates. To address this problem, we introduce a regression network termed RegPred Net. The exchange rate to forecast is treated as a stochastic process. It is assumed to follow a generalization of Brownian motion and the mean-reverting process referred to as the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, with time-dependent coefficients. Using past observed values of the input time series, these coefficients can be regressed online by the cells of the first half of the network (Reg). The regressed coefficients depend only on - but are very sensitive to - a small number of hyperparameters required to be set by a global optimization procedure for which, Bayesian optimization is an adequate heuristic. Thanks to its multi-layered architecture, the second half of the regression network (Pred) can project time-dependent values for the OU process coefficients and generate realistic trajectories of the time series. Predictions can be easily derived in the form of expected values estimated by averaging values obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The forecasting accuracy on a 100 days horizon is evaluated for several of the most important FX rates such as EUR/USD, EUR/CNY, and EUR/GBP. Our experimental results show that the RegPred Net significantly outperforms ARMA, ARIMA, LSTMs, and Autoencoder-LSTM models in terms of metrics measuring the absolute error (RMSE) and correlation between predicted and actual values (Pearson R, R-squared, MDA). Compared to black-box deep learning models such as LSTM, RegPred Net has better interpretability, simpler structure, and fewer parameters.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2022

Marginal Effects for Non-Linear Prediction Functions

Beta coefficients for linear regression models represent the ideal form of an interpretable feature effect. However, for non-linear models and especially generalized linear models, the estimated coefficients cannot be interpreted as a direct feature effect on the predicted outcome. Hence, marginal effects are typically used as approximations for feature effects, either in the shape of derivatives of the prediction function or forward differences in prediction due to a change in a feature value. While marginal effects are commonly used in many scientific fields, they have not yet been adopted as a model-agnostic interpretation method for machine learning models. This may stem from their inflexibility as a univariate feature effect and their inability to deal with the non-linearities found in black box models. We introduce a new class of marginal effects termed forward marginal effects. We argue to abandon derivatives in favor of better-interpretable forward differences. Furthermore, we generalize marginal effects based on forward differences to multivariate changes in feature values. To account for the non-linearity of prediction functions, we introduce a non-linearity measure for marginal effects. We argue against summarizing feature effects of a non-linear prediction function in a single metric such as the average marginal effect. Instead, we propose to partition the feature space to compute conditional average marginal effects on feature subspaces, which serve as conditional feature effect estimates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

When and when not to use optimal model averaging

Traditionally model averaging has been viewed as an alternative to model selection with the ultimate goal to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the model selection process in standard errors and confidence intervals by using a weighted combination of candidate models. In recent years, a new class of model averaging estimators has emerged in the literature, suggesting to combine models such that the squared risk, or other risk functions, are minimized. We argue that, contrary to popular belief, these estimators do not necessarily address the challenges induced by model selection uncertainty, but should be regarded as attractive complements for the machine learning and forecasting literature, as well as tools to identify causal parameters. We illustrate our point by means of several targeted simulation studies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Further Inference on Categorical Data -- A Bayesian Approach

Three different inferential problems related to a two dimensional categorical data from a Bayesian perspective have been discussed in this article. Conjugate prior distribution with symmetric and asymmetric hyper parameters are considered. Newly conceived asymmetric prior is based on perceived preferences of categories. An extension of test of independence by introducing a notion of measuring association between the parameters has been shown using correlation matrix. Probabilities of different parametric combinations have been estimated from the posterior distribution using closed form integration, Monte-Carlo integration and MCMC methods to draw further inference from categorical data. Bayesian computation is done using R programming language and illustrated with appropriate data sets. Study has highlighted the application of Bayesian inference exploiting the distributional form of underlying parameters.

math.ST↗