arXiv subjects

Christian Kurniawan

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Kurniawan.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Myopically Verifiable Probabilistic Certificates for Safe Control and Learning

This paper addresses the design of safety certificates for stochastic systems, with a focus on ensuring long-term safety through fast real-time control. In stochastic environments, set invariance-based methods that restrict the probability of risk events in infinitesimal time intervals may exhibit significant long-term risks due to cumulative uncertainties/risks. On the other hand, reachability-based approaches that account for the long-term future may require prohibitive computation in real-time decision making. To overcome this challenge involving stringent long-term safety vs. computation tradeoffs, we first introduce a novel technique termed 'probabilistic invariance'. This technique characterizes the invariance conditions of the probability of interest. When the target probability is defined using long-term trajectories, this technique can be used to design myopic conditions/controllers with assured long-term safe probability. Then, we integrate this technique into safe control and learning. The proposed control methods efficiently assure long-term safety using neural networks or model predictive controllers with short outlook horizons. The proposed learning methods can be used to guarantee long-term safety during and after training. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed techniques in numerical simulations.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

A Learning and Control Perspective for Microfinance

Microfinance, despite its significant potential for poverty reduction, is facing sustainability hardships due to high default rates. Although many methods in regular finance can estimate credit scores and default probabilities, these methods are not directly applicable to microfinance due to the following unique characteristics: a) under-explored (developing) areas such as rural Africa do not have sufficient prior loan data for microfinance institutions (MFIs) to establish a credit scoring system; b) microfinance applicants may have difficulty providing sufficient information for MFIs to accurately predict default probabilities; and c) many MFIs use group liability (instead of collateral) to secure repayment. Here, we present a novel control-theoretic model of microfinance that accounts for these characteristics. We construct an algorithm to learn microfinance decision policies that achieve financial inclusion, fairness, social welfare, and sustainability. We characterize the convergence conditions to Pareto-optimum and the convergence speeds. We demonstrate, in numerous real and synthetic datasets, that the proposed method accounts for the complexities induced by group liability to produce robust decisions before sufficient loans are given to establish credit scoring systems and for applicants whose default probability cannot be accurately estimated due to missing information. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to connect microfinance and control theory. We envision that the connection will enable safe learning and control techniques to help modernize microfinance and alleviate poverty.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2021

Myopically Verifiable Probabilistic Certificate for Long-term Safety

In this paper, we consider the use of barrier function-based approaches for the safe control problem in stochastic systems. With the presence of stochastic uncertainties, a myopic controller that ensures safe probability in infinitesimal time intervals may allow the accumulation of unsafe probability over time and result in a small long-term safe probability. Meanwhile, increasing the outlook time horizon may lead to significant computation burdens and delayed reactions, which also compromises safety. To tackle this challenge, we define a new notion of forward invariance on probability space as opposed to the safe regions on state space. This new notion allows the long-term safe probability to be framed into a forward invariance condition, which can be efficiently evaluated. We build upon this safety condition to propose a controller that works myopically yet can guarantee long-term safe probability or fast recovery probability. The proposed controller ensures the safe probability does not decrease over time and allows the designers to directly specify safe probability. The performance of the proposed controller is then evaluated in numerical simulations. Finally, we show that this framework can also be adapted to characterize the speed and probability of forward convergent behaviors, which can be of use to finite-time Lyapunov analysis in stochastic systems.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Smoothed Least-Laxity-First Algorithm for EV Charging

Adaptive charging can charge electric vehicles (EVs) at scale cost effectively, despite the uncertainty in EV arrivals. We formulate adaptive EV charging as a feasibility problem that meets all EVs' energy demands before their deadlines while satisfying constraints in charging rate and total charging power. We propose an online algorithm, smoothed least-laxity-first (sLLF), that decides the current charging rates without the knowledge of future arrivals and demands. We characterize the performance of the sLLF algorithm analytically and numerically. Numerical experiments with real-world data show that it has a significantly higher rate of feasible EV charging than several other existing EV charging algorithms. Resource augmentation framework is employed to assess the feasibility condition of the algorithm. The assessment shows that the sLLF algorithm achieves perfect feasibility with only a 0.07 increase in resources.

eess.SY↗