arXiv subjects

Christian Matthes

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Matthes.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Aggregate VARs: A Bayesian Benchmark for HANK Models

Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) models characterize how entire cross-sectional distributions respond to structural shocks. Traditional representative-agent models are routinely disciplined by impulse responses from aggregate vector autoregressions (VARs). HANK models have no comparable established empirical benchmark because they make predictions not only about aggregates, but also about distributions of micro-level data. We propose a Bayesian benchmark that jointly models macroeconomic aggregates and several marginal distributions from repeated cross sections, including distributions observed in different surveys. Our approach can use both standard structural VAR identification approaches on macroeconomic aggregates and identification restrictions imposed on micro-level data. The model delivers a joint posterior of the distributional effects of shocks, without the need for household panel data or a separate first-stage density estimate.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Large Structural VARs with Multiple Sign and Ranking Restrictions

Large VARs are increasingly used in structural analysis as a unified framework to study the impacts of multiple structural shocks simultaneously. However, the concurrent identification of multiple shocks using sign and ranking restrictions poses significant practical challenges to the point where existing algorithms cannot be used with such large VARs. To address this, we introduce a new numerically efficient algorithm that facilitates the estimation of impulse responses and related measures in large structural VARs identified with a large number of structural restrictions on impulse responses. The methodology is illustrated using a 35-variable VAR with over 100 sign and ranking restrictions to identify 8 structural shocks.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

General Seemingly Unrelated Local Projections

We develop a flexible framework for Bayesian estimation of impulse responses using Local Projections (LPs) with instrumental variables. It accommodates multiple shocks and instruments, accounts for autocorrelation in multi-step forecasts by jointly modeling all LPs as a seemingly unrelated system of equations, defines a flexible yet parsimonious joint prior for impulse responses based on a Gaussian Process, and allows for joint inference about the entire vector of impulse responses. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that our approach delivers more accurate point and uncertainty estimates than standard methods. To address misspecification, we propose an optional robustification step based on power posteriors.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Argon Broad Ion beam sectioning and high resolution scanning electron microscopy imaging of hydrated alite

Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging is able to visualize micro- to nano-structures of cement and concrete. A prerequisite is that the sample preparation preserves the native structure of the specimen. In this study, argon Broad Ion Beam (BIB) sectioning is compared to state-of-the-art sample preparation (resin embedding, polishing) for hydrated alite. Additionally, it is investigated if during BIB, sample cooling is beneficial to avoid deterioration of cement hydrates. The aim is to quantitatively measure phase and pore size distributions in hardened alite pastes. Therefore, not only optimized sample preparation but also optimized imaging conditions are investigated. Finally, it is demonstrated that by image analysis pores down to a diameter of 5 nm in hydrated alite pastes can be quantitatively analysed.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗