arXiv subjects

Christian Otto

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Otto.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Rethinking Climate Econometrics: Data Cleaning, Flexible Trend Controls, and Predictive Validation

We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we implement robust preprocessing, nonparametric time-trend controls, and out-of-sample validation across 700+ climate variables. Our analysis reveals that widely used models and predictors-such as mean temperature-have little predictive power. A previously overlooked humidity-related variable emerges as the most consistent predictor, though even its performance remains limited. These findings challenge the empirical foundations of climate econometrics and point toward a more robust, data-driven path forward.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Rise and fall of entanglement between two qubits in a non-Markovian bath

We analyse the dynamics of quantum correlations between two qubits coupled to a linear chain of oscillators. The chain mediates interactions between the qubits and acts as a non-Markovian reservoir. The the model is amenable to an analytical solution when the initial state of the chain is Gaussian}. We study the dynamics of the qubits concurrence starting from a separable state and assuming that the chain spectrum is gapped {and the chain is initially in a thermal state. We identify three relevant regimes that depend on the strength of the qubit-chain coupling in relation to the spectral gap. These are (i) the weak coupling regime, where the qubits are entangled at the asymptotics; (ii) the strong coupling regime, where the concurrence can exhibit collapses followed by revivals with exponentially attenuated amplitude; and (iii) the thermal damping regime, where the concurrence rapidly vanishes due to the chain's thermal excitations. In all cases, if entanglement is generated, this occurs after a finite time has elapsed. This time scale depends exponentially on the qubits distance and is determined by the spectral properties of the chain. Entanglement irreversible decay, on the other hand, is due to the dissipative effect induced by the coupling with the chain and is controlled by the coupling strength between the chain and qubits. This study unravels the basic mechanisms leading to entanglement in a non-Markovian bath and allows to identify the key resources for realising quantum coherent dynamics of open systems.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Protecting the Texas power grid from tropical cyclones: Increasing resilience by protecting critical lines

The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new approach of combining a probabilistic line fragility model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the temporal evolution of wind-induced failures of transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical hurricanes. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to a static approach, it provides a significant advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that protecting only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outages by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a tool so far missing to effectively strengthen the power grids against future hurricane risks even under limited knowledge.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Predicting Knowledge Gain for MOOC Video Consumption

Informal learning on the Web using search engines as well as more structured learning on MOOC platforms have become very popular in recent years. As a result of the vast amount of available learning resources, intelligent retrieval and recommendation methods are indispensable -- this is true also for MOOC videos. However, the automatic assessment of this content with regard to predicting (potential) knowledge gain has not been addressed by previous work yet. In this paper, we investigate whether we can predict learning success after MOOC video consumption using 1) multimodal features covering slide and speech content, and 2) a wide range of text-based features describing the content of the video. In a comprehensive experimental setting, we test four different classifiers and various feature subset combinations. We conduct a detailed feature importance analysis to gain insights in which modality benefits knowledge gain prediction the most.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

MM-Claims: A Dataset for Multimodal Claim Detection in Social Media

In recent years, the problem of misinformation on the web has become widespread across languages, countries, and various social media platforms. Although there has been much work on automated fake news detection, the role of images and their variety are not well explored. In this paper, we investigate the roles of image and text at an earlier stage of the fake news detection pipeline, called claim detection. For this purpose, we introduce a novel dataset, MM-Claims, which consists of tweets and corresponding images over three topics: COVID-19, Climate Change and broadly Technology. The dataset contains roughly 86000 tweets, out of which 3400 are labeled manually by multiple annotators for the training and evaluation of multimodal models. We describe the dataset in detail, evaluate strong unimodal and multimodal baselines, and analyze the potential and drawbacks of current models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

SaL-Lightning Dataset: Search and Eye Gaze Behavior, Resource Interactions and Knowledge Gain during Web Search

The emerging research field Search as Learning investigates how the Web facilitates learning through modern information retrieval systems. SAL research requires significant amounts of data that capture both search behavior of users and their acquired knowledge in order to obtain conclusive insights or train supervised machine learning models. However, the creation of such datasets is costly and requires interdisciplinary efforts in order to design studies and capture a wide range of features. In this paper, we address this issue and introduce an extensive dataset based on a user study, in which $114$ participants were asked to learn about the formation of lightning and thunder. Participants' knowledge states were measured before and after Web search through multiple-choice questionnaires and essay-based free recall tasks. To enable future research in SAL-related tasks we recorded a plethora of features and person-related attributes. Besides the screen recordings, visited Web pages, and detailed browsing histories, a large number of behavioral features and resource features were monitored. We underline the usefulness of the dataset by describing three, already published, use cases.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Predicting Knowledge Gain during Web Search based on Multimedia Resource Consumption

In informal learning scenarios the popularity of multimedia content, such as video tutorials or lectures, has significantly increased. Yet, the users' interactions, navigation behavior, and consequently learning outcome, have not been researched extensively. Related work in this field, also called search as learning, has focused on behavioral or text resource features to predict learning outcome and knowledge gain. In this paper, we investigate whether we can exploit features representing multimedia resource consumption to predict of knowledge gain (KG) during Web search from in-session data, that is without prior knowledge about the learner. For this purpose, we suggest a set of multimedia features related to image and video consumption. Our feature extraction is evaluated in a lab study with 113 participants where we collected data for a given search as learning task on the formation of thunderstorms and lightning. We automatically analyze the monitored log data and utilize state-of-the-art computer vision methods to extract features about the seen multimedia resources. Experimental results demonstrate that multimedia features can improve KG prediction. Finally, we provide an analysis on feature importance (text and multimedia) for KG prediction.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2020

Investigating Correlations of Automatically Extracted Multimodal Features and Lecture Video Quality

Ranking and recommendation of multimedia content such as videos is usually realized with respect to the relevance to a user query. However, for lecture videos and MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) it is not only required to retrieve relevant videos, but particularly to find lecture videos of high quality that facilitate learning, for instance, independent of the video's or speaker's popularity. Thus, metadata about a lecture video's quality are crucial features for learning contexts, e.g., lecture video recommendation in search as learning scenarios. In this paper, we investigate whether automatically extracted features are correlated to quality aspects of a video. A set of scholarly videos from a Mass Open Online Course (MOOC) is analyzed regarding audio, linguistic, and visual features. Furthermore, a set of cross-modal features is proposed which are derived by combining transcripts, audio, video, and slide content. A user study is conducted to investigate the correlations between the automatically collected features and human ratings of quality aspects of a lecture video. Finally, the impact of our features on the knowledge gain of the participants is discussed.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2019

Visual Summarization of Scholarly Videos using Word Embeddings and Keyphrase Extraction

Effective learning with audiovisual content depends on many factors. Besides the quality of the learning resource's content, it is essential to discover the most relevant and suitable video in order to support the learning process most effectively. Video summarization techniques facilitate this goal by providing a quick overview over the content. It is especially useful for longer recordings such as conference presentations or lectures. In this paper, we present an approach that generates a visual summary of video content based on semantic word embeddings and keyphrase extraction. For this purpose, we exploit video annotations that are automatically generated by speech recognition and video OCR (optical character recognition).

cs.MM↗

arXiv2019

Understanding, Categorizing and Predicting Semantic Image-Text Relations

Two modalities are often used to convey information in a complementary and beneficial manner, e.g., in online news, videos, educational resources, or scientific publications. The automatic understanding of semantic correlations between text and associated images as well as their interplay has a great potential for enhanced multimodal web search and recommender systems. However, automatic understanding of multimodal information is still an unsolved research problem. Recent approaches such as image captioning focus on precisely describing visual content and translating it to text, but typically address neither semantic interpretations nor the specific role or purpose of an image-text constellation. In this paper, we go beyond previous work and investigate, inspired by research in visual communication, useful semantic image-text relations for multimodal information retrieval. We derive a categorization of eight semantic image-text classes (e.g., "illustration" or "anchorage") and show how they can systematically be characterized by a set of three metrics: cross-modal mutual information, semantic correlation, and the status relation of image and text. Furthermore, we present a deep learning system to predict these classes by utilizing multimodal embeddings. To obtain a sufficiently large amount of training data, we have automatically collected and augmented data from a variety of data sets and web resources, which enables future research on this topic. Experimental results on a demanding test set demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2019

Recommending Scientific Videos based on Metadata Enrichment using Linked Open Data

The amount of available videos in the Web has significantly increased not only for entertainment etc., but also to convey educational or scientific information in an effective way. There are several web portals that offer access to the latter kind of video material. One of them is the TIB AV-Portal of the Leibniz Information Centre for Science and Technology (TIB), which hosts scientific and educational video content. In contrast to other video portals, automatic audiovisual analysis (visual concept classification, optical character recognition, speech recognition) is utilized to enhance metadata information and semantic search. In this paper, we propose to further exploit and enrich this automatically generated information by linking it to the Integrated Authority File (GND) of the German National Library. This information is used to derive a measure to compare the similarity of two videos which serves as a basis for recommending semantically similar videos. A user study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed approach.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

"Is this an example image?" -- Predicting the Relative Abstractness Level of Image and Text

Successful multimodal search and retrieval requires the automatic understanding of semantic cross-modal relations, which, however, is still an open research problem. Previous work has suggested the metrics cross-modal mutual information and semantic correlation to model and predict cross-modal semantic relations of image and text. In this paper, we present an approach to predict the (cross-modal) relative abstractness level of a given image-text pair, that is whether the image is an abstraction of the text or vice versa. For this purpose, we introduce a new metric that captures this specific relationship between image and text at the Abstractness Level (ABS). We present a deep learning approach to predict this metric, which relies on an autoencoder architecture that allows us to significantly reduce the required amount of labeled training data. A comprehensive set of publicly available scientific documents has been gathered. Experimental results on a challenging test set demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

cs.LG↗