arXiv subjects

Christian Pigorsch

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Pigorsch.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Realized Volatility Forecasting for New Issues and Spin-Offs using Multi-Source Transfer Learning

Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or spin-offs, by proposing a multi-source transfer learning approach. Specifically, we exploit complementary source data of assets with a substantial historical data record by selecting source time series instances that are most similar to the limited target data of the new issue/spin-off. Based on these instances and the target data, we estimate linear and non-linear realized volatility models and compare their forecasting performance to forecasts of models trained exclusively on the target data, and models trained on the entire source and target data. The results show that our transfer learning approach outperforms the alternative models and that the integration of complementary data is also beneficial immediately after the initial trading day of the new issue/spin-off.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Out-of-Distribution Detection Using Outlier Detection Methods

Out-of-distribution detection (OOD) deals with anomalous input to neural networks. In the past, specialized methods have been proposed to reject predictions on anomalous input. Similarly, it was shown that feature extraction models in combination with outlier detection algorithms are well suited to detect anomalous input. We use outlier detection algorithms to detect anomalous input as reliable as specialized methods from the field of OOD. No neural network adaptation is required; detection is based on the model's softmax score. Our approach works unsupervised using an Isolation Forest and can be further improved by using a supervised learning method such as Gradient Boosting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

On the definition, stationary distribution and second order structure of positive semidefinite Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type processes

Several important properties of positive semidefinite processes of Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type are analysed. It is shown that linear operators of the form $X\mapsto AX+XA^{\mathrm{T}}$ with $A\in M_d(\mathbb{R})$ are the only ones that can be used in the definition provided one demands a natural non-degeneracy condition. Furthermore, we analyse the absolute continuity properties of the stationary distribution (especially when the driving matrix subordinator is the quadratic variation of a $d$-dimensional Lévy process) and study the question of how to choose the driving matrix subordinator in order to obtain a given stationary distribution. Finally, we present results on the first and second order moment structure of matrix subordinators, which is closely related to the moment structure of positive semidefinite Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type processes. The latter results are important for method of moments based estimation.

math.ST↗