arXiv subjects

Christian Robert

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Robert.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal Sampling for Kernel Quadrature on Unbounded Domains

Kernel quadrature is widely used to approximate integrals of smooth functions, with worst-case error typically decaying at the minimax rate $n^{-\alpha/d}$ for smoothness $\alpha$ in dimension $d$. Existing rate-optimal methods often depend on deterministic point sets tailored to a specific kernel, making them sensitive to misspecification and less robust in practice. In this work, we study randomized quadrature methods with a focus on robustness rather than kernel-specific optimality. We construct an explicit, $n$-dependent sampling distribution that achieves minimax rates for worst-case error over smoothness classes without requiring knowledge of the kernel. This kernel-agnostic design improves robustness while retaining optimal rates. Our analysis includes unbounded sampling measures such as Gaussian and Student-$t$ distributions, extending beyond compact domains. The results provide both theoretical guarantees and a practical recipe for robust, rate-optimal randomized quadrature.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Peer-to-Peer Basis Risk Management for Renewable Production Parametric Insurance

The financial viability of renewable energy projects is challenged by the variability and unpredictability of production due to weather fluctuations. This paper proposes a novel risk management framework combining parametric insurance and peer-to-peer (P2P) risk sharing to address production uncertainty in solar electricity generation. We first design a weather-based parametric insurance scheme to protect against forecast errors, recalibrated at the site level to mitigate geographical basis risk. To handle residual mismatches between insurance payouts and actual losses, we introduce a complementary P2P mechanism that redistributes the remaining basis risk among participants. The method leverages physically based simulation models to reconstruct day-ahead forecasts and realized productions, integrating climate data and solar farm characteristics. A second-order theoretical approximation links heterogeneous local models to a shared weather index, making risk sharing operationally feasible. In an empirical application to 50 German solar farms, our approach reduces the volatility of production losses by 55\%, demonstrating its potential to stabilize revenues and strengthen the resilience of renewable investments.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

NEO: Non Equilibrium Sampling on the Orbit of a Deterministic Transform

Sampling from a complex distribution $π$ and approximating its intractable normalizing constant Z are challenging problems. In this paper, a novel family of importance samplers (IS) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers is derived. Given an invertible map T, these schemes combine (with weights) elements from the forward and backward Orbits through points sampled from a proposal distribution $ρ$. The map T does not leave the target $π$ invariant, hence the name NEO, standing for Non-Equilibrium Orbits. NEO-IS provides unbiased estimators of the normalizing constant and self-normalized IS estimators of expectations under $π$ while NEO-MCMC combines multiple NEO-IS estimates of the normalizing constant and an iterated sampling-importance resampling mechanism to sample from $π$. For T chosen as a discrete-time integrator of a conformal Hamiltonian system, NEO-IS achieves state-of-the art performance on difficult benchmarks and NEO-MCMC is able to explore highly multimodal targets. Additionally, we provide detailed theoretical results for both methods. In particular, we show that NEO-MCMC is uniformly geometrically ergodic and establish explicit mixing time estimates under mild conditions.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data

A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being conceptually and computationally appealing, this method involves the problematic need to also split the prior for the local inferences; these weakened priors may not provide enough regularization for each separate computation, thus eliminating one of the key advantages of Bayesian methods. To resolve this dilemma while still retaining the generalizability of the underlying local inference method, we apply the idea of expectation propagation (EP) as a framework for distributed Bayesian inference. The central idea is to iteratively update approximations to the local likelihoods given the state of the other approximations and the prior. The present paper has two roles: we review the steps that are needed to keep EP algorithms numerically stable, and we suggest a general approach, inspired by EP, for approaching data partitioning problems in a way that achieves the computational benefits of parallelism while allowing each local update to make use of relevant information from the other sites. In addition, we demonstrate how the method can be applied in a hierarchical context to make use of partitioning of both data and parameters. The paper describes a general algorithmic framework, rather than a specific algorithm, and presents an example implementation for it.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Many perspectives on Deborah Mayo's "Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars"

The new book by philosopher Deborah Mayo is relevant to data science for topical reasons, as she takes various controversial positions regarding hypothesis testing and statistical practice, and also as an entry point to thinking about the philosophy of statistics. The present article is a slightly expanded version of a series of informal reviews and comments on Mayo's book. We hope this discussion will introduce people to Mayo's ideas along with other perspectives on the topics she addresses.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2018

Abandon Statistical Significance

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm--and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it--as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to "ban" p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Approximating the Likelihood in Approximate Bayesian Computation

This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in which the likelihood is either challenging or missing. ABC uses a simulation-based non-parametric estimate of the likelihood of a summary statistic and assumes that the generation of data from the model is computationally cheap. This chapter reviews two alternative approaches for estimating the intractable likelihood, with the goal of reducing the necessary model simulations to produce an approximate posterior. The first of these is a Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (SL), initially developed by Wood (2010), which uses a multivariate normal approximation to the summary statistic likelihood. Using the parametric approximation as opposed to the non-parametric approximation of ABC, it is possible to reduce the number of model simulations required. The second likelihood approximation method we consider in this chapter is based on the empirical likelihood (EL), which is a non-parametric technique and involves maximising a likelihood constructed empirically under a set of moment constraints. Mengersen et al (2013) adapt the EL framework so that it can be used to form an approximate posterior for problems where ABC can be applied, that is, for models with intractable likelihoods. However, unlike ABC and the Bayesian SL (BSL), the Bayesian EL (BCel) approach can be used to completely avoid model simulations in some cases. The BSL and BCel methods are illustrated on models of varying complexity.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Tail approximations for sums of dependent regularly varying random variables under Archimedean copula models

In this paper, we compare two numerical methods for approximating the probability that the sum of dependent regularly varying random variables exceeds a high threshold under Archimedean copula models. The first method is based on conditional Monte Carlo. We present four estimators and show that most of them have bounded relative errors. The second method is based on analytical expressions of the multivariate survival or cumulative distribution functions of the regularly varying random variables and provides sharp and deterministic bounds of the probability of exceedance. We discuss implementation issues and illustrate the accuracy of both procedures through numerical studies.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2016

Cluster size distributions of extreme values for the Poisson-Voronoi tessellation

We consider the Voronoi tessellation based on a homogeneous Poisson point process in $\mathbf{R}^{d}$. For a geometric characteristic of the cells (e.g. the inradius, the circumradius, the volume), we investigate the point process of the nuclei of the cells with large values. Conditions are obtained for the convergence in distribution of this point process of exceedances to a homogeneous compound Poisson point process. We provide a characterization of the asymptotic cluster size distribution which is based on the Palm version of the point process of exceedances. This characterization allows us to compute efficiently the values of the extremal index and the cluster size probabilities by simulation for various geometric characteristics. The extension to the Poisson-Delaunay tessellation is also discussed.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Jeffreys priors for mixture estimation

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the mixture parameters. We study in this paper the implementation and the properties of Jeffreys priors in several mixture settings, show that the associated posterior distributions most often are improper, and then propose a noninformative alternative for the analysis of mixtures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Space-time max-stable models with spectral separability

Natural disasters may have considerable impact on society as well as on (re)insurance industry. Max-stable processes are ideally suited for the modeling of the spatial extent of such extreme events, but it is often assumed that there is no temporal dependence. Only a few papers have introduced spatio-temporal max-stable models, extending the Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick spatial processes. These models suffer from two major drawbacks: time plays a similar role as space and the temporal dynamics is not explicit. In order to overcome these defects, we introduce spatio-temporal max-stable models where we partly decouple the influence of time and space in their spectral representations. We introduce both continuous and discrete-time versions. We then consider particular Markovian cases with a max-autoregressive representation and discuss their properties. Finally, we briefly propose an inference methodology which is tested through a simulation study.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Joint asymptotic distributions of smallest and largest insurance claims

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of results pertaining to the joint asymptotic Laplace transforms of the normalized sums of the smallest and largest claims, when the length of the considered time interval tends to infinity. The results crucially depend on the value of the tail index of the claim distribution, as well as on the number of largest claims under consideration.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

On the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox

This paper discusses the dual interpretation of the Jeffreys--Lindley's paradox associated with Bayesian posterior probabilities and Bayes factors, both as a differentiation between frequentist and Bayesian statistics and as a pointer to the difficulty of using improper priors while testing. We stress the considerable impact of this paradox on the foundations of both classical and Bayesian statistics. While assessing existing resolutions of the paradox, we focus on a critical viewpoint of the paradox discussed by Spanos (2013) in Philosophy of Science.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2012

A Short History of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Subjective Recollections from Incomplete Data

We attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940s through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the algorithms currently in use. More importantly, we see how the development of this methodology has not only changed our solutions to problems, but has changed the way we think about problems.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2011

Issues in designing hybrid algorithms

In the Bayesian community, an ongoing imperative is to develop efficient algorithms. An appealing approach is to form a hybrid algorithm by combining ideas from competing existing techniques. This paper addresses issues in designing hybrid methods by considering selected case studies: the delayed rejection algorithm, the pinball sampler, the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, and the population Monte Carlo algorithm. We observe that even if each component of a hybrid algorithm has individual strengths, they may not contribute equally or even positively when they are combined. Moreover, even if the statistical efficiency is improved, from a practical perspective there are technical issues to be considered such as applicability and computational workload. In order to optimize performance of the algorithm in real time, these issues should be taken into account.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2011

Monte Carlo algorithms for model assessment via conflicting summaries

The development of statistical methods and numerical algorithms for model choice is vital to many real-world applications. In practice, the ABC approach can be instrumental for sequential model design; however, the theoretical basis of its use has been questioned. We present a measure-theoretic framework for using the ABC error towards model choice and describe how easily existing rejection, Metropolis-Hastings and sequential importance sampling ABC algorithms are extended for the purpose of model checking. Considering a panel of applications from evolutionary biology to dynamic systems, we discuss the choice of summaries which differs from standard ABC approaches. The methods and algorithms presented here may provide the workhorse machinery for an exploratory approach to ABC model choice, particularly as the application of standard Bayesian tools can prove impossible.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2011

Why approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) methods cannot handle model choice problems

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), also known as likelihood-free methods, have become a favourite tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models, primarily in population genetics but also in financial analyses. We advocated in Grelaud et al. (2009) the use of ABC for Bayesian model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields (GRF), relying on a sufficiency property mainly enjoyed by GRFs to show that the approach was legitimate. Despite having previously suggested the use of ABC for model choice in a wider range of models in the DIY ABC software (Cornuet et al., 2008), we present theoretical evidence that the general use of ABC for model choice is fraught with danger in the sense that no amount of computation, however large, can guarantee a proper approximation of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2010

On resolving the Savage-Dickey paradox

The Savage-Dickey ratio is known as a specialised representation of the Bayes factor (O'Hagan and Forster, 2004) that allows for a functional plugging approximation of this quantity. We demonstrate here that the Savage-Dickey representation is in fact a generic representation of the Bayes factor that relies on specific measure-theoretic versions of the densities involved in the ratio, instead of a special identity imposing the above constraints on the prior distributions. We completely clarify the measure-theoretic foundations of the representation as well as the generalisation of Verdinelli and Wasserman (1995) and propose a comparison of this new approximation with their version, as well as with bridge sampling and Chib's approaches.

math.ST↗