arXiv subjects

Christian Schroeder de Witt

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Schroeder de Witt.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Near to Mid-term Risks and Opportunities of Open-Source Generative AI

In the next few years, applications of Generative AI are expected to revolutionize a number of different areas, ranging from science & medicine to education. The potential for these seismic changes has triggered a lively debate about potential risks and resulted in calls for tighter regulation, in particular from some of the major tech companies who are leading in AI development. This regulation is likely to put at risk the budding field of open-source Generative AI. We argue for the responsible open sourcing of generative AI models in the near and medium term. To set the stage, we first introduce an AI openness taxonomy system and apply it to 40 current large language models. We then outline differential benefits and risks of open versus closed source AI and present potential risk mitigation, ranging from best practices to calls for technical and scientific contributions. We hope that this report will add a much needed missing voice to the current public discourse on near to mid-term AI safety and other societal impact.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Illusory Attacks: Information-Theoretic Detectability Matters in Adversarial Attacks

Autonomous agents deployed in the real world need to be robust against adversarial attacks on sensory inputs. Robustifying agent policies requires anticipating the strongest attacks possible. We demonstrate that existing observation-space attacks on reinforcement learning agents have a common weakness: while effective, their lack of information-theoretic detectability constraints makes them detectable using automated means or human inspection. Detectability is undesirable to adversaries as it may trigger security escalations. We introduce ε-illusory, a novel form of adversarial attack on sequential decision-makers that is both effective and of ε-bounded statistical detectability. We propose a novel dual ascent algorithm to learn such attacks end-to-end. Compared to existing attacks, we empirically find ε-illusory to be significantly harder to detect with automated methods, and a small study with human participants (IRB approval under reference R84123/RE001) suggests they are similarly harder to detect for humans. Our findings suggest the need for better anomaly detectors, as well as effective hardware- and system-level defenses. The project website can be found at https://tinyurl.com/illusory-attacks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Equivariant Networks for Zero-Shot Coordination

Successful coordination in Dec-POMDPs requires agents to adopt robust strategies and interpretable styles of play for their partner. A common failure mode is symmetry breaking, when agents arbitrarily converge on one out of many equivalent but mutually incompatible policies. Commonly these examples include partial observability, e.g. waving your right hand vs. left hand to convey a covert message. In this paper, we present a novel equivariant network architecture for use in Dec-POMDPs that effectively leverages environmental symmetry for improving zero-shot coordination, doing so more effectively than prior methods. Our method also acts as a ``coordination-improvement operator'' for generic, pre-trained policies, and thus may be applied at test-time in conjunction with any self-play algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees of our work and test on the AI benchmark task of Hanabi, where we demonstrate our methods outperforming other symmetry-aware baselines in zero-shot coordination, as well as able to improve the coordination ability of a variety of pre-trained policies. In particular, we show our method can be used to improve on the state of the art for zero-shot coordination on the Hanabi benchmark.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Rethinking Out-of-Distribution Detection for Reinforcement Learning: Advancing Methods for Evaluation and Detection

While reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied across numerous sequential decision-making problems, their generalization to unforeseen testing environments remains a significant concern. In this paper, we study the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in RL, which focuses on identifying situations at test time that RL agents have not encountered in their training environments. We first propose a clarification of terminology for OOD detection in RL, which aligns it with the literature from other machine learning domains. We then present new benchmark scenarios for OOD detection, which introduce anomalies with temporal autocorrelation into different components of the agent-environment loop. We argue that such scenarios have been understudied in the current literature, despite their relevance to real-world situations. Confirming our theoretical predictions, our experimental results suggest that state-of-the-art OOD detectors are not able to identify such anomalies. To address this problem, we propose a novel method for OOD detection, which we call DEXTER (Detection via Extraction of Time Series Representations). By treating environment observations as time series data, DEXTER extracts salient time series features, and then leverages an ensemble of isolation forest algorithms to detect anomalies. We find that DEXTER can reliably identify anomalies across benchmark scenarios, exhibiting superior performance compared to both state-of-the-art OOD detectors and high-dimensional changepoint detectors adopted from statistics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

The Danger Of Arrogance: Welfare Equilibra As A Solution To Stackelberg Self-Play In Non-Coincidental Games

The increasing prevalence of multi-agent learning systems in society necessitates understanding how to learn effective and safe policies in general-sum multi-agent environments against a variety of opponents, including self-play. General-sum learning is difficult because of non-stationary opponents and misaligned incentives. Our first main contribution is to show that many recent approaches to general-sum learning can be derived as approximations to Stackelberg strategies, which suggests a framework for developing new multi-agent learning algorithms. We then define non-coincidental games as games in which the Stackelberg strategy profile is not a Nash Equilibrium. This notably includes several canonical matrix games and provides a normative theory for why existing algorithms fail in self-play in such games. We address this problem by introducing Welfare Equilibria (WE) as a generalisation of Stackelberg Strategies, which can recover desirable Nash Equilibria even in non-coincidental games. Finally, we introduce Welfare Function Search (WelFuSe) as a practical approach to finding desirable WE against unknown opponents, which finds more mutually desirable solutions in self-play, while preserving performance against naive learning opponents.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Perfectly Secure Steganography Using Minimum Entropy Coupling

Steganography is the practice of encoding secret information into innocuous content in such a manner that an adversarial third party would not realize that there is hidden meaning. While this problem has classically been studied in security literature, recent advances in generative models have led to a shared interest among security and machine learning researchers in developing scalable steganography techniques. In this work, we show that a steganography procedure is perfectly secure under Cachin (1998)'s information-theoretic model of steganography if and only if it is induced by a coupling. Furthermore, we show that, among perfectly secure procedures, a procedure maximizes information throughput if and only if it is induced by a minimum entropy coupling. These insights yield what are, to the best of our knowledge, the first steganography algorithms to achieve perfect security guarantees for arbitrary covertext distributions. To provide empirical validation, we compare a minimum entropy coupling-based approach to three modern baselines -- arithmetic coding, Meteor, and adaptive dynamic grouping -- using GPT-2, WaveRNN, and Image Transformer as communication channels. We find that the minimum entropy coupling-based approach achieves superior encoding efficiency, despite its stronger security constraints. In aggregate, these results suggest that it may be natural to view information-theoretic steganography through the lens of minimum entropy coupling.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2023

Cheap Talk Discovery and Utilization in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

By enabling agents to communicate, recent cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods have demonstrated better task performance and more coordinated behavior. Most existing approaches facilitate inter-agent communication by allowing agents to send messages to each other through free communication channels, i.e., cheap talk channels. Current methods require these channels to be constantly accessible and known to the agents a priori. In this work, we lift these requirements such that the agents must discover the cheap talk channels and learn how to use them. Hence, the problem has two main parts: cheap talk discovery (CTD) and cheap talk utilization (CTU). We introduce a novel conceptual framework for both parts and develop a new algorithm based on mutual information maximization that outperforms existing algorithms in CTD/CTU settings. We also release a novel benchmark suite to stimulate future research in CTD/CTU.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Revealing Robust Oil and Gas Company Macro-Strategies using Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOC decision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of an incumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial play facilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategies robust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, these strategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts of capital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Our findings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectively mobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsible reallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enable the emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Model-Free Opponent Shaping

In general-sum games, the interaction of self-interested learning agents commonly leads to collectively worst-case outcomes, such as defect-defect in the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). To overcome this, some methods, such as Learning with Opponent-Learning Awareness (LOLA), shape their opponents' learning process. However, these methods are myopic since only a small number of steps can be anticipated, are asymmetric since they treat other agents as naive learners, and require the use of higher-order derivatives, which are calculated through white-box access to an opponent's differentiable learning algorithm. To address these issues, we propose Model-Free Opponent Shaping (M-FOS). M-FOS learns in a meta-game in which each meta-step is an episode of the underlying inner game. The meta-state consists of the inner policies, and the meta-policy produces a new inner policy to be used in the next episode. M-FOS then uses generic model-free optimisation methods to learn meta-policies that accomplish long-horizon opponent shaping. Empirically, M-FOS near-optimally exploits naive learners and other, more sophisticated algorithms from the literature. For example, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first method to learn the well-known Zero-Determinant (ZD) extortion strategy in the IPD. In the same settings, M-FOS leads to socially optimal outcomes under meta-self-play. Finally, we show that M-FOS can be scaled to high-dimensional settings.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Discovered Policy Optimisation

Tremendous progress has been made in reinforcement learning (RL) over the past decade. Most of these advancements came through the continual development of new algorithms, which were designed using a combination of mathematical derivations, intuitions, and experimentation. Such an approach of creating algorithms manually is limited by human understanding and ingenuity. In contrast, meta-learning provides a toolkit for automatic machine learning method optimisation, potentially addressing this flaw. However, black-box approaches which attempt to discover RL algorithms with minimal prior structure have thus far not outperformed existing hand-crafted algorithms. Mirror Learning, which includes RL algorithms, such as PPO, offers a potential middle-ground starting point: while every method in this framework comes with theoretical guarantees, components that differentiate them are subject to design. In this paper we explore the Mirror Learning space by meta-learning a "drift" function. We refer to the immediate result as Learnt Policy Optimisation (LPO). By analysing LPO we gain original insights into policy optimisation which we use to formulate a novel, closed-form RL algorithm, Discovered Policy Optimisation (DPO). Our experiments in Brax environments confirm state-of-the-art performance of LPO and DPO, as well as their transfer to unseen settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Generalized Beliefs for Cooperative AI

Self-play is a common paradigm for constructing solutions in Markov games that can yield optimal policies in collaborative settings. However, these policies often adopt highly-specialized conventions that make playing with a novel partner difficult. To address this, recent approaches rely on encoding symmetry and convention-awareness into policy training, but these require strong environmental assumptions and can complicate policy training. We therefore propose moving the learning of conventions to the belief space. Specifically, we propose a belief learning model that can maintain beliefs over rollouts of policies not seen at training time, and can thus decode and adapt to novel conventions at test time. We show how to leverage this model for both search and training of a best response over various pools of policies to greatly improve ad-hoc teamplay. We also show how our setup promotes explainability and interpretability of nuanced agent conventions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Communicating via Markov Decision Processes

We consider the problem of communicating exogenous information by means of Markov decision process trajectories. This setting, which we call a Markov coding game (MCG), generalizes both source coding and a large class of referential games. MCGs also isolate a problem that is important in decentralized control settings in which cheap-talk is not available -- namely, they require balancing communication with the associated cost of communicating. We contribute a theoretically grounded approach to MCGs based on maximum entropy reinforcement learning and minimum entropy coupling that we call MEME. Due to recent breakthroughs in approximation algorithms for minimum entropy coupling, MEME is not merely a theoretical algorithm, but can be applied to practical settings. Empirically, we show both that MEME is able to outperform a strong baseline on small MCGs and that MEME is able to achieve strong performance on extremely large MCGs. To the latter point, we demonstrate that MEME is able to losslessly communicate binary images via trajectories of Cartpole and Pong, while simultaneously achieving the maximal or near maximal expected returns, and that it is even capable of performing well in the presence of actuator noise.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Biological Evolution and Genetic Algorithms: Exploring the Space of Abstract Tile Self-Assembly

A physically-motivated genetic algorithm (GA) and full enumeration for a tile-based model of self-assembly (JaTAM) is implemented using a graphics processing unit (GPU). We observe performance gains with respect to state-of-the-art implementations on CPU of factor 7.7 for the GA and 2.9 for JaTAM. The correctness of our GA implementation is demonstrated using a test-bed fitness function, and our JaTAM implementation is verified by classifying a well-known search space $S_{2,8}$ based on two tile types. The performance gains achieved allow for the classification of a larger search space $S^{32}_{3,8}$ based on three tile types. The prevalence of structures based on two tile types demonstrates that simple organisms emerge preferrably even in complex ecosystems. The modularity of the largest structures found motivates the assumption that to first order, $S_{2,8}$ forms the building blocks of $S_{3,8}$. We conclude that GPUs may play an important role in future studies of evolutionary dynamics.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2022

(Private)-Retroactive Carbon Pricing [(P)ReCaP]: A Market-based Approach for Climate Finance and Risk Assessment

Insufficient Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimation methods and short-term decision-making horizons have hindered the ability of carbon emitters to properly correct for the negative externalities of climate change, as well as the capacity of nations to balance economic and climate policy. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Retrospective Social Cost of Carbon Updating (ReSCCU), a novel mechanism that corrects for these limitations as empirically measured evidence is collected. To implement ReSCCU in the context of carbon taxation, we propose Retroactive Carbon Pricing (ReCaP), a market mechanism in which polluters offload the payment of ReSCCU adjustments to insurers. To alleviate systematic risks and minimize government involvement, we introduce the Private ReCaP (PReCaP) prediction market, which could see real-world implementation based on the engagement of a few high net-worth individuals or independent institutions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Amortized Rejection Sampling in Universal Probabilistic Programming

Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Fixed Points in Cyber Space: Rethinking Optimal Evasion Attacks in the Age of AI-NIDS

Cyber attacks are increasing in volume, frequency, and complexity. In response, the security community is looking toward fully automating cyber defense systems using machine learning. However, so far the resultant effects on the coevolutionary dynamics of attackers and defenders have not been examined. In this whitepaper, we hypothesise that increased automation on both sides will accelerate the coevolutionary cycle, thus begging the question of whether there are any resultant fixed points, and how they are characterised. Working within the threat model of Locked Shields, Europe's largest cyberdefense exercise, we study blackbox adversarial attacks on network classifiers. Given already existing attack capabilities, we question the utility of optimal evasion attack frameworks based on minimal evasion distances. Instead, we suggest a novel reinforcement learning setting that can be used to efficiently generate arbitrary adversarial perturbations. We then argue that attacker-defender fixed points are themselves general-sum games with complex phase transitions, and introduce a temporally extended multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which the resultant dynamics can be studied. We hypothesise that one plausible fixed point of AI-NIDS may be a scenario where the defense strategy relies heavily on whitelisted feature flow subspaces. Finally, we demonstrate that a continual learning approach is required to study attacker-defender dynamics in temporally extended general-sum games.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2020

RainBench: Towards Global Precipitation Forecasting from Satellite Imagery

Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen the access to accurate multi-day forecasts, to mitigate against such events. However, there is currently no benchmark dataset dedicated to the study of global precipitation forecasts. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{RainBench}, a new multi-modal benchmark dataset for data-driven precipitation forecasting. It includes simulated satellite data, a selection of relevant meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis product, and IMERG precipitation data. We also release \textbf{PyRain}, a library to process large precipitation datasets efficiently. We present an extensive analysis of our novel dataset and establish baseline results for two benchmark medium-range precipitation forecasting tasks. Finally, we discuss existing data-driven weather forecasting methodologies and suggest future research avenues.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Is Independent Learning All You Need in the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge?

Most recently developed approaches to cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning in the \emph{centralized training with decentralized execution} setting involve estimating a centralized, joint value function. In this paper, we demonstrate that, despite its various theoretical shortcomings, Independent PPO (IPPO), a form of independent learning in which each agent simply estimates its local value function, can perform just as well as or better than state-of-the-art joint learning approaches on popular multi-agent benchmark suite SMAC with little hyperparameter tuning. We also compare IPPO to several variants; the results suggest that IPPO's strong performance may be due to its robustness to some forms of environment non-stationarity.

cs.AI↗