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Christian Turk

Publications and source records attributed to Christian Turk.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Chess Signatures of Play

A game of chess is a stream: a time-ordered sequence of moves, each carrying an engine evaluation, a measure of accuracy, a measure of position complexity, and a clock reading. We model a game as a multivariate path and apply the signature transform of rough-path theory to obtain a reparametrization-invariant, graded feature set that records the order and interaction of in-game events without a parametric likelihood. We show that a player's law of play is identifiable from the expected signature up to tree-like equivalence, construct a signature-kernel two-sample test on path space, and recast cheating detection as an anytime-valid sequential test: a signature conformance score becomes an e-process whose error is controlled for every sample size at once by Ville's inequality, with fluctuations calibrated on the moderate-deviation scale. The discriminating information lives in the signature's Levy areas, which measure whether accuracy rises precisely when positions become hard--the fingerprint of engine assistance that aggregate match-rate statistics discard. In a controlled study the test holds exact type-I control and detection power rises from negligible for subtle assistance to 0.98 for blatant assistance, with a median detection time matching the growth-rate prediction. Calibrated to Magnus Carlsen's documented elite accuracy, the monitor does not flag world-champion-level play; and we exhibit cheating strategies that leave every aggregate statistic, including the best-move-frequency z-score of the Regan system, unchanged yet are caught cleanly by the signature--making precise how an order-aware, anytime-valid test strengthens the prevailing approach to chess anti-cheating.

stat.AP

Gambits: Theory and Evidence

Gambits are central to human decision-making. Our goal is to provide a theory of Gambits. A Gambit is a combination of psychological and technical factors designed to disrupt predictable play. Chess provides an environment to study gambits and behavioral game theory. Our theory is based on the Bellman optimality path for sequential decision-making. This allows us to calculate the $Q$-values of a Gambit where material (usually a pawn) is sacrificed for dynamic play. On the empirical side, we study the effectiveness of a number of popular chess Gambits. This is a natural setting as chess Gambits require a sequential assessment of a set of moves (a.k.a. policy) after the Gambit has been accepted. Our analysis uses Stockfish 14.1 to calculate the optimal Bellman $Q$ values, which fundamentally measures if a position is winning or losing. To test whether Bellman's equation holds in play, we estimate the transition probabilities to the next board state via a database of expert human play. This then allows us to test whether the \emph{Gambiteer} is following the optimal path in his decision-making. Our methodology is applied to the popular Stafford and reverse Stafford (a.k.a. Boden-Kieretsky-Morphy) Gambit and other common ones including the Smith-Morra, Goring, Danish and Halloween Gambits. We build on research in human decision-making by proving an irrational skewness preference within agents in chess. We conclude with directions for future research.

econ.TH

Snow metamorphism: a fractal approach

Snow is a porous disordered medium consisting of air and three water phases: ice, vapour and liquid. The ice phase consists of an assemblage of grains, ice matrix, initially arranged over a random load bearing skeleton. The quantitative relationship between density and morphological characteristics of different snow microstructures is still an open issue. In this work, a three-dimensional fractal description of density corresponding to different snow microstructure is put forward. First, snow density is simulated in terms of a generalized Menger sponge model. Then, a fully three-dimensional compact stochastic fractal model is adopted. The latter approach yields a quantitative map of the randomness of the snow texture, which is described as a three-dimensional fractional Brownian field with the Hurst exponent H varying as continuous parameter. The Hurst exponent is found to be strongly dependent on snow morphology and density. The approach might be applied to all those cases where the morphological evolution of snow cover or ice sheets should be conveniently described at a quantitative level.

cond-mat.stat-mech

Fractal Heterogeneous Media

A method is proposed for generating compact fractal disordered media, by generalizing the random midpoint displacement algorithm. The obtained structures are invasive stochastic fractals, with the Hurst exponent varying as a continuous parameter, as opposed to lacunar deterministic fractals, such as the Menger sponge. By employing the Detrending Moving Average algorithm [Phys. Rev. E 76, 056703 (2007)], the Hurst exponent of the generated structure can be subsequently checked. The fractality of such a structure is referred to a property defined over a three dimensional topology rather than to the topology itself. Consequently, in this framework, the Hurst exponent should be intended as an estimator of compactness rather than of roughness. Applications can be envisaged for simulating and quantifying complex systems characterized by self-similar heterogeneity across space. For example, exploitation areas range from the design and control of multifunctional self-assembled artificial nano and micro structures, to the analysis and modelling of complex pattern formation in biology, environmental sciences, geomorphological sciences, etc.

cond-mat.stat-mech