Semialgebraic Conditions for Identifying Triangles in Phylogenetic Networks
An important consideration for a model-based method of phylogenetic network inference is the identifiability of the network parameter of the model. A recurring theme in previous works exploring this issue is that it is often difficult to identify the orientation of edges in a triangle of the network. In fact, it has been shown that for some models it is impossible to determine the orientation of triangle edges utilizing the standard algebraic technique of phylogenetic invariants. In this work, we consider one such model with a Jukes-Cantor site-substitution process and no coalescence. We give a complete semialgebraic description of three, 3-leaf Jukes-Cantor phylogenetic network models with embedded triangles. By describing these base cases, we resolve several questions about the identifiability of networks with embedded triangles. We show that for any pair of models, the intersection and set differences of the models are full-dimensional regions of the space of site-pattern probability distributions. Thus, despite being algebraically indistinguishable, these network models are not identical, nor are they identifiable (or generically identifiable). Our results also yield a straightforward biological interpretation--that the signal from a hybridization event may be immediately detectable but decays over time until it is impossible to identify the orientation of edges in the triangle of a network.