arXiv subjects

Christina Lee Yu

Publications and source records attributed to Christina Lee Yu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal Design under Interference, Homophily, and Robustness Trade-offs

To minimize the mean squared error (MSE) in global average treatment effect (GATE) estimation under network interference, a popular approach is to use a cluster-randomized design. However, in the presence of homophily, which is common in social networks, cluster randomization can instead increase the MSE. We develop a novel potential outcomes model that accounts for interference, homophily, and heterogeneous variation. In this setting, we establish a framework for optimizing designs for worst-case MSE under the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. This leads to an optimization problem over the covariance matrices of the treatment assignment, trading off interference, homophily, and robustness. We frame and solve this problem using two complementary approaches. The first involves formulating a semidefinite program (SDP) and employing Gaussian rounding, in the spirit of the Goemans-Williamson approximation algorithm for MAXCUT. The second is an adaptation of the Gram-Schmidt Walk, a vector-balancing algorithm which has recently received much attention. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our designs through various experiments on simulated network data and a real village network dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Experimentation Under Non-stationary Interference

We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, where drivers move over time, and social networks, where connections continuously form and dissolve. In particular, we focus on scenarios where outcomes exhibit spatio-temporal interference driven by a sequence of random interference graphs that evolve independently of the treatment assignment. Loosely, our main result states that a truncated Horvitz-Thompson estimator achieves an MSE that vanishes linearly in the number of spatial and time blocks, times a factor that measures the average complexity of the interference graphs. As a key technical contribution that contrasts the static setting we present a fine-grained covariance bound for each pair of space-time points that decays exponentially with the time elapsed since their last ``interaction''. Our results can be applied to many concrete settings and lead to simplified bounds, including where the interference graphs (i) are induced by moving points in a metric space, or (ii) follow a dynamic Erdos-Renyi model, where each edge is created or removed independently in each time period.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Reinforcement Learning in MDPs with Information-Ordered Policies

We propose an epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm for infinite-horizon average-cost Markov decision processes (MDPs) that leverages a partial order over a policy class. In this structure, $\pi' \leq \pi$ if data collected under $\pi$ can be used to estimate the performance of $\pi'$, enabling counterfactual inference without additional environment interaction. Leveraging this partial order, we show that our algorithm achieves a regret bound of $O(\sqrt{w \log(|\Theta|) T})$, where $w$ is the width of the partial order. Notably, the bound is independent of the state and action space sizes. We illustrate the applicability of these partial orders in many domains in operations research, including inventory control and queuing systems. For each, we apply our framework to that problem, yielding new theoretical guarantees and strong empirical results without imposing extra assumptions such as convexity in the inventory model or specialized arrival-rate structure in the queuing model.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

The Limits of Transfer Reinforcement Learning with Latent Low-rank Structure

Many reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are too costly to use in practice due to the large sizes $S, A$ of the problem's state and action space. To resolve this issue, we study transfer RL with latent low rank structure. We consider the problem of transferring a latent low rank representation when the source and target MDPs have transition kernels with Tucker rank $(S , d, A )$, $(S , S , d), (d, S, A )$, or $(d , d , d )$. In each setting, we introduce the transfer-ability coefficient $\alpha$ that measures the difficulty of representational transfer. Our algorithm learns latent representations in each source MDP and then exploits the linear structure to remove the dependence on $S, A $, or $S A$ in the target MDP regret bound. We complement our positive results with information theoretic lower bounds that show our algorithms (excluding the ($d, d, d$) setting) are minimax-optimal with respect to $\alpha$.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Entry-Specific Matrix Estimation under Arbitrary Sampling Patterns through the Lens of Network Flows

Matrix completion tackles the task of predicting missing values in a low-rank matrix based on a sparse set of observed entries. It is often assumed that the observation pattern is generated uniformly at random or has a very specific structure tuned to a given algorithm. There is still a gap in our understanding when it comes to arbitrary sampling patterns. Given an arbitrary sampling pattern, we introduce a matrix completion algorithm based on network flows in the bipartite graph induced by the observation pattern. For additive matrices, the particular flow we used is the electrical flow and we establish error upper bounds customized to each entry as a function of the observation set, along with matching minimax lower bounds. Our results show that the minimax squared error for recovery of a particular entry in the matrix is proportional to the effective resistance of the corresponding edge in the graph. Furthermore, we show that our estimator is equivalent to the least squares estimator. We apply our estimator to the two-way fixed effects model and show that it enables us to accurately infer individual causal effects and the unit-specific and time-specific confounders. For rank-$1$ matrices, we use edge-disjoint paths to form an estimator that achieves minimax optimal estimation when the sampling is sufficiently dense. Our discovery introduces a new family of estimators parametrized by network flows, which provide a fine-grained and intuitive understanding of the impact of the given sampling pattern on the relative difficulty of estimation at an entry-specific level. This graph-based approach allows us to quantify the inherent complexity of matrix completion for individual entries, rather than relying solely on global measures of performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

The Asymptotics of the Expected Betti Numbers of Preferential Attachment Clique Complexes

The preferential attachment model is a natural and popular random graph model for a growing network that contains very well-connected ``hubs''. We study the higher-order connectivity of such a network by investigating the topological properties of its clique complex. We concentrate on the expected Betti numbers, a sequence of topological invariants of the complex related to the numbers of holes of different dimensions. We determine the asymptotic growth rates of the expected Betti numbers, and prove that the expected Betti number at dimension 1 grows linearly fast, while those at higher dimensions grow sublinearly fast. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations. (Changes are made in this version to generalize Proposition 14 and to streamline proofs. These changes are shown in blue.)

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Low-order outcomes and clustered designs: combining design and analysis for causal inference under network interference

Variance reduction for causal inference in the presence of network interference is often achieved through either outcome modeling, typically analyzed under unit-randomized Bernoulli designs, or clustered experimental designs, typically analyzed without strong parametric assumptions. In this work, we study the intersection of these two approaches and make the following threefold contributions. First, we present an estimator of the total treatment effect (or global average treatment effect) in low-order outcome models when the data are collected under general experimental designs, generalizing previous results for Bernoulli designs. We refer to this estimator as the pseudoinverse estimator and give bounds on its bias and variance in terms of properties of the experimental design. Second, we evaluate these bounds for the case of Bernoulli graph cluster randomized (GCR) designs. Its variance scales like the smaller of the variance obtained by the estimator derived under a low-order assumption, and the variance obtained from cluster randomization, showing that combining these variance reduction strategies is preferable to using either individually. When the order of the potential outcomes model is correctly specified, our estimator is always unbiased, and under a misspecified model, we upper bound the bias by the closeness of the ground truth model to a low-order model. Third, we give empirical evidence that our variance bounds can be used to select a good clustering that minimizes the worst-case variance under a cluster randomized design from a set of candidate clusterings. Across a range of graphs and clustering algorithms, our method consistently selects clusterings that perform well on a range of response models, suggesting the practical use of our bounds.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Analysis of Two-Stage Rollout Designs with Clustering for Causal Inference under Network Interference

Estimating causal effects under interference is pertinent to many real-world settings. Recent work with low-order potential outcomes models uses a rollout design to obtain unbiased estimators that require no interference network information. However, the required extrapolation can lead to prohibitively high variance. To address this, we propose a two-stage experiment that selects a sub-population in the first stage and restricts treatment rollout to this sub-population in the second stage. We explore the role of clustering in the first stage by analyzing the bias and variance of a polynomial interpolation-style estimator under this experimental design. Bias increases with the number of edges cut in the clustering of the interference network, but variance depends on qualities of the clustering that relate to homophily and covariate balance. There is a tension between clustering objectives that minimize the number of cut edges versus those that maximize covariate balance across clusters. Through simulations, we explore a bias-variance trade-off and compare the performance of the estimator under different clustering strategies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Detection of Small Holes by the Scale-Invariant Robust Density-Aware Distance (RDAD) Filtration

A novel topological-data-analytical (TDA) method is proposed to distinguish, from noise, small holes surrounded by high-density regions of a probability density function. The proposed method is robust against additive noise and outliers. Traditional TDA tools, like those based on the distance filtration, often struggle to distinguish small features from noise, because both have short persistences. An alternative filtration, called the Robust Density-Aware Distance (RDAD) filtration, is proposed to prolong the persistences of small holes of high-density regions. This is achieved by weighting the distance function by the density in the sense of Bell et al. The concept of distance-to-measure is incorporated to enhance stability and mitigate noise. The persistence-prolonging property and robustness of the proposed filtration are rigorously established, and numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the proposed filtration's utility in identifying small holes.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Entry-Specific Bounds for Low-Rank Matrix Completion under Highly Non-Uniform Sampling

Low-rank matrix completion concerns the problem of estimating unobserved entries in a matrix using a sparse set of observed entries. We consider the non-uniform setting where the observed entries are sampled with highly varying probabilities, potentially with different asymptotic scalings. We show that under structured sampling probabilities, it is often better and sometimes optimal to run estimation algorithms on a smaller submatrix rather than the entire matrix. In particular, we prove error upper bounds customized to each entry, which match the minimax lower bounds under certain conditions. Our bounds characterize the hardness of estimating each entry as a function of the localized sampling probabilities. We provide numerical experiments that confirm our theoretical findings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

The SMART approach to instance-optimal online learning

We devise an online learning algorithm -- titled Switching via Monotone Adapted Regret Traces (SMART) -- that adapts to the data and achieves regret that is instance optimal, i.e., simultaneously competitive on every input sequence compared to the performance of the follow-the-leader (FTL) policy and the worst case guarantee of any other input policy. We show that the regret of the SMART policy on any input sequence is within a multiplicative factor $e/(e-1) \approx 1.58$ of the smaller of: 1) the regret obtained by FTL on the sequence, and 2) the upper bound on regret guaranteed by the given worst-case policy. This implies a strictly stronger guarantee than typical `best-of-both-worlds' bounds as the guarantee holds for every input sequence regardless of how it is generated. SMART is simple to implement as it begins by playing FTL and switches at most once during the time horizon to the worst-case algorithm. Our approach and results follow from an operational reduction of instance optimal online learning to competitive analysis for the ski-rental problem. We complement our competitive ratio upper bounds with a fundamental lower bound showing that over all input sequences, no algorithm can get better than a $1.43$-fraction of the minimum regret achieved by FTL and the minimax-optimal policy. We also present a modification of SMART that combines FTL with a ``small-loss" algorithm to achieve instance optimality between the regret of FTL and the small loss regret bound.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Exploiting Neighborhood Interference with Low Order Interactions under Unit Randomized Design

Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the difference between the average outcomes of the population when everyone is treated versus when no one is, under network interference. Under a Bernoulli randomized design, we provide an unbiased estimator for the TTE when network interference effects are constrained to low order interactions among neighbors of an individual. We make no assumptions on the graph other than bounded degree, allowing for well-connected networks that may not be easily clustered. We derive a bound on the variance of our estimator and show in simulated experiments that it performs well compared with standard estimators for the TTE. We also derive a minimax lower bound on the mean squared error of our estimator which suggests that the difficulty of estimation can be characterized by the degree of interactions in the potential outcomes model. We also prove that our estimator is asymptotically normal under boundedness conditions on the network degree and potential outcomes model. Central to our contribution is a new framework for balancing model flexibility and statistical complexity as captured by this low order interactions structure.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Clustered Switchback Designs for Experimentation Under Spatio-temporal Interference

We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is described by an MDP, where the transition kernel under either treatment (action) satisfies a rapid mixing condition. We propose a clustered switchback design, where units are grouped into clusters and time steps are grouped into blocks, and each whole cluster-block combination is assigned a single random treatment. Under this design, we show that for graphs that admit good clustering, a truncated Horvitz-Thompson estimator achieves a $\tilde O(1/NT)$ mean squared error (MSE), matching the lower bound up to logarithmic terms for sparse graphs. Our results simultaneously generalize the results from \citet{hu2022switchback,ugander2013graph} and \citet{leung2022rate}. Simulation studies validate the favorable performance of our approach.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Network Synthetic Interventions: A Causal Framework for Panel Data Under Network Interference

We propose a generalization of the synthetic controls and synthetic interventions methodology to incorporate network interference. We consider the estimation of unit-specific potential outcomes from panel data in the presence of spillover across units and unobserved confounding. Key to our approach is a novel latent factor model that takes into account network interference and generalizes the factor models typically used in panel data settings. We propose an estimator, Network Synthetic Interventions (NSI), and show that it consistently estimates the mean outcomes for a unit under an arbitrary set of counterfactual treatments for the network. We further establish that the estimator is asymptotically normal. We furnish two validity tests for whether the NSI estimator reliably generalizes to produce accurate counterfactual estimates. We provide a novel graph-based experiment design that guarantees the NSI estimator produces accurate counterfactual estimates, and also analyze the sample complexity of the proposed design. We conclude with simulations that corroborate our theoretical findings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Overcoming the Long Horizon Barrier for Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Latent Low-Rank Structure

The practicality of reinforcement learning algorithms has been limited due to poor scaling with respect to the problem size, as the sample complexity of learning an $ε$-optimal policy is $\tildeΩ\left(|S||A|H^3 / ε^2\right)$ over worst case instances of an MDP with state space $S$, action space $A$, and horizon $H$. We consider a class of MDPs for which the associated optimal $Q^*$ function is low rank, where the latent features are unknown. While one would hope to achieve linear sample complexity in $|S|$ and $|A|$ due to the low rank structure, we show that without imposing further assumptions beyond low rank of $Q^*$, if one is constrained to estimate the $Q$ function using only observations from a subset of entries, there is a worst case instance in which one must incur a sample complexity exponential in the horizon $H$ to learn a near optimal policy. We subsequently show that under stronger low rank structural assumptions, given access to a generative model, Low Rank Monte Carlo Policy Iteration (LR-MCPI) and Low Rank Empirical Value Iteration (LR-EVI) achieve the desired sample complexity of $\tilde{O}\left((|S|+|A|)\mathrm{poly}(d,H)/ε^2\right)$ for a rank $d$ setting, which is minimax optimal with respect to the scaling of $|S|, |A|$, and $ε$. In contrast to literature on linear and low-rank MDPs, we do not require a known feature mapping, our algorithm is computationally simple, and our results hold for long time horizons. Our results provide insights on the minimal low-rank structural assumptions required on the MDP with respect to the transition kernel versus the optimal action-value function.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Matrix Estimation for Offline Reinforcement Learning with Low-Rank Structure

We consider offline Reinforcement Learning (RL), where the agent does not interact with the environment and must rely on offline data collected using a behavior policy. Previous works provide policy evaluation guarantees when the target policy to be evaluated is covered by the behavior policy, that is, state-action pairs visited by the target policy must also be visited by the behavior policy. We show that when the MDP has a latent low-rank structure, this coverage condition can be relaxed. Building on the connection to weighted matrix completion with non-uniform observations, we propose an offline policy evaluation algorithm that leverages the low-rank structure to estimate the values of uncovered state-action pairs. Our algorithm does not require a known feature representation, and our finite-sample error bound involves a novel discrepancy measure quantifying the discrepancy between the behavior and target policies in the spectral space. We provide concrete examples where our algorithm achieves accurate estimation while existing coverage conditions are not satisfied. Building on the above evaluation algorithm, we further design an offline policy optimization algorithm and provide non-asymptotic performance guarantees.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Robust Max Entrywise Error Bounds for Tensor Estimation from Sparse Observations via Similarity Based Collaborative Filtering

Consider the task of estimating a 3-order $n \times n \times n$ tensor from noisy observations of randomly chosen entries in the sparse regime. We introduce a similarity based collaborative filtering algorithm for estimating a tensor from sparse observations and argue that it achieves sample complexity that nearly matches the conjectured computationally efficient lower bound on the sample complexity for the setting of low-rank tensors. Our algorithm uses the matrix obtained from the flattened tensor to compute similarity, and estimates the tensor entries using a nearest neighbor estimator. We prove that the algorithm recovers a finite rank tensor with maximum entry-wise error (MEE) and mean-squared-error (MSE) decaying to $0$ as long as each entry is observed independently with probability $p = Ω(n^{-3/2 + κ})$ for any arbitrarily small $κ> 0$. More generally, we establish robustness of the estimator, showing that when arbitrary noise bounded by $\varepsilon \geq 0$ is added to each observation, the estimation error with respect to MEE and MSE degrades by $\text{poly}(\varepsilon)$. Consequently, even if the tensor may not have finite rank but can be approximated within $\varepsilon \geq 0$ by a finite rank tensor, then the estimation error converges to $\text{poly}(\varepsilon)$. Our analysis sheds insight into the conjectured sample complexity lower bound, showing that it matches the connectivity threshold of the graph used by our algorithm for estimating similarity between coordinates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Staggered Rollout Designs Enable Causal Inference Under Interference Without Network Knowledge

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the treatment of one individual influences the outcomes of others. All existing approaches require at least approximate knowledge of the network, which may be unavailable and costly to collect. We consider the task of estimating the total treatment effect (TTE), or the average difference between the outcomes when the whole population is treated versus when the whole population is untreated. By leveraging a staggered rollout design, in which treatment is incrementally given to random subsets of individuals, we derive unbiased estimators for TTE that do not rely on any prior structural knowledge of the network, as long as the network interference effects are constrained to low-degree interactions among neighbors of an individual. We derive bounds on the variance of the estimators, and we show in experiments that our estimator performs well against baselines on simulated data. Central to our theoretical contribution is a connection between staggered rollout observations and polynomial extrapolation.

stat.ME↗