arXiv subjects

Christoph Börgers

Publications and source records attributed to Christoph Börgers.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Local wealth condensation for yard-sale models with wealth-dependent biases

In Chakraborti's yard-sale model of an economy, identical agents engage in pairwise trades, resulting in wealth exchanges that conserve each agent's expected wealth. Doob's martingale convergence theorem immediately implies almost sure wealth condensation, i.e., convergence to a state in which a single agent owns the entire economy. If some pairs of agents are not allowed to trade with each other, the martingale convergence theorem still implies local wealth condensation, i.e., convergence to a state in which some agents are wealthy, while all their trading partners are impoverished. In this note, we propose a new, more elementary proof of this result. Unlike the proof based on the martingale convergence theorem, our argument applies to models with a wealth-acquired advantage, and even to certain models with a poverty-acquired advantage.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2023

A blue sky bifurcation in the dynamics of political candidates

Political candidates often shift their positions opportunistically in hopes of capturing more votes. When there are only two candidates, the best strategy for each of them is often to move towards the other. This eventually results in two centrists with coalescing views. However, the strategy of moving towards the other candidate ceases to be optimal when enough voters abstain instead of voting for a centrist who does not represent their views. These observations, formalized in various ways, have been made many times. Our own formalization is based on differential equations. The surprise and main result derived from these equations is that the final candidate positions can jump discontinuously as the voters' loyalty towards their candidate wanes. The underlying mathematical mechanism is a blue sky bifurcation.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

ODEs and Mandatory Voting

This paper presents mathematics relevant to the question whether voting should be mandatory. Assuming a static distribution of voters' political beliefs, we model how politicians might adjust their positions to raise their share of the vote. Various scenarios can be explored using our web-based app (see text for the link). Abstentions are found to have great impact on the dynamics of candidates, and in particular to introduce the possibility of discontinuous jumps in optimal candidate positions. This is a paper intended for undergraduate students. It is an unusual application of ODEs. We hope that it might help engage some students who may find it harder to connect with the more customary applications from the natural sciences.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Variations on the two-child problem

Mr. Smith has two children. Given that at least one of them is a boy, how likely is it that Mr. Smith has two boys? It's a very standard puzzle in elementary books on probability theory. Whoever asks you this question hopes that you will answer "$\frac{1}{2}$", in which case they can say triumphantly "Oh no, the answer is $\frac{1}{3}$". This is called the two-child puzzle. Some authors have discussed a striking variation, which we'll call the Adam puzzle. Again, Mr. Smith has two children. Given that one of them is a boy named Adam, how likely is it that Mr. Smith has two boys? Astonishingly, now the answer is $\frac{1}{2}$, at least approximately. (The exact answer depends a bit on precise assumptions.) We give pictorial explanations of both puzzles. We then point out that the answers usually given rely on a tacit assumption about how the information that one of Mr. Smith's two children is a boy, or one of them is a boy named Adam, is obtained. We give examples showing that the answers may be different with different assumptions. We conclude with a discussion of why the Adam puzzle is so confusing to most people.

math.HO↗

arXiv2023

Infinitesimal phase response functions can be misleading

Phase response functions are the central tool in the mathematical analysis of pulse-coupled oscillators. When an oscillator receives a brief input pulse, the phase response function specifies how its phase shifts as a function of the phase at which the input is received. When the pulse is weak, it is customary to linearize around zero pulse strength. The result is called the infinitesimal phase response function. These ideas have been used extensively in theoretical biology, and also in some areas of engineering. I give examples showing that the infinitesimal phase response function may predict that two oscillators, as they exchange pulses back and fourth, will converge to synchrony, yet this is false when the exact phase response function is used, for all positive interaction strengths. For short, the analogue of the Hartman-Grobman theorem that one might expect to hold at first sight is invalid. I give a condition under which the prediction derived using the infinitesimal phase response function does hold for the exact phase response function when interactions are sufficiently weak but positive. However, I argue that this condition may often fail to hold.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

A new probabilistic analysis of the yard-sale model

In Chakraborti's yard-sale model of an economy, identical agents engage in trades that result in wealth exchanges, but conserve the combined wealth of all agents and each agent's expected wealth. In this model, wealth condensation, that is, convergence to a state in which one agent owns everything and the others own nothing, occurs almost surely. We give a proof of this fact that is much shorter than existing ones and extends to a modified model in which there is a wealth-acquired advantage, i.e., the wealthier of two trading partners is more likely to benefit from the trade.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2023

ODE models of wealth concentration and taxation

We refer to an individual holding a non-negligible fraction of the country's total wealth as an oligarch. We explain how a model due to Boghosian et al. can be used to explore the effects of taxation on the emergence of oligarchs. The model suggests that oligarchs will emerge when wealth taxation is below a certain threshold, not when it is above the threshold. The underlying mechanism is a transcritical bifurcation. The model also suggests that taxation of income and capital gains alone cannot prevent the emergence of oligarchs. This is an article intended for undergraduate students. We suggest several opportunities for students to explore modifications of the model.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Hanging cables and spider threads

It has been known for more than 300 years that the shape of an inelastic hanging cable, chain, or rope of uniform linear mass density is the graph of the hyperbolic cosine, up to scaling and shifting coordinates. But given two points at which the ends of the cable are attached, how exactly should we scale and shift the coordinates? Many otherwise excellent expositions of the problem are a little vague about that. They might for instance give the answer in terms of the tension at the lowest point, but without explaining how to compute that tension. Here we discuss how to obtain all necessary parameters. To obtain the tension at the lowest point, one has to solve a nonlinear equation numerically. When the two ends of the cable are attached at different heights, a second nonlinear equation must be solved to determine the location of the lowest point. When the cable is elastic, think of a thread in a spider's web for instance, the two equations can no longer be decoupled, but they can be solved using two-dimensional Newton iteration.

math.HO↗

arXiv2022

A particle method for continuous Hegselmann-Krause opinion dynamics

We derive a differential-integral equation akin to the Hegselmann-Krause model of opinion dynamics, and propose a particle method for solving the equation. Numerical experiments demonstrate second-order convergence of the method in a weak sense. We also show that our differential-integral equation can equivalently be stated as a system of differential equations. An integration-by-parts argument that would typically yield an energy dissipation inequality in physical problems then yields a concentration inequality, showing that a natural measure of concentration increases monotonically.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

A geospatial bounded confidence model including mega-influencers with an application to Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy

We introduce a geospatial bounded confidence model with mega-influencers, inspired by Hegselmann and Krause. The inclusion of geography gives rise to large-scale geospatial patterns evolving out of random initial data; that is, spatial clusters of like-minded agents emerge regardless of initialization. Mega-influencers and stochasticity amplify this effect, and soften local consensus. As an application, we consider national views on Covid-19 vaccines. For a certain set of parameters, our model yields results comparable to real survey results on vaccine hesitancy from late 2020.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Why strengthening gap junctions may hinder action potential propagation

Gap junctions are channels in cell membranes allowing ions to pass directly between cells. They connect cells throughout the body, including heart myocytes, neurons, and astrocytes. Propagation mediated by gap junctions can be passive or active. In passive propagation, the membrane potential of one cell influences that of neighboring cells without triggering action potentials (APs). In active propagation, an AP in one cell triggers APs in neighboring cells; this occurs in cardiac tissue and throughout the nervous system. It is known experimentally that there is an ideal gap junction conductance for AP propagation -- weaker or stronger conductance can block propagation. We present a theory explaining this phenomenon by analyzing an idealized model that focuses exclusively on gap junctional and spike-generating currents. We also find a novel type of behavior that we call semi-active propagation, in which cells in the network are not excitable at rest, but still propagate action potentials.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy and mega-influencers

Covid-19 vaccines are widely available in the United States, yet our Covid-19 vaccination rates have remained far below 100%. Not only that, but CDC data shows that even in places where vaccine acceptance was proportionally high at the outset of the Covid-19 vaccination effort, that willingness has not necessarily translated into high rates of vaccination over the subsequent months. We model how such a shift could have arisen, using parameters in agreement with data from the state of Alabama. The simulations suggest that in Alabama, local interactions would have favored the emergence of tight consensus around the initial majority view, which was to accept the Covid-19 vaccine. Yet this is not what happened. We therefore add to our model the impact of mega-influencers such as mass media, the governor of the state, etc. Our simulations show that a single vaccine-hesitant mega-influencer, reaching a large fraction of the population, can indeed cause the consensus to shift radically, from acceptance to hesitancy. Surprisingly this is true even when the mega-influencer only reaches individuals who are already somewhat inclined to agree with them, and under the conservative assumption that individuals give no more weight to the mega-influencer than they would give to a single one of their friends or neighbors. Our simulations also suggest that a competing mega-influencer with the opposite view can shift the mean population opinion back, but cannot restore the tightness of consensus around that view. Our code and data are distributed in the ODyN (Opinion Dynamic Networks) library available at https://github.com/annahaensch/ODyN.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Slow Convergence in Generalized Central Limit Theorems

We study the central limit theorem in the non-normal domain of attraction to symmetric $α$-stable laws for $0<α\leq2$. We show that for i.i.d. random variables $X_i$, the convergence rate in $L^\infty$ of both the densities and distributions of $\sum_i^n X_i/(n^{1/α}L(n))$ is at best logarithmic if $L$ is a non-trivial slowly varying function. Asymptotic laws for several physical processes have been derived using central limit theorems with $\sqrt{n\log n}$ scaling and Gaussian limiting distributions. Our result implies that such asymptotic laws are accurate only for exponentially large $n$.

math.PR↗