arXiv subjects

Christoph Reisinger

Publications and source records attributed to Christoph Reisinger.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models

Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting underlying financial constraints and while being practically implementable. We derive a state space for prices which are free from static (or model-independent) arbitrage and study the inference problem where a model is learnt from discrete time series data of stock and option prices. We use neural networks as function approximators for the drift and diffusion of the modelled SDE system, and impose constraints on the neural nets such that no-arbitrage conditions are preserved. In particular, we give methods to calibrate \textit{neural SDE} models which are guaranteed to satisfy a set of linear inequalities. We validate our approach with numerical experiments using data generated from a Heston stochastic local volatility model.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2021

Regularity and stability of feedback relaxed controls

This paper proposes a relaxed control regularization with general exploration rewards to design robust feedback controls for multi-dimensional continuous-time stochastic exit time problems. We establish that the regularized control problem admits a Hölder continuous feedback control, and demonstrate that both the value function and the feedback control of the regularized control problem are Lipschitz stable with respect to parameter perturbations. Moreover, we show that a pre-computed feedback relaxed control has a robust performance in a perturbed system, and derive a first-order sensitivity equation for both the value function and optimal feedback relaxed control. These stability results provide a theoretical justification for recent reinforcement learning heuristics that including an exploration reward in the optimization objective leads to more robust decision making. We finally prove first-order monotone convergence of the value functions for relaxed control problems with vanishing exploration parameters, which subsequently enables us to construct the pure exploitation strategy of the original control problem based on the feedback relaxed controls.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Calibration of a Hybrid Local-Stochastic Volatility Stochastic Rates Model with a Control Variate Particle Method

We propose a novel and generic calibration technique for four-factor foreign-exchange hybrid local-stochastic volatility models with stochastic short rates. We build upon the particle method introduced by Guyon and Labordère [Nonlinear Option Pricing, Chapter 11, Chapman and Hall, 2013] and combine it with new variance reduction techniques in order to accelerate convergence. We use control variates derived from a calibrated pure local volatility model, a two-factor Heston-type LSV model (both with deterministic rates), and the stochastic (CIR) short rates. The method can be applied to a large class of hybrid LSV models and is not restricted to our particular choice of the diffusion. The calibration procedure is performed on real-world market data for the EUR-USD currency pair and has a comparable run-time to the PDE calibration of a two-factor LSV model alone.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

First order convergence of Milstein schemes for McKean-Vlasov equations and interacting particle systems

In this paper, we derive fully implementable first order time-stepping schemes for McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations (McKean--Vlasov SDEs), allowing for a drift term with super-linear growth in the state component. We propose Milstein schemes for a time-discretised interacting particle system associated with the McKean--Vlasov equation and prove strong convergence of order 1 and moment stability, taming the drift if only a one-sided Lipschitz condition holds. To derive our main results on strong convergence rates, we make use of calculus on the space of probability measures with finite second order moments. In addition, numerical examples are presented which support our theoretical findings.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Path regularity of coupled McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs

This paper establishes Hölder time regularity of solutions to coupled McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equations (MV-FBSDEs). This is not only of fundamental mathematical interest, but also essential for their numerical approximations. We show that a solution triple to a MV-FBSDE with Lipschitz coefficients is 1/2-Hölder continuous in time in the $L^p$-norm provided that it admits a Lipschitz decoupling field. Special examples include decoupled MV-FBSDEs, coupled MV-FBSDEs with a small time horizon and coupled stochastic Pontryagin systems arsing from mean field control problems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Understanding Deep Architectures with Reasoning Layer

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in combining deep learning models with reasoning in order to handle more sophisticated learning tasks. In many cases, a reasoning task can be solved by an iterative algorithm. This algorithm is often unrolled, and used as a specialized layer in the deep architecture, which can be trained end-to-end with other neural components. Although such hybrid deep architectures have led to many empirical successes, the theoretical foundation of such architectures, especially the interplay between algorithm layers and other neural layers, remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we take an initial step towards an understanding of such hybrid deep architectures by showing that properties of the algorithm layers, such as convergence, stability, and sensitivity, are intimately related to the approximation and generalization abilities of the end-to-end model. Furthermore, our analysis matches closely our experimental observations under various conditions, suggesting that our theory can provide useful guidelines for designing deep architectures with reasoning layers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Well-posedness and tamed Euler schemes for McKean-Vlasov equations driven by Lévy noise

We prove the well-posedness of solutions to McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations driven by Lévy noise under mild assumptions where, in particular, the Lévy measure is not required to be finite. The drift, diffusion and jump coefficients are allowed to be random, can grow super-linearly in the state variable, and all may depend on the marginal law of the solution process. We provide a propagation of chaos result under more relaxed conditions than those existing in the literature, and consistent with our well-posedness result. We propose a tamed Euler scheme for the associated interacting particle system and prove that the rate of its strong convergence is arbitrarily close to $1/2$. As a by-product, we also obtain the corresponding results on well-posedness, propagation of chaos and strong convergence of the tamed Euler scheme for McKean-Vlasov stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE) and McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching (SDEwMS), both driven by Lévy noise. Furthermore, our results on tamed Euler schemes are new even for ordinary SDEs driven by Lévy noise and with super-linearly growing coefficients.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Detecting and repairing arbitrage in traded option prices

Option price data are used as inputs for model calibration, risk-neutral density estimation and many other financial applications. The presence of arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or even failure of these tasks, making pre-processing of the data to eliminate arbitrage necessary. Most attention in the relevant literature has been devoted to arbitrage-free smoothing and filtering (i.e. removing) of data. In contrast to smoothing, which typically changes nearly all data, or filtering, which truncates data, we propose to repair data by only necessary and minimal changes. We formulate the data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem, where the no-arbitrage relations are constraints, and the objective is to minimise prices' changes within their bid and ask price bounds. Through empirical studies, we show that the proposed arbitrage repair method gives sparse perturbations on data, and is fast when applied to real world large-scale problems due to the LP formulation. In addition, we show that removing arbitrage from prices data by our repair method can improve model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2020

Executive stock option exercise with full and partial information on a drift change point

We analyse the optimal exercise of an executive stock option (ESO) written on a stock whose drift parameter falls to a lower value at a change point, an exponentially distributed random time independent of the Brownian motion driving the stock. Two agents, who do not trade the stock, have differing information on the change point, and seek to optimally exercise the option by maximising its discounted payoff under the physical measure. The first agent has full information, and observes the change point. The second agent has partial information and filters the change point from price observations. This scenario is designed to mimic the positions of two employees of varying seniority, a fully informed executive and a partially informed less senior employee, each of whom receives an ESO. The partial information scenario yields a model under the observation filtration $\widehat{\mathbb{F}}$ in which the stock drift becomes a diffusion driven by the innovations process, an $\widehat{\mathbb{F}}$-Brownian motion also driving the stock under $\widehat{\mathbb{F}}$, and the partial information optimal stopping value function has two spatial dimensions. We rigorously characterise the free boundary PDEs for both agents, establish shape and regularity properties of the associated optimal exercise boundaries, and prove the smooth pasting property in both information scenarios, exploiting some stochastic flow ideas to do so in the partial information case. We develop finite difference algorithms to numerically solve both agents' exercise and valuation problems and illustrate that the additional information of the fully informed agent can result in exercise patterns which exploit the information on the change point, lending credence to empirical studies which suggest that privileged information of bad news is a factor leading to early exercise of ESOs prior to poor stock price performance.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

Well-posedness and tamed schemes for McKean-Vlasov Equations with Common Noise

In this paper, we first establish well-posedness of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (McKean-Vlasov SDEs) with common noise, possibly with coefficients having super-linear growth in the state variable. Second, we present stable time-stepping schemes for this class of McKean-Vlasov SDEs. Specifically, we propose an explicit tamed Euler and tamed Milstein scheme for an interacting particle system associated with the McKean-Vlasov equation. We prove stability and strong convergence of order $1/2$ and $1$, respectively. To obtain our main results, we employ techniques from calculus on the Wasserstein space. The proof for the strong convergence of the tamed Milstein scheme only requires the coefficients to be once continuously differentiable in the state and measure component. To demonstrate our theoretical findings, we present several numerical examples, including mean-field versions of the stochastic $3/2$ volatility model and the stochastic double well dynamics with multiplicative noise.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Rectified deep neural networks overcome the curse of dimensionality for nonsmooth value functions in zero-sum games of nonlinear stiff systems

In this paper, we establish that for a wide class of controlled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with stiff coefficients, the value functions of corresponding zero-sum games can be represented by a deep artificial neural network (DNN), whose complexity grows at most polynomially in both the dimension of the state equation and the reciprocal of the required accuracy. Such nonlinear stiff systems may arise, for example, from Galerkin approximations of controlled stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), or controlled PDEs with uncertain initial conditions and source terms. This implies that DNNs can break the curse of dimensionality in numerical approximations and optimal control of PDEs and SPDEs. The main ingredient of our proof is to construct a suitable discrete-time system to effectively approximate the evolution of the underlying stochastic dynamics. Similar ideas can also be applied to obtain expression rates of DNNs for value functions induced by stiff systems with regime switching coefficients and driven by general Lévy noise.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

A neural network based policy iteration algorithm with global $H^2$-superlinear convergence for stochastic games on domains

In this work, we propose a class of numerical schemes for solving semilinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs (HJBI) boundary value problems which arise naturally from exit time problems of diffusion processes with controlled drift. We exploit policy iteration to reduce the semilinear problem into a sequence of linear Dirichlet problems, which are subsequently approximated by a multilayer feedforward neural network ansatz. We establish that the numerical solutions converge globally in the $H^2$-norm, and further demonstrate that this convergence is superlinear, by interpreting the algorithm as an inexact Newton iteration for the HJBI equation. Moreover, we construct the optimal feedback controls from the numerical value functions and deduce convergence. The numerical schemes and convergence results are then extended to HJBI boundary value problems corresponding to controlled diffusion processes with oblique boundary reflection. Numerical experiments on the stochastic Zermelo navigation problem are presented to illustrate the theoretical results and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

Probabilistic error analysis for some approximation schemes to optimal control problems

We introduce a class of numerical schemes for optimal control problems based on a novel Markov chain approximation, which uses, in turn, a piecewise constant policy approximation, Euler-Maruyama time stepping, and a Gauss-Hermite approximation of the Gaussian increments. We provide lower error bounds of order arbitrarily close to 1/2 in time and 1/3 in space for Lipschitz viscosity solutions, coupling probabilistic arguments with regularization techniques as introduced by Krylov. The corresponding order of the upper bounds is 1/4 in time and 1/5 in space. For sufficiently regular solutions, the order is 1 in both time and space for both bounds. Finally, we propose techniques for further improving the accuracy of the individual components of the approximation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Duality-based a posteriori error estimates for some approximation schemes for optimal investment problems

We consider a Markov chain approximation scheme for utility maximization problems in continuous time, which uses, in turn, a piecewise constant policy approximation, Euler-Maruyama time stepping, and a Gauss-Hermite approximation of the Gaussian increments. The error estimates previously derived in Picarelli and Reisinger (2019) are asymmetric between lower and upper bounds due to the control approximation and improve on known results in the literature in the lower case only. In the present paper, we use duality results to obtain a posteriori upper error bounds which are empirically of the same order as the lower bounds. The theoretical results are confirmed by our numerical tests.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Error estimates of penalty schemes for quasi-variational inequalities arising from impulse control problems

This paper proposes penalty schemes for a class of weakly coupled systems of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman quasi-variational inequalities (HJBQVIs) arising from stochastic hybrid control problems of regime-switching models with both continuous and impulse controls. We show that the solutions of the penalized equations converge monotonically to those of the HJBQVIs. We further establish that the schemes are half-order accurate for HJBQVIs with Lipschitz coefficients, and first-order accurate for equations with more regular coefficients. Moreover, we construct the action regions and optimal impulse controls based on the error estimates and the penalized solutions. The penalty schemes and convergence results are then extended to HJBQVIs with possibly negative impulse costs. We also demonstrate the convergence of monotone discretizations of the penalized equations, and establish that policy iteration applied to the discrete equation is monotonically convergent with an arbitrary initial guess in an infinite dimensional setting. Numerical examples for infinite-horizon optimal switching problems are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the penalty schemes over the conventional direct control scheme.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Calibration of Local-Stochastic and Path-Dependent Volatility Models to Vanilla and No-Touch Options

We propose a generic calibration framework to both vanilla and no-touch options for a large class of continuous semi-martingale models. The method builds upon the forward partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) derived in Hambly et al. (2016), which allows fast computation of up-and-out call prices for the complete set of strikes, barriers and maturities. It also utilises a novel two-states particle method to estimate the Markovian projection of the variance onto the spot and running maximum. We detail a step-by-step procedure for a Heston-type local-stochastic volatility model with local vol-of-vol, as well as two path-dependent volatility models where the local volatility component depends on the running maximum. In numerical tests, we benchmark these new models against standard models for a set of EURUSD market data, all three models are seen to calibrate well within the market no-touch bid--ask.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Some regularity and convergence results for parabolic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations in bounded domains

We study the approximation of parabolic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations in bounded domains with strong Dirichlet boundary conditions. We work under the assumption of the existence of a sufficiently regular barrier function for the problem to obtain well-posedness and regularity of a related switching system and the convergence of its components to the HJB equation. In particular, we show existence of a viscosity solution to the switching system by a novel construction of sub- and supersolutions and application of Perron's method. Error bounds for monotone schemes for the HJB equation are then derived from estimates near the boundary, where the standard regularisation procedure for viscosity solutions is not applicable, and are found to be of the same order as known results for the whole space. We deduce error bounds for some common finite difference and truncated semi-Lagrangian schemes.

math.NA↗

arXiv2019

A penalty scheme for monotone systems with interconnected obstacles: convergence and error estimates

We present a novel penalty approach for a class of quasi-variational inequalities (QVIs) involving monotone systems and interconnected obstacles. We show that for any given positive switching cost, the solutions of the penalized equations converge monotonically to those of the QVIs. We estimate the penalization errors and are able to deduce that the optimal switching regions are constructed exactly. We further demonstrate that as the switching cost tends to zero, the QVI degenerates into an equation of HJB type, which is approximated by the penalized equation at the same order (up to a log factor) as that for positive switching cost. Numerical experiments on optimal switching problems are presented to illustrate the theoretical results and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

math.NA↗