arXiv subjects

Christoph Weisser

Publications and source records attributed to Christoph Weisser.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LabelFusion-TS: Fusing Large Language Models, Transformer Encoders, and Financial Time Series for Monetary-Policy Stance Classification

Financial text is produced and interpreted within a market environment, yet financial text classifiers almost always receive text alone. We study whether financial time series are useful as an additional input on the task of classifying sentences from Federal Reserve communication as hawkish, dovish, or neutral. Our system, \lfts{}, extends the \lf{} architecture with this modality: a small voting network combines three independently trained components, a fine-tuned RoBERTa encoder, a prompted large language model (LLM), and a fused ensemble of time-series transformers over the market series of the months preceding publication. Because only about a thousand annotated sentences are available for training, the RoBERTa encoder is first pre-trained on sentences annotated automatically by the LLM and only then fine-tuned on the human labels. Trained on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication up to 2015 and evaluated on 2015--2022, the fused system achieves 70.2\% weighted F1 -- against 64.1\% for the zero-shot LLM -- and overtakes it with as few as 240 human-labelled sentences. We take this as initial evidence for market time series as an input modality in financial text classification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

CAFE: A Compound-AI Factorial Evaluation Framework

We introduce CAFE (Compound-AI Factorial Evaluation), an open-source platform that brings design of experiments to the evaluation of compound AI systems (CAIS). Such systems expose many interchangeable choices - e.g. which retriever, model, or prompt - and practitioners rarely know which of them most affects answer quality. With CAFE, a practitioner registers each swappable component of a pipeline as a factor to build a factorial design over the chosen factors, run the resulting configurations, and score the answers on a shared rubric using a configurable LLM judge together with human raters. From these ratings it attributes answer-quality variance to the components and their interactions with mixed-effects models and reports effect sizes, significance, the best configuration, cost and latency trade-offs, and judge-human reliability. Whereas existing tools mostly either search for a good configuration or score outputs in isolation, CAFE also explains which component drives quality and whether an observed difference is significant. We validate CAFE on a retrieval-augmented question-answering (QA) pipeline over the HotpotQA benchmark dataset, where it recovers planted factor effects and stays calibrated under a permutation null. CAFE is released as a Python package and as a Web application.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Quality Without Usefulness: LLM-Generated XAI Narratives as Trust Heuristics Rather Than Decision Aids

Prior work shows that Large Language Models (LLMs) can transform Explainable AI (XAI) outputs into Natural Language Explanations (NLEs) that score highly on quality metrics such as plausibility, coherence, and comprehensibility. But does explanation quality translate to practical usefulness? We investigate this question in a time-series energy forecasting domain through five controlled experiments (2,730 judgments across 60 test instances), each operationalising a distinct facet of usefulness studied in the XAI literature. Holding NLE quality constant at the high levels established by a prior factorial study, we find that NLEs do not improve task accuracy on any of the five tasks, while inflating self-reported confidence. A placebic control shows that this confidence boost is driven by text presence rather than content. In an out-of-distribution detection task, NLEs reduce the LLM judge's ability to flag unreliable predictions, providing false reassurance that masks model failure. We characterise these findings as the Quality-Usefulness Gap and argue that evaluation of the XAI-to-NLE pipeline must extend beyond text-quality metrics to downstream task performance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

From Uniform to Learned Knots: A Study of Spline-Based Numerical Encodings for Tabular Deep Learning

Numerical preprocessing remains a critical component of tabular deep learning, as the representation of continuous features can strongly affect downstream performance. We systematically study spline-based numerical encodings, including B-splines, M-splines, and integrated splines (I-splines), under uniform, quantile-based, target-aware, and learnable-knot placement. For the learnable variants, we adopt a differentiable knot parameterization that enables stable end-to-end optimization of knot locations jointly with the backbone. We evaluate these encodings on a diverse collection of public regression and classification datasets using MLP, ResNet, and FT-Transformer backbones, and compare them against common numerical preprocessing baselines. Our results show that the effectiveness of numerical encoding depends strongly on the task, encoding size, and backbone. For classification, piecewise-linear encoding (PLE) is the most robust choice overall, while spline-based encodings remain competitive. For regression, no single encoding dominates, with performance depending on the spline family and knot-placement strategy, and larger gains generally observed for MLP and ResNet than for FT-Transformer. Learnable-knot variants can be optimized stably but may substantially increase training cost. Overall, numerical encodings should therefore be assessed jointly in terms of predictive performance and computational overhead. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/mkumar73/tdl-numerical-encodings/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting

By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices, and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative, remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LLM-Augmented Changepoint Detection: A Framework for Ensemble Detection and Automated Explanation

This paper introduces a novel changepoint detection framework that combines ensemble statistical methods with Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance both detection accuracy and the interpretability of regime changes in time series data. Two critical limitations in the field are addressed. First, individual detection methods exhibit complementary strengths and weaknesses depending on data characteristics, making method selection non-trivial and prone to suboptimal results. Second, automated, contextual explanations for detected changes are largely absent. The proposed ensemble method aggregates results from ten distinct changepoint detection algorithms, achieving superior performance and robustness compared to individual methods. Additionally, an LLM-powered explanation pipeline automatically generates contextual narratives, linking detected changepoints to potential real-world historical events. For private or domain-specific data, a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) solution enables explanations grounded in user-provided documents. The open source Python framework demonstrates practical utility in diverse domains, including finance, political science, and environmental science, transforming raw statistical output into actionable insights for analysts and decision-makers.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

LabelFusion: Fusing Large Language Models with Transformer Encoders for Robust Financial News Classification

Financial news plays a central role in shaping investor sentiment and short-term dynamics in commodity markets. Many downstream financial applications, such as commodity price prediction or sentiment modeling, therefore rely on the ability to automatically identify news articles relevant to specific assets. However, obtaining large labeled corpora for financial text classification is costly, and transformer-based classifiers such as RoBERTa often degrade significantly in low-data regimes. Our results show that appropriately prompted out-of-the-box Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance even in such settings. Furthermore, we propose LabelFusion, a hybrid architecture that combines the output of a prompt-engineered LLM with contextual embeddings produced by a fine-tuned RoBERTa encoder through a lightweight Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) voting layer. Evaluated on a ten-class multi-label subset of the Reuters-21578 corpus, LabelFusion achieves a macro F1 score of 96.0% and an accuracy of 92.3% when trained on the full dataset, outperforming both standalone RoBERTa (F1 94.6%) and the standalone LLM (F1 93.9%). In low- to mid-data regimes, however, the LLM alone proves surprisingly competitive, achieving an F1 score of 75.9% even in a zero-shot setting and consistently outperforming LabelFusion until approximately 80% of the training data is available. These results suggest that LLM-only prompting is the preferred strategy under annotation constraints, whereas LabelFusion becomes the most effective solution once sufficient labeled data is available to train the encoder component. The code is available in an anonymized repository.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

From XAI to Stories: A Factorial Study of LLM-Generated Explanation Quality

Explainable AI (XAI) methods like SHAP and LIME produce numerical feature attributions that remain inaccessible to non expert users. Prior work has shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) can transform these outputs into natural language explanations (NLEs), but it remains unclear which factors contribute to high-quality explanations. We present a systematic factorial study investigating how Forecasting model choice, XAI method, LLM selection, and prompting strategy affect NLE quality. Our design spans four models (XGBoost (XGB), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and SARIMAX - comparing black-box Machine-Learning (ML) against classical time-series approaches), three XAI conditions (SHAP, LIME, and a no-XAI baseline), three LLMs (GPT-4o, Llama-3-8B, DeepSeek-R1), and eight prompting strategies. Using G-Eval, an LLM-as-a-judge evaluation method, with dual LLM judges and four evaluation criteria, we evaluate 660 explanations for time-series forecasting. Our results suggest that: (1) XAI provides only small improvements over no-XAI baselines, and only for expert audiences; (2) LLM choice dominates all other factors, with DeepSeek-R1 outperforming GPT-4o and Llama-3; (3) we observe an interpretability paradox: in our setting, SARIMAX yielded lower NLE quality than ML models despite higher prediction accuracy; (4) zero-shot prompting is competitive with self-consistency at 7-times lower cost; and (5) chain-of-thought hurts rather than helps.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Fine-tuning of lightweight large language models for sentiment classification on heterogeneous financial textual data

Large language models (LLMs) play an increasingly important role in financial markets analysis by capturing signals from complex and heterogeneous textual data sources, such as tweets, news articles, reports, and microblogs. However, their performance is dependent on large computational resources and proprietary datasets, which are costly, restricted, and therefore inaccessible to many researchers and practitioners. To reflect realistic situations we investigate the ability of lightweight open-source LLMs -- smaller and publicly available models designed to operate with limited computational resources -- to generalize sentiment understanding from financial datasets of varying sizes, sources, formats, and languages. We compare the benchmark finance natural language processing (NLP) model, FinBERT, and three open-source lightweight LLMs, DeepSeek-LLM 7B, Llama3 8B Instruct, and Qwen3 8B on five publicly available datasets: FinancialPhraseBank, Financial Question Answering, Gold News Sentiment, Twitter Sentiment and Chinese Finance Sentiment. We find that LLMs, specially Qwen3 8B and Llama3 8B, perform best in most scenarios, even from using only 5% of the available training data. These results hold in zero-shot and few-shot learning scenarios. Our findings indicate that lightweight, open-source large language models (LLMs) constitute a cost-effective option, as they can achieve competitive performance on heterogeneous textual data even when trained on only a limited subset of the extensive annotated corpora that are typically deemed necessary.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

GPTopic: Dynamic and Interactive Topic Representations

Topic modeling seems to be almost synonymous with generating lists of top words to represent topics within large text corpora. However, deducing a topic from such list of individual terms can require substantial expertise and experience, making topic modelling less accessible to people unfamiliar with the particularities and pitfalls of top-word interpretation. A topic representation limited to top-words might further fall short of offering a comprehensive and easily accessible characterization of the various aspects, facets and nuances a topic might have. To address these challenges, we introduce GPTopic, a software package that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to create dynamic, interactive topic representations. GPTopic provides an intuitive chat interface for users to explore, analyze, and refine topics interactively, making topic modeling more accessible and comprehensive. The corresponding code is available here: https://github.com/ArikReuter/TopicGPT.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Mambular: A Sequential Model for Tabular Deep Learning

The analysis of tabular data has traditionally been dominated by gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), known for their proficiency with mixed categorical and numerical features. However, recent deep learning innovations are challenging this dominance. This paper investigates the use of autoregressive state-space models for tabular data and compares their performance against established benchmark models. Additionally, we explore various adaptations of these models, including different pooling strategies, feature interaction mechanisms, and bi-directional processing techniques to understand their effectiveness for tabular data. Our findings indicate that interpreting features as a sequence and processing them and their interactions through structured state-space layers can lead to significant performance improvement. This research underscores the versatility of autoregressive models in tabular data analysis, positioning them as a promising alternative that could substantially enhance deep learning capabilities in this traditionally challenging area. The source code is available at https://github.com/basf/mamba-tabular.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Machine Learning and Explainable AI Framework Tailored for Unbalanced Experimental Catalyst Discovery

The successful application of machine learning (ML) in catalyst design relies on high-quality and diverse data to ensure effective generalization to novel compositions, thereby aiding in catalyst discovery. However, due to complex interactions, catalyst design has long relied on trial-and-error, a costly and labor-intensive process leading to scarce data that is heavily biased towards undesired, low-yield catalysts. Despite the rise of ML in this field, most efforts have not focused on dealing with the challenges presented by such experimental data. To address these challenges, we introduce a robust machine learning and explainable AI (XAI) framework to accurately classify the catalytic yield of various compositions and identify the contributions of individual components. This framework combines a series of ML practices designed to handle the scarcity and imbalance of catalyst data. We apply the framework to classify the yield of various catalyst compositions in oxidative methane coupling, and use it to evaluate the performance of a range of ML models: tree-based models, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. These experiments demonstrate that the methods used in our framework lead to a significant improvement in the performance of all but one of the evaluated models. Additionally, the decision-making process of each ML model is analyzed by identifying the most important features for predicting catalyst performance using XAI methods. Our analysis found that XAI methods, providing class-aware explanations, such as Layer-wise Relevance Propagation, identified key components that contribute specifically to high-yield catalysts. These findings align with chemical intuition and existing literature, reinforcing their validity. We believe that such insights can assist chemists in the development and identification of novel catalysts with superior performance.

physics.chem-ph↗

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Topic Modelling with Transformer Representations

Topic modelling was mostly dominated by Bayesian graphical models during the last decade. With the rise of transformers in Natural Language Processing, however, several successful models that rely on straightforward clustering approaches in transformer-based embedding spaces have emerged and consolidated the notion of topics as clusters of embedding vectors. We propose the Transformer-Representation Neural Topic Model (TNTM), which combines the benefits of topic representations in transformer-based embedding spaces and probabilistic modelling. Therefore, this approach unifies the powerful and versatile notion of topics based on transformer embeddings with fully probabilistic modelling, as in models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). We utilize the variational autoencoder (VAE) framework for improved inference speed and modelling flexibility. Experimental results show that our proposed model achieves results on par with various state-of-the-art approaches in terms of embedding coherence while maintaining almost perfect topic diversity. The corresponding source code is available at https://github.com/ArikReuter/TNTM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Human in the loop: How to effectively create coherent topics by manually labeling only a few documents per class

Few-shot methods for accurate modeling under sparse label-settings have improved significantly. However, the applications of few-shot modeling in natural language processing remain solely in the field of document classification. With recent performance improvements, supervised few-shot methods, combined with a simple topic extraction method pose a significant challenge to unsupervised topic modeling methods. Our research shows that supervised few-shot learning, combined with a simple topic extraction method, can outperform unsupervised topic modeling techniques in terms of generating coherent topics, even when only a few labeled documents per class are used.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Twitmo: A Twitter Data Topic Modeling and Visualization Package for R

We present Twitmo, a package that provides a broad range of methods to collect, pre-process, analyze and visualize geo-tagged Twitter data. Twitmo enables the user to collect geo-tagged Tweets from Twitter and and provides a comprehensive and user-friendly toolbox to generate topic distributions from Latent Dirichlet Allocations (LDA), correlated topic models (CTM) and structural topic models (STM). Functions are included for pre-processing of text, model building and prediction. In addition, one of the innovations of the package is the automatic pooling of Tweets into longer pseudo-documents using hashtags and cosine similarities for better topic coherence. The package additionally comes with functionality to visualize collected data sets and fitted models in static as well as interactive ways and offers built-in support for model visualizations via LDAvis providing great convenience for researchers in this area. The Twitmo package is an innovative toolbox that can be used to analyze public discourse of various topics, political parties or persons of interest in space and time.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2021

Community-Detection via Hashtag-Graphs for Semi-Supervised NMF Topic Models

Extracting topics from large collections of unstructured text-documents has become a central task in current NLP applications and algorithms like NMF, LDA as well as their generalizations are the well-established current state of the art. However, especially when it comes to short text documents like Tweets, these approaches often lead to unsatisfying results due to the sparsity of the document-feature matrices. Even though, several approaches have been proposed to overcome this sparsity by taking additional information into account, these are merely focused on the aggregation of similar documents and the estimation of word-co-occurrences. This ultimately completely neglects the fact that a lot of topical-information can be actually retrieved from so-called hashtag-graphs by applying common community detection algorithms. Therefore, this paper outlines a novel approach on how to integrate topic structures of hashtag graphs into the estimation of topic models by connecting graph-based community detection and semi-supervised NMF. By applying this approach on recently streamed Twitter data it will be seen that this procedure actually leads to more intuitive and humanly interpretable topics.

cs.SI↗