arXiv subjects

Christopher C. Hayward

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher C. Hayward.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Bursting Bubbles: Feedback from Clustered SNe and the Trade-off Between Turbulence and Outflows

We present an analytic model for clustered supernovae (SNe) feedback in galaxy disks, incorporating the dynamical evolution of superbubbles formed from spatially overlapping SNe remnants. We propose two realistic outcomes for the evolution of superbubbles in galactic disks: (1) the expansion velocity of the shock front falls below the turbulent velocity dispersion of the ISM in the galaxy disk, whereupon the superbubble stalls and fragments, depositing its momentum entirely within the galaxy disk, or (2) the superbubble grows in size to reach the gas scale height, breaking out of the galaxy disk and driving galactic outflows/fountains. In either case, we find that superbubble breakup/breakout almost always occurs before the last Type-II SN ($\lesssim$40 Myr) in the recently formed star cluster, assuming a standard high-end IMF slope, and scalings between stellar lifetimes and masses. The threshold between these two cases implies a break in the effective strength of feedback in driving turbulence within galaxies, and a resulting change in the scalings of, e.g., star formation rates with gas surface density (the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation) and the star formation efficiency in galaxy disks.

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arXiv2022

Empirical Dust Attenuation Model Leads to More Realistic UVJ Diagram for TNG100 Galaxies

Dust attenuation varies substantially from galaxy to galaxy and as of yet cannot be reproduced from first principles in theoretical models. In Nagaraj et al. (2022), we developed the first Bayesian population model of dust attenuation as a function of stellar population properties and projected galaxy shape, built on spectral energy distribution (SED) fits of nearly 30,000 galaxies in the 3D-HST grism survey with broadband photometric coverage from the rest-frame UV to IR. In this paper, we apply the model to galaxies from the large-volume cosmological simulation TNG100. We produce a UVJ diagram and compare it with one obtained in previous work by applying approximate radiative transfer to the simulated galaxies. We find that the UVJ diagram based on our empirical model is in better agreement with observations than the previous effort, especially in the number density of dusty star forming galaxies. We also construct the intrinsic dust-free UVJ diagram for TNG and 3D-HST galaxies at z ~ 1, finding qualitative agreement but residual differences at the 10-20% level. These differences can be largely attributed to the finding that TNG galaxies have, on average, 29% younger stellar populations and 0.28 dex higher metallicities than observed galaxies.

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arXiv2022

Gas Accretion Can Drive Turbulence in Galaxies

The driving of turbulence in galaxies is deeply connected with the physics of feedback, star formation, outflows, accretion, and radial transport in disks. The velocity dispersion of gas in galaxies therefore offers a promising observational window into these processes. However, the relative importance of each of these mechanisms remains controversial. In this work we revisit the possibility that turbulence on galactic scales is driven by the direct impact of accreting gaseous material on the disk. We measure this effect in a disk-like star-forming galaxy in IllustrisTNG, using the high-resolution cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation TNG50. We employ Lagrangian tracer particles with a high time cadence of only a few Myr to identify accretion and other events, such as star formation, outflows, and movement within the disk. The energies of particles as they arrive in the disk are measured by stacking the events in bins of time before and after the event. The average effect of each event is measured on the galaxy by fitting explicit models for the kinetic and turbulent energies as a function of time in the disk. These measurements are corroborated by measuring the cross-correlation of the turbulent energy in the different annuli of the disk with other time series, and searching for signals of causality, i.e. asymmetries in the cross-correlation across zero time lag. We find that accretion contributes to the large-scale turbulent kinetic energy even if it is not the dominant driver of turbulence in this $\sim 5 \times 10^{9} M_\odot$ stellar mass galaxy. Extrapolating this finding to a range of galaxy masses, we find that there are regimes where energy from direct accretion may dominate the turbulent energy budget, particularly in disk outskirts, galaxies less massive than the Milky Way, and at redshift $\sim 2$.

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arXiv2022

Rapid build-up of the stellar content in the protocluster core SPT2349$-$56 at $z\,{=}\,4.3$

The protocluster SPT2349$-$56 at $z\,{=}\,4.3$ contains one of the most actively star-forming cores known, yet constraints on the total stellar mass of this system are highly uncertain. We have therefore carried out deep optical and infrared observations of this system, probing rest-frame ultraviolet to infrared wavelengths. Using the positions of the spectroscopically-confirmed protocluster members, we identify counterparts and perform detailed source deblending, allowing us to fit spectral energy distributions in order to estimate stellar masses. We show that the galaxies in SPT2349$-$56 have stellar masses proportional to their high star-formation rates, consistent with other protocluster galaxies and field submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) around redshift 4. The galaxies in SPT2349$-$56 have on average lower molecular gas-to-stellar mass fractions and depletion timescales than field SMGs, although with considerable scatter. We construct the stellar-mass function for SPT2349$-$56 and compare it to the stellar-mass function of $z\,{=}\,1$ galaxy clusters, finding consistent shapes between the two. We measure rest-frame galaxy ultraviolet half-light radii from our HST-F160W imaging, finding that on average the galaxies in our sample are similar in size to typical star-forming galaxies at these redshifts. However, the brightest HST-detected galaxy in our sample, found near the luminosity-weighted centre of the protocluster core, remains unresolved at this wavelength. Hydrodynamical simulations predict that the core galaxies will quickly merge into a brightest cluster galaxy, thus our observations provide a direct view of the early formation mechanisms of this class of object.

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arXiv2022

Chaotic and Clumpy Galaxy Formation in an Extremely Massive Reionization-Era Halo

The SPT0311-58 system at z=6.900 is an extremely massive structure within the reionization epoch, and offers a chance to understand the formation of galaxies in an extreme peak in the primordial density field. We present 70mas Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations of the dust continuum and CII 158um emission in the central pair of galaxies and reach physical resolution ~100-350pc, among the most detailed views of any reionization-era system to date. The observations resolve the source into at least a dozen kiloparsec-size clumps. The global kinematics and high turbulent velocity dispersion within the galaxies present a striking contrast to recent claims of dynamically cold thin-disk kinematics in some dusty galaxies just 800Myr later at z~4. We speculate that both gravitational interactions and fragmentation from massive parent disks have likely played a role in the overall dynamics and formation of clumps in the system. Each clump individually is comparable in mass to other 6<z<8 galaxies identified in rest-UV/optical deep field surveys, but with star formation rates elevated by ~3-5x. Internally, the clumps themselves bear close resemblance to greatly scaled-up versions of virialized cloud-scale structures identified in low-redshift galaxies. Our observations are qualitatively similar to the chaotic and clumpy assembly within massive halos seen in simulations of high-redshift galaxies.

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arXiv2022

Multi-Phase ISM in the z = 5.7 Hyperluminous Starburst SPT0346-52

SPT0346-52 (z=5.7) is the most intensely star-forming galaxy discovered by the South Pole Telescope, with Sigma_SFR ~ 4200 Msol yr^-1 kpc^-2. In this paper, we expand on previous spatially-resolved studies, using ALMA observations of dust continuum, [NII]205 micron, [CII]158 micron, [OI]146 micron, and undetected [NII]122 micron and [OI]63 micron emission to study the multi-phase interstellar medium (ISM) in SPT0346-52. We use pixelated, visibility-based lens modeling to reconstruct the source-plane emission. We also model the source-plane emission using the photoionization code CLOUDY and find a supersolar metallicity system. We calculate T_dust = 48.3 K and lambda_peak = 80 micron, and see line deficits in all five lines. The ionized gas is less dense than comparable galaxies, with n_e < 32 cm^-3, while ~20% of the [CII]158 emission originates from the ionized phase of the ISM. We also calculate the masses of several phases of the ISM. We find that molecular gas dominates the mass of the ISM in SPT0346-52, with the molecular gas mass ~4x higher than the neutral atomic gas mass and ~100x higher than the ionized gas mass.

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arXiv2022

Exploring supermassive black hole physics and galaxy quenching across halo mass in FIRE cosmological zoom simulations

Feedback from accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs) is thought to be a primary driver of quenching in massive galaxies, but the best way to implement SMBH physics into galaxy formation simulations remains ambiguous. As part of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, we explore the effects of different modeling choices for SMBH accretion and feedback in a suite of $\sim500$ cosmological zoom-in simulations across a wide range of halo mass (10^10-10^13 Msun). Within the suite, we vary the numerical schemes for BH accretion and feedback, the accretion efficiency, and the strength of mechanical, radiative, and cosmic ray feedback independently. We then compare the outcomes to observed galaxy scaling relations. We find several models that satisfy the observational constraints, and for which the energetics in different feedback channels are physically plausible. Interestingly, cosmic rays accelerated by SMBHs play an important role in many successful models. However, it is non-trivial to reproduce scaling relations across halo mass, and many model variations produce qualitatively incorrect results regardless of parameter choices. The growth of stellar and BH mass are closely related: for example, over-massive BHs tend to over-quench galaxies. BH mass is most strongly affected by the choice of accretion efficiency in high-mass halos, but by feedback efficiency in low-mass halos. The amount of star formation suppression by SMBH feedback in low-mass halos is determined primarily by the time-integrated feedback energy. For massive galaxies, the "responsiveness" of a model (i.e. how quickly and powerfully the BH responds to gas available for accretion) is an additional important factor for quenching.

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arXiv2022

Rapid disc settling and the transition from bursty to steady star formation in Milky Way-mass galaxies

Recent observations and simulations indicate substantial evolution in the properties of galaxies with time, wherein rotationally-supported and steady thin discs (like those frequently observed in the local universe) emerge from galaxies that are clumpy, irregular, and have bursty star formation rates (SFRs). To better understand the progenitors of local disc galaxies we carry out an analysis of three FIRE-2 simulated galaxies with a mass similar to the Milky Way at redshift z=0. We show that all three galaxies transition from bursty to steady SFRs at a redshift between z=0.5 and z=0.8, and that this transition coincides with a rapid (< ~1 Gyr) emergence of a rotationally-supported interstellar medium (ISM).In the late phase with steady SFR, the rotational energy comprises > ~90% of the total kinetic + thermal energy in the ISM, and is roughly half the gravitational energy. By contrast, during the early phase with bursty star formation, the ISM has a quasi-spheroidal morphology and its energy budget is dominated by quasi-isotropic flows including turbulence and coherent inflows/outflows. This result, that rotational support is subdominant at early times, challenges the common application of equilibrium disc models to the high-redshift progenitors of Milky Way-like galaxies. We further find that the formation of a rotation-supported ISM coincides with the formation of a thermal energy-supported inner circumgalactic medium (CGM). Before this transition, the inner CGM is also supported by turbulence and coherent flows, indicating that at early times there is no clear boundary between the ISM and inner CGM.

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arXiv2022

FIRE-3: Updated Stellar Evolution Models, Yields, & Microphysics and Fitting Functions for Applications in Galaxy Simulations

Increasingly, uncertainties in predictions from galaxy formation simulations (at sub-Milky Way masses) are dominated by uncertainties in stellar evolution inputs. In this paper, we present the full set of updates from the FIRE-2 version of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project code, to the next version, FIRE-3. While the transition from FIRE-1 to FIRE-2 focused on improving numerical methods, here we update the stellar evolution tracks used to determine stellar feedback inputs, e.g. stellar mass-loss (O/B and AGB), spectra (luminosities and ionization rates), and supernova rates (core-collapse and Ia), as well as detailed mass-dependent yields. We also update the low-temperature cooling and chemistry, to enable improved accuracy at $T \lesssim 10^{4}\,$K and densities $n\gg 1\,{\rm cm^{-3}}$, and the meta-galactic ionizing background. All of these synthesize newer empirical constraints on these quantities and updated stellar evolution and yield models from a number of groups, addressing different aspects of stellar evolution. To make the updated models as accessible as possible, we provide fitting functions for all of the relevant updated tracks, yields, etc, in a form specifically designed so they can be directly 'plugged in' to existing galaxy formation simulations. We also summarize the default FIRE-3 implementations of 'optional' physics, including spectrally-resolved cosmic rays and supermassive black hole growth and feedback.

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arXiv2022

A Bayesian Population Model for the Observed Dust Attenuation in Galaxies

Dust plays a pivotal role in determining the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) of galaxies. Yet our understanding of dust attenuation is limited and our observations suffer from the dust-metallicity-age degeneracy in SED fitting (single galaxies), large individual variances (ensemble measurements), and the difficulty in properly dealing with uncertainties (statistical considerations). In this study, we create a population Bayesian model to rigorously account for correlated variables and non-Gaussian error distributions and demonstrate the improvement over a simple Bayesian model. We employ a flexible 5-D linear interpolation model for the parameters that control dust attenuation curves as a function of stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), metallicity, redshift, and inclination. Our setup allows us to determine the complex relationships between dust attenuation and these galaxy properties simultaneously. Using Prospector fits of nearly 30,000 3D-HST galaxies, we find that the attenuation slope ($n$) flattens with increasing optical depth ($τ$), though less so than in previous studies. $τ$ increases strongly with SFR, though when $\log~{\rm SFR}\lesssim 0$, $τ$ remains roughly constant over a wide range of stellar masses. Edge-on galaxies tend to have larger $τ$ than face-on galaxies, but only for $\log~M_*\gtrsim 10$, reflecting the lack of triaxiality for low-mass galaxies. Redshift evolution of dust attenuation is strongest for low-mass, low-SFR galaxies, with higher optical depths but flatter curves at high redshift. Finally, $n$ has a complex relationship with stellar mass, highlighting the intricacies of the star-dust geometry. We have publicly released software (https://github.com/Astropianist/DustE) for users to access our population model.

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arXiv2022

Bursting Bubbles: Clustered Supernova Feedback in Local and High-redshift Galaxies

We compare an analytic model for the evolution of supernova-driven superbubbles with observations of local and high-redshift galaxies, and the properties of intact HI shells in local star-forming galaxies. Our model correctly predicts the presence of superwinds in local star-forming galaxies (e.g., NGC 253) and the ubiquity of outflows near $z \sim 2$. We find that high-redshift galaxies may `capture' 20-50\% of their feedback momentum in the dense ISM (with the remainder escaping into the nearby CGM), whereas local galaxies may contain $\lesssim$10\% of their feedback momentum from the central starburst. Using azimuthally averaged galaxy properties, we predict that most superbubbles stall and fragment \emph{within} the ISM, and that this occurs at, or near, the gas scale height. We find a consistent interpretation in the observed HI bubble radii and velocities, and predict that most will fragment within the ISM, and that those able to break-out originate from short dynamical time regions (where the dynamical time is shorter than feedback timescales). Additionally, we demonstrate that models with constant star cluster formation efficiency per Toomre mass are inconsistent with the occurrence of outflows from high-$z$ starbursts and local circumnuclear regions.

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arXiv2021

Characterization of Two 2mm-detected Optically-Obscured Dusty Star-Forming Galaxies

The 2mm Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA) Survey was designed to detect high redshift ($z\gtrsim4$), massive, dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). Here we present two, likely high redshift sources, identified in the survey whose physical characteristics are consistent with a class of optical/near-infrared (OIR) invisible DSFGs found elsewhere in the literature. We first perform a rigorous analysis of all available photometric data to fit spectral energy distributions and estimate redshifts before deriving physical properties based on our findings. Our results suggest the two galaxies, called MORA-5 and MORA-9, represent two extremes of the "OIR-dark" class of DSFGs. MORA-5 ($z_{\rm phot}=4.3^{+1.5}_{-1.3}$) is a significantly more active starburst with a star-formation rate of 830$^{+340}_{-190}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$ compared to MORA-9 ($z_{\rm phot}=4.3^{+1.3}_{-1.0}$) whose star-formation rate is a modest 200$^{+250}_{-60}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$. Based on the stellar masses (M$_{\star}\approx10^{10-11}$M$_\odot$), space density ($n\sim(5\pm2)\times10^{-6}$Mpc$^{-3}$, which incorporates two other spectroscopically confirmed OIR-dark DSFGs in the MORA sample at $z=4.6$ and $z=5.9$), and gas depletion timescales ($<1$Gyr) of these sources, we find evidence supporting the theory that OIR-dark DSFGs are the progenitors of recently discovered $3<z<4$ massive quiescent galaxies.

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arXiv2021

Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA): 2mm Efficiently Selects the Highest-Redshift Obscured Galaxies

We present the characteristics of 2mm-selected sources from the largest Atacama Large Millimeter and submillimeter Array (ALMA) blank-field contiguous survey conducted to-date, the Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA) survey covering 184arcmin$^2$ at 2mm. Twelve of the thirteen detections above 5$σ$ are attributed to emission from galaxies, eleven of which are dominated by cold dust emission. These sources have a median redshift of $\langle z_{\rm 2mm}\rangle=3.6^{+0.4}_{-0.3}$ primarily based on optical/near-infrared (OIR) photometric redshifts with some spectroscopic redshifts, with 77$\pm$11% of sources at $z>3$ and 38$\pm$12% of sources at $z>4$. This implies that 2mm selection is an efficient method for identifying the highest redshift dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). Lower redshift DSFGs ($z<3$) are far more numerous than those at $z>3$ yet likely to drop out at 2mm. MORA shows that DSFGs with star-formation rates in excess of 300M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$ and relative rarity of $\sim$10$^{-5}$ Mpc$^{-3}$ contribute $\sim$30% to the integrated star-formation rate density between $3 2$. Analysis of MORA sources' spectral energy distributions hint at steeper empirically-measured dust emissivity indices than typical literature studies, with $\langleβ\rangle=2.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$. The MORA survey represents an important step in taking census of obscured star-formation in the Universe's first few billion years, but larger area 2mm surveys are needed to more fully characterize this rare population and push to the detection of the Universe's first dusty galaxies.

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arXiv2021

Characterizing mass, momentum, energy and metal outflow rates of multi-phase galactic winds in the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations

We characterize mass, momentum, energy and metal outflow rates of multi-phase galactic winds in a suite of FIRE-2 cosmological "zoom-in" simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We analyze simulations of low-mass dwarfs, intermediate-mass dwarfs, Milky Way-mass halos, and high-redshift massive halos. Consistent with previous work, we find that dwarfs eject about 100 times more gas from their interstellar medium (ISM) than they form in stars, while this mass "loading factor" drops below one in massive galaxies. Most of the mass is carried by the hot phase ($>10^5$ K) in massive halos and the warm phase ($10^3-10^5$ K) in dwarfs; cold outflows ($<10^3$ K) are negligible except in high-redshift dwarfs. Energy, momentum and metal loading factors from the ISM are of order unity in dwarfs and significantly lower in more massive halos. Hot outflows have $2-5\times$ higher specific energy than needed to escape from the gravitational potential of dwarf halos; indeed, in dwarfs, the mass, momentum, and metal outflow rates increase with radius whereas energy is roughly conserved, indicating swept up halo gas. Burst-averaged mass loading factors tend to be larger during more powerful star formation episodes and when the inner halo is not virialized, but we see effectively no trend with the dense ISM gas fraction. We discuss how our results can guide future controlled numerical experiments that aim to elucidate the key parameters governing galactic winds and the resulting associated preventative feedback.

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arXiv2021

Molecular Line Observations in Two Dusty Star-Forming Galaxies at z = 6.9

SPT0311-58 is the most massive infrared luminous system discovered so far during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of the molecular interstellar medium at z = 6.9, through high-resolution observations of the CO(6-5), CO(7-6), CO(10-9), [CI](2-1), and p-H2O(211-202) lines and dust continuum emission with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). The system consists of a pair of intensely star-forming gravitationally lensed galaxies (labelled West and East). The intrinsic far-infrared luminosity is (16 $\pm$ 4)$\times\rm 10^{12} \ \rm L_{\odot}$ in West and (27 $\pm$ 4)$\times\rm 10^{11} \ \rm L_{\odot}$ in East. We model the dust, CO, and [CI] using non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer models and estimate the intrinsic gas mass to be (5.4 $\pm$ 3.4)$\times\rm 10^{11} \ \rm M_{\odot}$ in West and (3.1 $\pm$ 2.7)$\times\rm 10^{10} \ \rm M_{\odot}$ in East. We find that the CO spectral line energy distribution in West and East are typical of high-redshift sub-millimeter galaxies (SMGs). The CO-to-H2 conversion factor ($α_{CO}$) and the gas depletion time scales estimated from the model are consistent with the high-redshift SMGs in the literature within the uncertainties. We find no evidence of evolution of depletion time with redshift in SMGs at z > 3. This is the most detailed study of molecular gas content of a galaxy in the EoR to-date, with the most distant detection of H2O in a galaxy without any evidence for active galactic nuclei in the literature.

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arXiv2021

Dust-Enshrouded AGN can Dominate Host-Galaxy-Scale Cold-Dust Emission

It is widely assumed that long-wavelength infrared (IR) emission from cold dust (T~20-40K) is a reliable tracer of star formation even in the presence of a bright active galactic nucleus (AGN). Based on radiative transfer (RT) models of clumpy AGN tori, hot dust emission from the torus contributes negligibly to the galaxy spectral energy distribution (SED) at $λ\ga100$ \micron. However, these models do not include AGN heating of host-galaxy-scale diffuse dust, which may have far-IR (FIR) colors comparable to cold diffuse dust heated by stars. To quantify the contribution of AGN heating to host-galaxy-scale cold dust emission at $λ\ga100$ \micron, we perform dust RT calculations on a simulated galaxy merger both including and excluding the bright AGN that it hosts. By differencing the SEDs yielded by RT calculations with and without AGN that are otherwise identical, we quantify the FIR cold dust emission arising solely from re-processed AGN photons. In extreme cases, AGN-heated host-galaxy-scale dust can increase galaxy-integrated FIR flux densities by factors of 2-4; star formation rates calculated from the FIR luminosity assuming no AGN contribution can overestimate the true value by comparable factors. Because the FIR colors of such systems are similar to those of purely star-forming galaxies and redder than torus models, broadband SED decomposition may be insufficient for disentangling the contributions of stars and heavily dust-enshrouded AGN in the most IR-luminous galaxies. We demonstrate how kpc-scale resolved observations can be used to identify deeply dust-enshrouded AGN with cool FIR colors when spectroscopic and/or X-ray detection methods are unavailable.

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arXiv2021

Comprehensive Gas Characterization of a $z= 2.5$ Protocluster: A Cluster Core Caught in the Beginning of Virialization?

In order to connect galaxy clusters to their progenitor protoclusters, we must constrain the star formation histories within their member galaxies and the timescale of virial collapse. In this paper we characterize the complex star-forming properties of a $z=2.5$ protocluster in the COSMOS field using ALMA dust continuum and new VLA CO(1-0) observations of two filaments associated with the structure, sometimes referred to as the "Hyperion" protocluster. We focus in particular on the protocluster "core" which has previously been suggested as the highest redshift bona fide galaxy cluster traced by extended X-ray emission in a stacked Chandra/XMM image. We re-analyze this data and refute these claims, finding that at least 40 $\pm$ 17% of extended X-ray sources of similar luminosity and size at this redshift arise instead from Inverse Compton scattering off recently extinguished radio galaxies rather than intracluster medium. Using ancillary COSMOS data, we also constrain the SEDs of the two filaments' eight constituent galaxies from the rest-frame UV to radio. We do not find evidence for enhanced star formation efficiency in the core and conclude that the constituent galaxies are already massive (M$_{\star} \approx 10^{11} M_{\odot}$), with molecular gas reservoirs $>10^{10} M_{\odot}$ that will be depleted within 200-400 Myr. Finally, we calculate the halo mass of the nested core at $z=2.5$ and conclude that it will collapse into a cluster of 2-9 $\times 10^{14} M_{\odot}$, comparable to the size of the Coma cluster at $z=0$ and accounting for at least 50% of the total estimated halo mass of the extended "Hyperion" structure.

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arXiv2021

Submillimetre galaxies in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations -- an opportunity for constraining feedback models

Submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) have long posed a challenge for theorists, and self-consistently reproducing the properties of the SMG population in a large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation has not yet been achieved. We use a scaling relation derived from previous simulations plus radiative transfer calculations to predict the submm flux densities of simulated SMGs drawn from cosmological simulations from the Illustris and IllustrisTNG projects based on the simulated galaxies' star formation rates (SFRs) and dust masses and compare the predicted number counts with observations. We find that the predicted SMG number counts based on IllustrisTNG are significantly less than observed (more than 1 dex at $S_{850} \gtrsim 4$ mJy). The simulation from the original Illustris project yields more SMGs than IllustrisTNG: the predicted counts are consistent with those observed at both $S_{850} \lesssim 5$ mJy and $S_{850} \gtrsim 9$ mJy and only a factor of $\sim 2$ lower than observed at intermediate flux densities. The redshift distribution of SMGs with $S_{850} > 3$ mJy in IllustrisTNG is consistent with the observed distribution, whereas the Illustris redshift distribution peaks at significantly lower redshift (1.5 vs. 2.8). We demonstrate that IllustrisTNG hosts fewer SMGs than Illustris because in the former, high-mass ($M_{\star} \sim 10^{11} \, \text{M}_{\odot}$) $z \sim 2-3$ galaxies have lower dust masses and SFRs than in Illustris owing to differences in the sub-grid models for stellar or/and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback between the two simulations (we unfortunately cannot isolate the specific cause(s) post hoc). Our results demonstrate that because our method enables predicting SMG number counts in post-processing with a negligible computational expense, SMGs can provide useful constraints for tuning sub-grid models in future large-volume cosmological simulations.

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