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Christopher C. Lovell

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher C. Lovell.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

BIND (Baryonic INpainting with Deep learning): A Field-level Emulator for Galaxy Groups and Clusters

Baryonic feedback is a dominant source of systematic uncertainty for upcoming weak-lensing surveys, but current tools for modeling its effect rely on spherical approximations and density profiles calibrated almost entirely on two-point statistics. We introduce BIND (Baryonic INpainting with Deep learning), a conditional flow-matching model that learns a field-level mapping from dark-matter-only halos to their hydrodynamical counterparts. BIND is trained on halos from the 1024 paired hydrodynamical and dark-matter-only simulations of the CAMELS $50\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ SB35 suite and samples dark matter, gas, and stellar mass fields over redshift across the full 35-dimensional $Λ$CDM and IllustrisTNG galaxy formation parameter space. BIND recovers dark matter, gas, and stellar masses at the percent level, reproduces azimuthally averaged profiles to $\lesssim10\%$ at all radii, and matches halo shape distributions with high fidelity. The learned parameter dependence captures the rank correlations between the generated fields and the subgrid parameters, and the field-level response to individual parameter variations is recovered in both sign and morphology. Halo mass is never supplied as conditioning, yet the baryon fraction, stellar-to-halo mass relation, inter-component scaling relations, and the joint covariance of their residuals are all reproduced. We finally show that, applied halo-by-halo to a $(50\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc})^3$ $N$-body volume with $512^3$ particles, BIND reproduces the projected matter power spectrum suppression to the accuracy ceiling set by pasting in the hydrodynamical halos themselves, in minutes on one GPU. We release the trained BIND models and all generated halos as open-source tools. A companion paper extends BIND to thermodynamic fields and non-Gaussian weak-lensing statistics.

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Introducing sapphire: Towards Hybrid Physics-Informed, Data-Driven Modeling of Galaxy Formation

Semi-analytic models (SAMs) have been treating galaxy populations as dynamical systems for $\gtrsim50$ years, but their evolution equations remain poorly constrained. We introduce sapphire, a modular, automatically differentiable, GPU-accelerated SAM written in JAX. For the first time, we compute exact Jacobian and Hessian matrices of a galaxy formation SAM, using the Pandya et al. (2023) nonlinear differential equation system as an example. These allow efficient, interpretable local and global sensitivity analyses, which reveal that supernova energy loading is the key astrophysical parameter. We use gradient descent and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to perform comprehensive mock parameter recovery tests. These indicate that the $z=0$ stellar-to-halo-mass relation alone does not contain enough information to infer many astrophysical parameters. Using observations of star-forming galaxies from the MaNGA survey and the Behroozi et al. (2019) empirical model as one baseline, we derive multiple posteriors assuming different combinations of data, including $z=0$ interstellar medium gas fractions and metallicities. The inferred physical parameters suggest that galaxies self-regulate their star formation primarily through preventative rather than ejective feedback, though this remains uncertain due to the lack of satellite galaxies, black holes and multi-phase galactic atmosphere physics. Both Fisher and HMC forecasts demonstrate the potential of sapphire to enable precision inference for galaxy formation and cosmology in a hybrid physics-informed, data-driven way, but more work is needed to expand its library of models and methods. We make sapphire publicly available at https://github.com/virajpandya/sapphire.

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Stellar photoionisation modelling in SYNTHESIZER

Emission from photoionised gas surrounding young stellar populations ($H\text{II}$ regions) provides critical diagnostics of the physical conditions in star forming galaxies. This emission constrains the gas properties, the nature of ionising sources, and generates essential features for determining galaxy redshifts. To leverage spectroscopic observations to test galaxy formation models, it is essential to incorporate these emissions into synthetic datasets. Here, we present the integration of photoionised gas emission into the SYNTHESIZER package (https://synthesizer-project.github.io) and demonstrate its application. We quantify the impact of key modelling assumptions - including stellar population synthesis models, initial mass functions, ionisation parameter, gas density, geometry, abundance pattern, elemental depletion, and dust - on spectral diagnostics. Furthermore, we demonstrate the versatility of SYNTHESIZER through its application in different scenarios ranging from exploring emission in toy parametric models to large-volume cosmological simulations with realistic star formation and metal enrichment histories. Taken together, SYNTHESIZER provides a flexible, physically motivated framework to model stellar and nebular emissions, serving as a vital link between theory and observations in the era of next-generation spectroscopic missions.

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A Pixel-by-Pixel Path to Population III Discovery with JWST

The identification of the first generation of metal-free stars, known as Population III (Pop~III), remains a primary goal of modern observational astronomy. While JWST has discovered an abundance of UV-bright galaxies at $z > 10$, distinguishing primordial stellar populations from early metal-enriched systems is a significant challenge. We present an end-to-end framework that combines physically motivated forward modelling from Yggdrasil primordial models with simulation-based inference (SBI) to test Pop~III detectability in JWST-like observations, from isolated sources to realistic overlap with enriched (Pop~II) hosts. Our analysis spans several Pop~III initial mass function (IMF) assumptions, nebular configurations, and Lyman-$α$ transmission scenarios, while mocking the noise properties and filter coverage of the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES). We find that unresolved or integrated analyses are strongly limited by host-galaxy contamination, whereas spatially resolved, pixel-based model comparison substantially improves recoverability. In our resolved experiments, detectability is highest for young and massive Pop~III clumps in nearly-quenched hosts at larger projected separations from their centres, reaching $\sim 90\%$ recovery in favourable configurations, while older and centrally embedded clumps are rarely recovered. Applying the framework to a literature candidate yields spatially differentiated behaviour: a compact blue companion is preferentially described by Pop~III-like models, while the host is better explained by fiducial Pop~I/II models. Our pipeline provides practical criteria for future searches and motivates imaging-first, spectroscopy-assisted strategies for identifying primordial stellar populations in JWST data.

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Cloudy-Maraston: Integrating nebular continuum and line emission with the Maraston stellar population synthesis models

The James Webb Space Telescope has ushered in an era of abundant high-redshift observations of young stellar populations characterized by strong emission lines, motivating us to integrate nebular emission into the new Maraston stellar population model which incorporates the latest Geneva stellar evolutionary tracks for massive stars with rotation. We use the photoionization code Cloudy to obtain the emergent nebular continuum and line emission for a range of modelling parameters, then compare our results to observations on various emission line diagnostic diagrams. We carry out a detailed comparison with several other models in the literature assuming different input physics, including modified prescriptions for stellar evolution and the inclusion of binary stars, and find close agreement in the H$\rm β$, H$\rm α$, [N II]$λ6583$, and [S II]$λ6731$ luminosities between the models. However, we find significant differences in lines with high ionization energies, such as He II$λ$1640 and [O III]$λ5007$, due to large variations in the hard ionizing photon production rates. The models differ by a maximum of $\hat{Q}_{\rm [O III]λ5007} = \rm 6 \times 10^9 \; s^{-1} \, M_{\odot}^{-1}$, where these differences are mostly caused by the assumed stellar rotation and effective temperatures for the Wolf Rayet phase. Interestingly, rotation and uncorrected effective temperatures in our single star population models alone generate [O III] ionizing photon production rates higher than models including binary stars with ages between 1 to 8 Myr. These differences highlight the dependence of derived properties from SED fitting on the assumed model, as well as the sensitivity of predictions from cosmological simulations.

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Learning the Universe with the 2nd Generation of CAMELS: Varying 35 parameters of the IllustrisTNG model in (50Mpc/h)^3 boxes

We present a new set of 1,192 cosmological simulations as part of the CAMELS project, in which a space of 35 cosmological, astrophysical, and numerical parameters is explored around the fiducial IllustrisTNG model. The volume of each of these simulations is (50Mpc/h)^3, eight times larger than that of previous CAMELS simulations. This provides lower sample variance as well as access to more massive halos and more diverse environments. We focus this work on exploring the advantages these differences provide for parameter inference powered by neural networks. We generate training sets based on the matter power spectra, projected maps of the volumes, graphs representing galaxy spatial distributions, and thermodynamical properties of massive halos. We employ multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, graph neural networks, and Gaussian processes, respectively, to extract information on the simulation parameters from these inputs while comparing systematically to analogous results from our previous generation of (25Mpc/h)^3 simulations. We generally find that the new, larger volumes produce tighter marginal constraints on the parameters, to degrees that vary between the different inputs. The improvements, however, scale more weakly than with the square root of the increase in the amount of data (i.e., physical volume). We interpret this as originating either from information loss due to mode coupling or from complex degeneracies in parameter space. We also discuss the effects on statistics of the intergalactic medium temperature from four new parameters that are varied in these simulations, which control the amplitude and timing of the ionizing background radiation. We publicly release the simulation outputs and ancillary data at https://camels.readthedocs.io.

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Learning the Universe: The Structure of Dust Attenuation Curves in Galaxy Simulations

Dust attenuation is a major source of systematic uncertainty in both SED fitting and forward modeling of galaxy populations, yet the functional form used to parameterize attenuation curves has received surprisingly little systematic scrutiny. Particular unanswered questions include: how many free parameters are genuinely needed, and which analytic expression best captures the full diversity of attenuation curve shapes in galaxies across cosmic time? Using a large library of synthetic attenuation curves from TNG50 and TNG100 galaxies post-processed with the SKIRT radiative transfer code using three dust mixtures (Milky Way, SMC, and stellar dust), we show via Information-Ordered Bottleneck analysis that exactly four parameters are needed to capture the diversity of attenuation curves. Guided by this result, we use symbolic regression to derive a new, interpretable four-parameter attenuation model that outperforms existing parameterizations in recovering both attenuation curves and emergent fluxes across all dust mixtures explored. The four parameters of this model have clear physical interpretations: UV bump strength, FUV slope, UV-bump transition curvature, and large-scale optical slope. Their correlations with galaxy properties are primarily regulated by star-formation rate surface density, metallicity, and stellar-dust geometry, and are largely preserved across dust mixtures -- except for the bump-sensitive parameters, which retain a stronger dependence on grain composition. We further provide symbolic-regression scaling relations linking all four parameters to quasi-observable galaxy properties, offering a physically motivated route to assign realistic attenuation curves in SED fitting and forward modeling without radiative-transfer calculations.

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First Light and Reionization Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XXII: UV-dust spatial offsets at the Epoch of Reionisation

Recent observations have revealed intriguing offsets between the UV and FIR emission in high redshift galaxies. In this study, we use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (\textsc{Flares}) to compute the spatial offset of ultraviolet (UV) and far-infrared (FIR) centres for a statistical sample (6890) of massive (M$_{\star}\, \gtrsim10^{9} \,{\rm M_{\odot}}$) high redshift galaxies ($z \in [5,10]$). The galaxies are post-processed with the \textsc{skirt} radiative transfer code, to obtain the full spectral energy distribution and surface brightness profile. We simulate \textit{James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)} Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam; rest-frame 1500 Å, $ \approx 0.031 ''$ resolution) and ALMA rest-frame 158 \um\ ($\approx$ $0.3''$ angular resolution) observations of the galaxies and then calculate the distance between the UV-FIR centres to analyse which physical processes drive the observed UV - FIR spatial offset. We find that $\sim16.23\%$ of galaxies exhibit spatial offsets of $\geq 2.5$ kpc between their UV and FIR emission peaks. We establish that the spatial offsets do not correlate with stellar mass, UV/FIR luminosity, and size. Offsets also do not correlate with AGN feedback or with large-scale environment or merger history. Galaxies with significant offsets preferentially have bluer UV slopes ($-2.5<β<-1.5$), consistent with recent star formation and dust-attenuated cores displacing the observed UV centroid. They show an accelerated star formation history, forming half their $z=5$ stellar mass $\sim$0.1 Gyr earlier than galaxies without offsets. These galaxies are enriched earlier than galaxies without an offset and show enhanced stellar metallicities, indicating a transition to an outward growth at higher redshifts ($z \geq 6$).

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The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

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Efficiently emulating distribution functions in gigaparsec volumes for varying cosmological parameters

We present a new method for emulating the halo mass function (HMF) and other distribution functions in large effective volumes, down to low halo masses, whilst simultaneously modifying large ranges of parameters, for a fraction of the cost of traditional periodic cosmological simulations. We demonstrate the method by selecting small regions, $V \sim (50 \,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc})^3$, with a range of overdensities from the Quijote suite, consisting of tens of thousands of $(1 \,h^{-1}{\rm Gpc})^3$ $N$-body simulation volumes run with varying $Λ$CDM parameters. We train a differentiable emulator, conditioned on the overdensity of the region and these global parameters, to reproduce the halo mass function in these regions. We then successfully recover the global distribution of halo masses of the entire box by integrating over the overdensity distribution. Our approach uses just $\sim\,$0.026% of the original simulation volume, and suggests that suites of targeted `zoom' simulations, extracted from low resolution parent volumes, can be used to emulate large volume simulations at a fraction of the computational cost, whilst simultaneously pushing the dynamic range to much lower masses than can be achieved in periodic simulations. We discuss emulation of other key dark matter and baryonic distribution functions, as well as higher order statistics, with implications for the interpretation of upcoming wide field surveys on observatories such as Euclid, Roman and Rubin.

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The Nature of High-Redshift Massive Quiescent Galaxies -- Searching for RUBIES-UDS-QG-z7 in FLARES

RUBIES-UDS-QG-z7 (RQG) is the earliest massive quiescent galaxy identified to date, inferred to have formed its abundant stellar mass in a single burst that ceases rapidly before $z\sim8$. An object of such extreme nature challenges our understanding of galaxy formation, requiring rapid growth and quenching mechanisms only $0.6 \ \rm{Gyr}$ after the Big Bang and implying number densities $2 \ \rm{dex}$ higher than currently predicted by simulations. We use synthetic observables to identify analogous systems within the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) and find two massive galaxies ($M_{\ast}>10^{9} \ \mathrm{M_{\odot}}$) dominated by rapidly quenched bursts. One of these demonstrates excellent agreement with the inferred physical properties of RQG and implies a number density of analogous systems $\log_{10}(\mathrm{N_{Q}} \ / \ \mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}) = -7.92^{\ +0.52}_{\ -0.76}$. Beyond demonstrating that the current FLARES model is capable of producing RQG-like systems, these analogues provide a laboratory within which to study the underlying physics. Their active galactic nuclei (AGN) heat and expel gas, inducing rapid quenching and preventing timely rejuvenation. This causes above-average chemical enrichment at a given stellar mass, with super solar levels predicted for RQG. These metallicities are underestimated by spectral energy distribution fitting and we show that $α$-enhancement cannot be solely responsible. Degeneracies with age and dust attenuation appear the more likely causes. Tensions between observed and simulated number densities can be alleviated in part by considering systematics, but adjustments to AGN feedback, such as allowing super-Eddington accretion rates, may be required for full agreement.

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Interpreting nebular emission lines in the high-redshift Universe

One of the most remarkable outcomes from \textit{JWST} has been the exquisite UV-optical spectroscopic data for galaxies in the high-redshift Universe ($z \geq 5$), enabling the use of various nebular emission lines to infer conditions of the interstellar medium. In this work, we assess the reliability of commonly used diagnostics for estimating the star formation rate (SFR), the ionising photon production efficiency ($ξ_{\rm ion}$), and the gas-phase oxygen abundance, focusing on dust corrections based on A$_{\rm V}$ (V-band attenuation) and the Balmer decrement. Using forward-modelled galaxy spectra from idealised toy models and the FLARES cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, we examine how variations in stellar populations and star-dust geometry affect these diagnostics. We find that the clumpy nature of \flares\ galaxies lead to strong internal variation in age, metallicity and dust attenuation, biasing the inferred quantities. In FLARES the SFRD at the bright-end of the SFR function can be underestimated by as much as $30\%$ compared to the true values. While the intrinsic $ξ_{\rm ion}$ in FLARES is nearly constant with stellar mass, estimates derived from H$α$ or H$β$ can be underestimated by more than 0.5 dex at high stellar masses ($>10^{9.5}$ M$_{\odot}$), introducing an artificial declining trend. Similarly, the dust-corrected mass-metallicity relation inferred from line ratios is significantly flatter than the intrinsic mass-weighted relation. These systematic offsets arise from the coupling between heterogeneous stellar populations and non-uniform star-dust geometry and depend on the diagnostic and the dust-correction method employed. No single dust-correction approach yields unbiased estimates of all quantities simultaneously, highlighting the need for forward modelling and comparisons in observed space for robust high-redshift inference.

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Cosmological back-reaction of baryons on dark matter in the CAMELS simulations

Baryonic processes such as radiative cooling and feedback from massive stars and active galactic nuclei (AGN) directly redistribute baryons in the Universe but also indirectly redistribute dark matter due to changes in the gravitational potential. In this work, we investigate this "back-reaction" of baryons on dark matter using thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project, including parameter variations in the SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, ASTRID, and Swift-EAGLE galaxy formation models. Matching haloes to corresponding N-body (dark matter-only) simulations, we find that virial masses decrease owing to the ejection of baryons by feedback. Relative to N-body simulations, halo profiles show an increased dark matter density in the center (due to radiative cooling) and a decrease in density farther out (due to feedback), with both effects being strongest in SIMBA (> 450% increase at r < 0.01 Rvir). The clustering of dark matter strongly responds to changes in baryonic physics, with dark matter power spectra in some simulations from each model showing as much as 20% suppression or increase in power at k ~ 10 h/Mpc relative to N-body simulations. We find that the dark matter back-reaction depends intrinsically on cosmology (Omega_m and sigma_8) at fixed baryonic physics, and varies strongly with the details of the feedback implementation. These results emphasize the need for marginalizing over uncertainties in baryonic physics to extract cosmological information from weak lensing surveys as well as their potential to constrain feedback models in galaxy evolution.

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CAMELS Environments: The Impact of Local Neighbours on Galaxy Evolution across the SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, ASTRID, and Swift-EAGLE Simulations

Internal feedback from massive stars and active galactic nuclei (AGN) play a key role in galaxy evolution, but external environmental effects can also strongly influence galaxies. We investigate the impact of environment on galaxy evolution, and its dependence on baryonic physics implementation, using Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) spanning a wide range of stellar and AGN feedback implementations in the SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, ASTRID, and Swift-EAGLE galaxy formation models. We show that satellite galaxies are significantly affected by the environment in all simulation models, with their gas fraction and star formation rate (SFR) suppressed in overdense regions compared to similar mass satellites in underdense environments at $z=0$. Central galaxies are less sensitive to environment but tend to show lower gas fraction and SFR in overdense regions at low stellar mass, transitioning to higher gas fraction and SFR for massive galaxies in higher-density environments. Halo baryon fraction ($f_{\rm B}$) and circumgalactic medium mass fraction ($f_{\rm CGM}$) at $z=0$ show clear environmental effects. In SIMBA, low-mass haloes in overdense regions have systematically lower $f_{\rm B}$ and $f_{\rm CGM}$ at fixed halo mass, while Swift-EAGLE haloes in overdense regions have systematically higher $f_{\rm B}$ and $f_{\rm CGM}$ across the full halo mass range, and IllustrisTNG and ASTRID show opposite trends at the low and high mass ends. Environmental effects can flip at higher redshift, with SFR and $f_{\rm B}$ increasing with local density in low-mass haloes before quenching at an increasing overdensity threshold. Our results demonstrate that the impact of environment on galaxy evolution depends significantly on galaxy formation model, and higher-density environments can either suppress or enhance star formation depending on galaxy mass and cosmic epoch.

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A new constraint on the $y$-distortion with FIRAS: implications for feedback models in galaxy formation and cosmic shear measurements

The $y$-type distortion of the blackbody spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation probes the pressure of the gas trapped in galaxy groups and clusters. We reanalyze archival data of the FIRAS instrument with an improved astrophysical foreground cleaning technique, and measure a mean $y$-distortion of $\langle y\rangle = (1.2\pm 2.0) \times 10^{-6}$ ($\langle y\rangle\lesssim 5.2\times 10^{-6}$ at 95\% C.L.), a factor of $\sim 3$ tighter than the original FIRAS results. This measurement directly rules out many models of baryonic feedback as implemented in cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, mostly using information in objects with mass $M\lesssim 10^{14} {\rm M}_{\odot}$. We discuss its implications for the analysis of cosmic shear and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect data, and future spectral distortion experiments.

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First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XX: Comparing semi-analytic models at high-redshift

We explore how the choice of galaxy formation model affects the predicted properties of high-redshift galaxies. Using the FLARES zoom resimulation strategy, we compare the EAGLE hydrodynamics model and the GALFORM, L-Galaxies, SC-SAM and SHARK semi-analytic models (SAMs) at $5\leq z \leq 12$. The first part of our analysis examines the stellar mass functions, stellar-to-halo mass relations, star formation rates, and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties predicted by the different models. Comparisons are made with observations, where relevant. We find general agreement between the range of predicted and observed stellar mass functions. The model predictions differ considerably when it comes to SMBH properties, with GALFORM and SHARK predicting between 1.5-3 dex more massive SMBHs ($M_{\rm BH}>10^6\ {\rm M_\odot}$) than L-Galaxies and SC-SAM, depending on redshift. The second half of our analysis focuses on passive galaxies. We show that in L-Galaxies and SC-SAM, environmental quenching of satellites is the prevalent quenching mechanism, with active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback having little effect at the redshifts probed. On the other hand, $\sim40\%$ of passive galaxies predicted by GALFORM and SHARK are quenched by AGN feedback at $z=5$. The SAMs are an interesting contrast to the EAGLE model, in which AGN feedback is essential for the formation of passive galaxies, in both satellites and centrals, even at high redshift.

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Flexible Simulation Based Inference for Galaxy Photometric Fitting with Synthesizer

We introduce Synference, a new, flexible Python framework for galaxy SED fitting using simulation-based inference (SBI). Synference leverages the Synthesizer package for flexible forward-modelling of galaxy SEDs and integrates the LtU-ILI package to ensure best practices in model training and validation. In this work we demonstrate Synference by training a neural posterior estimator on $10^6$ simulated galaxies, based on a flexible 8-parameter physical model, to infer galaxy properties from 14-band HST and JWST photometry. We validate this model, demonstrating excellent parameter recovery (e.g. R$^2>$0.99 for M$_\star$) and accurate posterior calibration against nested sampling results. We apply our trained model to 3,088 spectroscopically-confirmed galaxies in the JADES GOODS-South field. The amortized inference is exceptionally fast, having nearly fixed cost per posterior evaluation and processing the entire sample in $\sim$3 minutes on a single CPU (18 galaxies/CPU/sec), a $\sim$1700$\times$ speedup over traditional nested sampling or MCMC techniques. We demonstrate Synference's ability to simultaneously infer photometric redshifts and physical parameters, and highlight its utility for rapid Bayesian model comparison by demonstrating systematic stellar mass differences between two commonly used stellar population synthesis models. Synference is a powerful, scalable tool poised to maximise the scientific return of next-generation galaxy surveys.

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Think inside the box: cosmic variance and large-scale conformity of high-redshift massive galaxies in the FLAMINGO simulations

We use the highest-resolution FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulation to quantify cosmic variance and large-scale coherence in the evolution of massive galaxies at high redshift. FLAMINGO combines a $(1\,\mathrm{cGpc})^3$ volume with baryonic resolution sufficient to identify ${\gtrsim}\,10^3$ independent JWST-like survey volumes of $(100\,\mathrm{cMpc})^3$, providing unprecedented statistics to characterize the extremes of cosmic variance. At $z\,{\simeq}\,6$, the total variance in the number of haloes with $M_{200}\,{\simeq}\,10^{11.5}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ (or $M_\ast\,{\simeq}\,10^{10}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$) is 2--3 times the Poisson expectation, while this ratio decreases with redshift. Similarly, at $z\,{\gtrsim}\,4$, the variance in the most massive halo per JWST-like field is twice the Poisson prediction. We find a pronounced large-scale \emph{conformity}: in volumes ranked by the stellar mass of their most massive galaxy ($M_{\ast,\mathrm{max}}$), the stellar-to-halo mass relation and star-formation efficiency are coherently elevated or suppressed throughout the full $(100\,\mathrm{cMpc})^3$ volume. When accounting for galaxies outside the volume, this signal persists only to radii $\lesssim 50\,\mathrm{cMpc}$, demonstrating that the detectable conformity is enhanced by the survey footprint. Moreover, $M_{\ast,\mathrm{max}}$ is a better predictor of the volume-wide efficiency of massive galaxies than the total number counts, which mainly trace clustering. Finally, the stellar fraction of the most massive galaxies peaks at $f_\ast\,{=}\,M_\ast\,/\,(M_{200}f_{\rm b,cosmic})\,{\simeq}\,0.2$ at $z\,{\simeq}\,5$, with a narrower dispersion in $f_\ast$ at fixed redshift and stronger redshift evolution than commonly assumed. These results show that both cosmic variance and footprint-confined conformity must be modelled when interpreting early massive galaxy populations in JWST fields.

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