arXiv subjects

Christopher D. Fassnacht

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher D. Fassnacht.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TDCOSMO 2026: A 3% measurement of the Hubble constant from strong lensing and stellar kinematics

We present cosmological constraints from 11 strongly lensed quasars with measured time delays (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2026 sample). In addition to expanding the sample, we improve many aspects of our blind analysis with respect to our 2025 analysis. Among other improvements, spatially resolved kinematics are available for nine systems, including six with JWST-NIRSpec, compared to one in 2025; for three lens models, JWST-NIRCam images now replace HST; axisymmetric dynamical modeling is applied directly to the spatially resolved data, instead of an axisymmetric correction factor applied to spherical models; and the line-of-sight convergence is now based on the Euclid Flagship simulations instead of the Millennium Simulation. Our baseline and primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with a prior on $Ω_{\rm m}$ from the DES-Dovekie supernova sample. In the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmology, we find $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$, a 3.3% uncertainty that accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $Λ$CDM to 3.0%. Using the DESI-DR2 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihood instead of DES-Dovekie yields fully consistent results. We also present constraints in the open $Λ$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_ϕ$CDM cosmologies; the TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all of them. The combination of the TDCOSMO+SLACS+SL2S likelihood with those from DESI-DR2 and DES-Dovekie disfavors $w=-1$ at the $2.3$-$2.5σ$ level in all three dark energy extensions that we tested. We find, e.g., $w_0=-0.88^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ in $w_ϕ$CDM and $w_0 = -0.85^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ in $w_0w_a$CDM, while $w_a = -0.48^{+0.46}_{-0.44}$ remains consistent with zero.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays

We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) in flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$ is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between $H_0$ measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' $H_0$ measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on $Ω_{\rm m}$ with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7$σ$ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7$σ$ level.

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arXiv2026

MAGNUS II: Rotational support of massive early-type galaxies decreased over the past 7 billion years

Understanding how the internal kinematics of massive galaxies evolve is key to constraining the physical processes that drive their assembly. We investigate the evolution of rotational support in massive ($\log M_{\ast}/M_{\odot} \geq 10.6$) early-type galaxies (ETGs) over the past $\sim$7 Gyr. We use MUSE integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) data for 212 ETGs at intermediate redshift ($0.25 < z < 0.75$) from the MAGNUS sample. We compare their kinematics to a carefully matched local sample of 787 ETGs ($z \leq 0.05$) from the MaNGA survey. Using the specific stellar angular momentum proxy, $λ_R$, we quantify the balance between ordered rotation and random motions. We derive intrinsic $λ_R$ values by applying a uniform correction for seeing and point-spread function (PSF) effects to both samples. We find a significant evolutionary trend: the intermediate-redshift ETGs are systematically more rotationally supported than their local counterparts. The median PSF-corrected $λ_R$ for the MAGNUS sample is $0.48 \pm 0.05$, substantially higher than the median of $0.34 \pm 0.03$ for the matched MaNGA sample. This corresponds to a positive slope in the $λ_R-z$ relation of $\mathrm{d} λ_R / \mathrm{d} z = 0.3 \pm 0.04$ for the combined sample. The decline in rotational support is most pronounced for the most massive galaxies ($\log M_{\ast}/M_{\odot} > 11.3$). Our results provide robust evidence that massive ETGs have undergone significant kinematic evolution, losing angular momentum as they evolve towards the present day, consistent with theoretical models where processes such as dry mergers play a crucial role in shaping the dynamical state of galaxies.

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arXiv2026

MAGNUS I: A MUSE-DEEP Sample of Early-type Galaxies at Intermediate Redshift

We present a sample of 213 early-type galaxies (ETGs) at redshifts $0.25 < z < 0.75$. We combine deep integral-field spectroscopy from the MUSE-DEEP survey with high-resolution HST imaging to study the structure, kinematics, and stellar populations of these galaxies. We measure spatially resolved stellar kinematics and use the specific angular momentum proxy, $λ_R$, to classify galaxies into fast and slow rotators. We find a slow rotator fraction consistent with local Universe samples, suggesting little evolution in the massive ETG population since $z \sim 1$. The kinematic and photometric axes of fast rotators are generally well-aligned, similar to their local counterparts. We find that global stellar population properties, such as age, metallicity, and mass-to-light ratio ($M_*/L$), correlate strongly with the central velocity dispersion ($σ_\mathrm{e}$), following trends established for local ETGs. Slow rotators are typically more massive, have higher $σ_\mathrm{e}$, and are more metal-rich than fast rotators. Our findings indicate that the fundamental structural, kinematic, and stellar population scaling relations of massive ETGs were already in place by $z \sim 0.75$, suggesting their evolutionary pathways have remained stable over the last $\sim 7$ Gyr.

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arXiv2026

TDCOSMO. XXIII. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the doubly lensed quasar HE1104-1805

Time-delay cosmography leverages strongly lensed quasars to measure the Universe's current expansion rate, H_0, independently from other methods. While the latest TDCOSMO results relied mainly on quadruply lensed quasars, doubly lensed systems are far more common and offer precise time delays, potentially enlarging the usable sample by a factor of five and enabling percent-level constraints on H_0. We present the first TDCOSMO analysis of a doubly imaged source, HE1104-1805, including the measurement of the four necessary ingredients. First, by combining 17 years of data from the SMARTS, Euler and WFI telescopes, we measure a time delay of 176.3\pm 10.8 days. Second, using MUSE data, we extract stellar velocity dispersion measurements in three radial bins with up to 5% precision. Third, employing F160W HST imaging for lens modelling and marginalising over various modelling choices, we measure the Fermat potential difference between the images. Fourth, using wide-field imaging, we measure the convergence added by objects not included in the lens modelling. Hence, we measure the time delay distance and the angular diameter distance to the deflector, favouring a power-law mass model over a baryonic and dark matter composite model. The measurement was performed blindly and yielded H_0 = 64.2^{+5.8}_{-5.0} x $λ_{int} km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}, where λ_{int} is the internal mass sheet degeneracy parameter. This is in agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 milestone and its precision for λ_{int}=1 is comparable to that obtained with the best-observed quadruply lensed quasars (4-6%). This work is a stepping stone towards a precise measurement of H_0 using a large sample of doubly lensed quasars, supplementing the current sample. The next TDCOSMO milestone paper will include this system in its hierarchical analysis, constraining λ_{int} and H_0 jointly with multiple lenses.

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arXiv2026

TDCOSMO XXIV. First spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy obtained using JWST-NIRSpec to improve time-delay cosmography

Spatially resolved stellar kinematics has become a key ingredient in time-delay cosmography to break the mass-sheet degeneracy in the mass profile and in turn provide a precise constraint on the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters. In this paper, we present the first measurements of 2D resolved stellar kinematics for the lens galaxy in the quadruply lensed quasar system RXJ1131$-$1231 using integral field spectroscopy from JWST's Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec), marking the first such measurement conducted with JWST. In extracting robust kinematic measurements from this first-of-its-kind dataset, we have made methodological improvements both in the data reduction and kinematic extraction. In our kinematic extraction procedure, we performed joint modeling of the lens galaxy, the quasar, and its host galaxy's contributions in the spectra to deblend the lens galaxy component and robustly constrain its stellar kinematics. Our improved methodological frameworks are released as software pipelines for future use: squirrel, for extracting stellar kinematics, and RegalJumper, for JWST-NIRSpec data reduction. We incorporated additional artifact cleaning beyond the standard JWST pipeline. We compared our measured stellar kinematics from the JWST NIRSpec with previously obtained ground-based measurements from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager integral field unit and find that the two datasets are statistically consistent at a $\sim$1.1$σ$ confidence level. Our measured kinematics will be used in a future study to improve the precision of the Hubble constant measurement.

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arXiv2026

MAGNUS III: Mild evolution of the total density slope in massive early-type galaxies since z$\sim$1 from dynamical modeling of MUSE integral-field stellar kinematics

We investigate the total mass density slope evolution in massive early-type galaxies (ETGs) over the last 6.5 billion years ($0 < z < 0.75$). We perform a detailed dynamical analysis of approximately 200 ETGs spanning the redshift range $0.24 < z < 0.75$, utilizing spatially resolved stellar kinematics derived from high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) MUSE-DEEP spectroscopy and surface brightness models from high-resolution HST imaging. We constrain mass distributions using the Jeans Anisotropic Modeling (JAM) technique coupled with Multi-Gaussian Expansion (MGE) method. To rigorously constrain evolutionary trends, we combine this intermediate-redshift dataset with a local ETG sample ($z \sim 0.05$) from the MaNGA survey. We adopt dynamical constraints for the local sample derived using an identical homogeneous methodology, ensuring a strictly consistent comparison. We found that the total density profiles of the intermediate-redshift ETG sample are approximately isothermal and exhibit a median mass-weighted total density slope, $<γ_{\rm T}>=2.19 \pm 0.01$ at $ =0.44$, which is shallower than the local baseline of $<γ_{\rm T}> = 2.26 \pm 0.01$ at $ =0.04$. This structural shift corresponds to a redshift gradient of $\mathrm{d} γ_{\rm T}/\mathrm{d} z \approx -0.20 \pm 0.03$, detected at $\sim$5-$σ$ significance. We demonstrate that this trend is robust against model assumptions and persists even when restricting the analysis to high-velocity dispersion systems ($σ_e > 150$ km/s). Our findings are consistent with previous lensing-based studies and in tension with cosmological simulations. The observed steepening suggests that dissipative processes, such as gas-rich accretion and mergers, must play a non-negligible role in the late-stage assembly of massive ETGs.

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arXiv2025

TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from 8 strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for 5 lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RXJ1131-1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and 4 from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors' mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter (CDM), we find $H_0=71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $Λ$CDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open $Λ$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_ϕ$CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.

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arXiv2025

SHARP -- IX. The dense, low-mass perturbers in B1938+666 and J0946+1006: implications for cold and self-interacting dark matter

We present an extended analysis of the gravitational lens systems SDSS J0946+1006 and JVAS B1938+666. We focus on the properties of two low-mass dark matter haloes previously detected in these systems and compare them with predictions from different dark matter models. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the object H detected in J0946+1006 is a dark-matter-dominated subhalo. Object A, in B1938+666, is a foreground halo at $z = 0.13\pm0.07$, contradicting previous analyses which suggested this object to be located either within or at higher redshift than the lens. Given the new redshift for this object, we update the 3$σ$ upper limit on its luminosity to $L_V < 6.3 \times 10^5 {(z/0.13)}^2 L_{V,\odot}$. By selecting central galaxies from the TNG50 hydrodynamical simulation, we find that analogues with projected mass density profiles around the robust radius of $\sim$ 91 pc and luminosities consistent with detection A can be found, although they lie near the edge of the halo distribution in the relevant mass and redshift ranges. We conclude, therefore, that this object is an atypical but possible event in $Λ$CDM. The projected mass density profile of both detections over the well-constrained range of radii may be consistent with expectations from SIDM gravothermal fluid model if the effective self-interaction cross-section $σ_{c,0}/m_{\rm{dm}}$ is of order $300 \ \rm{cm}^2 g^{-1}$ or larger.

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arXiv2024

Detecting low-mass haloes with strong gravitational lensing II: constraints on the density profiles of two detected subhaloes

Strong gravitational lensing can detect the presence of low-mass haloes and subhaloes through their effect on the surface brightness of lensed arcs. We carry out an extended analysis of the density profiles and mass distributions of two detected subhaloes, intending to determine if their properties are consistent with the predictions of the cold dark matter (CDM) model. We analyse two gravitational lensing systems in which the presence of two low-mass subhaloes has been previously reported: SDSSJ0946+1006 and JVASB1938+66. We model these detections assuming four different models for their density profiles and compare our results with predictions from the IllustrisTNG50-1 simulation. We find that the detected subhaloes are well-modelled by steep inner density slopes, close to or steeper than isothermal. The NFW profile thus needs extremely high concentrations to reproduce the observed properties, which are outliers of the CDM predictions. We also find a characteristic radius within which the best-fitting density profiles predict the same enclosed mass. We conclude that the lens modelling can constrain this quantity more robustly than the inner slope. We find that the diversity of subhalo profiles in TNG50, consistent with tidally stripping and baryonic effects, is able to match the observed steep inner slopes, somewhat alleviating the tension reported by previous works even if the detections are not well fit by the typical subhalo. However, while we find simulated analogues of the detection in B1938+666, the stellar content required by simulations to explain the central density of the detection in J0946+1006 is in tension with the upper limit in luminosity estimated from the observations. New detections will increase our statistical sample and help us reveal more about the density profiles of these objects and the dark matter content of the Universe.

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arXiv2024

TDCOSMO. XVI. Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the Lensed Quasar WGD$\,$2038$-$4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$). The TDCOSMO collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038-4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain $D_{Δt} = 1.68^{+0.40}_{-0.38}$ Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be $H_{0} = 65^{+23}_{-14}\, \rm km\ s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.

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arXiv2024

TDCOSMO XV: Population Analysis of Lines of Sight of 25 Strong Galaxy-Galaxy Lenses with Extreme Value Statistics

Time-Delay Cosmography is a technique for measuring $H_0$ with strong gravitational lensing. It requires a correction for line of sight perturbations, and it is necessary to build tools to assess populations of these lines of sight efficiently. We aim demonstrate the techniques necessary to analyze line of sight effects at a population level, and investigate whether strong lenses fall in preferably overdense environments. We analyze a set of 25 galaxy-galaxy lens lines of sight in the Strong Lensing Legacy Survey sample using standard techniques, then perform a hierarchical analysis to constrain the population-level parameters. We introduce a new statistical model for these posteriors that may provide insight into the underlying physics of the system. We find the median value of $κ_{\rm{ext}}$ in the population model to be $0.033 \pm 0.010$. The median value of $κ_{\rm{ext}}$ for the individual lens posteriors is $0.008 \pm 0.015$. Both approaches demostrate that our systems are drawn from an overdense sample. The different results from these two approaches show the importance of population models that do not multiply the effect of our priors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

General Multipoles and Their Implications for Dark Matter Inference

The flux ratios of strongly lensed quasars have previously been used to infer the properties of dark matter. In these analyses it is crucial to separate the effect of the main lensing galaxy and the low-mass dark matter halo population. In this work, we investigate flux-ratio perturbations resulting from general third- and fourth-order multipole perturbations to the main lensing galaxy's mass profile. We simulate four lens systems, each with a different lensing configuration, without multipoles. The simulated flux ratios are perturbed by 10-40 per cent by a population of low-mass haloes consistent with CDM and, in one case, also a satellite galaxy. This level of perturbation is comparable to the magnitude of flux-ratio anomalies in real data that has been previously analyzed. We then attempt to fit the simulated systems using multipoles instead of low-mass haloes. We find that multipoles with amplitudes of 0.01 or less can produce flux-ratio perturbations in excess of 40 per cent. In all cases, third- or fourth-order multipoles can individually reduce the magnitude of, if not eliminate, flux-ratio anomalies. When both multipole orders are jointly included, all simulated flux ratios can be fit to within the observational uncertainty. Our results indicate that low-mass haloes and multipoles are highly degenerate when modelling quadruply-imaged quasars based just on image positions and flux ratios. In the presence of this degeneracy, flux-ratio anomalies in lensed quasars alone cannot be used to place strong constraints on the properties of dark matter without additional information that can inform our priors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy

Strong-lensing time delays enable measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independently of other traditional methods. The main limitation to the precision of time-delay cosmography is mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD). Some of the previous TDCOSMO analyses broke the MSD by making standard assumptions about the mass density profile of the lens galaxy, reaching 2% precision from seven lenses. However, this approach could potentially bias the $H_0$ measurement or underestimate the errors. For this work, we broke the MSD for the first time using spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy in RXJ1131$-$1231 obtained from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy, in combination with previously published time delay and lens models derived from Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This approach allowed us to robustly estimate $H_0$, effectively implementing a maximally flexible mass model. Following a blind analysis, we estimated the angular diameter distance to the lens galaxy $D_{\rm d} = 865_{-81}^{+85}$ Mpc and the time-delay distance $D_{Δt} = 2180_{-271}^{+472}$ Mpc, giving $H_0 = 77.1_{-7.1}^{+7.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ - for a flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology. The error budget accounts for all uncertainties, including the MSD inherent to the lens mass profile and the line-of-sight effects, and those related to the mass-anisotropy degeneracy and projection effects. Our new measurement is in excellent agreement with those obtained in the past using standard simply parametrized mass profiles for this single system ($H_0 = 78.3^{+3.4}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) and for seven lenses ($H_0 = 74.2_{-1.6}^{+1.6}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), or for seven lenses using single-aperture kinematics and the same maximally flexible models used by us ($H_0 = 73.3^{+5.8}_{-5.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). This agreement corroborates the methodology of time-delay cosmography.

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arXiv2023

TDCOSMO XIV: Practical Techniques for Estimating External Convergence of Strong Gravitational Lens Systems and Applications to the SDSS J0924+0219 System

Time-delay cosmography uses strong gravitational lensing of a time-variable source to infer the Hubble Constant. The measurement is independent from both traditional distance ladder and CMB measurements. An accurate measurement with this technique requires considering the effects of objects along the line of sight outside the primary lens, which is quantified by the external convergence ($κ_{\rm{ext}}$). In absence of such corrections, $H_0$ will be biased towards higher values in overdense fields and lower values in underdense fields. We discuss the current state of the methods used to account for environment effects. We present a new software package built for this kind of analysis and others that can leverage large astronomical survey datasets. We apply these techniques to the SDSS J0924+0219 strong lens field. We infer the relative density of the SDSS J0924+0219 field by computing weighted number counts for all galaxies in the field, and comparing to weighted number counts computed for a large number of fields in a reference survey. We then compute weighted number counts in the Millennium Simulation and compare these results to infer the external convergence of the lens field.Results. Our results show the SDSS J0924+0219 field is a fairly typical line of sight, with median $κ_{\rm{ext}} = -0.012$ and standard deviation $σ_κ = 0.028$.

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arXiv2022

A lensed radio jet at milli-arcsecond resolution I: Bayesian comparison of parametric lens models

We investigate the mass structure of a strong gravitational lens galaxy at $z=0.350$, taking advantage of the milli-arcsecond (mas) angular resolution of very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) observations. In the first analysis of its kind at this resolution, we jointly infer the lens model parameters and pixellated radio source surface brightness. We consider several lens models of increasing complexity, starting from an elliptical power-law density profile. We extend this model to include angular multipole structures, a separate stellar mass component, additional nearby field galaxies, and/or a generic external potential. We compare these models using their relative Bayesian log-evidence (Bayes factor). We find strong evidence for angular structure in the lens; our best model is comprised of a power-law profile plus multipole perturbations and external potential, with a Bayes factor of $+14984$ relative to the elliptical power-law model. It is noteworthy that the elliptical power-law mass distribution is a remarkably good fit on its own, with additional model complexity correcting the deflection angles only at the $\sim5$ mas level. We also consider the effects of added complexity in the lens model on time-delay cosmography and flux-ratio analyses. We find that an overly simplistic power-law ellipsoid lens model can bias the measurement of $H_0$ by $\sim3$ per cent and mimic flux ratio anomalies of $\sim8$ per cent. Our results demonstrate the power of high-resolution VLBI observations to provide strong constraints on the inner density profiles of lens galaxies.

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arXiv2021

Detecting low-mass haloes with strong gravitational lensing I: the effect of data quality and lensing configuration

This paper aims to quantify how the lowest halo mass that can be detected with galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lensing depends on the quality of the observations and the characteristics of the observed lens systems. Using simulated data, we measure the lowest detectable NFW mass at each location of the lens plane, in the form of detailed \emph{sensitivity maps}. In summary, we find that: (i) the lowest detectable mass $M_{\rm low}$ decreases linearly as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increases and the sensitive area is larger when we decrease the noise; (ii) a moderate increase in angular resolution (0.07" vs 0.09") and pixel scale (0.01" vs 0.04") improves the sensitivity by on average 0.25 dex in halo mass, with more significant improvement around the most sensitive regions; (iii) the sensitivity to low-mass objects is largest for bright and complex lensed galaxies located inside the caustic curves and lensed into larger Einstein rings (i.e $r_{E}\geq1.0"$). We find that for the sensitive mock images considered in this work, the minimum mass that we can detect at the redshift of the lens lies between $1.5\times10^{8}$ and $3\times10^{9}M_{\odot}$. We derive analytic relations between $M_{\rm low}$, the SNR and resolution and discuss the impact of the lensing configuration and source structure. Our results start to fill the gap between approximate predictions and real data and demonstrate the challenging nature of calculating precise forecasts for gravitational imaging. In light of our findings, we discuss possible strategies for designing strong lensing surveys and the prospects for HST, Keck, ALMA, Euclid and other future observations.

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arXiv2021

SHARP VIII: J0924+0219 lens mass distribution and time-delay prediction through adaptive-optics imaging

Strongly lensed quasars can provide measurements of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independent of any other methods. One of the key ingredients is exquisite high-resolution imaging data, such as Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging and adaptive-optics (AO) imaging from ground-based telescopes, which provide strong constraints on the mass distribution of the lensing galaxy. In this work, we expand on the previous analysis of three time-delay lenses with AO imaging (RXJ1131-1231, HE0435-1223, and PG1115+080), and perform a joint analysis of J0924+0219 by using AO imaging from the Keck Telescope, obtained as part of the SHARP (Strong lensing at High Angular Resolution Program) AO effort, with HST imaging to constrain the mass distribution of the lensing galaxy. Under the assumption of a flat $Λ$CDM model with fixed $Ω_{\rm m}=0.3$, we show that by marginalizing over two different kinds of mass models (power-law and composite models) and their transformed mass profiles via a mass-sheet transformation, we obtain $Δt_{\rm BA}h\hatσ_{v}^{-2}=6.89\substack{+0.8\\-0.7}$ days, $Δt_{\rm CA}h\hatσ_{v}^{-2}=10.7\substack{+1.6\\-1.2}$ days, and $Δt_{\rm DA}h\hatσ_{v}^{-2}=7.70\substack{+1.0\\-0.9}$ days, where $h=H_{0}/100~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ is the dimensionless Hubble constant and $\hatσ_{v}=σ^{\rm ob}_{v}/(280~\rm km\,s^{-1})$ is the scaled dimensionless velocity dispersion. Future measurements of time delays with 10% uncertainty and velocity dispersion with 5% uncertainty would yield a $H_0$ constraint of $\sim15$% precision.

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