arXiv subjects

Christopher J. Moore

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher J. Moore.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

A weakly-parametric approach to stochastic background inference in LISA

Detecting stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs) with The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is among the mission science objectives. Disentangling SGWBs of astrophysical and cosmological origin is a challenging task, further complicated by the noise level uncertainties. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to infer upon SGWBs, taking inspiration from Gaussian stochastic processes. We investigate the suitability of the approach for signal of unknown spectral shape. We do by discretely exploring the model hyperparameters, a first step towards a more efficient transdimensional exploration. We apply the proposed method to a representative astrophysical scenario: the inference on the astrophysical foreground of Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals, recently estimated in~\cite{Pozzoli2023}. We find the algorithm to be capable of recovering the injected signal even with large priors, while simultaneously providing estimate of the noise level.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

LISA stellar-mass black hole searches with semicoherent and particle-swarm methods

This paper considers the problem of searching for quiet, long-duration and broadband gravitational wave signals, such as stellar-mass binary black hole binaries, in mock LISA data. We propose a method that combines a semi-coherent likelihood with the use of a particle swarm optimizer capable of efficiently exploring a large parameter space. The semi-coherent analysis is used to widen the peak of the likelihood distribution over parameter space, congealing secondary peaks and thereby assisting in localizing the posterior bulk. An iterative strategy is proposed, using particle swarm methods to initially explore a wide, loosely-coherent likelihood and then progressively constraining the signal to smaller regions in parameter space by increasing the level of coherence. The properties of the semi-coherent likelihood are first demonstrated using the well-studied binary neutron star signal GW170817. As a proof of concept, the method is then successfully applied to a simplified search for a stellar-mass binary black hole in zero-noise LISA data. Finally, we conclude by discussing what remains to be done to develop this into a fully-capable search and how the method might also be adapted to tackle the EMRI search problem in LISA.

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arXiv2023

Implications of pulsar timing array observations for LISA detections of massive black hole binaries

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will open complementary observational windows on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs), i.e., with masses in the range $\sim 10^6 - 10^{10}\,$ M$_{\odot}$. While PTAs may detect a stochastic gravitational-wave background from a population of MBHBs, during operation LISA will detect individual merging MBHBs. To demonstrate the profound interplay between LISA and PTAs, we estimate the number of MBHB mergers that one can expect to observe with LISA by extrapolating direct observational constraints on the MBHB merger rate inferred from PTA data. For this, we postulate that the common signal observed by PTAs (and consistent with the increased evidence recently reported) is an astrophysical background sourced by a single MBHB population. We then constrain the LISA detection rate, $\mathcal{R}$, in the mass-redshift space by combining our Bayesian-inferred merger rate with LISA's sensitivity to spin-aligned, inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms. Using an astrophysically-informed formation model, we predict a 95$\%$ upper limit on the detection rate of $\mathcal{R} < 134\,{\rm yr}^{-1}$ for binaries with total masses in the range $10^7 - 10^8\,$ M$_{\odot}$. For higher masses, i.e., $>10^8\,$ M$_{\odot}$, we find $\mathcal{R} < 2\,(1)\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ using an astrophysically-informed (agnostic) formation model, rising to $11\,(6)\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ if the LISA sensitivity bandwidth extends down to $10^{-5}$ Hz. Forecasts of LISA science potential with PTA background measurements should improve as PTAs continue their search.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic gravitational wave background from supernovae in massive scalar-tensor gravity

In massive scalar-tensor gravity, core-collapse supernovae are strong sources of scalar-polarized gravitational waves. These can be detectable out to large distance. The dispersive nature of the propagation of waves in the massive scalar field mean the gravitational wave signals are long lived and many such signals can overlap to form a stochastic background. Using different models for the population of supernova events in the nearby universe, we compute predictions for the energy-density in the stochastic scalar-polarized gravitational wave background from core-collapse events in massive scalar-tensor gravity for theory parameters that facilitate strong scalarization. The resulting energy density is below the current constraints on a Gaussian stochastic gravitational wave background but large enough to be detectable with the current generation of detectors when they reach design sensitivity, indicating that it will soon be possible to place new constraints on the parameter space of massive scalar-tensor gravity.

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arXiv2023

Identifying LISA verification binaries among the Galactic population of double white dwarfs

Double white dwarfs (DWDs) will be the most numerous gravitational-wave (GW) sources for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Most of the Galactic DWDs will be unresolved and will superpose to form a confusion noise foreground, the dominant LISA noise source around $\sim 0.5\mathrm{-}3\,\mathrm{mHz}$. A small fraction of these sources will stand out from the background and be individually detectable. Uniquely among GW sources, a handful of these binaries will be known in advance from electromagnetic (EM) observations and will be guaranteed sources of detectable GWs in the LISA band; these are known as verification binaries (VBs). High-cadence photometric surveys are continuously discovering new VB systems, and their number will continue to grow ahead of the launch of LISA. We analyse, in a fully Bayesian framework, all the currently known VB candidates with the latest design requirements for the LISA mission and find that 25 of the considered sources can be detected within a $4\,\mathrm{yr}$ observation time. We explore what can be expected from GW observations, both alone and in combination with EM observations, and estimate the VB's time to detection in the early months of LISA operations. We also show how VBs can be analysed in the case where their GW signals compete with many other unknown binary signals (both resolved and unresolved) from a realistic Galactic population of DWDs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

On the LISA science performance in observations of short-lived signals from massive black hole binary coalescences

The observation of massive black hole binary systems is one of the main science objectives of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The instrument's design requirements have recently been revised: they set a requirement at $0.1\,\mathrm{mHz}$, with no additional explicit requirements at lower frequencies. This has implications for observations of the short-lived signals produced by the coalescence of massive and high-redshift binaries. Here we consider the most pessimistic scenario: the (unlikely) case in which LISA has no sensitivity below $0.1\,\mathrm{mHz}$. We show that the presence of higher multipoles (beyond the dominant $\ell = |m| = 2$ mode) in the gravitational radiation from these systems, which will be detectable with a total signal-to-noise ratio $\sim 10^3$, allows LISA to retain the capability to accurately measure the physical parameters, the redshift, and to constrain the sky location. To illustrate this point, we consider a few select binaries in a total (redshifted) mass range of $4 \times10^6 - 4 \times 10^7\,M_\odot$ whose ($\ell = |m| = 2$) gravitational-wave signals last between $\approx 12$ hours and $\approx 20$ days in band. We model the emitted gravitational radiation using the highly accurate (spin-aligned) waveform approximant IMRPhenomXHM and carry out a fully coherent Bayesian analysis on the LISA noise-orthogonal time-delay-interferometry channels.

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arXiv2022

Searching for a Ringdown Overtone in GW150914

We reanalyze the GW150914 post-merger data searching for quasinormal modes beyond the fundamental, quadrupolar mode. There is currently an ongoing disagreement in the literature about whether, and to what extent, the data contains evidence for a quasinormal mode overtone. We use a frequency-domain approach to ringdown data analysis that was recently proposed by the authors. Our analysis has several advantages compared to other analyses performed mainly in the time domain; in particular, the source sky position and the ringdown start time are marginalized over (as opposed to simply being fixed) as part of a Bayesian ringdown analysis. We find tentative evidence for an overtone in GW150914, but at a lower significance than reported elsewhere. Our preferred analysis, marginalizing over the uncertainty in the time of peak strain amplitude, gives a posterior on the overtone amplitude peaked away from zero at $\sim 1.8σ$.

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arXiv2022

The last three years: multiband gravitational-wave observations of stellar-mass binary black holes

Understanding the formation and evolution of the stellar-mass binary black holes discovered by LIGO and Virgo is a challenge that spans many areas of astrophysics, from stellar evolution, dynamics and accretion disks, to possible exotic early universe processes. Over the final years of their lives, stellar-mass binaries radiate gravitational waves that are first observable by space-based detectors (such as LISA) and then ground-based instruments (such as LIGO, Virgo and the next generation observatories Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope). Using state-of-the-art waveform models and parameter-estimation pipelines for both ground- and space-based observations, we show that (the expected handful of) these multiband observations will allow at least percent-level measurements of all 17 parameters that describe the binary, the possible identification of a likely host galaxy, and the forewarning of the merger days in advance allowing telescopes at multiple wavelengths to search for any electromagnetic signature associated to it. Multiband sources will therefore be a gold mine for astrophysics, but we also show that they could be less useful as laboratories for fundamental tests of general relativity than has been previously suggested.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Frequency-Domain Analysis of Black-Hole Ringdowns

We propose a novel, frequency-domain approach to the analysis of the gravitational-wave ringdown signal of binary black holes and the identification of quasinormal mode frequencies of the remnant. Our approach avoids the issues of spectral leakage that would normally be expected (associated with the abrupt start of the ringdown) by modeling the inspiral and merger parts of the signal using a flexible sum of sine-Gaussian wavelets truncated at the onset of the ringdown. Performing the analysis in the frequency domain allows us to use standard (and by now well-established) Bayesian inference pipelines for gravitational wave data as well as giving us the ability to readily search over the sky position and the ringdown start time, although we find that it is necessary to use an informative prior for the latter. We test our method by using it to analyze several simulated signals with varying signal-to-noise ratios injected into two- and three-detector networks. We find that our frequency-domain approach is generally able to place tighter constraints on the remnant black-hole mass and spin than a standard time-domain analysis.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian parameter estimation of stellar-mass black-hole binaries with LISA

We present a Bayesian parameter-estimation pipeline to measure the properties of inspiralling stellar-mass black hole binaries with LISA. Our strategy (i) is based on the coherent analysis of the three noise-orthogonal LISA data streams, (ii) employs accurate and computationally efficient post-Newtonian waveforms accounting for both spin-precession and orbital eccentricity, and (iii) relies on a nested sampling algorithm for the computation of model evidences and posterior probability density functions of the full 17 parameters describing a binary. We demonstrate the performance of this approach by analyzing the LISA Data Challenge (LDC-1) dataset, consisting of 66 quasi-circular, spin-aligned binaries with signal-to-noise ratios ranging from 3 to 14 and times to merger ranging from 3000 to 2 years. We recover 22 binaries with signal-to-noise ratio higher than 8. Their chirp masses are typically measured to better than $0.02 M_\odot$ at $90\%$ confidence, while the sky-location accuracy ranges from 1 to 100 square degrees. The mass ratio and the spin parameters can only be constrained for sources that merge during the mission lifetime. In addition, we report on the successful recovery of an eccentric, spin-precessing source at signal-to-noise ratio 15 for which we can measure an eccentricity of $3\times 10^{-3}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Population-informed priors in gravitational-wave astronomy

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population. This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable marginalization of an underlying hierarchical Bayesian model which consistently accounts for selection effects. Our formalism naturally leads to the presence of "leave-one-out" distributions which include subsets of events. This differs from other approximations, also known as empirical Bayes methods, which effectively double count one or more events. We design a double-reweighting post-processing strategy that uses only existing data products to reconstruct the resulting population-informed posterior distributions. Although the correction we highlight is an important conceptual point, we find it has a limited impact on the current catalog of gravitational-wave events. Our approach further allows us to study, for the first time in the gravitational-wave literature, correlations between the parameters of individual events and those of the population.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Ultra-low frequency gravitational waves from cosmological and astrophysical processes

Gravitational waves (GWs) at ultra-low frequencies (${\lesssim 100\,\mathrm{nHz}}$) are key to understanding the assembly and evolution of astrophysical black hole (BH) binaries with masses $\sim 10^{6}-10^{9}\,M_\odot$ at low redshifts. These GWs also offer a unique window into a wide variety of cosmological processes. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are beginning to measure this stochastic signal at $\sim 1-100\,\mathrm{nHz}$ and the combination of data from several arrays is expected to confirm a detection in the next few years. The dominant physical processes generating gravitational radiation at $\mathrm{nHz}$ frequencies are still uncertain. PTA observations alone are currently unable to distinguish a binary BH astrophysical foreground from a cosmological background due to, say, a first order phase transition at a temperature $\sim 1-100\,\mathrm{MeV}$ in a weakly-interacting dark sector. This letter explores the extent to which incorporating integrated bounds on the ultra-low frequency GW spectrum from any combination of cosmic microwave background, big bang nucleosynethesis or astrometric observations can help to break this degeneracy.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Testing general relativity with gravitational-wave catalogs: the insidious nature of waveform systematics

Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes allow new tests of general relativity to be performed on strong, dynamical gravitational fields. These tests require accurate waveform models of the gravitational-wave signal, otherwise waveform errors can erroneously suggest evidence for new physics. Existing waveforms are generally thought to be accurate enough for current observations, and each of the events observed to date appears to be individually consistent with general relativity. In the near future, with larger gravitational-wave catalogs, it will be possible to perform more stringent tests of gravity by analyzing large numbers of events together. However, there is a danger that waveform errors can accumulate among events: even if the waveform model is accurate enough for each individual event, it can still yield erroneous evidence for new physics when applied to a large catalog. This paper presents a simple linearised analysis, in the style of a Fisher matrix calculation, that reveals the conditions under which the apparent evidence for new physics due to waveform errors grows as the catalog size increases. We estimate that, in the worst-case scenario, evidence for a deviation from general relativity might appear in some tests using a catalog containing as few as 10-30 events above a signal-to-noise ratio of 20. This is close to the size of current catalogs and highlights the need for caution when performing these sorts of experiments.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

Modelling the Ringdown from Precessing Black Hole Binaries

Modelling the end point of binary black hole mergers is a cornerstone of modern gravitational-wave astronomy. Extracting multiple quasinormal mode frequencies from the ringdown signal allows the remnant black hole to be studied in unprecedented detail. Previous studies on numerical relativity simulations of aligned-spin binaries have found that it is possible to start the ringdown analysis much earlier than previously thought if overtones (and possibly mirror modes) are included. This increases the signal-to-noise ratio in the ringdown making identification of subdominant modes easier. In this paper we study, for the first time, black hole binaries with misaligned spins and find a much greater variation in the performance of ringdown fits than in the aligned-spin case. The inclusion of mirror modes and higher harmonics, along with overtones, improves the reliability of ringdown fits with an early start time; however, there remain cases with poor performing fits. While using overtones in conjunction with an early ringdown start time is an enticing possibility, it is necessary to proceed with caution. We also consider for the first time the use of numerical relativity surrogate models in this type of quasinormal mode study and address important questions of accuracy in the underlying numerical waveforms used for the fit.

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arXiv2021

Weighing Milky Way Satellites with LISA

White dwarf stars are a well-established tool for studying Galactic stellar populations. Two white dwarfs in a tight binary system offer us an additional messenger - gravitational waves - for exploring the Milky Way and its immediate surroundings. Gravitational waves produced by double white dwarf (DWD) binaries can be detected by the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Numerous and widespread DWDs have the potential to probe shapes, masses and formation histories of the stellar populations in the Galactic neighbourhood. In this work we outline a method for estimating the total stellar mass of Milky Way satellite galaxies based on the number of DWDs detected by LISA. To constrain the mass we perform a Bayesian inference using binary population synthesis models and considering the number of detected DWDs associated with the satellite and the measured distance to the satellite as the only inputs. Using a fiducial binary population synthesis model we find that for large satellites the stellar masses can be recovered to within 1) a factor two if the star formation history is known and 2) an order of magnitude when marginalising over different star formation history models. For smaller satellites we can place upper limits on their stellar mass. Gravitational wave observations can provide mass measurements for large satellites that are comparable, and in some cases more precise, than standard electromagnetic observations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Constraining the lensing of binary neutron stars from their stochastic background

Gravitational wave (GW) transients from binary neutron star (BNS) coalescences can, in principle, be subject to gravitational lensing thereby increasing the amplitude and signal-to-noise ratio. We estimate the rate of lensed BNS events resolvable by LIGO and Virgo and find that it is constrained by the current non-detection of a stochastic GW background. Following closely the formalism we developed (10.1103/PhysRevLett.125.141102) in the context of binary black hole lensing, we show that at current sensitivities the fraction of BNS coalescences with lensing magnifications $μ> 1.02$ is less than $\sim 7\times 10^{-8}$ and therefore such events should not be expected in the near future. We also make predictions for projected future sensitivities.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Constraining the lensing of binary black holes from their stochastic background

Gravitational waves (GWs) are subject to gravitational lensing in the same way as electromagnetic radiation. However, to date, no unequivocal observation of a lensed GW transient has been reported. Independently, GW observatories continue to search for the stochastic GW signal which is produced by many transient events at high redshift. We exploit a surprising connection between the lensing of individual transients and limits to the background radiation produced by the unresolved population of binary back hole mergers: we show that it constrains the fraction of individually resolvable lensed binary black holes to less than $\sim 4\times 10^{-5}$ at present sensitivity. We clarify the interpretation of existing, low redshift GW observations (obtained assuming no lensing) in terms of their apparent lensed redshifts and masses and explore constraints from GW observatories at future sensitivity. Based on our results, recent claims of observations of lensed events are statistically disfavoured.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Core collapse in massive scalar-tensor gravity

This paper provides an extended exploration of the inverse-chirp gravitational-wave signals from stellar collapse in massive scalar-tensor gravity reported in [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 119}, 201103]. We systematically explore the parameter space that characterizes the progenitor stars, the equation of state and the scalar-tensor theory of the core collapse events. We identify a remarkably simple and straightforward classification scheme of the resulting collapse events. For any given set of parameters, the collapse leads to one of three end states, a weakly scalarized neutron star, a strongly scalarized neutron star or a black hole, possibly formed in multiple stages. The latter two end states can lead to strong gravitational-wave signals that may be detectable in present continuous-wave searches with ground-based detectors. We identify a very sharp boundary in the parameter space that separates events with strong gravitational-wave emission from those with negligible radiation.

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